RIMPAC: Beijing and Taipei Conspicuous by Their Absence

RIMPAC: Beijing and Taipei Conspicuous by Their Absence
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 12, 2012

Summary: The South China Sea dispute is heating up. The Diaoyutai Islands dispute is deadlocked. The US-led RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific) naval exercises are currently under way. This is the largest scale exercise in the history of the world. Twenty-two nations are participating over a period of five weeks. All told they will mobilize 42 ships, six submarines, over 200 aircraft, and 25,000 troops.

Full Text below:

The South China Sea dispute is heating up. The Diaoyutai Islands dispute is deadlocked. The US-led RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific) naval exercises are currently under way. This is the largest scale exercise in the history of the world. Twenty-two nations are participating over a period of five weeks. All told they will mobilize 42 ships, six submarines, over 200 aircraft, and 25,000 troops.

The original purpose of the exercise was to test the ability of the United States to work with its Asian-Pacific allies. But the current exercise tried to please everyone. The attempt to create a unified command structure was a major undertaking. Never mind actual tactical drills. From a military perspective, it means far less than exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea. But from a political perspective it is very important indeed.

First of all, almost every country that borders the Pacific is involved in this US led exercise. Some may have only a single ship or single aircraft in the exercise. But these symbolize their military ties with Washington. Recently, while visiting Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced the eastward shift of U.S. Navy forces, into the Pacific Region. The RIMPAC exercises show that Washington is determined to stay in Asia.

This exercise was initiated in 1971. It was originally aimed at the Soviet Pacific Fleet. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the exercises were cut to one every two years. Its mission became increasingly blurred. It included rounding up pirates, disaster relief, and search and rescue missions. This year however, the scale suddenly expanded. In the past, the enemy was Russia. This year, even Russia was invited to participate. Mainland China on the other hand, was not. This of course has led to speculation. Apparently Mainland China has become the enemy in the RIMPAC exercises.

Before the exercises began, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, the U.S. Pacific Combatant Commander, told interviewers in Beijing that the exercises represented Washington's policy of firmness and flexibility. The implication was that although they would conduct exercises, they would first inform Beijing that the exercises were not directed at it. Beijing accused Washington of harboring ulterior motives. But at the same time it staged a lavish reception, saying that Beijing and Washington might fight but they would not split.

When Locklear was visiting Mainland China, he said he was not concerned about war breaking out in the South China Sea. The U.S. military has an obligation to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and free passage through other waters around the world. As for territorial disputes, he said Washington does not side with any of the parties in these disputes. He hoped that the controversies will be settled peacefully. But he said he was concerned about the growth of the PLA, and whether Beijing could ensure transparency. When interviewed by the New York Times Locklear stressed that the United States hoped the rise of China would lead to a constructive partnership.

These words naturally grated on Beijing's ears. Beijing suspects that its exclusion from the RIMPAC exercises was deliberate. Washington was using the opportunity to rattle its sabers and bolster its military alliances. As a result, Beijing has accelerated trials of its aircraft carrier in Dalian naval harbor. It hopes to quickly get up to speed. It hopes to weaponize its space technology. These are all seen responses to Washington's intentions. Beijing's live fire exercises in waters near the Zhoushan Islands is seen as a rival gesture.

Most Asian-Pacific countries participating in the RIMPAC exercise have doubts about the rise of Mainland China. The Huangyan Island and Diaoyutai Islands territorial disputes have heated up. Washington and Beijing are both seeking hegemony. This leaves these Asian Pacific countries in an awkward position. They are worried about Beijing's hegemony. They hope Washington will not withdraw from Asia. But they also worry if they get too close to Washington, they may anger Beijing and undermine economic and trade relations.

In many ways the Republic of China is similar to these Asia-Pacific countries. Economically it is dependent upon the Mainland market. Militarily however, it is dependent upon Washington. This is the reason for its vacillating foreign policy. Take the South China Sea dispute. The ROC is one of six nations claiming sovereignty, But its voice remains unheard. Beijing advocates cross-Strait cooperation in defense of Chinese sovereignty in the South China Sea. But according to Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Washington has discussed its South China Sea policy with Taipei. Washington says that Taipei is "very, very careful" about the Diaoyutai Islands issue. both privately and publicly. Taipei's situation is particularly delicate and sensitive.

The fate of Taiwan remains the most sensitive and difficult problem in Washington/Beijing relations. Cross-Strait relations are different from bilateral relations between Mainland China and other countries. That is why Washington cannot invite Taipei to participate in the RIMPAC exercises. Washington/Taipei relations are actually about arms sales. Arms sales reflect a tacit understanding concerning security. Retiring AIT Director William Stanton criticized Taipei's reduced defense budget, saying it has led to a cross-Strait military imbalance. The ROC Ministry of Defense is stepping up fighter procurements. It is unwilling to see Washington/Taipei relations suffer.

