Three Links: Rewriting Cross-Strait Relations

Three Links: Rewriting Cross-Strait Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 15, 2008

Direct cross-Strait links, or "da san tong" have been obstructed for nearly 50 years, and debated for nearly twenty years. Beginning today, direct cross-Strait links are official policy. This means the full implementation of direct air passenger, maritime shipping, and postal links. Maritime shipping will no longer need to go through a third destination. Weekend charter flights will be expanded to include daily charter flights. Cross-Strait mail will only require two-days to reach its destination. This is an historic moment. What kind of changes will direct cross-Strait links lead to? At the moment that remains hard to predict. But we can be sure private sector cross-Strait interaction will have far-reaching effects.

Take weekend charter flights. They have already been increased to 108 flights per week. It used to be difficult to get weekend charter flight tickets. That has all changed. Air routes have also been straightened out. It is no longer necessary to detour through the Hong Kong Flight Information Region. This substantially shortens flight times. Take for example, the most heavily traveled air route, the one between Taipei and Shanghai. It now takes only 83 minutes. It is now possible to attend a morning meeting in Shanghai and get return to Taipei by dinnertime. A "cross-Strait commute" will become a reality. This will yield immediate benefits, facilitating the return of Taiwan businessmen and mainland spouses to Taiwan during next month's Spring Festival. The traditional "Spring Festival Charter Flights" will be a thing of the past.

Of course, weekday charter flights are merely an extension of weekend charter flights. They cannot replace regularly scheduled flights. In fact, six to seven hundred flights between Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao, and 108 weekday charter flights, are not enough to meet the demand. This will be one of the key points addressed at the secnd Chiang/Chen Meeting during the first half of next year. If all goes well, they will sign a formal agreement on regularly scheduled cross-Strait flights. For years, passengers on both sides of the Strait have been forced to detour through Hong Kong and Macao, or resort to the Kinmen-Xiamen mini three links. If the agreement is signed, these detours, and even charter flights, will be a thing of the past.

Maritime shipping detours have also had a negative impact. Beginning today, eleven Taiwan ports will be directly linked to 63 mainland ports. Ships will no longer have to detour through foreign ports. The savings in time and money will be considerable. Estimates are that 16 to 27 hours can be saved on each voyage, amounting to a savings of 15 to 30 percent in transportation costs. Based on current estimates of 4000 cross-Strait container ship voyages, this means a savings of at least 1.2 billion NT. Cross-Strait voyages are expected to increase dramatically, creating many more profit opportunities.

Cross-strait direct shipping will revolutionize cross-Strait economic and trade relations. Several ports will immediately experience a boom. These include Taipei, nearby Keelung, and Taichung, including Taichung Industrial Park. Even Kaohsiung can look forward to regaining its status as the world's largest capacity deep-water container port. According to preliminary estimates, cargo volume will increase 30 percent as a result of direct shipping. In particular, if Taiwan's ports become a southern China region container transhipment center, international shipping will also increase substantially. Do not underestimate the significance of this change. Taiwan's geographical location already gives it a competitive advantage. Taiwan may also be in the best position to become a regional transhipment center. In the past political obstacles deprived us of this unique opportunity. We must no longer pass it up.

The Republic of China has been politically isolated by the international community. It has suffered enough. If it is economically marginalized by the international community as well, then its circumstances will be even more dire. In two or three years, the East Asia free trade zone will gradually take shape. Many East Asian nations began planning long ago, formulating new trade strategies in response to new circumstances. While they were doing so, Taiwan remained trapped in a "no haste, be patient" quagmire, bickering endless over what constituted "effective management." Direct three links remained plans on paper. Add to this ideological quarrels, and who knows how much time was wasted, for no good reason. Manufacturers relocated, one after the other. Foreign operations pulled out. Taiwan's competitiveness declined. Now that the "da san tong" policy has finally been implemented, we truly are in a race against time.

The global financial crisis has plunged the world into economic recession. No one can guarantee that opening direct links will lead to immediate changes. After all, mainland China is also facing the same economic challenges. But at least this provides us with an opportunity. Financial and economic experts within the Cabinet, and industry leaders alike, are thinking about how to make use of this rare opportunity to renew their industrial competitiveness. The government is using the opportunity to expand both local and mainland demand, to attract foreign investors, and persuade foreign businessmen to establish operating headquarters on Taiwan, and to develop a regional operations center. Individual industries are thinking about regional deployment, how to establish new vertical and horizontal divisions of labor. Under "da san tong" these issues must be addressed as soon as possible.

