Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Wake Up! Time is not on Taiwan's Side

Wake Up! Time is not on Taiwan's Side
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 1, 2015


Executive Summary: The US Congress has just passed the Trade Promotion Authority Act (TPA), authorizing the president to negotiate and sign trade agreements with other governments. Congress must vote before the deadline. It may not modify the content of the bill. The bill will faciliate Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations. Meanwhile, two years have passed since the signing of the STA, yet it remains mired in the Legislative Yuan. No one knows when it will be approved. The legislature recently amended the Treaties Law. Future executive branch treaties with other governments, including FTAs, must be approved by the Legislative Yuan before, during and after negotiations. This is absurd. Legislative Yuan inefficiency and "scorched earth" ruling vs. opposition party struggles will keep bills pertaining to national policy in limbo indefinitely.

Full Text Below:

The US Congress has just passed the Trade Promotion Authority Act (TPA), authorizing the president to negotiate and sign trade agreements with other governments. Congress must vote before the deadline. It may not modify the content of the bill. The bill will faciliate Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations. Meanwhile, two years have passed since the signing of the STA, yet it remains mired in the Legislative Yuan. No one knows when it will be approved. The legislature recently amended the Treaties Law. Future executive branch treaties with other governments, including FTAs, must be approved by the Legislative Yuan before, during and after negotiations. This is absurd. Legislative Yuan inefficiency and "scorched earth" ruling vs. opposition party struggles will keep bills pertaining to national policy in limbo indefinitely.

The US Trade Promotion Authority Act shows that timing in foreign trade negotiations is critical. Congress knew it must allow the executive branch to seize the initiative, therefore it set politics aside. Now that the TPA has been passed, we hope the White House can complete TPP negotiations in a timely manner. We hope the Mainland sponsored AIIB can begin operation this year.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs says TPP negotiations will probably conclude within the year, The ROC government will attempt to be part of the second round of negotiations. The problem is we have no global plan or timetable. The green camp has a siege mentality. Green camp obstructionism has made even FEPZs impossible. The green camp refuses to consider even approve limited test cases. The TPP mandates a high degree of openess. Are we are ready for that? The STA remains mired in the Legislative Yuan. Anti-Mainland sentiment on Taiwan continues to build. Taiwan is eager to join the TPP and become part of the US effort to contain Mainland China. This is a slap in Beijing's face. How is Beijing supposed to react to this? Will such actions really help Taiwan join the TPP?

Mainland China and the US, the world's two largest economies, are rapidly achieving regional integration. Taiwan is economically dependent on international trade. It must participate in regional economic integration and globalization. Given Taiwan's plight, we need a viable plan and timetable. Otherwise our time and energy will be squandered. We will be immobilized. We will lose opportunities. Some say Taiwan cannot set its own timetable. Even when it signs FTAs ahead of others, it must wait for the other party to sign with Beijing. Only then will it be Taiwan's turn.

That is why Taiwan must consider the Mainland factor, and the Mainland's timetable. When signing agreements such as FTAs, the RCEP, the TPP, the MTA, and the STA, Taiwan must establish timetables that result in the least hindrance. This requires direction and strategy. This requires step by step implementation that ensures against lost opportunities. Yet we live as if time has no meaning. We sign agreements, two years elapse, and we act as if nothing is wrong. We have no idea when matters will be resolved. The chance to become part of the TPP has arrived. Yet we oppose the STA, hate the Mainland, and fear economic liberalization. Given such attitudes, how can we possibly join the TPP? Given such attitudes, any attempts to become part of the regional economy are likely to fail.

Divergent definitions of identity have set political parties at each other's throats. Peoples' sense of national identity has become blurred. The nation lacks both short and long term goals. It lacks a strategy worthy of the name. It lacks any concept of time. It has failed to do its duty. It has failed to track global currents. For example, South Korea and Australia have signed an FTA. Yet we remain oblivious to its significance. We sit on our hands and wait for the waves to hit us.

Consider another example. Beijing has established two "Century Targets". Target One. The year 2020 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. By then, the CCP wants a "moderately prosperous" society for one billion people. Target Two. The year 2049 will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. By then, the CCP wants a prosperous, democratic, civilized, harmonious, modern, and totally reunified socialist nation. The Chinese Communist Party intends to reunify the nation by the PRC's 100th anniversary. Yet we remain utterly oblivious. We think nothing of it. Politicians see only short term election advantage. They care only about election outcomes. They lack any large scale vision or long term perspective. They remain indiferrent to Mainland China's rise and changes in global circumstances. This is what ails Taiwan. This is vastly more worrisome than whether Taiwan is able to join the TPP.

Some may scoff at the CCP timetable for complete4 reunification. They say the CCP is dreaming. They say the Mainland will implode long before that happens. Some say the CCP is merely trying to frighten Taiwan, that it is all talk and no action. Some say the cat is already out of the bag. They use such claims to incite anti-China hatred. Some say it is too early to tell. The future is unpredictable. One must live life one day at a time.  We will cross those bridges when we get to them.

Poor mouthing the CCP and adopting an ostrich, head in the sand mentality, is not conducive to our health. Like it or not, this is the most important issue facing Taiwan. Any responses or countermeasures must be serious, rational, calm, and pragmatic. The fact is Taiwan independence is a dead end. Maintaining the status quo is also infeasible. Defending our sovereignty requires more than empty talk.

Time is not on Taiwan's side. We must take action, set goals, and reach out to the other side, in search of a win-win outcome. Only that is consistent with the interests of 23 million people on Taiwan and 1.3 billion people on the Mainland. What are we fighting for? The upcoming presidential election should give us the answer. We can no longer afford to drag out feet. This is more important than anything else.

醒醒吧 時間不在台灣這邊
2015-7-1 中國時報

美國國會通過《貿易促進授權法案》(TPA),授權總統與他國進行貿易談判並簽署協議,國會必須在限期內包裹表決,不得修改內容,這對《跨太平洋夥伴協定》(TPP)談判是一大助力。對照《兩岸服務貿易協議》簽署滿兩年,至今卡在立法院,准否表決遙遙無期,加上立法院日前修正《締約法》,強制性規定行政部門未來與他國談判條約,包括FTA在內,必須經立法院事前、事中與事後三階段同意,簡直全無章法,以立法院議事效率的低落,及朝野的焦土抗爭,可以斷言國家重大政策法案都將陷入沒有時間表狀態。

從美國的《貿易促進授權法案》我們看到,對外貿易談判時間因素的掌握非常重要,國會必須給行政部門足夠的授權,才能掌握先機,因而國會願意暫時拋開政黨立場,及時通過TPA法案,希望白宮能及時完成TPP談判,與大陸主導、今年可能展開運作的亞投行互別苗頭。

經濟部國貿局表示,TPP很有可能在年內談成,我國將把握機會爭取加入第2輪談判。問題是,我們有沒有全球化的路徑規畫與時間座標概念?在綠營鎖國心態杯葛下,連自由經濟示範區都不敢開,局部試驗都不敢接受,TPP卻是高門檻大幅度開放的協議,我們做好準備了嗎?《兩岸服務貿易協議》已卡死在立院,反中情緒在延燒,台灣卻又趕著要加入TPP走進美國圍堵中國的布局,這豈不是打臉北京,叫北京情何以堪?這樣搞,台灣進得了TPP嗎?

中美兩個全球最大經濟體都在快速推進區域整合,台灣經濟依賴國際貿易,必須參與區域經濟或全球化,但以台灣的處境,必須要有一套可行的路徑規畫及時間座標,才不會事倍功半,甚至寸步難行,錯失機遇。或許有人會抱怨,台灣根本不可能設定自己的時間座標,對外洽簽FTA即使辛苦搶先談成,也要苦苦等待對方和北京簽了之後,才可能輪到台灣。

由這裡我們可以體會到,台灣很多作為不能不考慮大陸因素及大陸的時間座標,對外洽簽FTARCEP(《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》)、TPP、《兩岸貨貿》及通過《兩岸服貿》,時間座標次序該如何設定,阻礙才會最小?這需要方向感和謀略,依時間表按部就班執行,才不致錯失機遇。現在這種「山中無歲月」般過日子,簽成的協議可以一擺兩年若無其事,且不知將伊於胡底,TPP的機遇雖然來了,我們卻還陷在反《兩岸服貿協議》的仇中氛圍及害怕對外開放的心態下,如此能及時抓住TPP的機會嗎?加入區域經濟恐怕最後會多頭落空。

政黨因認同歧異而陷入惡鬥,國家方向感愈來愈模糊,近程沒目標,遠程沒方向,也就沒有謀略可言,施政更看不出短中長期的規畫,沒有時間概念,該做的事一再蹉跎,該關注的外界動向掉以輕心。比如中韓及中澳簽署FTA,我們無感,等衝擊排山倒海而來再說。

又如中共已設定「兩個一百年」奮鬥目標,一是到2020年,即中國共產黨成立100年時,全面建成惠及十幾億人口的小康社會;二是到中華人民共和國成立100周年(2049年)時,建成富強民主文明和諧的社會主義現代化國家,完成國家的統一。對於中共要在建國百年完成統一的奮鬥目標,我們也是無感,不當一回事,台灣社會麻木程度令人匪夷所思。政治人物眼中只有當下的選舉,只計較選舉勝負,卻沒有宏觀的視野及長遠的目光,對於中國的崛起及國際形勢的變化,漠不關心,這是台灣危機所在,比進不進得了TPP,更令人憂心。

對於中共要在建國百年完成統一目標,有人或許會嗤之以鼻,認為中共在做白日夢,因為在此之前中國就崩潰了;有人或許會認為這是在嚇唬台灣老百姓,說說而已,做不到的;有人或許會批狐狸尾巴露出來了吧,藉此搧風點火操作恐中仇中情結;也有人或許會認為來日方長,世事難料,過一天算一天吧,船到橋頭自然直而不願面對。

唱衰或反嗆中共、鴕鳥心態,都不是健康的態度。不管高不高興,這是台灣要面對的最重大課題,應該嚴肅、理性、冷靜、務實、認真思考因應對策,現在就要未雨綢繆。事實很清楚,台獨是一條死胡同,維持現狀顯然不可行,捍衛主權不能只憑一句空話。

時間不在台灣這邊,應要有其他積極作為,定下奮鬥目標,爭取和對岸達成雙贏,才符合台灣兩千三百萬人及大陸13億人的利益。我們的奮鬥目標是什麼,這次總統大選應凝聚出答案,不能再蹉跎,這比什麼都重要。

Monday, June 29, 2015

We Must Do Our Utmost to Save Every Burn Victim

We Must Do Our Utmost to Save Every Burn Victim
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 30, 2015


Executive Summary: Rescue efforts for Formosa Water Park burn victims have entered a critical phase. This is the most serious incident of its type in Taiwan's history.  Not only were a large number of people burned, most victims suffered burns over large areas of their body. Skin grafts will be required. Medical institutions have sent skin graft material from the south of Taiwan to the north. But the quantities may not be sufficient. The government and hospitals must set up emergency dispatch and support stations. They must ensure that hospitals have everything they need. They must ensure that experts provide the best medical advice for every patient.

