Eight Months: The Difference between Ma Ying-jeou and Barack Obama

Eight Months: The Difference between Ma Ying-jeou and Barack Obama
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 22, 2009

Barack Obama has assumed the Presidency of the United States. But can his ultra-high popularity withstand the harsh test of reality? That remains to be seen. On Taiwan such doubts may even be amplified. People watched as Ma Ying-jeou win by a landslide, only to have his halo tarnished within a few short months. How can Obama avoid the same fate?

The Repubic of China and the United States of America are different. But Ma Ying-jeou and Barack Obama's backgrounds have a number of similarities. One. Both were minority candidates elected by all the people. Their successful candidacies demonstrate the meaning of ethnic harmony. So-called "mainlanders" in the Taiwan region, and African Americans in the US comprise roughly the same percentage of the total population, 13%. Two. Both Ma and Obama were preceded by men notorious for their recklessness, Chen Shui-bian and George W. Bush. These men ruled for eight years and two consecutive terms. Ma and Obama overthrew both their predecessors and their parties. Three. Both are Juris Doctors from Harvard University. Obama is 11 years younger, and less experienced politically.

Apart from these similarities, the biggest difference between the two is the eight month gap between their electoral victories. This difference may determine their respective destinies, Ma Ying-jeou was elected to rid the nation of the DPP's economic isolationism and separatist demagoguery. During his inaugural speech he said, "People must rise up, only then can Taiwan be reborn." The theme of Taiwan's rebirth brimmed with dreamy optimism. Many people assumed a new era of peace and prosperity had arrived. Who knew it would all come tumbling down amidst the global economic crisis? None of the world's nations has been spared. Ma Ying-jeou's "633" promises evaporated in an instant. Frustrated in their expectations, the people lost confidence and patience in the Ma administration.

By contrast, the global economy was already in a recession during the final phase of Obama's campaign. The American people are not going to blame the depression on him. Furthermore, Wall Street was the primary culprit responsible for the current wave of financial turmoil. This deepened public antipathy toward Bush administration incompetence and malfeasance. It made them to look to the new vision for America symbolized by Obama. Eight months was enough to allow the American people to recognize the Bush administration's responsibility for economic crimes, and to realize that Obama was merely attempting to save the economy. On this point, Ma Ying-jeou was clearly not as lucky as Obama. Because eight months after his inauguration, he has become the target of intense public dissatisfaction.

Public opinion has always been hard to fathom. This should be clear from the reversal in public attitude toward Ma Ying-jeou and Lee Myung-bak. Besides changes in the larger context, this has to do first with the individual leaders' ability and personality, and secondly with the nation's political structure and the electorate's political maturity.

Take Ma Ying-jeou for example. He won by a 58% landslide. This reflected the public on Taiwan's revulsion for ethnic demagoguery. They chose to join hands across this divide. But agitation by demagogues over the past few months has undermined this positive development. Blue vs. Green confrontation has resurfaced. Several Ma Ying-jeou nominated officials with Green political backgrounds have been implicated in scandals. Taipei and Beijing have sought to cooperate in investigating the Chen family corruption scandals. The Green Camp has attempted to capitalize on these, to create an atmosphere of confrontation. The superficiality and myopia of political demagogues are the biggest psychological obstacle to a society's efforts to transcend ethnic bigotry.

Actually, compared to America's long history of black vs. white race issues, Taiwan's Blue vs. Green conflict over the last decade is an artificially invented social division that has unfortunately become real over time. That is the saddest fact of all. A democratic nation such as the United States took 200 years to finally resolve stubborn issues of race. This shows how difficult it is to heal social fissures. Society on Taiwan was originally harmonious. Yet it has moved in exactly the opposite direction. Political demagogues have invoked "love of Taiwan," intentionally widening social differences and intensifying communal strife for their own selfish political interests. How many people can tolerate such cynical calculation?

Obama has assumed office wearing a halo. Can he summon up the wisdom the world expects of him? That will be the test of his administration. Amidst the Great Depression he has brought the American people a precious gift. He has inspired everyone to follow America's example. As we watch the inauguraton in Washington from faraway Taipei, we too may be inspired, alerted, and encouraged. Perhaps we can all complain a little less, and sympathize and understand a little more. In which case, we may feel a little less anxious and a little more confident about how to extricate ourselves from our current predicament.