The RIMPAC exercises reflect the confrontation between Washington and Beijing. They reflect changes in the regional situation. They influence the subtle four-way relationship between Taipei, Washington, Tokyo, and Beijing. Taipei may not be able to respond. Maybe it should not respond. But it must confront a changeable and complex situation, It must negotiate its its way through a political minefield.

廿二國環太平洋演習 未見大陸與台灣
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.07.12

南海爭議方興未艾，釣魚台問題相持不下；由美國主導的「環太平洋」海上軍事演習正在進行。這場演習的規模為史上最大，共有二十二國參加，為期五周，計動員四十二艘艦艇、六艘潛艇，超過二百架飛機以及二萬五千名軍人。

軍演本來的目的，是要測試美國和亞太盟國間的作戰協同能力；但這次演習包山包海，單單要統一程序命令就大費周章，談不上實際戰術的操演，從軍事效用上來說，遠遠不及之前的美日韓三國演習，但在政治意義上卻很重要。

首先，幾乎所有濱太平洋的國家都參與這次由美國主導的演習，即使只出一艘船艦一架飛機，都象徵性地強調自己與美國的防衛關係；而美國國防部長潘尼達日前在新加坡宣示美海軍優勢兵力東移太平洋，顯係藉此次演習實際展現出美國要留在亞洲的決心。

這項演習其實始自一九七一年，原本是針對蘇聯的太平洋艦隊。蘇聯解體後，演習改為兩年舉行一次，項目越來越鬆散，只是圍捕海盜、天災救援等，但是今年規模陡然擴大，且連過去演習的假想敵俄羅斯都受邀參加，卻偏偏沒有邀請中國，這當然會引發北京猜測，中國此刻儼然成了太平洋演習的假想敵。

在演習展開前，主導的太平洋美軍司令洛克利爾到北京訪問，這是美國剛柔並濟的手法，意謂雖然將有演習，但先通報這不是針對你的；而北京雖然一方面猛烈批評美國別有用心，另一方面也盛大接待他，上演一場中美之間典型的「鬥而不破」的交手過招。

洛克利爾在中國時表示，他不擔心南海會有戰爭，美軍有保證南海的航行自由及保證於全球其他海域自由通行的義務。至於全球的領土爭議問題，美國不站在爭議的任何一方，希望爭議能和平解決；但他也表示，關切解放軍的成長，與能否確保透明度等。另在接受紐約時報訪問時又特別強調，美國只希望中國崛起能成為「我們有建設性的夥伴」。

這些話，中國聽起來當然刺耳。北京懷疑，太平洋軍演沒讓中國參加，美國就是要趁機顯示軍事實力，拉攏軍事盟友；於是，中國在大連軍港的航母連續試航，加快速度希望年底成軍，及運用太空科技於軍事方面等動作，都被解讀為因應美國意圖的行動。就在此刻，大陸正在舟山群島附近海域進行實彈演習，亦可視為分庭抗禮的姿態。

細數這些參加「環太平洋」演習的亞太國家，大多是對中國的崛起有疑慮的，尤其是最近黃岩島、釣魚台等領土主權爭議趨於激化；但他們在美中爭霸中的立場尷尬：因為擔心中國霸權的興起，所以希望美國不要撤出亞洲，但若太過向美國靠攏，又擔心會惹惱中國，危及經貿關係。

台灣在許多方面與亞太國家相似，經濟上沒辦法離開中國市場，在安全上卻也依賴美國，這使對外政策常陷於左右搖擺。譬如在南海爭議中，台灣雖是主權爭議的六國之一，但幾乎聽不到抗議的聲音；中國大陸不斷提出要兩岸合作，共同捍衛南海主權，但根據亞太國務助卿坎貝爾透露，美國曾經與台灣討論其南海政策，據美方的了解，台灣無論是公開或私下，都「非常、非常的小心」。至於釣魚台問題，台灣的處境尤其微妙敏感。

台灣問題是美國與中國大陸關係中最敏感棘手的問題，兩岸關係又不同於中國大陸與其他國家的雙邊關係，這也正是為什麼美國不可能邀請台灣參加環太平洋軍演的原因。美台之間其實是藉著軍售，來體現彼此之間的安全默契。在此一背景下，卸任在即的ＡＩＴ處長司徒文還批評台灣國防預算減少，導致兩岸軍力失衡；我國防部則正加緊推進戰機採購簽約程序，不願見美台關係出現波折。

這場「環太平洋」演習，顯現了美中交鋒與區域情勢的變遷，也多少影響了台美日中四邊關係的微妙氛圍。台灣也許不能亦不必有何回應，卻應面對此一變動中的複雜情勢，再次省思平衡各方的自處之道。