Japan, Do Not Become the Object of Universal Scorn

Japan, Do Not Become the Object of Universal Scorn
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 14, 2012

Summary: The Ma administration proposed an East China Sea Peace Initiative. On the one hand, it sent 120 mortars and 40 anti-aircraft artillery to Taiping Island. On the other hand, it responded to a possible move by Diaoyutai Defense Movement activists from the Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. It faces a complex and treacherous situation. It must avoid a crisis. It must seize the moment. It must refrain from inciting conflict. But it must not run from provocations. It must respond judiciously. It must find a way to make a bold breakthrough.

Full Text below:

Japanese lawmakers have threatened to set foot on Diaoyutai Island on the 19th. Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, including the Taiwan Region, the Mainland Region, the Hong Kong SAR, and the Macau SAR, claim sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. They have arranged to meet in the waters surrounding Pengjia Island. They will then proceed to the Diaoyutai Islands to proclaim sovereignty.

The current crisis was provoked by Japan. In April, Tokyo Mayor Shintaro Ishihara announced the "purchase" of the Diaoyutai Islands. In July, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda threatened to "nationalize" the "purchase" of the Diaoyutai Islands. Japan is in the grip of a new wave of populism. The Diaoyutai Island issue has become political a football. Rival Japanese politicians are determined to incite nationalist sentiment for own domestic political advantage. Chinese people from the Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, will not tolerate abuse. They feel compelled to defend their national territory. They demand justice. But in the eyes of Japanese politicians, their feelings mean nothing. These Japanese politicians are populist demagogues who care only about domestic, not foreign political sentiment. This makes them dangerous. It also makes it unlikely that they will achieve their goals.

Japan faces an unprecendent situation. For the first time in history, three territorial disputes have come to a head, simultaneously. Japan has disputes over the four northern islands with Russia, over Dokdo with Korea, and the Diaoyutai Islands with Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao. . The three disputes are clearly having an effect on each other. Japan's opponents may well join hands against Japan. Japan must not allow itself to hijacked by populist sentiment. It must not become the object of universal condemnation.

On August 10th, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak set foot on Dokdo. He attracted worldwide notice. Earlier, on July 3rd, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev set foot on Kunashir Island, one of the four northern islands. He declared that Russia would "never yield an inch of territory." Medvedev set foot on the four islands back in 2010 as well, during his term as president. Dmitry Medvedev and Lee Myung-bak have set foot on islands claimed by Japan. Japan's escalation in the Diaoyutai Islands has left it unable to respond to other disputes. They are taking advantage of this fact. They are using Japan's plight to gain leverage. As mentioned earlier, these disputes are having an effect on each other. Japan has three territorial disputes with three different nations. Naturally they could join hands against Japan. If Japan handles these disputes recklessly, it could encourage an alliance of sorts among Russia, South Korea, Mainland China, and Taiwan. The crisis could enter a new phase. Three conflicts are escalating simultaneously. Japan must not see this as merely an historical coincidence. It must take this very seriously.

These three territorial disputes are the result  of Japanese attempts to exploit wartime chaos. The Diaoyutai Islands dispute is the result of Japan's attempt to exploit the chaos resulting from the First Sino-Japanese War of 1895. It is now exploiting the Divided China situation to its own advantage and to the advantage of the US. China is currently weak. Japan is taking advantage of China's current weakness to prey on it. China may be divided. But the consensus among Chinese on the Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, is to make no concessions. Chinese in all four regions share a common history. No one in the four regions is willing to tolerate abuse. Japan is not the only country in the world with strong public sentiment.

Given the situation, Japan should consider two possibilities. One. After Medvedev set foot on Kunashir Island, and Lee Myung-bak set foot on Dokdo, Russia and South Korea gained an advantage. Japan currently occupies and patrols the Diaoyutai Islands. There it enjoys an advantage. To avoid escalating the disputes, it should practice moderation. If it insists on raising the ante, if Japanese legislators set foot on Diaoyutai island, if the Japanese government "purchases" the island, or worse, if Japan's Prime Minister sets foot on the islands, the consequences could be catastrophic. When Medvedev set foot on Kunashir Island, Japan merely recalled its Ambassador to Russia. When Lee Myung-bak set foot on Dokdo, Japan merely appealed to the International Court of Justice. Both cases were handled cautiously. Only with Diaoyutai Island has Japan recklessly ignored the status quo. On the contrary, it has raised the ante and upset the status quo.

Two. As previously mentioned, Japan must realize the error of its ways. Japan is not the only nation that has powerful nationalist sentiments. Other nations also have powerful nationalist sentiments. The main reason Medvedev and Lee set foot on their respective islands, was that the two nations have adopted democratic electoral systems. They must respond to public opinion. The Diaoyutai Island dispute will not escalate to the point where Hu Jintao sets foot on the island, mainly because Mainland China still has an authoritarian system that exercises restraint in diplomacy. It need not appease public sentiment on the Chinese Mainland. So far Japan's Prime Minister has not dared to set foot on Diaoyutai Island. It knows it must not play with fire. Taipei has attempted to mediate between Tokyo and Beijing. On August 5th, President Ma Ying-jeou proposed an East China Sea Peace Initiative. He reaffirmed our long held sovereignty, but said we were willing to shelve disputes, promote peace, and develop the resources jointly. He called on all parties to exercise self-restraint and not take increasingly aggressive action. These words may sound bland. But this is the only way to get to the root of the problem. In fact, the status quo is highly favorable to Japan. The status quo has been maintained through external constraints. Japan must exercise self-restraint. If it raises the ante and upsets the status quo, the long term results may not be nearly so favorable to Japan.

