The War between Hsieh and Chen

The War between Hsieh and Chen
United Daily News editorial
translated by Bevin Chu
July 31, 2007

Frank Hsieh has returned from his visit to the US. According to his public statements he is waging a "Two Stage Struggle" with Chen Shui-bian, with March of next year as the line of demarcation between the two stages.

According to Frank Hsieh: First, any fallout from the "Join the UN Plebsicite" is Chen Shui-bian's responsibility, because "diplomatic policy is the president's prerogative." Second, he hopes the US will distinguish between him and Chen Shui-bian, and that US opposition to Chen will not cost him the election. Third, the purpose of the "Join the UN Plebsicite" is not to join the UN. Its only purpose is to stir up popular discontent. It is merely an election ploy. Fourth, the Democratic Progressive Party is currently under Chen Shui-bian's control, he cannot prevent the "Join the UN Plebsicite" from being held, otherwise the DPP might be split. Fifth, all these concerns will evaporate after he is elected in March next year. Chen Shui-bian will no longer be able to direct the course of events. The political deck will be reshuffled. As Hsieh put it: "All this nonsense will end in March of next year."

This is Frank Hsieh's "Two Stage Struggle Thesis." It defies normal political logic. Normal political logic declares: A presidential candidate during election season promotes his own political platform full force. His political party supports him whole heartedly. But it is not always possible to fulfill one's promises after one is elected. Frank Hsieh's political campaign is the antithesis of this. During election season he cannot freely promote his own political platform and his own vision for the future. If he does, Chen Shui-bian and the DPP will publicly contradict him, bringing him to his knees. Frank Hsieh's attitude is: "Let Chen Shui-bian make trouble up to March next year. After March next year, I will be in charge." During election season, Chen Shui-bian will command the spotlight. After the election, it will be Frank Hsieh's turn on stage. This is not conventional political logic. Still less is it normal political logic.

Hsieh's "Two Stage Struggle Thesis" says that during election season Frank Hsieh must patiently endure Chen's oppression. He cannot promote his own ideas or assert his own will. If he is elected however, he will boldly enter the arena, defeat Chen Shui-bian, and not allow Chen Shui-bian to continue controlling the post-March political scene. In effect, during the election there will be a covert Hsieh vs. Chen struggle. Following the election, there will be an overt Hsieh vs. Chen struggle. As we can see, the Hsieh vs. Chen struggle has already dominated and distorted the presidential election.

Unfortunately this "Two Stage Struggle" cannot possibly play itself out according to Frank Hsieh's convenient little script. If Hsieh follows Chen's lead, and resorts to such political gimmicks as a "Plebiscite on Taiwan's Future" or a "Join the UN Plebiscite" to win the election, or if Frank Hsieh wins the election due to Chen Shui-bian's endorsement, how will Frank Hsieh jettison Chen Shui-bian after March? Conversely, if Chen Shui-bian overplays his hand pushing a Taiwan independence agenda, and undermines Frank Hsieh's election prospects, will Hsieh really have the courage to break with Chen Shui-bian during the election in order to shield himself from the political fallout?

Besides, what we are witnessing is not merely a Two Stage Struggle between Hsieh and Chen. The DPP is currently under the control of the radical Yu Hsi-kuen. Deep Green party insiders also favor Chen Shui-bian. Therefore this struggle is actually a "Two Stage Struggle" between Frank Hsieh and Deep Green party insiders who support the ruling Chen regime. Deep Green ruling Chen regime supporters will not let off Frank Hsieh off the hook on election day. Even assuming they help him win the presidency, does that mean they are going to give Frank Hsieh carte blanche? Can Frank Hsieh shrug them off? Isn't Frank Hsieh's convenient little script, in which he "first holds back, then charges forward, first feigns weakness, then asserts strength, first defers, then dominates" nothing more than self deception?

The DPP has used its political infighting skills to seize the initiative in the upcoming presidential election. The Hsieh vs. Chen struggle is more vicious than the average person can imagine. Hsieh wants to defend the "Resolution on Taiwan's Future," to declare his opposition to a "Taiwan independence Plebiscite," to declare his opposition to the Taiwan independence movement, to declare his opposition to any future "Declaration of Taiwan independence," as expressed in his "Hsieh's Three Noes." Chen Shui-bian has lashed back, saying "Taiwan's future and cross straits relations must be decided by means of a plebiscite." Yu Hsi-kuen has been even more blunt, and advocated a "Taiwan Independence Plebiscite." Frank Hsieh responded by saying that "There is no need for a Taiwan independence plebiscite, only for a unification plebiscite." If this kind of confrontation were merely a game of "good cop, bad cop," that would be one thing. If on the other hand, this is the main theme of the Democratic Progressive Party's Two Stage Pre Election/Post Election Power Struggle, then it is actually a fight to the bitter end. Frank Hsieh may have some room for bobbing and weaving during the election, but if Chen Shui-bian and Yu Hsi-kuen are the ones credited with getting him elected, the national nightmare will not end in March next year, it will just be beginning.