Full Text Below:
     
Rescue efforts for Formosa Water Park burn victims have entered a critical phase. This is the most serious incident of its type in Taiwan's history.  Not only were a large number of people burned, most victims suffered burns over large areas of their body. Skin grafts will be required. Medical institutions have sent skin graft material from the south of Taiwan to the north. But the quantities may not be sufficient. The government and hospitals must set up emergency dispatch and support stations. They must ensure that hospitals have everything they need. They must ensure that experts provide the best medical advice for every patient.

Organizers of the rave created visual effects using colored mists. But within minutes the mist ignited in a huge fireball that enveloped 500 people and resulted in a terrible tragedy. The number of victims made it comparable to a terrorist attack. Yet this horrific tragedy occurred during a "Color Party" at a water park.

This is a matter of public safety. No one should exploit it for personal gain. But one fact is deeply disturbing. The rave, held at the Formosa Water Park, was billed as "Asia's biggest color party ever". Yet the organizers showed scant concern for safety. They lacked all common sense. High concentrations of colored powder can result in dust explosions. Experts warned about this two years ago. But the company that organized the rave only wanted to talk about "creativity" and "atmosphere". They cared only about having the biggest and the best visual effects. They cared nothing about the consequences. Later, when prosecutors visited the disaster site, they found 10 cigarette lighters and 40 cigarette butts. Yet event organizer Lu Chung-chi never warned either the staff or the audience not to smoke. Releasing the colored powder into the crowd under these conditions was like pointing a flamethrower at the audience. Lu Chung-chi thought nothing of mixing dust and cigarettes. How could the part-time student hired to turn the switch know he would precipitate such a horrendous calamity?

Five hundred people were severely burned. So many that newspapers were unable to list all the casualties. This however has not diminished peoples' pain. The burn victims were mostly young people in their twenties and thirties. A dozen or more were in their teens. Another dozen or more were foreigners or visitors from abroad. Many had just been swimming. They stood in front of the stage watching the performance in their swimwear. They were burned the instant the dust ignited, suffering severe burns over 80 to 90% of their bodies. Almost no skin remained. Relatives and friends have spoken to the media or commented on facebook. They are concerned about the severe burns to the victims bodies. They are even more concerned about their physical appearance and psychological trauma afterwards.

This incident was unique in both nature and scale. Therefore the government must set aside all considerations of cost. It must allocate funds or raise funds among the public. It must provide victims with the best treatment available and psychological counseling. It must not allow overloaded and under-staffed hospitals to be overwhelmed. The government must provide administrative support and legal assistance to the victims and their families. It must not treat this event as an ordinary civil dispute or playground accident. The victims are in pain. Yet they must engage in a tug of war with the Formosa Water Park, the Color Play Company, and the insurance companies, That truly will be torture.

During this dust explosion incident, many audience members swung into action. That night, many physicians returned to hospitals to provide emergency medical treatment. Hospitals arranged for the shipment of skin graft material from the south of Taiwan to the north. The following day people donated blood. The Ministry of Health and Welfare established a unified consultation window. They showed that they had a heart and warm blood in their veins. Five hundred burn victims were sent to thirty or forty different hospitals. Their condition must be monitored and publicized. The outside world must be informed about how the situation is progressing. If blood drives or donations are required, people need to know how they can contribute.

Last week, Lin Hui-wen, the policewoman burned in the Kaohsiung gas explosion incident, shared her feelings upon returning to active life. Lin suffered burns over 28% of her body. She underwent painful rehabilitation. She now has a more open outlook on life. She hoped that people would not have to replace half the skin on their bodies before learning that the most important thing is to love oneself. Her remarks were a sober reminder. The singer Selina was burned over 54% of her body during a film shoot. After 1000 days of treatment and patient reconstruction, she reemerged into the sunlight, providing Taiwan with a story of courage. These stories may help the Formosa Water Park burn victims and their families to retain their optimism, to continue fighting, and to refuse to let an accident defeat them in life.

The dust explosion caused by the Color Party company was an inexcusable man-made disaster. But our more immediate concern is how to help these 500 young burn victims so that they can survive the crisis and find a new lease on life.

聯合/傾盡每一分力量,搶救每一名傷者
2015-06-30 02:11:57 聯合報 聯合報社論 
       
八仙樂園燒傷患者的搶救,進入了關鍵時刻。這個台灣史上首見的大規模燒傷事件,不僅傷者人數眾多,且多為大面積燒傷,必須進行皮膚移植;醫療院所雖已發動「南皮北送」,恐仍不敷使用。此刻,政府和醫療部門應成立緊急調度及支援平台,除確保各救治醫院所需的醫療資源供應無虞,也應由資深專家提供最有效的醫療諮詢,協助每一名傷者得到最好的治療。

一場大型晚會活動,只因主辦者施放彩色粉霧製造效果,短短幾分鐘內的大意,造成五百名民眾遭烈焰灼身,實在是可怕的悲劇。如此嚴重的受害規模,和一場恐怖攻擊已無兩樣,而這卻是發生在一家「水上樂園」所舉行的「彩色派對」晚會上,令人難以想像!

公共安全的維護,不容片刻心存徼幸;但令人扼腕的是,八仙樂園內這場號稱「亞洲最大」的彩色派對,對安全防護卻絲毫沒有戒備,甚至沒有一點基本常識。高密度彩色粉末可能引起粉塵爆炸,是專家兩年前即警告過的事;但主辦的「玩色創意」公司卻只顧強調「創意」、凸顯「氣氛」,只顧著把彩粉噴到最多、最強,完全不考慮其他後果。事後檢方重回災難現場,在地上發現了十個打火機、四十根菸蒂,而主辦人呂忠吉卻稱沒有交代工作人員或現場觀眾不能抽菸。以這樣的現場條件,當「機槍手」發動機器將彩粉噴向台下的觀眾時,恐怕已形同拿著火焰筒向觀眾發射。試想,如果呂忠吉對抽菸可能引爆粉塵渾然不以為意,那麼臨時代班的「機槍手」工讀生又哪裡知道自己會闖下滔天大禍?

這次五百人慘遭灼傷的事件,人數多到媒體無法將傷患名單一一刊登在報紙上,但這卻無法稍減人們心裡的遺憾。事實是,這些燒傷的受害者,大多數是二、三十歲的年輕人,或者十來歲的青少年,其中還包括十多名外籍和境外人士。許多人當時剛游過泳,因而身著泳裝站在舞台前方觀看表演,一遇粉塵爆炸便首當其衝瞬間著火,多人遭到八、九成的燒傷,幾乎體無完膚。從其親友在媒體或臉書的泣訴,他們除了身體慘遭灼炙,更令人擔心的,是他們癒後的容貌變化及日後的心理創傷。

也正因為這起事件的特殊性質及龐大規模,我們認為,政府有必要擔起責任,排除一切成本考量,不吝編列經費或公開募款,為受害者提供最佳的治療及心理輔導,更不能讓負荷過重又資源不足的醫院在那裡窮於應付。同時,政府也應該提供適當的行政支持及法律協助,協助受害者或家屬組織起來;而不能將此事件當成一起普通的民間遊樂場所意外糾紛,讓眾多受害者在傷痛中還要面對八仙樂園、玩色創意與保險公司的推拖拉,那才是可怕的人性折磨。

回顧這起塵爆事件,從災難現場觀眾的自發救護,到當夜送醫高峰時許多醫師主動返院參與急救,乃至醫療機構調度「南皮北送」的行動,或者次日許多民眾主動前往捐血,包括衛福部成立統一諮詢窗口,都顯示了一個溫暖社會民胞物與的熱血和條理。然而,五百名傷者散置三、四十家醫院,他們的病情和動向如何,相關部門必須持續追蹤並對外公布,才能讓外界了解事態的進展;萬一有需要發動捐血、捐款,民眾才知道自己能如何奉獻。

上周,高雄氣爆中受傷的女警林惠雯發表自己重拾陽光的感想,全身廿八%燒傷的她,歷經艱辛的復健之路,而有了更豁達的人生觀。她說,經歷這場劫難,「希望其他人不用換去身上大半的皮膚,才知道愛自己很重要」;此話,真是一記當頭棒喝。歌手Selina當年拍片時被火燒傷,面積高達五十四%,經過一千多天的治療及耐心重建,她陽光復出,為台灣留下一頁美麗與勇敢的故事。這些故事,都有助於鼓舞八仙樂園的傷者及家屬,激勵他們保持樂觀、保持鬥志,不要讓自己的人生輸給一場意外。

彩色派對引發粉塵爆炸,是不可原諒的人禍。然而,眼前更值得關注的,是如何全力搶救這五百名遭到火劫的年輕人,讓他們能安然度過危機,而能劫後重生。
 

Sunday, June 28, 2015

Further Evolution in One China, Different Interpretations

Further Evolution in One China, Different Interpretations
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 29, 2015


Executive Summary: One China, Same Intepretation, is not opposed to One China, Different Interprations. It is an evolution of One China, Different Interpretations. It is a more logical and intuitive understanding of the cross-Strait relationship. Hung Hsiu-chu quoted the late President Chiang Ching, who said, "The times are changing, the environment is changing, the trends are changing," The KMT must not cling to One China, Different Interpretations. The time for that is past. The 1992 Consensus helped the KMT win the presidency, twice. The time however, has come for an upgrade.

