Can Xi Jinping Assume Decade Long International Role?

Can Xi Jinping Assume Decade Long International Role? 
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 27, 2013

Summary: The first country Mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping visited upon taking office was Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is only one year older than Xi Jinping. Putin's 11 year term largely overlaps Xi Jinping's 10 year term. Both men hope they can be long-term friends, and maintain long-term relations with Taipei.

Full text below:

The first country Mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping visited upon taking office was Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is only one year older than Xi Jinping. Putin's 11 year term largely overlaps Xi Jinping's 10 year term. Both men hope they can be long-term friends, and maintain long-term relations with Taipei.

This trip is the start of a decade long interaction between Xi Jinping and Putin. It is Xi Jinping's first step as the leader of Mainland China's global diplomacy.

Moscow has concluded that the United States planned the color revolutions in neighboring countries. Beijing has concluded that the United States' return to Asia" is intended to contain China. Objectively speaking, Mainland China and Russia need an alliance. But a close relationship between Mainland China and Russia does not necessarily mean that Mainland China and Russia will become allies against a third country.

Mainland China and Russia have formed alliances in the past. They have also had confrontations. Neither were ideal. As Beijing has said, it will not form alliances with other countries. It will maintain an independent foreign policy. This is probably in the nation's best interest. Outsiders have speculated about a Sino-Russian alliance. But the PRC Foreign Ministry in Beijing has repeatedly stressed that relations between Mainland China and Russia do not constitute an alliance, and are not directed against any third country.

In recent years, Mainland China and Russia have adopted similar stances in the United Nations. They have often joined forces and vetoed motions from the United States. For example, they vetoed the sending of UN troops to Iraq and military intervention in Libya and Syria. But that does not mean that Mainland China is anti-American. Before Xi Jinping became general secretary, he paid an important visit to the United States. When he took over as President, his first meeting with foreign dignitaries was with the United States' Secretary of the Treasury.

Similarly, the joint statement by Mainland China and Russia states that the two parties firmly support each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, security, and core interests. The highly sensitive Japanese media concluded that the Northern Territories issue between Japan and Russia and the Diaoyutai Islands issue between Japan and China motivated Mainland China and Russia to join forces against Japan. But Xi Jinping appointed Japanese expert Wang Yi as foreign minister. Also, the Japanese economic and trade delegation which recently visited Beijing was met by none other than Vice Chairman Li Yuanchao. Mainland China has reportedly invited Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso to visit the Mainland. This too, appears to be a goodwill gesture.

Mainland China is not preparing to form an alliance with Russia at the moment. But inner attitudes often change in response to outer circumstances. If the United States truly attempts to contain Mainland China, the latter may be forced to form an alliance with Russia in response.

Since taking office, Xi Jinping has attempted to establish a new type of relationship between the major powers. This relationship would include something new, but also something old. The CCP 18th National Congress Political Report declared that Mainland China would "Never claim hegemony, never seek hegemony," It reaffirmed Deng Xiaoping's "Maintain a low profile, remain calm, never take the lead." foreign strategy. It continued the Mainland's past foreign policy. But the new international environment requires a flexible response. It requires increased international cooperation. It requires increased responsibility. In global emissions, arms exports, and the global financial crisis, the world looks to Beijing, as a major power, to assume greater responsibility. Beijing should expect the same of itself.

Xi Jinping will visit three African countries. Reportedly they will receive a great deal of aid, including 20 billion US over the next three years. This continues Mainland China's "Third World" foreign policy. Past investments in Africa led to charges that it was plundering Africa's natural resources. But the African countries welcomed Mainland China. Mainland China's policy is clearly different from past Western colonial policy. Just how should one assist other countries? Xi Jinping discussed this issue with other BRIC leaders in South Africa. The BRIC countries have become synonymous with emerging economies. They have the same voice in the G20 that G7 members have in the G7. The theme of the current summit is "BRIC-African Partnership." A dozen leaders from African countries will participate in the dialogue. Africa has long been diplomatically important to Beijing.

Cross-Strait relations are unique. Beijing's diplomacy has an impact on Taipei. The relationship between the United States, Mainland China, and Russia was a large triangle. The relationship between Mainland China, the US, and Taiwan was a small triangle. The large triangle imposed constraints on the small triangle. The United States and Mainland China once established diplomatic relations to counter the Soviet Union. Mainland China and Russia now appear to be countering the United States. Either way, their actions indirectly affect relations between Mainland China, the US, and Taiwan.

