Chen is cutting Throats, Ma is plugging Holes

Chen is cutting Throats, Ma is plugging Holes
United Daily News editorial
translated by Bevin Chu
July 11, 2007

Comment: What can I say? The following United Daily News editorial is a breath of fresh air. It is flat out the best editorial I have read since the debut of Dateline Taipei. It truly nails Ma Ying-jeou's strategic myopia. If Ma Ying-jeou is too obstinate to heed repeated warnings from Deep Blue supporters and from the Pan Blue media, he will lose in 2008. His loss is one thing. A loss for Pan Blue political power on the island is another thing altogether.

Chen is cutting Throats, Ma is plugging Holes
United Daily News editorial
translated by Bevin Chu
July 11, 2007

Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou have adopted two very different election strategies. Chen Shui-bian is using Taiwan independence to consolidate his core constituency, while he manipulates real estate and stock prices and offers "entitlement of the week" bribes to swing voters. Ma Ying-jeou is attempting to win over swing voters by demonstrating "reverence for Lee Teng-hiu" and by jumping on the "join the UN under the name of Taiwan" bandwagon, even though these gambits cost him the support of his core constituency. The candidates' contrasting strategies can be divided into two parts.

First, the core constituency: Both Blue and Green camps have core constituencies. Relying exclusively upon one's core constituency will not guarantee election victory. But a candidate's core constituency is the engine, the driving force behind his election campaign. A political leader must maintain its fighting spirit and enthusiasm. Only then can his campaign gather momentum and win broader support. As things stand, the morale of the Green camp's core constituency is unquestionably higher, while the morale of the Blue camp's core constituency is relatively depressed.

Second, swing voters: Chen Shui-bian has been busy manipulating real estate and stock prices, and buying votes through political patronage, creating a bubble economy in which the economic fundamentals have not improved, but in which media-generated excitement may influence voter behavior. Therefore when Chen Shui-bian attempts to win over swing voters, he need not to stress ideology, he need only present the illusion of prosperity. By contrast, Ma Ying-jeou may hope to pick up a handful of undecided votes by showcasing his "reverence for Lee Teng-hiu" and by jumping on the "join the UN under the name of Taiwan" bandwagon, but he will still have to overcome Chen Shui-bian's "entitlement of the week" offensive.

Chen Shui-bian's election strategy, could be called "Taiwan Independence with a gilt edge." Measures such as "joining the UN under the name of Taiwan" provide the "Taiwan independence" main body. Presenting the illusion of prosperity and vote-buying by means of political patronage add a "gilt edge." Taiwan independence consolidates his core constituency. The gilt edge attracts swing voters. The intriguing aspect about Chen's strategy is that the Taiwan independence main body rallies the fundamentalist masses, allowing lower socio-economic level voters to feel as if their status has been elevated. These are the ones referred to in the aphorism, "Voting for A-Bian, even though their bellies are bian (flat)." Manipulating real estate and stock prices, and buying votes through political patronage, attracts better off swing voters. The net result is his Taiwan independence plank helps Pan Green fundamentalists overlook the fact that their bellies are flat from hunger. Whereas projecting the illusion of prosperity enables middle-class swing voters to ignore the issue of Taiwan independence. Kaohsiung doesn't have enough water, yet the DPP wants to build a steel mill. Kaohsiung's port facilities are steadily declining, yet the DPP wants to to build a pop music center. The ruling DPP regime has imposed a Closed Door Policy on the island, yet it wants to rename the Hua Guang District (Light of China District) the "Financial District." Obviously the gilt edge is vanishingly thin. By next year the copper base beneath the gold plating will begin to show. Nevertheless, this sort of "Taiwan independence with a gilt edge," will to catch the voters' eye and tug at the voters' heartstrings come election time.

Ma Ying-jeou by contrast, has no policy tools. All he can do is watch idly as Chen Shui-bian uses government resources to buy votes via political patronage. Ma Ying-jeou's only cards are his campaign platform and his individual style. Unfortunately Ma Ying-jeou's campaign platform and individual style inspire now only apathy in marginal supporters, and alienation in core supporters.

Some people may dismiss the reaction of Deep Blue supporters to Ma Ying-jeou's handling of the "reverence for Lee Teng-hiu" issue and the "joining the UN under the name of Taiwan" issue as fundamentalist hysteria. The truth is Deep Blue supporters understand that issues such as "reverence for Lee Teng-hui" and "joining the UN under the name of Taiwan" require responses. But they consider joining the Pan Green parade, marching behind Pan Green banners, and shouting Pan Green slogans, ill-considered, to put it mildly. Most people have no preconceptions about the newly completed cable car ride at Maokong. But nobody can accept the fact that no one thought to install air conditioning. Ma's mishandling of the Red Shirt Army protests and the Organic Law for the Central Election Committee battle are further examples. It is not that such challenges from the Green camp should be ignored. It is that Ma's methods of handling such challenges cast doubt on his ideological bottom line. As a result, Ma Ying-jeou has created a political dilemma for himself, in which rescuing his perimeter means sacrificing his core. He may not have lost his core constituency's political support on election day. But the erosion of his core constituency's enthusiasm and fighting spirit is a fact obvious to all. As we have seen, a candidate's core constituency is the engine at the heart of his political campaign. If the engine loses power, then the campaign loses momentum and loses any chance of attracting broader support. Besides, uncommitted voters have already been "taken care of" by Chen Shui-bian's patronage schemes. As matters stand, Ma Ying-jeou is struggling to pump air into a leaky basketball, a thankless task. He must offer the electorate a principled and consistent political platform that reaffirms his core values and rehabilitates his personal image.

