United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 10, 2016
Executive Summary: Beginning with the May 20 presidential inauguration and ending with the October 10 National Day celebration, Beijing has eagerly waited for Tsai Ing-wen to recognize the 1992 Consensus. But as everyone knows, Tsai Ing-wen cannot possibly bring herself to utter these two words. Her answer has been a refusal to answer. With the passing of the Double Ten National Day celebration, that much has been settled. Beijing understands this perfectly. It has not been waiting around for an answer. Instead it has issued stern warnings that "those who swim with the tide of history will survive, those who swim against it will perish”.
Full Text Below:
Beginning with the May 20 presidential inauguration and ending with the October 10 National Day celebration, Beijing has eagerly waited for Tsai Ing-wen to recognize the 1992 Consensus. But as everyone knows, Tsai Ing-wen cannot possibly bring herself to utter these two words. Her answer has been a refusal to answer. With the passing of the Double Ten National Day celebration, that much has been settled. Beijing understands this perfectly. It has not been waiting around for an answer. Instead it has issued stern warnings that "those who swim with the tide of history will survive, those who swim against it will perish”.
Tsai Ing-wen boasted that "As long as it is conducive to cross-Strait peace and the well-being of people on both sides of the Strait, I am willing to talk about anything". She knows of course that without the 1992 Consensus, no talks are possible. Her boast was merely an empty gesture, intended to cast herself as a peacemaker.
Tsai Ing-wen refuses to talk about the 1992 Consensus. Unlike Chen Shui-bian, she is not merely counting votes. Her motive is ideological. She considers the two sides two nations unaffiliated with each other. She naturally will not accept one China.
But Tsai Ing-wen must also realize that digging in on this issue is dangerous, and could even lead to a holocaust. Beijing's patience is not without limit. If she persists in her silence, cross-Strait relations may enter a new stage. The period from May 20 to October 10 National Day was a “cold peace”. What follows will be a “cold confrontation”. Most worrisome of all, “cold confrontation" could turn into "hot confrontation".
The two sides of the Strait are not merely at loggerheads. They are invoking the "will of the people". On the eve of the National Day celebration, Tsai Ing-wen spoke to reporters from the Wall Street Journal. She invoked the “will of the people”, to prove she would not crumble under Mainland pressure. The Taiwan Affairs Office responded. It also invoked the “will of the people”. It said, "Do not underestimate the will of 1.3 billion people on the Mainland".
Her National Day speech was no different. Tsai Ing-wen yet again underscored the “will of the people”. The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office reiterated its position as well, saying "With the will of 1.3 billion Chinese people as backing, no force can stand in the way of national reunification and national rejuvenation".
Both sides have invoked the “will of the people” to intimidate the other. This is a dangerous situation. The “will of the people” may become increasingly heated in response to such invocations.
Another concern is the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office response to Tsai's National Day declarations. It referred yet again to "national reunification". The last time it did so was 10 days ago, during a brief response to Tsai's vow to "resolutely resist pressure from China [sic]". Each time it referred to "national reunification", it spoke of “historic inevitability” or the “currents of history”.
In the past, Beijing rarely used the terms "reunification" or even "one China", in order to avoid touching sensitive nerves. Instead it used the term "1992 Consensus". Its reversion to terms such as "national reunification" indicates that Beijing no longer feels the need to tiptoe around the subject. It has concluded that it cannot lay its hopes on the “people of Taiwan”, but must instead lay its hopes on the “people of [Mainland] China”.
During Ma Ying-jeou's eight year term, Beijing implemented all sorts of agreements and policies to benefit Taiwan. Yet the people of Taiwan drifted further and further away regardless. They even elected Tsai Ing-wen. When Tsai Ing-wen took office, she repeatedly invoked the "will of the people" as a bargaining chip with the Mainland, much to its frustration. This inspired the Beijing authorities, who seldom speak of the "will of the people", to join the chorus and invoke "the determination of 1.3 billion Chinese people".
Following Tsai's National Day speech, Beijing relinquished all hope that Tsai Ing-wen would affirm the 1992 Consensus. It may conduct a thorough review of its Taiwan policy, and make an historic strategic shift. Its traditional “long leash” strategy may become a "short leash" strategy. The temptation to do so will be great. The Mainland is now strong enough. It is now much less fearful. It considers Tsai's rejection of the 1992 Consensus incomprehensible.
This being the case, cross-Strait relations following Tsai Ying-wen's Double Ten declaration will deteriorate. Tsai's declaration that she was “willing to talk about anything" may have been an escape clause. But Beijing's experience with Tsai has been very poor. It has been anxious since May 20. It was wary of falling into her rhetorical traps. Her declaration that she was "willing to talk about anything" will inevitably be seen as just another lie.