Full Text Below:

President Ma Ying-jeou used the 1992 Consensus and One China, Different Interpretations to establish a "no [immediate] reunification, no Taiwan independence, and no use of force" cross-Strait framework. Over the past seven years, this has enabled the KMT government to make cross-Strait relations more peaceful than they have ever been. That said, changes have taken place inside and outside Taiwan. Mainland China's global influence has increased. The low-hanging fruit in cross-Strait relations has already been picked. The problems that remain are harder to solve. One China, Different Interpretations has reached the end of its useful life. It is no longer adequate for policy planning and implementation. Hung Hsiu-chu has made One China, Same Interpretation and a Cross-Strait Peace Agreement the theme of her 2016 KMT presidential campaign. This is an advancement over One China, Different Interpretations. If voters approve, and Hung is elected, cross-Strait relations will be stabilized, and long term peace will be assured.

The key to cross-Strait relations is the dispute over One China. Since 1949, the two sides have been separately governed. The dispute has been over who represents China as a whole. During the Cold War, Taipei's position was "good and evil cannot coexist". During the Lee Teng-hui era, cross-Strait exchanges began. Initially One China, Different Interpretations addressed the question of who represented China as a whole. Later, when Lee moved toward separatism, his Two States Theory relinquished claims to represent China as a whole.

During Chen Shui-bian's eight years in power the key was One Country on Each Side. Relations between the two sides reached new lows. In 2008, when Ma Ying-jeou came to office, the 1992 Consensus and One China, Different Interpretations enabled Taipei and Beijing to reach agreements and begin large scale cross-Strait exchanges.

One China, Different Interpretations served a useful historic purpose. But 172 countries around the world have diplomatic relations with Beijing, Only 22 have diplomatic relations with Taipei. Beijing has vastly more global political influence than Taipei. In the long run, One China, Different Interpretations is clearly unfavorable to Taipei. Besides, most countries accept the premise that "One China equals the People's Republic of China". We say tha the "One China" in One China, Different Interpretations means the Republic of China. But most people on Taiwan dismiss this as KMT self-delusion. Online commentary is rife with younger generation mockery. "So the other side is the ROC?, is it?" "The rest of the world considers One China to be the PRC, does it not?", "Does the Kuomintang dare make this claim on the Mainland?" "Let the CCP first recognize the ROC".

Such mockery is consistent with peoples' intuition. The Mainland has long monopolized the claim to represent China as a whole. It has limited Taiwan's participation in international activities. Claiming that "One China equals the ROC" leaves one vulnerable to youthful mockery about Ah Q. As a result, many people on Taiwan perceive "China" as opposed to "Taiwan". They perceive favoring China and being pro-China as "selling out Taiwan."

In realpolitik terms, One China, Different Interpretations is no longer enough in cross-Strait political relations. It is detrimental to the future of Taiwan. It weakens identification with the Mainland among the Taiwan public. The 1992 Consensus clearly needs an update. Hung Hsiu-chu champions One China, Same Interpretation. Specifically, this means that both sides of the Strait are part of China as a whole. Their declared sovereignty overlaps. But their constitutional rule and legal jurisdiction remain separate.

In plain language, the two sides are two constitutionally-based governments within China as a whole. Cross-Strait relations are neither international relations, nor domestic relations. They are domestic relations within China as a whole. 

One China, Same Interpretation, is clear and reasonable. It is an evolution of One China, Different Interpretations, rather than a repudiation of it. It can ensure peace and stability in cross-Strait relations. It can resolve public confusion over national identity. One China, Same Interpretation provides an answer to online skepticism over One China, Different Interpretations. It also responds to questions such as "What the highest peak in China as a whole?" The answer is "The Himalayas have the highest peaks in China as a whole. The highest peak in the region under ROC government jurisdiction on the other hand, is Yushan. By the same token, the art treasures in the National Palace Museum belong to China as a whole. They are the shared property of both Taipei and Beijing. But the National Palace Museum in Taipei is under the jurisdiction of the Taipei government. The 's Forbidden City in Beijing meanwhile, is under the jurisdiction of the Beijing government.

One China, Same Interpretation is consistent with people's gut level understanding. It alone can make the KMT's cross-Strait rhetoric convincing. It alone can enable Hung Hsiu-chu to champion her other concept -- a Cross-Strait Peace Agreement. It alone can give such an agreement the necesary legitimacy. To normalize cross-Strait relations, we must sign a peace agreement. It alone can enable Taiwan to participate in international activities. It along can improve relations between Taiwan and the Mainland vis a vis the rule of law and national policy. It alone can fully normalize the rule of law, national security, and domestic policy. A Cross-Strait Peace Agreement is actually part of Lien and Hu's Five Visions. It is their most important consensus. Yet the KMT has been cowed by the Green Camp. It is paralyzed, terrified of defending this idea. Now however, is the time to realize this vision.

One China, Same Intepretation, is not opposed to One China, Different Interprations. It is an evolution of One China, Different Interpretations. It is a more logical and intuitive understanding of the cross-Strait relationship. Hung Hsiu-chu quoted the late President Chiang Ching, who said, "The times are changing, the environment is changing, the trends are changing," The KMT must not cling to One China, Different Interpretations. The time for that is past. The 1992 Consensus helped the KMT win the presidency, twice. The time however, has come for an upgrade.

一中同表是一中各表的再進化
20150629 中國時報

馬英九總統以「九二共識、一中各表」為基礎,建立兩岸「不統、不獨、不武」關係架構,歷經7年執政,創造了國民政府遷台以來兩岸前所未有的和平巔峰。但不可諱言,隨著台灣內外環境變化、中國大陸全球影響力提高及兩岸關係進入深水區,「一中各表」已出現論述「彈性疲乏」及政策規畫執行「合理性欠缺」現象。洪秀柱以「一中同表」及「兩岸和平協定」作為國民黨競選2016總統大位兩岸政策主軸,是「一中各表」的進階,如能得到選民認同順利當選,將可為兩岸關係打下更深厚、更可長可遠的和平發展基礎。

兩岸關係的核心在如何處理「一中」爭議。自1949年兩岸分治至今,爭奪的就是「一中代表權」。冷戰時期是「漢賊不兩立」,李登輝執政兩岸開始交往,初期以「一中各表」處理「一中代表權」,後期則走向分離主義「兩國論」,放棄爭奪「一中代表權」。

陳水扁8年執政以「一邊一國」為核心,兩岸信任幾乎降到冰點。2008年馬英九執政,以「九二共識、一中各表」定位「一中」,得以與北京進行事務性協商,開啟兩岸大交流。

「一中各表」已做出歷史性、功能性的貢獻,但北京與全世界172個國家有外交關係,台北只有22個邦交國,北京的全球政治權力超過台北許多,長期下來「各表」很明顯對台北不利。而且多數國家接受「一個中國就是中華人民共和國」,使得台灣半數以上民眾認為,「一中各表」定義「一中就是中華民國」,只是國民黨的「自慰詞」。PTT八卦版上充斥著年輕世代的「公式化」嘲諷:「原來對岸是中華民國哦?」「國際認知的一中是PRC吧?」「國民黨敢到大陸喊嗎?」「先請中共承認一中是ROC吧?」

這些「一句式」質疑都符合直觀。因為,大陸長期壟斷「中國代表權」,壓抑台灣國際參與空間,強說一中是中華民國,確實容易被年輕人當成阿Q式笑話。其結果是,許多台灣民眾把「中國」和「台灣」對立起來,「傾中、親中」就是「賣台」。

在政治現實上,「一中各表」已無法處理兩岸政治關係,未來對台灣將更為不利,而且也繼續惡化了台灣內部的認同關係,顯然「九二共識」需要深化。洪秀柱提出的「一中同表」,具體內容是「兩岸均是『整個中國』內的一部分,其主權宣示重疊、憲政治權分立」。

用通俗的話來說,「兩岸是整個中國內部的兩個憲政政府」,兩岸關係並不是「國際關係」,也不是哪一方的「內政事務」,而是「整個中國」的「內部關係」。

「一中同表」清晰合理,是「一中各表」的進化而非異化,它不僅可以讓兩岸關係和平穩定的前進,又可以化解台灣民眾的認同爭議。在一中同表的論述基礎下,PTT八卦版上對「一中各表」直觀式的質疑,也能提出符合直觀的回應:喜馬拉雅山是「整個中國」的最高峰,中華民國政府所管轄的最高峰是玉山。同樣,兩岸故宮博物院的文物重寶都是「整個中國」的,屬於兩岸共有的財產,但是,台北的故宮由台北政府管理,北京的故宮由北京政府管理。

當「一中同表」符合民眾的「直觀」,國民黨的兩岸論述才能在台灣內部取得說服力,也才能進一步讓洪秀柱的另一個兩岸主張「兩岸和平協定」,取得更強的正當性基礎。兩岸關係要正常化,就必須簽署「和平協定」,解決「台灣參與國際活動問題」,並有利台灣從法制與國策上改變與大陸的敵對關係,兩岸關係才能夠從法治與國安及內政政策全面正常化。「兩岸和平協定」其實是「連胡五項願景」的一部分,也是最重要共識,國民黨卻被綠營聲勢嚇唬而陷於「木雞困境」,怯於為這個理念辯護,現在是實現的時機了。

「一中同表」並不是「一中各表」的對立面,而是一中各表的進化,而且更合於邏輯、更合於直觀的兩岸論述。就如洪秀柱引故總統蔣經國的話:「時代在變、環境在變、潮流在變」,國民黨不要再死抱「一中各表」了,過去幫國民黨打下二次江山的「九二共識」,是到了改裝升級的時候了。

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Hung Hsiu-chu! Your Courage Has Inspired 23 Million People!