中時電子報
中國時報 　2008.12.15
迎接大三通所改寫的兩岸新局
中時社論

封阻了近五十年，討論了近二十多年的兩岸大三通，正式從今天開始，邁出了全新的一步。這意味早就升火待發的兩岸海空直航及通郵將全面啟動，這其中包括海運部分不必再彎靠第三地，已經在實施的周末包機將擴大為平日包機，兩岸郵件也將縮短成兩天即可送達，這歷史性的一刻，究竟能為未來的兩岸關係造成怎樣的改變，目前真的還很難評估，但可預見對兩岸民間的互動，將形成相當深遠的效應。

先看平日包機部分，由於已擴大成每周對飛一○八班，這讓先前周末包機一票難求狀況立即改觀，再加上航線截彎取直，不必再繞行香港飛航情報區，等於大幅縮短飛航時間。以往來最多的台北與上海航線為例，如今一趟僅需八十三分鐘，所謂的上午赴上海開會，下午回台北吃晚飯的「兩岸一日生活圈」將正式成為現實。可預見這也將立即造福包括大陸台商及台灣大陸配偶在下個月春節返鄉上的便利，實施多年的「春節包機」算是正式邁入歷史了。

當然，平日包機依舊只是周末包機的擴大版，在輸運需求上還是無法取代正式的班機。以台灣與港澳間每周六、七百班的運量，平日包機每周一○ 八次的航班，其實仍不敷實際所需，而這也將是明年上半年江陳二次會談的重點之一。只要一切順利，俟兩岸正式完成簽署定期航班的航約，兩岸民眾目前已行之多年的繞經港澳第三地中轉、金廈小三通、甚至包機都將成為歷史。

海運截彎取直的衝擊同樣也很大，從今天開始，台灣的十一個港口，將與大陸的六十三個港口直接通航，由於不必再彎靠第三地，所節省的時間與航運成本相當可觀，據估計，每航次可節省十六到二十七個航行小時，可節省十五％到三十％的運輸成本，初步估計，以目前兩岸貨櫃四千航次計算，最起碼可省下十二億元，未來在航次還可望大幅增加的預期下，所可能創造利潤將更多。

可想而知，兩岸海運直航將全面改寫兩岸經貿的互動型態。最先受到正面衝擊的當然就是幾個港口，包括與台北有地利之便的基隆港，與中台灣工業區結合的台中港，乃至期待奪回世界深水港貨櫃吞吐量排名的高雄港，都將出現立即的榮景。據初步估計海運直航後貨運量將增加三成，特別是台灣的幾個港口若能發展成大陸華南貨櫃的重要轉運站，則國際航運量也可望大幅增加。不要輕忽這個轉變，台灣在地理位置上本來就享有相當有利的航運競爭優勢，也最有條件可能成為區域航運的中心，以往就是因為政治上的阻隔，讓這種得天獨厚的條件被糟蹋，如今這個機會真的不能再放過了。

記得我們曾一再提醒，台灣在政治上被國際社會孤立已經夠痛苦，如果經濟上還面臨國際社會的邊緣化，那就更嚴重了。按照時程推算，再沒兩三年東亞的自由貿易區將逐漸形成，許多東亞國家早早就已展開布署，設計全新的經貿戰略來因應新局，而就在這同一個時間，台灣卻一直都陷在要不要「戒急用忍」、該不該「有效管理」的爭辯紛擾裡，直航三通更是一直停留在紙上作業，加上意識形態的口水攻伐，不知道平白蹉跎了多少歲月，結果只見廠商不斷外移，各國營運部門不斷撤離台灣，台灣的競爭力更是不斷下滑。如今最起碼大三通啟動了，我們真的需要與時間賽跑了。

沒錯，全球此刻正陷入百年罕見的金融海嘯與景氣蕭條，沒人敢保證開放大三通就能馬上改變什麼，畢竟大陸目前也一樣陷入景氣不振的挑戰。但這畢竟是個機會，不論是財經內閣官員，或是產業龍頭，此刻都該思考怎麼善用這個難得的歷史機遇，重新擬定產業競爭的戰略。譬如政府在政策作為上，怎麼利用大陸擴大內需的契機，怎麼吸引台商及外商將營運總部設在台灣，怎麼發展營運中心、運籌中心等；個別產業則是思考怎麼透過區域的再布局，構築全新的垂直與水平分工策略等，這些課題在今天大三通之後，都該要趕緊展開謀畫了。