As relations between the two sides continue to decline, Tsai Ying-wen will find it harder and harder to revive the economy. Her anti-Mainland demagoguery may well backfire and be redirected at herself.
兩岸走入以所謂民意為號召的冷對抗
2016-10-12 聯合報
從五二○就職到雙十國慶，北京翹首期盼的無非「九二共識」四字，但眾人亦皆知蔡英文不可能說出這四個字；「未完成的答卷」，在她國慶文告後可算是塵埃落定。北京當然了然於胸，沒等到所要的答案，於是乃有一番「歷史大勢順之者昌、逆之者亡」的疾言厲色。
蔡英文豪氣干雲地說，「只要有利於兩岸和平發展，有利於兩岸人民福祉，什麼都可以談。」她當然知道，沒有「九二共識」，就沒有談的臺子。這番表露，就只剩一個蒼白而空洞的姿態，只為自己保住一點和平的名聲。
蔡英文不談「九二共識」的內裡，並不像陳水扁那樣只為計算選票，而是出於政治意識形態，認為兩岸是互不隸屬的兩個國家，而「九二共識」先陳明「一個中國」，她自然不能接受。
但蔡英文也應該知道，她堅持固守的這一條戰壕，接下來將是艱險多舛、甚至是烈焰遮天。因為，北京的耐心不可能無限展延，在她拒絕答卷後，兩岸關係可能進入新的階段。五二○到雙十國慶，若稱之為「冷和」階段；接下來，則應該是「冷對抗」的關係。令人憂心的是，「冷對抗」也有上升為「熱對抗」的風險。
兩岸如今不只陷入僵局，更進入了相互以「民意」為號召的對抗。蔡英文在國慶前接連接受《華爾街日報》等外媒訪問，都訴諸「民意」，表明不會屈服於中國壓力；而國台辦的回應也援引「民意」，聲稱「不要低估大陸十三億多民意的堅定決心。」
這次國慶演說亦然，蔡英文再度張揚民意。國台辦也毫不含糊地再次表明：「有十三億多中國人民的強大民意做後盾，沒有任何力量可以阻擋國家統一與民族復興。」
兩岸各自召喚某種危險的所謂民意，以求在氣勢上恫嚇對方；但是，民意的怒潮卻可能因為這種刻意的政治召喚，而變得日益攪動、翻騰、對立。
另一值得關注的是，這次國台辦對國慶的回應，再次出現了「國家統一」的字眼。前一次，在十天前，出現在國台辦回應蔡英文「力抗中國壓力」言論的簡短聲明中。而兩次談及「國家統一」，都說這是歷史的必然或潮流。
過去，北京為避免刺激台灣脆弱敏感的神經，甚少使用「統一」的字眼，甚至連「一個中國」都迴避，而以「九二共識」取代。近期頻密地出現「國家統一」文字，表明北京已不再顧忌，認定「寄希望於台灣人民」既已難以期待，今後必須「寄希望於中國人民」。
在馬英九的任內，北京自認以各式協議與政策惠台八年，台灣的人心卻與大陸愈行愈遠，竟然選擇了蔡英文。而蔡英文上任後，卻又屢次以「民意」作為與大陸對抗的籌碼，讓大陸深感挫折。這使得一向少談、甚至避談「民意」的北京當局，如今也加入了「民意」的大合唱，高喊「十三億多中國人民的決心」。
經過這次國慶演說，北京對蔡英文回到「九二共識」徹底絕望之餘，很可能藉此進行廣泛而深層的路線檢討，並可能作出歷史性的戰略轉向，從長年的「羈縻」思維，走向「圍堵」策略。如此轉向對中共具有巨大的誘惑，一方面中國大陸的整體力量仍在上升，令它更為有恃無恐；一方面則認為台灣已到難以理喻的地步，竟連「九二共識」都峻拒。
果真如此，兩岸關係在蔡英文這篇雙十告白之後，將墜入一個悲觀的走向。蔡英文雖留下了一絲細微的線索，宣示「什麼都可以談」，但她在北京的眼裡履歷甚差，北京從五二○就繃緊了神經，不願掉入她的文字迷陣中。這次「什麼都可談」，勢必一樣被認為不過是在故布疑陣。
無論如何，注定在兩岸繼續失分之後，蔡英文挽救經濟的嘗試也將更為吃力，而她所召喚出籠的抗中民粹，則不無可能調過頭來撲向她自己。
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