Hung Hsiu-chu! Your Courage Has Inspired 23 Million People!
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 26, 2015


Executive Summary: To the best of our knowledge, when someone seeks political office, usually that someone is motivated by fame or fortune. That of course is why we seldom expect much from politicians. If a politician demonstrates even a modicum of integrity when calculating their selfish interests, we are pleasantly surprised. Frankly, it is difficult to imagine someone motivated by ideals and feelings plunging head first, like a moth to a flame, into anything as daunting as a presidential campaign. Hung Hsiu-chu has obviously subverted the Conventional Wisdom.
Full Text Below:

To the best of our knowledge, when someone seeks political office, usually that someone is motivated by fame or fortune. That of course is why we seldom expect much from politicians. If a politician demonstrates even a modicum of integrity when calculating their selfish interests, we are pleasantly surprised. Frankly, it is difficult to imagine someone motivated by ideals and feelings plunging head first, like a moth to a flame, into anything as daunting as a presidential campaign. Hung Hsiu-chu has obviously subverted the Conventional Wisdom.

Who knew? When Hung Hsiu-chu first announced her candidacy, it was treated like a joke. She said she simply could not bear the thought of the KMT going under. Therefore she set a clear path by which she would lead the KMT out of its predicament. In the beginning, to be honest, most people dismissed her declaration as sheer fantasy, as utter naivete. They could not be bothered to comment on her candidacy. But she ignored the cynics, and with great tenacity, laid out her ideas before the public, step by step. She exemplified what Laozi meant when he said,
「上士聞道,勤而行之;下士聞道,大笑之,不笑不足以為道。」Or as Thomas Aquinas put it, "For those who understand no explanation is necessary. For those who do not understand no explanation is possible."

This required immense courage. Like Tang Sanzang, who traveled west to India to obtain the sutras, Hung began her journey with a single step. That is the true test of courage. Who else possessed it? Hung Hsiu-chu showed she did. She dared to attempt the impossible. She dared to defy "mainstream opinion", aka, mob prejudice. She declared that she would rid Taiwan of the curse of populism. She was dismissed as Don Quixote, tilting at windmills. She declared that she would get Taipei and Beijing to sign a peace agreement. She was dismissed as a braggart, and ridiculed. She has long accused the KMT of cowardice, right to the party elders's faces. Indeed, Hung Hsiu-chu gives people the impression she would march straight toward the enemy even if it numbered in the millions.

As a result, people began to believe her. She was apparently playing for keeps. She was apparently a straight shooter, who tells it like it is. Many people have long been afraid to say what they feel. Inspired by her courage, they finally gave vent to their true feelings. Her devotion to her party as obvious. As she put it, “Did we equivocate when we should not have equivocated? Did we compromise when we should not have compromised? Did we look the other way when we should not have looked the other way? Did we surrender when we should not have surrendered?” How astonishing! She dared utter such words in the face of "mainstream opinion". How much courage was required, especially when politicians confront their peers?

Simply put, Hung Hsiu-chu's favorable situation, is the direct result of her extraordinary courage. That courage is further underscored by her diminutive stature. This scenario is the unexpected creation of an unorthodox role model. No wonder so many netizens on the Mainland have concluded that elections on Taiwan really do determine everything.

Over the past few days, as the Hung Hsiu-chu whirlwind gathered force, a slew of vicious rumors and allegations have been hurled at her. These allegations were predictable, but puzzling. Why? None of them have been backed up by evidence. None of them have killed her campaign. So what was their purpose? Was is to undermine Hung's confidence? Hung Hsiu-chu's most admirable trait, from beginning to end, has been her dauntless courage. Are these people really trying to test her resolve, through these underhanded, unethical moves? Aren't they afraid they will only stiffen her resolve? In particular, the baseless and inhuman allegations against her father have gone beyond all boundaries. Nevertheless, Hung Hsiu-chu must demonstrate utter fearlessness. She must anticipate still more trial and tribulations.

It is clear that even more vicious attacks are being readied. Some have already brought up the issue of provincial origins. Lo and behold, many of those bringing up the issue of provincial origins hail from the blue camp. Do they realize that Hung Hsiu-chu is the one person in the Kuomintang least afraid of “Mainlander” Original Sin? After all, her provincial origins brought her nothing but grief. Some who incite hatred rooted in provincial origins, are beneficiaries of their own provincial origins. Do they really intend to compare their experiences with those endured by Hung Hsiu-chu during the White Terror? The DPP is still afraid to play the provincial origins card against Hung Hsiu-chu. So what are these provocateurs who have started a whisper campaign against Hung really up to?

The 81 obstacles in the Journey to the West demonstrated the value of the sutras and Tang Shanzang's moral character. We believe in Hung Hsiu-chu. Her courage has inspired the people of Taiwan. She is trying to set an example. She is attempting to create a narrative. Will the Republic of China gain a new lease on life because of her? Next year's election will give us the answer.


洪秀柱!妳的勇氣會感動2300萬人

20150626 中國時報



就我們一般人的理解,一個人選擇走上政治路,多少總有或名或利的考量,所以我們對政治人物不敢期待太高,只要他在自己的利益算計和理想之間能取得某種一致性,就已經了不起了。坦白說,我們無法想像一個人,可以只為了某種理想情懷,而以跡近飛蛾撲火之姿,投入一場像總統這麼大規模選戰的,洪秀柱顯然顛覆了我們常識性的認知。



誰都看得出來,洪秀柱這次參選,在她宣布階段,幾乎接近一場玩笑。她說她只是因為不忍國民黨的沉淪,於是要以一條清晰的路線來帶領國民黨脫出困局。老實說,這話在一開始,人們多以天方夜譚、不知天高地厚來看待,也懶得去評論她出線的可能。可是她完全不理會這些冷嘲熱諷,而以無比的韌性,一步一腳印把她的想法鋪陳在國人面前。這還真是應了老子說的「上士聞道,勤而行之;下士聞道,大笑之,不笑不足以為道。」



這真是需要無比的勇氣。就像唐三藏取經,從第一步踏出去開始,就是勇氣的考驗,誰敢呢?洪秀柱以她的堅毅不拔證明了她「敢」。她不只敢於挑戰不可能勝選的選戰,也敢挑戰由民粹形成的所謂「主流民意」高牆。她說她要破除民粹,這是唐吉訶德,她說她要簽訂兩岸和平協定,這是夸父逐日,所以她只贏得了訕笑。可是她還是一直說、一直說,甚至在面對著那麼多的黨前輩面前,直指國民黨的怯懦。說實在的,洪秀柱給人的感覺,就是雖千萬人吾往矣的「勇敢」。



於是這時候人們開始被她說服了,她好像是玩真的,而且以單刀直入的方式直指人心,把許多人久已不敢宣之於口的悶氣,一股腦地宣洩出來了。就這麼一股沛然莫之能禦的民氣,全被她的勇氣給召喚出來了。我們看她是怎麼說她所熱愛的黨的:「是不是在不該模糊的地方模糊了?在不該妥協的地方妥協了?也在不該姑息的地方姑息了?更在不該放棄的地方放棄了呢?」這是多麼的振聾發聵!「主流民意」高牆下說這些話,又需要有多大的勇氣!特別是政治人物在對著自己人的時候。



簡單說,洪秀柱能有現在的局面,是她那非凡的勇氣創造出來的,尤其對照著她嬌小的身軀,這種勇氣特別顯示出一種巨大之美。這真是一位非典型的典範人物為我們創造的風景,也無怪許多大陸的網民都說,台灣的選舉還真是無所不能。



這幾天,隨著洪秀柱的旋風越颳越大,各種謠言與惡意指控也就一如預期般傾巢而出。但坦白說,這些指控真的令人不解,為什麼呢?如果所有指控並沒有讓洪秀柱一刀斃命的證據,那麼,所有指控的目的,不就只是為了擊垮洪的信心嗎?可是洪秀柱一路走來,最讓人佩服的不就是她的勇氣嗎?難道這些測試她意志力臨界點的無理無德作為,不怕激起她更強的鬥志嗎?特別是對她父親莫名的、違反人性的指控,已經超出評論界線了,但我們認為洪秀柱必然能展現更驚人的無畏與無懼,迎向更多的橫逆。



現在顯然有一股更大的蠢動在醞釀著,我們已經看到了有人開始挑動省籍議題,而且這次挑動省籍居然有相當一部分人是來自藍營。可是這些人不知道想過沒有,洪秀柱正是國民黨內最不怕省籍原罪的人,因為她的省籍只給她帶來了苦難,而不像一些企圖挑動省籍的人,本身就是省籍的受益者,難道他們要跟洪秀柱比賽白色恐怖的受難經歷嗎?民進黨現在面對洪秀柱都還不太敢煽起省籍的耳語,現在這些人究竟意欲何為?



當然,就像唐僧取經,沒有八十一難,就不足以顯示取經的可貴與唐僧人格的高潔,我們相信也期盼洪秀柱會持續地以她的勇氣感動著台灣人民!她正在試圖建立典範,創造傳奇,中華民國的未來道路會否因她而有了新的座標,明年的大選就會有答案。

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Campaigning in the Face of a Rising Mainland

Campaigning in the Face of a Rising Mainland
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 25, 2015


Executive Summary: The rise of Mainland China is a fact. Taiwan cannot indulge in outdated thinking over reunification vs. independence or political mobilization that sets blue against green. Fighting these old battles squanders our energy and resources. The Mainland and neighboring Asian countries will not wait for Taiwan. If Taiwan loses its economic edge, we can forget about "dignity". Reunification will be inescapable. This election is crucial. The debate between the two parties and two candidates will help the public on Taiwan understand how much the world has changed. It will help them leave behind the tragedies of the past and their Cold War mentality. It will help them better understand the Mainland, and Taiwan's relationship to the rest of the world. It will help them make an objective assessment of their own strengths and where opportunities lie. We cannot afford to wallow in the past. Nor can we afford to lose confidence in ourselves and become despondent. We must find the correct path for Taiwan.