Frank Hsieh has divided this struggle into "two stages." He hopes the US government and middle of the road voters will sympathize with the fact that he cannot call the shots during election season, and will pin their hopes on him calling the shots after seizing power. That is why Frank Hsieh assured the US: "Let Chen Shui-bian make trouble up to March of next year. After March of next year, I will be in charge." But even an idiot is not going to buy this rosy scenario. How is the US going to buy it? How are a majority of voters? How is Chen Shui-bian?

March is Frank Hsieh's line in the sand, not the DPP's, and not Chen Shui-bian's.

三月界線：長扁之間的「兩階段鬥爭」
【聯合報╱社論】
2007.07.31 03:45 am

謝長廷訪美歸來。總結其相關言論，不啻公開指出：他與陳水扁之間正在進行一場「兩階段鬥爭」，以明年三月為界線。

謝長廷的說法是這樣的：一、「入聯公投」的帳應算在陳水扁頭上，因為「外交權是總統權」；二、希望美國能將我與陳水扁區隔，勿因美國反扁而使我落選；三、入聯公投並非追求實際成效，只是為了煽動民氣，亦即只是選舉操作而已；四、民進黨現在是在陳水扁的操控之下，我不能阻止入聯公投，否則民進黨會分裂；五、但是，這一切紛擾，待明年三月我當選後，陳水扁將失去主導權，即可全盤改觀，「一切只鬧到明年三月為止」。

這就是謝長廷的「兩階段鬥爭論」，完全違反了一般正常的政治邏輯。正常的邏輯是：總統候選人在選季全力宣揚自己的政治路線與願景，所屬政黨亦全力配合支持其論述，唯有時未必在當選後能做得到；但是，謝長廷如今卻是反向操作，在選季不能自由闡發其路線與願景，陳水扁及民進黨且公開與他牴觸，迫使謝長廷不啻在告饒：「就讓他陳水扁鬧到明年三月為止吧，三月過後就看我謝長廷的了。」選季中一切看陳水扁演出，若當選才看謝長廷表演。這不是一般的政治邏輯，更不是正常的政治邏輯。

「兩階段鬥爭論」指出：在選季，謝長廷必須以隱忍面對長扁鬥爭，不能伸張自己的理念與意志；若當選後，謝長廷則將改以強勢面對鬥爭，必能鬥倒陳水扁，不容陳水扁繼續操控「三月以後的情勢」。亦即，選舉時有選舉時的長扁鬥爭，選後又有選後的長扁鬥爭；眼下所見，長扁內鬥儼然已凌駕並扭曲了總統大選。

然而，這場「兩階段鬥爭」絕無可能按謝長廷一廂情願的劇本演出。假如，選舉時謝聽扁的，且以「公投入聯」及「台灣前途公投」等麻辣議題炒熱選情，並因此當選；則謝長廷在陳水扁抬轎當選後，豈有可能命陳水扁「只可鬧到三月為止」？反過來說，倘若陳水扁以傾獨路線操控大選過了頭，致重傷了謝長廷的選情，謝又如何可能不自衛求生，而與陳在選季即告翻臉？

何況，眼前所見尚絕不僅是「長扁之間」的「兩階段鬥爭」而已；因為，民進黨此時掌控在激進的游錫?之手，而黨內深綠亦傾向陳水扁，則這場鬥爭其實是「謝長廷VS.黨內深綠挺扁當權派」的「兩階段鬥爭」。深綠挺扁當權派，在選舉時尚不肯放過謝長廷；則若把謝拱上了總統寶座，他們就會放過謝長廷嗎？或謝長廷就能甩掉他們嗎？這樣看來，謝長廷「先退後進、先弱後強、先賓後主」的「兩階段鬥爭論」，難道不是「自欺欺人」？

民進黨的內鬥襲奪並佔用了總統大選為戰場，扁謝鬥爭的慘烈超過一般人的想像。謝欲退守《台灣前途決議文》，宣示「反對台獨公投、反對台獨運動、反對宣布台獨」的「謝三不」；陳水扁竟立即回嗆「台灣前途及兩岸關係應由公投決定」，游錫?更直接主張「統獨公投」，而謝長廷又回稱「不必台獨公投，只有統一公投」。這類一來一回的唇槍舌劍，倘若只是分扮黑白臉也就罷了；否則即是民進黨內「由大選鬥到選後」的鬥爭主軸，在形式上分成「兩階段」，在實質上卻是一路鬥到底。對謝長廷而言，在選舉時或許尚有閃躲騰挪的空間，但若他一旦由陳水扁、游錫?等人主導輔選而當選，謝長廷及整個國家的噩夢就絕不會「到明年三月為止」，而是正要從明年三月才剛剛開始。

謝長廷將這場鬥爭分成「兩階段」，藉此希望美國及中間選民能同情他在第一階段選季的隱忍及身不由己，並對他在選後的第二階段即可奪回主導權寄予希望。因而，謝長廷對美國說：就讓陳水扁鬧到三月為止吧，三月我當選後就能將他制伏了！但是，白癡恐亦不會相信這種說法，美國會相信嗎？多數選民會相信嗎？陳水扁會相信嗎？

三月，是謝長廷畫的界線，不是民進黨畫的，更不是陳水扁畫的。