The disputes over the four northern islands, Dokdo, the Diaoyutai Islands, and the South China Sea islands, have already had an affect on each other. They have already led to a joining of hands against Japan. The US and Japan joining hands may counter this situation to some degree. But it will never solve the problem. Russia, South Korea, and China have disputes with Japan over the sovereignty of these islands. As one can imagine, this has the effect of containing Japan. It amounts to an alliance against Japan. The joining of hands between the Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao is especially intriguing. Japan must not allow itself to be hijacked by domestic populist sentiment. It must return to a sensible diplomatic posture. Enough is enough. Leave bad enough alone.

The Ma administration proposed an East China Sea Peace Initiative. On the one hand, it sent 120 mortars and 40 anti-aircraft artillery to Taiping Island. On the other hand, it responded to a possible move by Diaoyutai Defense Movement activists from the Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. It faces a complex and treacherous situation. It must avoid a crisis. It must seize the moment. It must refrain from inciting conflict. But it must not run from provocations. It must respond judiciously. It must find a way to make a bold breakthrough.

日本勿成眾矢之的
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.08.14 01:54 am

為回應日本議員揚言在十九日登陸釣魚台，兩岸四地民間保釣人士宣稱，定今日乘船在彭佳嶼海域會合，共同前往釣魚台宣示主權。

當下的尖銳情勢是日本一手挑起的。從四月東京市長石原宣稱「購買釣魚台」，至七月野田首相揚言將釣魚台購為「國有化」，釣魚台問題儼然成為日本政局新一波的民粹競賽。日本埋著頭只顧在自己的政客之間競賽操作民族主義，眼中根本不管中台港澳四地也有分別及共同的民族主義，不可凌辱、必須捍衛、必須伸張。日本這種只顧內不顧外的民粹政治，不但危險，亦難得逞。

日本現在所面對的，是歷史上首次北方四島（對俄）、獨島（對韓），及釣魚台（對中台港澳）等三處島嶼領土糾紛的同時同步升高。這三處紛爭顯然已出現了「相互牽動」的情勢，而日本的對造國家甚至也有潛在的「相互聯合」的可能性。日本不可陷在民粹氛圍中不知自拔，不要成為眾矢之的。

韓國總統李明博八月十日登獨島，引發舉世矚目；其實，更早在七月三日，俄國總理麥維德夫已先一步登上「北方四島」中的國後島，宣示「寸土不讓」（麥氏在二○一○總統任內亦曾登四島）；麥維德夫與李明博先後登上與日本發生領土爭議的島嶼，顯然皆是利用日本升高釣魚台形勢而無力兼顧之際，借力使力，此即前述「相互牽動」的情勢，而日本在這三處領土糾紛的對造國家，當然亦存有潛在之「相互聯合」的情勢；日本倘操作不慎，一旦激發了俄韓中台的某種「合縱」情勢，事態即進入了另一階段。因而，三處衝突在此際同時同步升高，日本不能只視之為歷史巧合，必須嚴肅面對。

這三處領土爭議，皆是日本利用戰爭時期的錯亂所造成；其中，釣魚台問題是利用甲午戰爭以來的紛亂，至現代又利用「中國」之分裂而由美日二國私相授受而生。這分明是利用「中國」積弱之際而巧取豪奪，然「中國」即使分裂，但中台港澳仍有無可退讓的共同立場；因為，四處皆有共同的歷史，也有不可凌辱的民意，而不是唯日本才有民意。

日本面對此局，至少應有兩種思考：一、麥維德夫登國後島，李明博登獨島，俄韓已占優勢；而日本在事實上已占有釣魚台的巡邏優勢，為免爭端升高，實應適可而止，若欲加碼到議員登島或政府購島，甚至未來出現首相登島的局面，即可能引爆難以收拾的後果。對麥維德夫登島，日本止於召回駐俄大使；對李明博登島，日本止於擬訴諸國際法庭，兩案之處理皆見保守。但豈唯有在釣魚台不知珍惜向日本傾斜的現狀，反而要加碼破壞現狀的道理？

二、如前所述，日本必須深悟，不是唯日本才有民族主義，別人也有民族主義。麥維德夫及李明博的分別登島，主要原因是兩國皆採民主選舉制度，必須回應民意。至於釣魚台的情勢不會發展至胡錦濤登島的地步，主要是因中國大陸在外交手段上仍保有專制的節制，而不是中國無民意；而日本迄今未敢走向首相登釣魚台的地步，自亦是深知不可玩火。再者，台灣在日中兩者之間，馬英九總統於八月五日宣示《東海和平倡議》，重申「主權在我，擱置爭議、和平互惠、共同開發」的一貫立場，呼籲相關各方自我克制，不要升高對立行動；這些話聽來平淡無奇，卻是在此時際釜底抽薪的不二法門。其實，現狀已是對日本傾斜的最佳狀態，而此一現狀是因外界的克制所維持；日本若不知自我克制，從長遠看，加碼改變現狀後未必對日本有利。

從北方四島，至獨島、釣魚台，到南海諸島，已然出現「相互牽動」又「相互聯合」的情勢。美日的「聯合」或許可以鎮懾情勢，但不可能解決問題；俄、韓、中對日本的島嶼爭議，至少在姿態上的「牽制」與「合縱」，不是不能想像；而兩岸四地中台港澳的「聯合」，尤其微妙。最關鍵的問題在於：日本不能放任情勢被內部的民粹政治牽著走，應速速回到理智外交的立場，適可而止，見不好就收。

馬政府一方面宣示《東海和平倡議》，一方面向太平島送上一二○迫擊砲及四○防空砲，另一方面又要因應今日可能出現的兩岸四地保釣事件；面對複雜詭譎的情勢，宜應避免危機，把握轉機，不製造爭端，不逃避挑釁，小心因應，大膽突破！