Full Text Below:

The rise of Mainland China is a fact. Taiwan cannot indulge in outdated thinking over reunification vs. independence or political mobilization that sets blue against green. Fighting these old battles squanders our energy and resources. The Mainland and neighboring Asian countries will not wait for Taiwan. If Taiwan loses its economic edge, we can forget about "dignity". Reunification will be inescapable. This election is crucial. The debate between the two parties and two candidates will help the public on Taiwan understand how much the world has changed. It will help them leave behind the tragedies of the past and their Cold War mentality. It will help them better understand the Mainland, and Taiwan's relationship to the rest of the world. It will help them make an objective assessment of their own strengths and where opportunities lie. We cannot afford to wallow in the past. Nor can we afford to lose confidence in ourselves and become despondent. We must find the correct path for Taiwan.

Consider the economics. According to IMF data, 2014 Mainland GDP was 10.3 trillion USD, second only to the United States. According to WTO 2014 global trade rankings, Mainland exports totalled 2.3 trillion USD. They accounted for 12.4% of global exports, making the Mainland number one in the world. Mainland imports totalled 1.9 trillion USD. They accounted for 10.3% of global imports, making it number two in the world. In total trade since 2013, the United States ranked first in the world. Mainland China's economy is growing both in size and influence. It has become an indispensable component of the global economy. In 2004 Mainland China became a key exporter of capital. It invested a total of 614 billion USD abroad. This fell short of the US, at 6.5 trillion. But Mainland China is growing at a much faster fate than the United States. It is rapidly closing the gap between the two countries.

Faced with the rise of Mainland China, people on Taiwan have reacted differently. Some might be termed "The Blind". These people are willfully blind. They see nothing. Their minds are mired in the past, 20 years ago, when Mainland China was supposedly on the brink of collapse. They seek reassurances in this. Alas, "Reality Bites". The gap between objective reality and their fantasy is too great. Therefore all they can do is remain willfully blind. Tsai Ing-wen says she is willing to accept the status quo. But we see no sign of the DPP changing either its attitude or its policies. Basically it remains willfully blind. Others might be termed "The Defeated". They assume that the rise of Mainland China means Taiwan no longer has a future. They assume the rise of the red supply chain means Taiwan products will be replaced by Mainland products. They assume that any effort is futile, and that all they can do is watch the Mainland become stronger as Taiwan becomes weaker.

Both groups have made a huge mistake. The biggest mistake of The Blind is to ignore facts and see only what they wish to see. They aggressively demand Taiwan's economic isolation. The fewer exchanges with the Mainland, the better. The fewer exports to the Mainland, the better. The fewer cross-Strait investments, the better. They would like nothing better than to sever all relations with the Mainland. This kind sort of blind faith in isolationism is of course absurd, ignorant, stupid, and utterly destructive to Taiwan.

Focus only on the risks and one will be blind to the opportunities. In fact, Taiwan has allowed many opportunities accruing from the rise of the Mainland to go to waste. This has been extremely disadvantageous for Taiwan. No country on earth, including Japan and South Korea, can afford to ignore Mainland China's economic rise. No country on earth can afford to adopt an ostrich "head in the sand" attitude and cut itself off from Mainland China. Needless to say, we of all people, should not adopt such an attitude.

The Mainland now boasts an independent supply chain. But within the East Asian supply chain, Taiwan retains a more advantageous position. The quality of our exports still far exceeds those from the Mainland. Of course, every country and every industry in the East Asian supply chain must cope with rising stars hot on their tail. The only way for Taiwan's manufacturing sector to survive is import substitution, to Japan, Europe and the United States.

To achieve import substitution however, one must raise one's technology and quality to new levels. Many manufacturers are doing this. Taiwan has many "stealth leaders" that many have never heard of. Yet their products are among the best in the world. Ask these companies whether they are afraid of the Mainland catching up to them. The vast majority of them will tell you that the world, including Mainland China, have been attempting to catch up. But so far these companies have managed to stay ahead. Taiwan's way out is simple. It must continue cultivating "stealth leaders" within its manufacturing sector.

Another even more promising future involves the Internet economy. The communications revolution has brought many such opportunities. Such opportunities, in a market of 1.3 billion people, are golden. Today's Internet economy is already quite mature. Business giants have already been created. Competing with them now is very difficult. Fortunately the Internet economy remains in the developmental stage. Our young people have the ability to seize the opportunity to start new businesses. Taiwan has the opportunity to use innovation and creativity to build its brands. We should go all out.

Hung Hsiu-chu has endorsed "one China, different interpretations". She has helped the two sides take another step forward, toward one China. Most people on Taiwan do not deny their cultural roots in Mainland China. Hung is helping them face the rise of the Mainland in a rational manner. She is helping them leave their phobias about the Mainland behind. She is establishing an alliance of people who reject Sinophobia. This will enable people on Taiwan to use their resources on Mainland China to enhance Taiwan's industrial competitiveness and future growth.

打一場面對中國崛起的選舉
20150625 中國時報

中國大陸崛起已經是事實,台灣卻不能跳脫統獨藍綠舊思維與政治動員模式,繼續在舊戰場惡鬥,造成國力虛耗。中國大陸與周邊國家不會等待台灣,一旦台灣失去經濟優勢,沒有尊嚴的統一就會成為不可逃避的命運。這場選舉的重要意義,在如何藉諸兩黨候選人的辯論,帶領台灣社會了解世界已經改變的事實,擺脫歷史悲情與冷戰思維,正確解讀中國大陸、台灣與世界的關係,客觀評估自己的力量與機會,既不能沉醉在美好的過去,也不懷憂喪志失去自信,才能為台灣找出正確的出路。

就經濟而言,據IMF資料,2014年中國大陸GDP總值103千億美元,僅次於美國為世界第二。在WTO發布2014年全球貿易排名,大陸出口總額23千億美元,占全球12.4%為世界第一;進口總額19千億美元,占全球10.3%為世界第二;貿易總額自2013年超越美國以穩居世界第一。中國大陸經濟規模愈來愈大,影響力日重,已是世界經濟不可或缺的參與者。2004年中國已成為重要資本輸出國,對外投資總額達6140億美元,雖不及美國的6.5兆,但中國增速遠超過美國,兩國的差距正快速縮小。

面對大陸的崛起,台灣不同的人有不同反應。有些人可稱之為「眼罩派」,這一派替自己戴上眼罩,所以什麼都沒看到,腦中記憶還停留在20年前,那時有人提出中國即將崩潰,讓他們找到了寄託,但是因為現實環境與崩潰差別太大,只好一直帶著眼罩,維持信念。蔡英文願意接受現狀,但我們看不出來民進黨在政策上與態度上的改變,基本上還是「眼罩派」。另外一種反應叫做「投降派」,認為中國大陸崛起是事實,台灣未來沒有前途,紅色供應鏈崛起,台灣產品一定會被大陸產品取代,現在做什麼都沒有用,就等著看大陸愈來愈強,台灣愈來愈弱。

這兩派都犯了很大的錯誤。「眼罩派」最大的錯誤是罔顧事實,只願意看到自己所希望看到的;他們積極鼓動台灣經濟獨立,和大陸交往愈少愈好,台灣對大陸出口萎縮愈快愈好,兩岸投資愈少愈好,最好趕快把台灣和大陸的關係切斷。這種以鎖國為核心的信仰,當然不可取,無知愚蠢,毒害台灣。

如果只專注於風險,就會忽略機會。在大陸崛起的事實下,讓機會白白從手中流失,對台灣非常不利。包含日、韓,世界上幾乎沒有一個國家可以罔顧大陸經濟崛起的事實,而採取鴕鳥式的封閉和切割。我們當然不應當採取這種態度。

大陸自主供應鏈雖然已經崛起,但以目前的基本態勢來說,在東亞的供應鏈上,台灣還是相對居於比較先進的地位;我們出口品的平均精緻度仍然遠超過中國大陸。當然,在東亞供應鏈上每一個國家、每一個產業都面臨後起之秀的追趕,台灣製造業唯一能夠生存的方法就是要做進口替代,向日本、歐洲、美國看齊。

要做到進口替代,當然要把自己的技術、品質提升到新的水準;很多廠商正在這樣做。所以台灣有很多「隱形冠軍」,就是這些廠商很多人都沒聽過,但是他們的產品在世界上卻是名列前茅。如果去問這些廠商害不害怕大陸追趕,絕大多數會回答說,他們早已經歷過包括中國大陸在內世界各國的追趕,但到現在還保持領先。台灣的出路很簡單,以製造業而言,就是繼續培養「隱形冠軍」。

另一個更具前景的未來,是因應網路經濟崛起,而開始布局通路革命所帶來的商機。這個商機放在13億人的市場,是一個千載難逢的機會。如果今天網路經濟已經非常成熟,龍頭企業都已經產生,此時要加入競爭就非常困難;幸好網路經濟還在發展階段,我們年輕人絕對有能力把握這個機會去創業。以台灣創新、創意及塑造品牌的能力,應當很有機會,我們應該全力以赴。

洪秀柱在政治上已經表明「一中同表」,為兩岸共同構成一個中國跨前一步,多數人並不否認自己在文化上與中國的聯結,現在是她帶領台灣理性面對中國大陸的崛起,跳脫對中國大陸的恐懼,建立一個「拒絕反中」大聯盟的契機,讓台灣可以利用中國大陸的資源,提升產業競爭力,幫台灣未來的發展立下堅實的基礎。


Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Hung Hsiu-chu: Firm Up Support in South Before Visiting Washington

Hung Hsiu-chu: Firm Up Support in South Before Visiting Washington
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 24, 2015


Executive Summary: Hung Hsiu-chu will be representing the KMT in the 2016 general election, pending ratification during next month's KMT party congress. Meanwhile, issues such as organizational deployment, campaign strategy, intraparty harmony, whether to visit the US, and the coat tails effect, have followed one after another. Criticism by rivals and pundits has intensified. Under the circumstances, visiting the US should not be Hung Hsiu-chu's first priority. Her first priority should be planning her campaign strategy and cultivating voter support south of the Cho-shui Creek.