八個月之差的馬英九與歐巴馬
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.01.22 03:17 am

歐巴馬就任美國總統，但他的超高人氣究竟禁得起多少現實的嚴酷考驗，舉世皆拭目以待。對台灣而言，這樣的心情也許更為強烈，因為人們眼看馬英九以高票當選到他魅力墜落，也不過是短短幾個月的時間；那麼，歐巴馬的一身璀璨光彩，又如何可能免於剝落呢？

台灣和美國國情雖截然不同，但馬英九和歐巴馬當選的背景卻有不少相似之處，可拿來互為對照。第一，兩人均以少數族裔當選全民總統，展現了族群融合的意義；台灣外省族群及美國非裔人口的比率極為接近，均在一成三上下。第二，兩人都在前任總統執政八年後締造了政黨輪替；兩人的前任，陳水扁和布希任內都因蠻幹而聲名狼藉。第三，兩人皆為出身哈佛大學的法學博士；唯歐巴馬年輕十一歲，從政資歷也淺得多。

但除了這些相似點，兩人就任時間相差八個月，卻可能是他們命運最大的分水嶺。馬英九當選時，扛著破除扁政府經濟鎖國及撕裂族群的期待，他的就職演說「人民奮起，台灣新生」的主調充滿樂觀夢想，許多人以為一個太平盛世即將翩然到來。不料，全球經濟危機卻轟然爆發，舉世各國無一倖免，馬英九的「六三三」承諾在瞬間化為泡影；人民也在由期盼而至挫折的心情下，對馬政府逐漸失去信心和耐心。

反觀歐巴馬，在他競選的最後階段，世界經濟已經進入嚴冬，美國人民不會把蕭條的責任歸咎於他。不僅如此，美國華爾街作為引爆這波金融風暴的禍首，加深了人們對於布希政府無能失德的厭憎，反而對歐巴馬所象徵的新美國願景愈寄予期待。亦即，八個月的時局落差，讓美國人民足以認知經濟衰頹的責任罪在布希政府，歐巴馬未來要負的只是挽救經濟的責任。這點，馬英九顯然沒有歐巴馬幸運，因為早八個月就職的他須承受沉重的民怨。

民意的走向原就難以捉摸，從人民對馬英九及李明博的愛憎變化，即可窺知。除了大環境的變數，這一則與領袖的個人能力和人格特質有關，二則也與各國政治結構及人民民主素質有關。

以馬英九為例，他以五成八的高得票率當選，反映台灣人民已厭倦族群政治，決定攜手跨越這道鴻溝。然而，在政治人物的操弄下，這幾個月來，原已漸形淡化的藍綠對峙竟又有升高趨勢。包括馬英九幾次提名綠色背景人物出任公職失利，乃至兩岸尋求和解及扁家弊案的偵辦過程中，綠營一直以街頭動員製造社會對峙氣氛。可以說，政治人物的淺薄和短視，是使社會無法走出仇恨的最大心障。

事實上，比起美國源遠流長的黑白種族問題，台灣的藍綠情結不過是近十幾年才被人為地製造出來的東西；它是虛假的族群議題，卻炮製出真實的社會分歧，這才是最可悲之處。試想，以美國這樣的民主國家，都足足走了兩百多年，才解開頑強的黑白種族情結，可見社會裂隙的彌合如何不易。而台灣原本是融洽的社會，卻有人反其道而行，以「愛台灣」之名來擴大社會的歧見和仇恨，只為了攫取自己的政治利益；對這樣險惡的居心，多數國人能任其宰割嗎？

頂著光環上任的歐巴馬，能不能拿出與外界期待相應的作為和智慧，這是他的大考驗。在當前的大蕭條下，他至少帶給美國人民一項珍貴的禮物：鼓舞大家朝美好的路上前進。從台灣遙觀華府這場熱力四射的就職典禮，也許可以得到一些啟發、一些警惕和鼓舞；也許大家能減少一些怨艾，增加一些同情和理解。那麼，對於台灣要如何走出當前的困境，也就能少一點焦慮，多一點力量。