Will the Taiwan/US Split Worsen after Taiwan's "Provocations?"

Will the Taiwan/US Split Worsen after Taiwan's "Provocations?"
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 26, 2007

Comment: With the following editorial, the China Times has hit a new low.

The China Times can no longer see the Republic of China forest for the "nativist" Taiwan trees.

With the following editorial, the China Times is no longer a member of the "pro reunification media." It is no longer a member of the "Pan Blue media." It is no longer even a member of the "Pale Blue media."

It is now a de facto member of the Pale Green media.

It is time for the China Times to apply the DPP's "rectification of names" campaign to itself. It is time for the "China Times" to change its name to the "Taiwan Times."

Will the Taiwan/US Split Worsen after Taiwan's "Provocations?"
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 26, 2007

If you had predicted four or five years ago that the US would soon be constantly reprimanding Taiwan, probably no one on either the Taiwan side or the US side would have believed you. But today the US is criticizing Taiwan in harsher and harsher terms, through spokespersons of higher and higher rank. Yet Taiwan seems inured to such criticisms, and merely criticizes right back. If this trend continues, will Taiwan/US relations undergo some sort of fundamental change?

Just before Christmas, at a year end press conference, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice criticized the "Plebiscite to Join the UN" campaign as a "provocative policy" that "unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan strait, and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage." This is how the US is suppressing Taiwan's moves to join the UN, in private and in public, from bottom to top. Now its highest ranking officials have spoken out. That may not be the end of the matter. Whether Bush Junior will scold Taiwan remains to be seen. But the US government's diplomatic tune has already been set, from top to bottom, from ruling party to opposition party.

When Chen Shui-bian immediately lashed back, no one was surprised. After all, when it comes to elections, nothing matters more than victory, and Chen regards the Plebiscite to Join the UN as a panacea that guarantees victory. Therefore no matter how the US might rant and rave, no one is in a position to slam on the brakes and prevent the Plebiscite to Join the UN Express from derailing. Furthermore, the US is worried that Chen Shui-bian's next step following his Plebiscite to Join the UN is a declaration of Taiwan indepdendence. Beijing is worried that after the Plebiscite to Join the UN, the Democratic Progressive Party will officially move towards de jure Taiwan independence. None of these scenarios are part of the average persons' plans for the future. The average person thinks the Plebiscite to Join the UN is a long way off from Taiwan independence. After all, the ruling regime is not holding a Plebiscite on Taiwan independence. What's the US so worried about? What's Beijing getting so upset about?

This gap in perception is the result of Chen Shui-bian's total loss of credibility. Once the US lost confidence in Chen, it decided he was crazy enough to do do anything. including harming the people on Taiwan. Chen Shui-bian, on the other hand, saw that Taiwan's geopolitical and ideological value was something hard for the US to relinquish. Washington had no intention of watching idly as Beijing broke through the US's strategic line of containment in the western Pacific.

Therefore no matter how much trouble Taiwan makes, no matter how angry Washington gets, no matter how loudly Washington rants, it cannot allow its own national interests to be harmed. But waging a war with Beijing over Taiwan also harms the US national interest. Iraq alone has given America a splitting headache. If the standoff in the Taiwan Strait worsens, no matter what, the US is going to feel as if it is under seige. That's why it is more alarmed than the people of Taiwan.

In any event, the ruling DPP regime has decided to bet the farm. Ever since Chen Shui-bian's provocative brinksmanship racheted up cross straits tensions by manipulating reunification vs. independence issues, the DPP has gradually forced the US to take Beijing's side. The US government usually does not pay much attention to public opinion on Taiwan. It has underestimated the political impact of an increasingly Taiwan-centric public consciousness. It lacks a farsighted cross straits policy. It routinely resorts to ad hoc remedies. When something goes wrong, it always wants Taiwan to compromise and make concessions. If it doesn't hear any protests, it assumes everything is fine. As a result the public on Taiwan feels betrayed and less willing to trust the US.

The hidden concern is that the public on Taiwan will no longer trust the US, reducing US influence. The US's ability to control the Taiwan Straits will then be diminished. This will put the US's Taiwan Straits policy in a whole new light. It may not be entirely different from the past, but it will no longer be the same as it was. So far the US does not seem to be aware of this problem. It assumes that after election fever dies down, US/Taiwan/China relations will return to normal. As always, the US sees only what's in front of its nose.

Another problem is that differences between Taiwan and the US have arisen that appear to be irreconcilable. With democratization and the election process, a Taiwanese political consciousness is gradually taking root and growing. Within the framework of this new national consciousness, the continued pursuit of sovereignty, dignity, and international breathing space is something that any democratic country will pursue. But when Taiwan demonstrates this desire, it inevitably bumps up against a ceiling imposed by the international community and the US.

From the maintenance of security to democracy and freedom, the US has always been Taiwan's biggest backer. The US has continually encouraged Taiwan. How will it explain to Taiwan that Taiwan's democracy can only develop to a certain degree? That it cannot expect to enjoy the same status and dignity as other nations? To the people of Taiwan, this is unacceptable discrimination and hypocrisy. The disappointment and dissatisfaction felt by the Taiwan public is not confined to the issue of plebiscites. Taiwan's national growth and national interests, already appear to be in opposition with the US's.