Full Text Below:

Hung Hsiu-chu will be representing the KMT in the 2016 general election, pending ratification during next month's KMT party congress. Meanwhile, issues such as organizational deployment, campaign strategy, intraparty harmony, whether to visit the US, and the coat tails effect, have followed one after another. Criticism by rivals and pundits has intensified. Under the circumstances, visiting the US should not be Hung Hsiu-chu's first priority. Her first priority should be planning her campaign strategy and cultivating voter support south of the Cho-shui Creek.

In 2011, Tsai Ing-wen took part in the presidential election. Having served as party chairman, vice president, and MAC chairperson, she had a good understanding of public policy and felt very much at home. By contrast, Hung Hsiu-chu has just stepped on her path to the presidency. Her policy platform has yet to be sorted out. She has yet to develop contacts and increase her local level exposure. Not surprisingly, the Hung campaign is still somewhat disorganized. Can she get up to speed, get in step, and make up for her deficiencies, ASAP? That is the question.

Hung Hsiu-chu got a late start. She is also a dark horse. Therefore she cannot wage a conventional trench warfare campaign like those waged in the past by Lien Chan or Ma Ying-jeou. She must rely on guerrilla tactics to succeed. Tsai Ing-wen sees herself as a shoo-in. She hopes to coast to victory, merely through rote repetition of her policy rhetoric. Her demeanor is smug. She goes through the motions. She even contradicts herself. She leaves people with the impression she is a "virtual candidate" who is not quite real. The Hung camp should exploit these green camp inconsistencies. The Hung camp should give the Tsai camp a sharp slap in the face. If the Hung camp can show how weak "Content Free Tsai" really is, it should be able to rapidly make inroads.

Alas, guerrilla warfare has never been the KMT's strong suit. The blue camp has long been inept at such offensive and defensive tactics. It is conservative, bland, and self-destructive. Therefore responsibility for carrying out these tasks must not be turned over to traditional KMT think tanks, or party leaders. Instead they must be entrusted to the "best and brightest" minds outside traditional channels. Only then can they expose the green camp's lack of substance. In short, Hung Hsiu-chu is an unorthodox candidate. To break out in the six months remaining, she must adopt unorthodox tactics. She must be neither too rigid nor too scattered. The think tanks should play a supplementary role, by providing flanking support. They must not become the masters.

Hung Hsiu-chu qualified as a primary candidate with flying colors. This dark horse candidate restored blue camp morale. Unfortunately over the past week, she has encountered considerable resistance within her own party. There has been much grinding of gears. She was probably speaking her mind when she said that if Wang Jin-pyng wants to return to the Legislative Yuan he should run for office at the district level. But her comment was a bit too blunt, and somewhat out of bounds. It was also not conducive to any prospective Hung/Wang ticket. Should Hung visit the US? That is something she should have discussed with the party leadership, then arrived at a decision. She did not need to publicly inform Eric Chu "I will arrive at my own decision on that". Even if she disagreed with the party leadership's arrangements, there was no need to leave outsiders with the impression of intraparty friction.

A greater challenge for Hung Hsiu-chu involves her policy path. Is it pluralistic enough to win the support of the greatest number of voters? She is currently well positioned on cross-Strait and economic and energy policies. Her positions on these have attracted support from traditional blue camp voters. Her frank and straightforward manner also demonstrates an intensity traditionally lacking in blue camp leaders. But once she has consolidated her support among deep blue voters, she must win the support of pale blue and swing voters. She must win the support of younger voters. Hung Hsiu-chu must offer greater diversity and creativity. She must prove she is able to lead Taiwan towards a sounder, brighter future. She must not dwell on only a few key points.

In fact, Hung Hsiu-chu's family was a victim of the White Terror. It was classified as a "category four impoverished household". Her gradual rise to her current stature, is a Horatio Alger success story. It symbolizes political reconciliation and renunciation of hate. This is something she can dwell on more. The green camp is constantly attempting to use McCarthyite tactics against her. It has even resorted to claims that "A vote for Hung Hsiu-chu is a vote for Xi Jinping". This reveals the harsh political climate on Taiwan. It shows that the Hung camp must emphasize strategic balance. It must not allow itself to be pinned down on any single issue.

Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States because her cross-Strait policy path could not be trusted. That made her "job interview" with Washington essential. Hung Hsiu-chu does not have this problem. Tsai Ing-wen has just concluded her visit to the US. Hung Hsiu-chu has no need to make such a trip. It would not help her election campaign, unless of course the US accorded her an even more lavish reception. Hung Hsiu-chu should now concentrate on her domestic campaign, especially in central and southern Taiwan, where the blue camp needs an election boost. She can create a coat tails effect. She can win local KMT party trust. She can allow her "little pepper" charisma work its charm in central and southern Taiwan.

Election campaigns are complex and multi-faceted undertakings. Hung Hsiu-chu must know how to form alliances and how to launch attacks. Her vision need not be confined to a single corner of the room. She need not offend others with her statements. She must now go south, past Cho-shui Creek, and consolidate her support in central and southern Taiwan. If afterwards, she still has enough energy leftover, it will not be too late to talk about visiting the United States.

聯合/洪秀柱先固濁水溪南 再談訪美
2015-06-24 02:11:41 聯合報 聯合報社論

洪秀柱代表國民黨出征二○一六大選,資格尚待下月的黨代表大會追認;然而,組織部署、選戰策略、黨內磨合、是否訪美、母雞帶小雞等問題已紛至沓來,對手和外界的批評抹黑也逐漸加劇。在這種情況下,是否訪美恐非洪秀柱眼前的優先事項,先將選戰大局與策略部署妥當,並設法展現揮師跨越濁水溪的氣勢,才是她的當務之急。

蔡英文二○一一年即投入總統大選,加上先前黨主席、副院長、陸委會等歷練,她的政策思維及公開應對都有一定程度的練達,顯得駕輕就熟。相形之下,洪秀柱的總統之路甫才起步,不僅有許多政見架構需要整理,在各路人脈及地方能見度的開拓上也需要費心經營;所以,洪營目前的腳步有些凌亂,並非意外之事。關鍵就在,洪秀柱是否能夠及時調整步伐,加速擴大自己的優勢,並儘快彌補自己的不足。

正因為起步較晚,而且是意外出線,因此洪秀柱不能再像過去的連戰、馬英九一樣打傳統型的陣地戰,而必須靠議題型的突擊戰術取勝,才能易於有所斬獲。原因是,蔡英文似乎自覺勝券在握,在政策論述及政見攻防上都只求平穩度過,有時顯得躊躇滿志或虛應故事,甚至矛盾百出,給人「虛而不實」的印象。如果洪營能抓住綠營這些言不及義之處,給予迎頭痛擊,暴露「空心蔡」的虛弱,必能帶來快速加分的效果。

問題在,「突擊戰」一向不是國民黨人的長項。過去藍營對攻防議題的選擇,常常不夠精準,或流於保守、無趣,甚至演成自傷。因此,這類提供議題突擊火力的任務,可能無法全然交給國民黨智庫或黨部的傳統心智來進行,而必須向外藉助各路戰友的金頭腦共同獻策,以突破綠營的務虛戰法。簡言之,洪秀柱既然是一個「非典型」的參選者,要在僅剩半年的時間內突圍脫穎而出,必須採取「非典型」的搶攻戰略,不必太過拘泥,當然也不能漫無章法。而智庫的作用,則在補充洪秀柱政見之骨肉,並隨時提供側翼的論戰支援,不宜反客為主。

洪秀柱高民調「破磚」後,以黑馬之姿有效重新凝聚了藍營的士氣。但不可否認,一周來她和黨內各方的磨合,也不斷傳出齒輪咬合差錯的嘎嘎雜音。其中,諸如她在受訪時直言王金平重回立法院之路就是「參選區域立委」,這應是真心話,卻有欠委婉,也嫌撈過界,同時不利於邀王為己輔選。再如,對於要不要訪美,她大可和黨中央討論過各種可能性再作取捨,而無需對朱立倫宣稱的安排公開回稱「以我說的為準」。就算不同意黨中央安排,也沒有必要留給外界雙方磨合欠佳的印象吧!

洪秀柱更大的挑戰,在於她的路線選擇、政策方針是否足夠寬廣多元,而能吸引最大可能的多數選民支持。目前看來,她在兩岸政策、經濟能源等政策上的定位,皆頗能吸引傳統藍軍支持者的認同,她的坦率直白,也展現了一般藍營領導人缺乏的力度。然而,在穩住了深藍的核心地帶後,若要進一步開拓淺藍及中間地帶選民票源,乃至爭取年輕世代的支持,洪秀柱都必須提出更多元、更開創的主張,證明自己是可以帶領台灣走向更健康、更光明之路的人選,而不能在少數定點一直打轉。

事實上,以洪秀柱的白色恐怖受難家屬、四級貧戶之家的成長背景,能一步一腳印走到今天,她本身就是一個令人鼓舞的成功範例,也表現了政治和解、放下仇恨的正向力量,她可以對此加強著墨。然而,綠營人士不斷對她「抹紅」,甚至說出「投洪秀柱就是投習近平」的仇恨言論;這除反映台灣政治風氣之惡劣,也顯示洪營在戰略上必須更重視平衡,不要被牽制在單一議題上難以脫身。

事實上,正因為蔡英文的兩岸路線不受到信任,所以她訪美爭取華府信賴是必要的面試之旅,洪秀柱則無此問題。同時,也正因為蔡英文剛剛訪美歸來,洪秀柱大可避開此一無助造勢的行程,除非美方能提供更高規格待遇。就大局看,洪秀柱目前應將全力放在國內的衝刺造勢,尤其是藍軍選情有待提振的中南部,設法營造她「母雞帶小雞」的氣勢,爭取黨內本土派對她的信任,也讓小辣椒的直白魅力在中南部發酵。

選戰經緯萬端,洪秀柱要懂得結盟、善攻之道,視野不必侷限一隅,發言不必出口傷人。當下,應該先行南下跨越濁水溪固盤,行有餘力,再談赴美訪問也不遲。

Monday, June 22, 2015

Tsai Ing-wen's Transformation: Real or Fake?