Xi Jinping will be in power for 10 years. During these 10 years, Mainland China will "maintain a low profile." It will be a mature player on the international stage. As Xi Jinping noted on the 23rd, in his speech at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, mankind is now a "You include me, I include you" community of interests. In an era of globalization, the world hopes Mainland China will assume global responsibilities and agree that national interests can coexist.

習近平能否進入國際角色十年成熟期
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.03.27 04:14 am

中國大陸國家主席習近平就任後第一個出訪的國家是俄羅斯。俄羅斯總統普亭的年齡只大習近平一歲，普亭未來的十一年任期，會與習近平十年的任期幾乎完全重疊，兩人都希望做長期的朋友，並維持長期的邦誼。

此行是習近平與普亭密切重疊的十年互動之開始，也是習近平領導中國大陸邁向未來十年全球外交的第一步。

外界猜測，莫斯科既認定美國在策劃周邊國家的顏色革命，而北京認為美國之「重返亞洲」意在遏制中國，從客觀上看，中俄其實有聯盟的相互需要。但是，中俄雙方關係密切，並不意味著中國大陸與俄羅斯會結為聯盟，共同對抗第三國。

中俄兩國以往曾結過盟，也對抗過，似乎皆非最好的選擇。就北京來說，不與其他國家結盟，維持獨立自主外交，或許才是最佳的國家利益。針對外界所作中俄結盟的猜測，北京外交部也再三強調，中俄之間並非結盟的關係，不針對第三國。

近年來，在聯合國中，中俄的立場接近，往往聯手否決美國的議案，譬如出兵伊拉克，或是對利比亞與敘利亞的武力干預等等，但這並不意味著中國反美；習近平在擔任總書記前，才剛剛有過一次隆重的美國之行，而接任國家主席後，第一個接見的外國貴賓，就是美國財政部長。

同樣的，中俄兩國此次聯合聲明表示：在涉及對方主權、領土完整、安全等核心利益問題上相互堅定支持；日本媒體敏感的據此認為，日俄間存在北方領土問題，日中間存在著釣魚台問題，中俄兩國企圖合作對日本制約。可是在另一方面，習近平任命知日派的王毅為外交部長，而近日訪問北京的日本經貿代表團受到副主席李源潮的接見，接下來據說正在安排接受日本副首相兼財政大臣麻生太郎訪問大陸，則似是對日本表達善意的信號。

中國大陸現刻並未準備與俄羅斯結為同盟，不過主觀意願往往也會因客觀變化而轉變，如果美國真有遏制中國大陸的企圖，大陸也不得不與俄羅斯採取反制的合作。

習近平上任後，想要推動建立新型大國關係，其中有創新的部分，也有承繼傳統的部分；首先，中共十八大報告的「永不爭霸，永不稱霸」，是在重申鄧小平以來「韜光養晦、沉著應對、決不當頭」的外交戰略方針，延續過去中國大陸的外交路線。但是新的國際環境需要北京靈活因應，而越來越多的國際合作機制，也需要北京比以前負起更多的責任，從全球減排、軍火輸出，到金融危機，全世界都期待北京能夠進一步負起大國的責任，這也應是北京的自我期許。

習近平接下來訪問非洲三國，透露許多援助項目，包括未來三年貸助二百億美元，這是承續關於「第三世界」的外交路線。過去大陸投資非洲，曾經引發對非洲資源掠奪的批評，但是也有人觀察到，非洲國家非常歡迎大陸，認為完全不同於過去西方的殖民政策。究竟要如何協助，習近平在南非與其他金磚領袖們進行討論，金磚國家已經成為新興經濟體的代名詞，在Ｇ20中擁有與Ｇ7同樣的發言權，此次高峰會的主題是「金磚國家與非洲的夥伴關係」，有十餘位非洲國家領導人參與對話，而非洲始終是北京在外交上相當重視的地區。

由於兩岸關係特殊，北京的外交走向對台灣自有影響。過去美中俄關係是大三角，而中美台也有小三角的結構，大三角過去一直制約著小三角的關係，無論是美中建交，目的在制衡蘇聯，或是現在中俄隱隱然與美國相抗衡，都會間接影響中美台關係。

習近平將有十年任期，在外交戰略上，這個十年也將是中國大陸自「韜光養晦」至扮演國際要角的成熟期。誠如習近平二十三日在莫斯科國際關係學院演說中所指出的，人類愈來愈成為「你中有我、我中有你」的利益共同體，在全球化的時代，世人也期待中國大陸能夠體會利益共存，負起全球性的責任。