America Officially Enters the Obama Era

America Officially Enters the Obama Era
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 21, 2009

On January 21, 2009, at 1:00am Taipei time, Barack Obama was sworn in as the 44th President of the United States. He delivered a 17 minute inaugural speech. Ever since he won the election, his every move has been the focus of domestic and worldwide attention. Obama, who has always been good at speechmaking, outlined his vision for the future. How will Obama faces the challenges ahead of him will be the real test, and will determine whether he becomes a great President.

Obama's election victory not only shocked the United States. It also sent shockwaves around the world. Past presidential elections meant foreign policy change at most. But there has never been someone with an effect on people like Obama.

First of all, Obama's election victory is the concrete realization of racial equality. According to polls taken before Obama was elected, only 35% of African Americans considered Dr. Martin Luther King's dream fulfilled. One year later however, Barack Obama has been elected. Now twice as many African Americans, 70%, believe King's dream has been fulfilled. In terms of socio-economic structure, the racial divide still exists. But in terms of political symbolism, the goal of the black civil rights movement, Martin Luther King's dream, has been achieved. On this point alone, Obama will go down in history.

Obama's election victory was of epoch-making significance not only for the United States, but for the whole world. America's image as a hegemon has been transformed. A member of a disadvantaged racial minority has become head of state through the democratic process. For the world's ethnic minorities, the American hegemon was merely the strong bullying the weak. Obama's election is a source of inspiration.

Although America has ushered in the Obama administration, and ushered out the Bush administration, the problems remain, and still need healing. Among them, one of the most serious is the War on Terror.

Withdrawal from Iraq is a top priority. But in order to avoid the mistakes of Vietnam, Obama must be careful about the transfer of power. He must support the government of Iraq via the democratic process. Troop increases may be effective In Afghanistan, but not in Iraq. Any incident during this period, such as large-scale suicide bombing attacks against U.S. troops, would plunge Iraq and Afghanistan into genocidal warfare. Any U.S. withdrawal would be delayed, and become a hot potato for Barack Obama.

Secondly, America is America. In America, unlike many developing countries, political retaliation is unfashionable. Many human rights groups are calling for the prosecution of senior Bush administration officials. In particular they want to discover whether it authorized the abuse of prisoners and committed human rights violations. But Obama has pledged to "look forward." He has received bipartisan support and does not plan on settling old scores.

But leaders who knowingly violate the law, who abuse power, are a no-no in democratic nations. Human rights groups are demanding an accounting. A comprehensive investigation is essential. Some European nations are even more determined. They have declared that if former high officials of the Bush administration go abroad, they will take them into custody. This may create problems for Obama's domestic and foreign policy.

The real test for Obama will be his first 100 days in office. A new president's first 100 days usually determines his historical legacy. This has to do with public expectations and with how aggressively the new president pursues reform. The public has high expectations for new presidents. Congress is usually afraid to oppose his initiatives. What a new president wants, he usually gets. But if the public's expectations are disappointed, either because they were too high or too unrealistic, it will soon become disillusioned. Other elected representatives will seize the opportunity to resist, and the result will be gridlock.

The most urgent issue is the financial crisis. Obama's popularity ratings are very high at the moment. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives are under the control of the Democratic Party. Passing major bills should be no problem. But there have been exceptions. Clinton encountered difficulty passing the National Health Insurance Act, despite a House of Representatives dominated by his own party. Bush encountered difficulty passing his immigration bill, even though his party held a majority in the House of Representatives. Obama has asked Vice-President Joe Biden, with several decades of experience in the Senate, to craft a First 100 Days plan for Congress.

The New York Times recently invited five authors of presidential biographies to write about the challenges five presidents faced during their first 100 days in office. Among these was Franklin D. Roosevelt, who faced the economic crisis known as the Great Depression. He was sworn in immediately after an emergency session of both houses of Congress. Six hours later he pushed through the Emergency Banking Act. We predict congress will follow the precedent established by Franklin Roosevelt, and approve any economic revitalization programs or astronomical deficit spending Obama proposes.

But this does not really solve problems. If anything, it is congress shirking its responsibility. If Obama is smart, he will realize policies seldom yield immediate results. Time and again he has attempted to reduce people's expectations. But eventually the public's patience will wear thin. Economic recovery will take time. Once this gap between expectations and realities appears, Obama will face his first real crisis of governance.

The next four years will be the Obama Era. But the Obama Era will also be Obama's severest test.