Tsai Ing-wen's Transformation: Real or Fake?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 23, 2015


Executive Summary: A political transformation may take place on Taiwan in 2016. The DPP may adopt an entirely new stance on cross-Strait policy and national identity. Unless it does so, the public on Taiwan will pay a high price, one assuredly not worth any returns. It will also add up to a disaster for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen.

Full Text Below:

A political transformation may take place on Taiwan in 2016. The DPP may adopt an entirely new stance on cross-Strait policy and national identity. Unless it does so, the public on Taiwan will pay a high price, one assuredly not worth any returns. It will also add up to a disaster for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen.

We have repeatedly warned that in the face of certain changes, the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen must choose between being "traitors to Taiwan independence" and "sinners against Taiwan". If they fail to choose, if they refuse to change their stance on national identity and cross-Strait policy, whether Tsai Ing-wen wins in 2016 will not matter. The result will be a disaster for the DPP as a party, and for Tsai Ing-wen as an individual.

First assume that they win. Beijing says that if Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the 1992 consensus, and refuses to oppose Taiwan independence, then "the earth will tremble and progress will be impossible". It has made clear that if Tsai Ing-wen refuses to accept the 1992 consensus, the channels established between the Taiwan Affairs Office and the MAC will be shut down. Are the changes made by Tsai Ing-wen mere show? Is her current transformation mere pretense? If so, an election victory will merely lead to political and economic chaos. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP may win an election, but bring disaster down upon Taiwan.

Now assume that they lose. Tsai Ing-wen has clearly begun a transformation. She now speaks of "maintaining the cross-Strait status quo", of "promoting cross-Strait relations under the constitutional framework of the Republic of China", of "seeking common ground and shelving differences under the 1992 consensus". These positions all indicate transformation. These positions flatly contradict Taiwan independence rhetoric. Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen's rhetoric has received the tacit endorsement of Taiwan independence elements. Taiwan independence elements know that enabling Tsai Ing-wen to win the election means they must bite their tongues.

So has Tsai Ing-wen undergone genuine transformation? Or are she and Taiwan independence elements merely putting on a show? The green camp has yet to reach a consensus. Do Taiwan independence elements see Tsai Ing-wen's current moves as mere campaign trickery? Is that why they are silent? If Tsai Ing-wen is victorious, that will be one thing. But what if she is defeated? She will have rejected Taiwan independence for naught. In that case, will she ever escape Taiwan independence movement condemnation? Would this not amount to a disaster for both the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen?

Therefore, under the circumstances, Tsai Ing-wen has no choice but to undergo genuine transformation. She cannot afford to pretend. First, she must use genuine transformation to build trust with Beijing. Second, she must extract a commitment from Taiwan independence elements to do the same. She may even need to draft a new "party resolution", in black and white, regardless of whether she wins or loses, or whether Taiwan independence elements turn on her. Third, she must be honest with both blue and green camp voters. Blue camp voters must believe her, and green camp voters must emulate her.

Tsai Ing-wen cannot make an end run around the Republic of China. DPP members used to turn their back to the Republic of China. They used the ROC to backdoor listing their would-be "Republic of Taiwan". They must now turn to face the Republic of China. When Chen Shui-bian was in power, he flip-flooped between his "five noes" and "one country on each side", again and again. But the world has changed, Tsai Ing-wen's only choice is genuine transformation. She cannot lie to Taiwan independence elements. She cannot lie to blue and green camp voters. She cannot lie to Washington. She cannot lie to Beijing. She cannot lie to the Republic of China. She cannot lie to the ROC Constitution.

Tsai Ing-wen knows that Taiwan independence is a blind alley. That is why she has affirmed the ROC Constitution. That is the right course of action. Affirming the ROC Constitution means affirming a "constitutional one China", "one country, two regions", and "one country, different interpretations". That is why Tsai Ing-wen must also accept the 1992 consensus, and "one China, different interpretations". One China, different interpretations is the essence of the 1992 consensus. It is the most strategically valuable aspect of the ROC Constitution. Affirming the 1992 consensus involves risk. But unless Tsai Ing-wen assumes this risk, Taiwan independence elements will run amok, and she will forfeit "one China, different interpretations", the last line of defense. That would leave Taiwan in no man's land. Therefore Tsai Ing-wen must understand and accept the 1992 consensus, under the framework of the ROC Constitution. She must accept "one China, different interpretations". Only that constitutes genuine transformation.

Tsai Ing-wen has gone from rejecting the 1992 consensus to affirming the Republic of China Constitution. She has gone from total darkness to partial light. But either way she cannot escape. Affirming the constitution, a "constitutional one China", "one country, two regions", and "one China, different interpretations" all remain within the scope of the law and the constitution. Tsai Ing-wen must eventually return to a "constitutional one China" and "one China, different interpretations". Otherwise, she has not undergone genuine transformation.

Taiwan independence elements say Taiwan independence can support Taiwan's democracy, sovereignty, and confront the People's Republic of China. But Tsai Ing-wen must use the Republic of China to support Taiwan's democracy, the sovereignty of the ROC, and engage in coopetition with the PRC.

The arrow has left the bow. Tsai Ing-wen has changed. There is no turning back. Genuine transformation is the only way out. The consequences of fake transformation would be disastrous.

不歸路:蔡英文的真假轉身
2015-06-23 聯合報              

二○一六年的這一場可能發生的台灣政治變局,應當以民進黨在國家認同與兩岸政策上徹底轉型為結局。否則,台灣人民為這場變局將付出的代價,就太不值得了;且對民進黨及蔡英文而言,更將是一場災禍。

我們多次諍告,面對此一變局,民進黨及蔡英文,必須在「台獨叛徒」及「台灣罪人」兩種角色之間作一抉擇。倘無此等決志,而在國家認同及兩岸政策上不能徹底轉型,則無論蔡英文在二○一六勝選或落敗,皆將是民進黨及蔡英文的一場災禍。

先說如果勝選。北京稱,倘蔡英文不回到九二共識,又不表明反對台獨的立場,將有「地動山搖/寸步難行」的後果。並已明言,若蔡英文不正面接受九二共識,則國台辦及陸委會的法制化管道即告封閉。因而,蔡英文此時的動作,如果只是「假轉身」,但實際上卻是「未轉型」,屆時倘勝選重返執政,恐將陷於政經全局失控的局面,則蔡英文及民進黨雖贏得了大選,卻可能毀了台灣,豈非一場災禍?

再說如果敗選。毫無疑問的,蔡英文已經開始轉身。她說:「維持兩岸現狀」、「在中華民國憲政體制下,推動兩岸關係」,及「九二共識/求同存異」,皆是轉身;因為,如果這些論述皆要追根究柢下去,不啻已經完全顛覆了所有的台獨主張。而且,蔡英文的這一套論述,也獲得了獨派以當下的鴉雀無聲給予支持。因為,獨派亦知,若要贏得選舉,就必須噤聲。

但是,蔡英文究竟是「真轉身」,或只是與獨派再作一次自欺欺人的「假轉身」,這在綠營中顯然尚未獲得共識。獨派或許只將蔡英文此時的動作看成選舉的騙術(因此才噤聲),則蔡英文若勝選還則罷了,如果敗選,她的「去獨」豈能逃得過獨派的反攻倒算?屆時豈不也是民進黨及蔡英文的一場災禍?

是以,處此情勢,蔡英文只能真轉身,不可假轉身。一、用真轉身與北京建立互信。二、用真轉身逼出獨派對轉型的真承諾,甚至要見諸「新決議文」之類的白紙黑字,則未來不論執政或落選,或有可能使獨派再無反悔反噬的餘地。三、用真轉身來誠實面對藍綠選民,使藍的信任其轉身,綠的跟隨其轉身。

對蔡英文來說,中華民國是繞不過去的。所謂轉身,就是民進黨過去背對中華民國,只欲「借殼上市」,如今必須轉身面對中華民國。陳水扁的那個時代,還有在「四不一沒有」及「一邊一國」翻來覆去的空間;但世局國情今非昔比,蔡英文唯一的抉擇應當是「真轉身/真轉型」,她不能騙獨派、不能騙藍綠選民、不能騙美國、不能騙北京、不能騙中華民國,也不能騙中華民國憲法。

蔡英文已知台獨無出路,所以她回到中華民國憲法,是對的。回到中華民國憲法,邏輯上就是要回到「憲法一中/一國兩區/一中各表」。也因此,蔡英文既回到中華民國憲法,就必須正面接受「九二共識/一中各表」,因為「一中各表」正是九二共識對台灣最重要的內涵,也是中華民國憲法最重要的戰略價值。蔡英文不正面接受九二共識的風險,不止是使台獨首當其衝,也將失去「一中各表」的最後防線,那將使台灣陷入絕境。所以,蔡英文的轉身,恐須轉至「在中華民國憲法下,理解並接受九二共識」(亦即「一中各表」)的地步,才算是前文說的追根究柢,也才算是完全到位的真正轉身。

如今,蔡英文從「否定九二共識」的布袋裡鑽出來,卻鑽進了「中華民國憲法」的大網裡。布袋中固然暗無天日,但由袋入網,看似有了穿透性,卻實際上還是被網繩纏繞,無所逃遁。回歸憲法後,「憲法一中/一國兩區/一中各表」,皆是「法網恢恢/憲網恢恢」,以致蔡英文最後仍須回到「憲法一中/一中各表」。否則,她的轉身就不是真轉身。

獨派自稱,台獨可以支撐台灣的「民主/主體性/對抗中華人民共和國」;但蔡英文的轉身,必須做到用中華民國來支撐台灣的「民主/主體性/與中華人民共和國的競合關係」。

開弓沒有回頭箭。蔡英文正在轉身,這是一條不歸路。真轉身才有出路,假轉身的後果不堪設想。

Sunday, June 21, 2015

An Election Campaign Dominated by Women

An Election Campaign Dominated by Women
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 22, 2015


Executive Summary: The first female vs. female presidential election shows that the Republic of China is already an advanced democracy. No matter who is elected, history has already been written. These two exceptional women stand on an historic watershed. Together they can overturn the election culture by waging fresh, clean, substantive election campaigns. They can enable Taiwan and themselves to make history.