The legislative election is coming up in six months. The presidential election is coming up in eight months. Both elections will take place within the framework of a "Ma Ying-jeou vs. Chen Shui-bian" showdown. As we can see, one side has access to abundant public funds with which it can buy votes by means of political patronage. The other side, meanwhile, can only struggle vainly to pump air into a leaky basketball.

陳水扁的割喉戰與馬英九的補洞術
【聯合報╱社論】
2007.07.11 03:53 am

陳水扁和馬英九的選戰策略大相逕庭。陳水扁用台獨來鞏固核心群眾的熱情，再用炒樓炒股及「一周一利多」等手段來爭取周邊的游離選票；馬英九則是以「尊李」或「入聯」來爭取周邊的游離選票，卻在核心群眾之間逐漸喪失了熱情與動能。這可分兩部分來說：

一、核心群眾：藍綠皆有核心群眾，唯僅憑核心群眾，藍綠皆未必能贏。但是，核心群眾畢竟是選舉的引擎，領導人必須使其維持高昂的鬥志與充沛的熱情，才能在選舉中產生帶動的作用與輻射的效應。就現今情勢看，無疑是綠色核心群眾的熱情較高，藍色核心群眾相對消沉。

二、 周邊游離選票：陳水扁如今用盡炒股、炒樓、炒匯及政策賄選的手法，來吹脹經濟泡沫；使得台灣在「基本面」毫無改善的情況下，竟然只靠「消息面」就炒出一股 聲勢懾人的選舉行情。因而，陳水扁在爭取周邊游離票時，即不必強調意識形態，只須炒作蒸蒸騰騰的繁榮幻象即可。相對而言，馬英九若仍想在「尊李」、「入 聯」的泥淖中撿拾幾張游離票，只怕難敵陳水扁「一周一利多」的攻勢。

陳水扁的選戰策略，可以稱作「鑲著金邊的台獨」。「以台灣名義加入聯 合國」等是「台獨」，炒作繁榮幻象及政策賄選則是「金邊」。「台獨」可以鞏固核心群眾，「金邊」則用以吸引游離票。最奇妙處在於：台獨鑲金邊，「台獨」主 要是用來召喚基層民眾，使社經地位較低者自覺人格昇華，肚子扁扁也選阿扁；另者炒樓炒股的實利，則是用來吸引較具社經條件的游離票。亦即，把「台獨」送給 綠營基層民眾，使他們忘了肚子扁扁；把鈔票送給炒樓炒股的資產階級，使他們忘了台獨。何況，連水都沒有，卻要興建大鋼廠；高雄港每下愈況，卻欲在港區興建 流行音樂中心；實行鎖國政策，卻宣稱要將「華光社區」改建為「金融中心」。可見，這些「一周一利多」的「金邊」，只是淺淺的一層到了明年大選後就會露出銅 胎的「鍍金」而已，甚至只是一層金色的泡沫。但是，這種「鍍金的台獨」、「金色泡沫的台獨」，在選舉中仍是光燦奪目，動人心弦。

回頭看馬英九，由於他完全沒有政策工具，只好眼看著陳水扁動用政府資源去打製「金邊」；而馬英九唯一的競選憑藉，只剩下論述與風格的競賽而已。但就論述與風格而言，馬英九如今的情勢似乎是：周邊游離、核心鬆動。

例 如，有人認為，馬英九在「尊李」、「入聯」等議題上不合深藍的口味，因此使支持者失望；實情卻可能是，藍色支持者當然亦知「尊李」、「入聯」等議題必須回 應，卻認為「拿香隨拜」的手法太過拙劣；正如大多數人對架設貓空纜車沒有成見，但無人能想像貓空纜車竟然未考慮到空調設備。類此事例甚多，處理紅衫軍，及 處理中選會組織法皆是如此；不是不應處理，而是處理的手法及境界令人質疑。於是，馬英九就陷入一種「救周邊，失核心」的困境；也許他尚未失去核心群眾的支 持，但核心群眾的熱情與鬥志日趨銷蝕，卻是有目共睹的事實。如前所述，核心群眾是選舉引擎，引擎失能，就不易產生帶動的作用及輻射的效應。何況，在游離選 票地帶，又被陳水扁的「金色泡沫」所籠罩。馬英九目前彷彿是對著一個有破孔的籃球打氣，自是吃力不討好；他必須設法建構一套可以自給自足的核心論述及風格 形象。

六個月後的立委選舉及八個月後的總統大選，皆無法跳脫「馬英九VS.陳水扁」的架構。當下所見，一方是用豐沛公帑打造的「鑲金的台獨」所發動的割喉戰，另一方則正在對始終不能「自給自足」的破孔籃球施行補洞術！