But the US appears to be indifferent to this fundamental, far reaching problem. This being the case, if the storm over the plebiscite passes without incident, relations between Taiwan and the US will remain troubled. Compared to the Middle East and other regions, the cross straits issue has more room to maneuveur. But if the US is unable to formulate a farsighted cross straits policy, and procrastinates due to inertia, then Taiwan/US/China relations will remain mired in conflict.

中時電子報
中國時報 　2007.12.26
「挑釁」風波後，台美裂痕還會再擴大？
中時社論

　四、五年前，要說美國會一再嚴詞指責台灣，大概台美兩邊都無法置信。但如今，美國批評台灣的用語愈來愈嚴厲，出面官員的層級愈來愈高，而台灣卻似乎已經被罵皮了，一再頻頻回嗆。再這麼下去，台美關係是否將會出現一些根本性的變化？

　趕在耶誕節前，由國務卿萊斯主動在年終記者會上，批判以台灣名義入聯的公投是「挑釁性的政策」，「不必要地升高台海緊張，對台灣人民的國際舞台沒有實際助益」。這是美國從私下到公開、從低階到高層一連串壓制台灣入聯公投的動作，最後推出了迄今為止最高層級的官員，但未必就到此為止。不過，無論是不是連小布希都將會開口罵台灣，這已是美國政府上下一貫朝野認同的外交基調。

　陳水扁馬上反嗆，並不讓人意外，畢竟勝選為上，而入聯公投被他視為勝選的唯一靈丹。因此美國再怎麼疾言厲色，入聯公投也依舊像是出軌的列車，誰也煞不住。何況，美國擔心入聯公投的下一步就是陳水扁宣布台灣獨立，中共擔心入聯公投通過後，民進黨會正式走向法理台獨；但那些議程並不在台灣一般民眾的盤算裡，事實上，一般人覺得入聯公投和台獨相差很遠，又沒有舉行台獨公投，到底美國在急什麼、中共在跳什麼？

　這項認知落差，主要是陳水扁徹底搞壞了自己的名聲和信用，美國一旦失去了對他的信任，就覺得他什麼事情都做得出來，包括最瘋狂、將傷害台灣人民至深的事。另一方面，陳水扁也看準台灣在地緣政治和意識形態上的價值，是美國很難放棄的。華府當然不可能坐視台灣這個太平洋島鏈樞紐被北京所突破。

　所以台灣再怎麼無理取鬧，美國氣歸氣、罵歸罵，還是不能因此讓自己的國家利益受到傷害。但若說要為了台灣而和中共開戰，同樣傷害美國的國家利益。美國人光是一個伊拉克就傷透腦筋，台海這個僵局再發展下去，怎麼看，美國都覺得危機四伏，所以比台灣人還心驚膽戰。　所以台灣再怎麼無理取鬧，美國氣歸氣、罵歸罵，還是不能因此讓自己的國家利益受到傷害。但若說要為了台灣而和中共開戰，同樣傷害美國的國家利益。美國人光是一個伊拉克就傷透腦筋，台海這個僵局再發展下去，怎麼看，美國都覺得危機四伏，所以比台灣人還心驚膽戰。


　民進黨政府如今反正是豁出去了，自從陳水扁以挑釁的邊緣手法，激化兩岸緊張炒作統獨議題後，漸漸把美國趕到和中共一邊。美國政府平時不注意台灣民意，低估了台灣主體意識茁壯後的政治效應，也沒有前瞻性的兩岸政策。平時頭痛醫頭腳痛醫腳，出了事老要台灣妥協讓步，不吵就以為沒問題了。台灣民眾於是感覺遭到美國背叛，也降低了對美國的好感與信任。

　隱憂就在這裡，一旦台灣民眾不再信任美國，美國對台灣的影響力將會降低，控制台海變數的籌碼也會流失，這將把美國的台海政策置於新的操作環境中。即使不是和過去截然不同，至少也不再是完全相同了。但到目前為止，美國似乎還沒發現這個問題，以為選舉的激情過後，美台中關係就可以回到原點，依舊是過去只顧眼前的老毛病。

　另一個更值得注意的問題是，台美雙方的基本立場，已經開始出現難以妥協的矛盾。隨著民主化及選舉動員，台灣的主體意識正在逐漸生根茁壯，在這個國民意識下，繼續追求主權尊嚴與國際空間，恐怕會是任何一個民主國家都必然出現的趨勢，但當台灣展現這個意志到某種程度時，勢必就會碰撞到國際社會及美國設定的上限。

　從安全維護到民主自由，一直是台灣最大後盾、也一直鼓勵台灣的美國，如今怎麼向台灣解釋，台灣的民主只可以做到某種程度、不能要求擁有和其他國家一樣的地位與尊嚴？對台灣民眾來說，這是無法接受的歧視與偽善。台灣民眾的失望與不滿，不只在於公投一事而已，更在於台灣的國家發展與利益，已經和美國出現了對立。

　但美國對這個更根本性、影響更深遠的問題，似乎未加重視。如此一來，公投風波即使有驚無險地過關，台美問題仍然會繼續暗潮洶湧。比起中東等其他地區，兩岸問題其實有比較大的政策設計空間，但如果美國不能以前瞻的眼光構思新的兩岸政策，仍然因循舊有思考能拖則拖，那麼，台美中的關係將繼續陷在一次次的尖銳風波中。