中時電子報
中國時報 　2009.01.21
美國正式邁入歐巴馬年代
中時社論

就在台北時間廿一日凌晨一時，歐巴馬剛剛宣誓就任美國第四十四任總統，並發表了十七分鐘的演說。從他當選開始，一舉一動就已經受到美國與全世界的矚目。而向來擅長演說的他也以感動人心的詞藻，描繪出他對未來的願景。但歐巴馬究竟將如何面對橫在他眼前的挑戰與難題，才是真正試煉他是否能成為偉大總統的關鍵。

歐巴馬當選的衝擊，不僅震撼美國，同時也在全世界引發巨浪，過去歷次美國總統選舉充其量僅是外交政策的變化，從來沒有一次能像歐巴馬般這麼深入人心。

首先，這是種族平等的具體實現，根據民意調查，在歐巴馬當選前，認為金恩博士的願景已經實現的美籍非裔人僅有三十五％，但是一年後，歐巴馬當選，有兩倍高達七成的非裔人認為願景已經達到。雖然在社經結構上，種族鴻溝依然存在，但政治象徵上，黑人民權運動的目的「我有一個夢」的願景已經達到，單憑這點，歐巴馬已可永留青史。

歐巴馬當選不僅在美國有劃時代意義，對於全世界也有激勵作用，美國的霸權形象更做了翻轉，原本是少數劣勢種族，可以藉由民主程序，成為國家元首，這對全球的少數民族，或是認為美國霸權只是以強凌弱的人，都是強烈的啟發。

對美國而言，雖然迎來歐巴馬新政府，告別布希舊政權，但所遺留下的問題，仍需療傷止痛，其中又以反恐戰爭的傷痕最深。

伊拉克撤軍，是當務之急，但是要避免越南覆轍，歐巴馬必須謹慎轉移治安責任，在民主程序下扶持伊拉克政府；而在另一個阿富汗戰場，增兵也許是有效方式，但不能隨便假設伊拉克模式可以套用。這期間若出現任何差錯，像對美軍大規模自殺炸彈攻擊、伊阿兩國陷於種族屠殺，都會讓美軍撤退的時間拉長，屆時燙手山芋就會轉成歐巴馬的問題。

其次，美國之所以是美國，不似其他的發展中國家，政治報復並不流行，許多人權團體主張要追訴布希政府高官的責任，尤其是調查是否曾授權虐待戰俘違反人權的罪行，但歐巴馬已表示要「向前看」，爭取兩黨一致的支持合作，不預備翻舊帳。

但領導人知法違法，濫用職權，是民主國家的大忌，人權團體堅持要把事情弄清楚，而展開全面調查是有必要的，部分歐洲國家更為激烈，宣稱要羈押出國訪問的布希前高官，這可能會對歐巴馬構成內政與外交問題。

但歐巴馬真正的考驗在任職後的一百天，新總統的頭一百天，通常決定總統的歷史定位，這與民眾期待有關，也與所推動的改革有關。總統剛執政，民眾有很高期待，議會不敢攖其鋒，要通過甚麼就通過甚麼，但如果讓期待落空或是有太高不切實際的期待，短時間後，民眾就會產生失望，民意代表們當然藉機抵制，結果自然改革寸步難行。

眼前當務之急莫過於經濟金融危機的迫切緊急，目前歐巴馬的聲望極高，國會參眾兩院又都是由民主黨所控制，本來通過重大法案應該是沒有問題的，但是過去曾經有過例外，柯林頓在自己黨占多數的眾議院，照樣通不過健保法案，小布希的移民法案也過不了自己同黨占多數的眾議院，歐巴馬已經委託在參議院待過幾十年的副總統拜登擬定一百天立法計畫，排定優先順序。

《紐約時報》日前邀請五位總統傳記作家，各自寫五位總統在第一百天所面臨的挑戰與難題，其中提到小羅斯福總統面臨大恐慌經濟危機，宣誓就任後立即召集國會兩院緊急集會，在六小時內通過了「緊急銀行法」。可以預期的是，對歐巴馬提出的任何經濟振興方案，任何天文數字的赤字預算，國會肯定會循小羅斯福先例立即通過。

但與其說這是解決問題，還不如說是國會卸責，聰明如歐巴馬者，當然知道政策難有立竿見影之效，所以一再在公開談話中企圖降低民眾的期待。但是民意的耐性終究會很快磨損，而經濟復甦則是需要時間，兩者一旦出現落差，就是歐巴馬真正統治危機的來源。

未來這四年，將是屬於歐巴馬的時代，但即將開展的這個時代，也將是對他考驗最嚴酷的年代。