Full Text Below:

The 2016 Republic of China presidential election has, to everyone's surprise, turned into a showdown between two women. This once dull campaign has suddenly become exciting. Actually many women on Taiwan have taken part in presidential campaigns, mostly as vice presidential candidates to appeal to women voters. This time it is different. No matter whom one votes for, the president will be a woman.

Tsai Ing-wen, upon seeing Hung Hsiu-chu become the KMT candidate, said "This is not a battle between two women. Expect the creation of a new election culture." Hung Hsiu-chu said "I look forward to this battle between two women. This will give the public a new perspective, create a true model for democracy." The two female candidates hope that as women they can change the election culture. They hope they can overturn the tradition of personal attacks, disinformation, and smears. This corrupt election culture has already undermined social harmony and mutual trust, We hope these two women can bring about change.

Unfortunately, over the past two days the media and cyber armies have launched mud-slinging campaigns against rival candidates. Their conduct is indistinguishable from campaigns of the past, perhaps even worse, and include the following dirty tricks.

Aspersions upon the candidate's family origins. The candidates kin may not be running for office, but unfortunately they are collateral damage. The corpses of the candidates' ancestors may even be "exhumed for whipping". The Tsai family's wealth has been exaggerated. The family has been accused of profiting from its connections with the Mainland authorities. Hung Hsiu-chu's family is a victim of the white terror. Yet her father has been accused of being a informant, a phony victim. The presidential campaign has already sunk to the level of attacking the candidates' ancestors. Can we still call ourselves a civilized society?

Red-baiting. Hung Hsiu-chu is a so-called "second-generation Mainlander" McCarthyite attacks against her are a simple matter. They are also highly effective. The green camp is attacking Hung Hsiu-chu's declaration about winning the approval of 1.3 billion Chinese. It is spinning the campaign as one between a "president of Taiwan" and an "Agent of China". The blue camp has also resorted to scare tactics. It has revealed that the Hai Pa Wang seafood restaurant chain has invested a fortune in mainland China over the past 19 years. The immensely powerful Hai Pa Wang is a Tsai family business. Tsai Ing-wen "excoriates others for pandering to China and selling out Taiwan, even as she enriches herself from business dealings with the Chinese authorities". An angry Tsai has sued for slander. Red-baiting is like the Flying Guillotine. Every election it reappears and mows down everyone in its path. Red-baiting is essentially the incitement of so-called "ethnic" hatred. If effective, Ma Ying-jeou would never have been elected even once. Yet he was elected mayor twice and president twice. Clearly Taiwan has long ago transcended "ethnic" hatred. Yet politicians who lack confidence cling to it with a death grip.

Incitement of class warfare. Last year's Taipei mayoral election was a battle between wealthy political elites on one side, and the common man on the other. As a result, Sean Lien was humiliated. Now however, we have come full circle. The blue camp has set the tone for the presidential campaign: Rich girl vs. poor girl. The wealthiest candidate in history, vs. the poorest candidate in history. The green camp is wondering how it will cope. Calls to draft miner's son Lai Ching-teh are growing louder.

This election on Taiwan is about provincial origin, gender, class, and financial status. The poorer the candidate the better. This is truly unheard of.

Scandal mongering. Both female candidates are single and never married. Needless to say, the scandal sheets and cyber armies are licking their lips and rubbing their hands. The candidates' old classmates, friends, and neighbors have all emerged from the woodwork, each with their own story to tell. The media pieces it all together. Gossip mongers on evening talk shows parade past one another, full of innuendo. If they can find nothing good to say, they make a fuss over the candidate's sexual orientation. Even Ma Ying-jeou could not escape such rumor-mongering. How can the media and the cyber armies possibly spare these two women?

With every election, the candidates invariably promise clean campaigns. But elections on Taiwan have yet to undergo the slightest change. Since both candidates have pledged to wage lady-like campaigns, they must make a sincere effort. They must restrain their supporters. They must enjoin them not to cross the above four red lines. If they do, the candidates must immediately declare "I disagree with this approach." They must reprimand their supporters and apologize. They must not do one thing in public and another thing in private. They must not "beat their dogs in public, but praise them in private". The voters will see through such ploys.

The key to election reform on Taiwan is the media. The media has the freedom to report the facts. But it does not have the freedom to fabricate them. The media has the right to take positions. But it does not have the right to ignore the truth. To prevent he media from sowing chaos throughout the campaign, voters have two means. The most effective is to deny them one's vote. If a media organization slings mud, engages in smear campaigns, disinformation, or intimidation, then voters must reject that media organization's candidate. The second most effective means voters have is to withhold their financial support. If a media organization or political talk show crosses any of the above-mentioned four red lines, then voters must boycott products advertised in that media organization. Voters must vote with their dollars. They must let advertisers know that advertising in these media channels will be counterproductive.

The first female vs. female presidential election shows that the Republic of China is already an advanced democracy. No matter who is elected, history has already been written.

These two exceptional women stand on an historic watershed. Together they can overturn the election culture by waging fresh, clean, substantive election campaigns. They can enable Taiwan and themselves to make history.

打一場由女性特質主導的選舉
20150622 中國時報

2016年中華民國總統大選意外促成兩位女性共逐大位,這場原以為會非常沉悶的選戰頓時熱鬧了起來。其實台灣女性早已多次獻身總統選戰,但多居副手地位,擔任性別互補角色。這次不同了,不管你怎麼投,最後必定出現一位女性總統。

蔡英文在洪秀柱出線代表國民黨參選後說:「這不是兩個女人的戰爭,期待共塑新的選舉文化。」洪秀柱則說:「期盼兩個女人的選戰,能給社會大眾全新觀感,塑造真正的民主典範。」兩位女候選人都希望以女性特質改變選風,顛覆台灣長期謾罵造謠栽贓抹黑的選舉文化。敗壞的選風早已深層影響台灣社會的素質與人際互信,希望女性特質能帶來改變。

不幸的,這兩天媒體與網軍早已針對對方候選人展開丟糞戰,招式與以往毫無二致,甚至變本加厲,手法不外:

抄祖宗八代:他們雖然不是候選人卻不幸也中彈,甚至被鞭屍。蔡英文家族投資被無限放大,誣指她家族從大陸獲取特權與暴利。洪秀柱是白色恐怖受害者家屬,卻出現指控她父親是告密者,是假受難者的攻訐。在台灣選個總統,從基因開始就被質疑,我們是個有禮善良的社會嗎?

送族群紅帽:洪秀柱外省第二代身分,讓她戴紅帽子最順手,也最有殺傷力。綠軍攻擊洪秀柱言必稱13億中國人,因此,這是一場「台灣總統」與「中國代理人」之戰;藍軍也將帽子戲法耍得嚇嚇叫,爆料在中國大陸深耕19年,可以呼風喚雨的海霸王,是蔡英文的家族事業,她「嘴上罵別人傾中賣台,自己賺紅財」,一頂小紅帽惹得蔡英文提告止謗。紅帽如同血滴子,每逢選舉就如群魔亂舞企圖殺人於無聲無息。拋紅帽基本上是族群動員策略,如果這招有效,紅帽多到可以開店的馬英九應該一次都選不上,但是他卻做了兩任市長、兩任總統,可見台灣早已不受省籍族群的挑撥,沒有自信的政客們卻仍死抓不放。

搞階級對立:去年台北市長選舉的權貴vs.素人之戰,讓連勝文灰頭土臉,現在風水輪流轉,藍營定調這次總統選戰是富家女vs.貧家女,史上最有錢vs.上最窮候選人,綠營苦思破解之道,用礦工之子賴清德擔任副手的呼聲越來越高。

台灣選舉講究省籍互補、性別互補,現在還要階級互補、財力互補,候選人要越窮越好,真是奇聞。

挖八卦隱私:兩位女性候選人都是單身,而且從未有過婚姻紀錄,使得八卦媒體及網軍蠢蠢欲動;同學、友人、鄰居都出現了,每人一個片段,再由媒體拼湊成故事,晚上談話節目裡三姑六婆拉開陣仗,神祕兮兮,欲語還留;如果實在乏善可陳,就在性向上做文章。連馬英九都逃不了流言追殺,媒體和網軍又怎麼會放過這兩個女人呢?

每次大選,候選人都呼籲要打一場高格調的選戰,但是台灣選舉的劣根性沒有絲毫改變,既然兩位候選人都有心做一場淑女之爭,就必須做出努力,約束支持者及團隊,不跨越上述4條紅線,如有違反,立即公開表明:「我不贊成這樣的做法。」並懲處道歉;不過要提醒的是,千萬別搞「人前一套,人後一刀」「門前打狗,門後賞狗」的伎倆,因為選民的眼睛是雪亮的。

翻轉台灣選舉,媒體是關鍵力量。媒體有報導的自由,但沒有造謠的自由;媒體可以有立場,但不能沒是非;要防止媒體在選戰中起乩,選民的「兩票神功」最有效,一是撤選票,只要哪家媒體潑糞栽贓,造謠恐嚇,就用選票抵制該媒體支持的人選;二是撤鈔票,只要哪家媒體或政論節目任意跨越上述4條紅線,就發動拒買該媒體的廣告產品,用鈔票讓廣告主知道,在這些媒體登廣告會有反效果。

史上第一次的女性總統大選,顯示台灣已是一個先進的民主國家,不論誰當選,都是一頁傳奇。

期待這兩位優秀的女性,站在這歷史的轉捩點上,能聯手翻轉選風,打造一個清新、乾淨、論述紮實的選舉,讓台灣和她們一起寫下傳奇。