A Vote for James Soong is a Vote for Tsai Ing-wen
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
January 2, 2011
Summary:James Soong must make his position clear. Is "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" really his strategy for saving the nation? Soong says that if he drops out of the race now, "What kind of a person would he be?" But suppose he and Tsai Ing-wen succeed in "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" and promoting Taiwan independence on January 14? He can stop wondering what kind of person he will be. He will go down in infamy as a "Wang Ching-wei and Wu Sangui," as a traitor and a turncoat, He will have to answer to Soong Ta, his late father, who defended the Republic of China with his life, in the world hereafter.
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Some have said, "A vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen," James Soong is threatening to sue them. But "A vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen." This is all too clear.
This is the result of simple number crunching. The consensus is that Tsai Ing-wen could win as much as 47% of the vote, Ma Ying-jeou will then have to win 48%. Add 47% to 48% and one is left with 5%. In other words, if James Soong wins over 5% of the vote, Ma will lose.
We are assuming that Tsai Ing-wen could win 47% of the vote. Consider two points that support this possibility. One. In 2008 Frank Hsieh won 42% of the vote. The DPP currently enjoys more momentum than it did in 2008. Tsai Ing-wen currently enjoys more momentum than Frank Hsieh did in 2008. Therefore Tsai Ing-wen should be able to win at least 42% of the vote. Two. In 2004, Chen Shui-bian won 50.11% of the vote. The 3/19 Shooting Incident was a factor of course. But in the DPP still has the potential to win nearly 50% of the vote. The Democratic Progressive Party currently enjoys greater momentum than it did in 2004. Tsai Ing-wen currently enjoys greater momentum than Chen Shui-bian did in 2004. Therefore, Tsai has the potential to win nearly 50% of the vote. Given these parameters, the claim that Tsai Ing-wen could win 47% of the vote is highly persuasive.
As mentioned before, if Soong wins over 5% of the vote, Ma will lose. So the first question is, could Soong win 5% of the vote? The answer is yes, he could. Because 5% is 650,000 votes, Assume 150,000 votes island-wide. If James Soong receives 40 or more votes at each polling station, he can easily attain that number of votes. It is entirely possible.
In other words, whether Soong can win 5% of the vote is a matter of statistics. It is possible. In the 2006 Taipei mayoral election he won 4.1% of the vote. Conversely, if James Soong fails to win 5% of the vote, it means the electorate has matured and better understands world events. Now that would be a greater statistical and sociological anomaly. That would be far more improbable.
The only certainty in the current election, is that James Soong absolutely will not win. If Tsai wins 47% of the vote, Soong will have to win 48% of the vote. In other words, he would have to ensure that Ma wins less than 5% of the vote. But polls currently show Soong winning only 6 to 7% of the vote. Oddsmakers are giving him less than a 1% chance of victory. Some are giving him odds as low as 0.1%. Soong absolutely will not win. That much is certain. James Soong knows this perfectly well.
The vast majority of the votes Soong have won so far are Blue Camp votes. That is because Soong's campaign appeal is hardline reunificationist. No Green Camp voter is ever going to vote for Soong. Therefore every vote Soong wins will be a Blue Camp vote. Every vote Soong wins will increase the risk of Ma losing and and Tsai winning. Therefore a vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen, This is a simple fact, about which there can be no doubt.
James Soong is deliberately undermining Ma and assisting Tsai. But he contradicts himself. James Soong's core values are allegiance to the Republic of China Constitution and promoting cross-Strait rapproachment. He publicly affirmed Ma's ECFA as a "important effort." He openly criticized Tsai for repudiating the 1992 Consensus. He said it would have "serious consequences." These represent Soong's core values, Yet he is persists in toppling Ma, who made an "important effort" and elevating Tsai, whose election will have "serious consequences." Is this not a contradiction?
Nobody knows that James Soong is unelectable better than James Soong. Nobody knows better than James Soong that a Tsai Ing-wen victory would have "serious consequences" for the nation's constitution and for cross-Strait relations. When someone asked James Soong about the "5% difference between life and death," he said "The important thing is not the 5%, but who can prevent Taiwan's decline." But James Soong is doing his utmost to unseat Ma Ying-jeou and to put Tsai Ing-wen in control of the Taiwan independence juggernaut. He is personally ensuring Taiwan's decline.
James Soong can nurse all sorts of personal grudges against his rivals. But if he still gives a damn about his country or his compatriots, he has no excuse to lead 5% of the voters down the primrose path. He has no excuse to create "serious consequences" leading to Taiwan's decline. James Soong clearly knows he is undermining the Republic of China and harming Taiwan. But his Blue Camp supporters think he is championing justice and saving the nation. Do they really knot know James Soong is taking advantage of them? Do they really not know they are helping to elevate Tsai Ing-wen to the office of Republic of China President?
The election is dangerously close. Unless Tsai Ing-wen breaks through the 50% mark and achieves an absolute majority, or receives less than 45% of the vote, James Soong's votes will decide whether Ma Ying-jeou is elected. One percent equals 130,000 votes. Never mind claims that 5% will decide life and death. One percent could be all that is necessary to decide the fate of Ma and Tsai.
James Soong must make his position clear. Is "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" really his strategy for saving the nation? Soong says that if he drops out of the race now, "What kind of a person would he be?" But suppose he and Tsai Ing-wen succeed in "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" and promoting Taiwan independence on January 14? He can stop wondering what kind of person he will be. He will go down in infamy as a "Wang Ching-wei and Wu Sangui," as a traitor and a turncoat, He will have to answer to Soong Ta, his late father, who defended the Republic of China with his life, in the world hereafter.
2012.01.02 03:10 am