KMT Must Confront Faultline at Leadership Level

KMT Must Confront Faultline at Leadership Level
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 30, 2010

Executive Summary: During the recent five cities elections, the outcome of the mayoral race between Blue Camp candidate Jason Hu and Green Camp candidate Su Tseng-chang took everyone by surprise. Jason Hu won his bid for reelection. But his margin of victory was so narrow his victory was an embarrassment. Ironically, it is the KMT that finds itself in a state of crisis. It went from ruling party to opposition party, then from opposition party to ruling party. Through all of this, the KMT's leadership crisis persisted, unchanged. Now that unfilled positions have appeared at the grassroots level, how long can one expect stability at the central government level?

Full Text below:

During the recent five cities elections, the outcome of the mayoral race between Blue Camp candidate Jason Hu and Green Camp candidate Su Tseng-chang took everyone by surprise. Jason Hu won his bid for reelection. But his margin of victory was so narrow his victory was an embarrassment. Su Tseng-chang was unsuccessful in his bid for Taipei Mayor. His margin of defeat was so wide, it too was an embarrassment. The falling and rising fortunes of Hu and Su, reflect the crises and opportunities faced by the two parties. The DPP has been presented with new opportunities, Su Tseng-chang may have been defeated. But DPP heavy hitters keep coming, one after the other. Ironically, it is the KMT that finds itself in a state of crisis. It went from ruling party to opposition party, then from opposition party to ruling party. Through all of this, the KMT's leadership crisis persisted, unchanged. Now that unfilled positions have appeared at the grassroots level, how long can one expect stability at the central government level?

In fact, the KMT's leadership crisis is advancing relentlessly from south to north. Jason Hu won by a paltry 30,000 vote margin. His opponent, Su Chia-chuan, the DPP's candidate for Greater Taichung City Mayor, lost. But he put on an impressive performance. Soon afterwards, he announced his intention of remaining a Taichung resident. Two years from now, he may become Tsai Ing-wen's running mate in her bid for the ROC presidency. He may even make a bid for the presidency himself. Suppose he attempts a comeback four years from now, and once again challenges Jason Hu? Will Hu be able to squeak by yet again? That is hard to say.

The reason why isn't necessarily whether Jason Hu did a good job. No matter how well a local official might do his job, nine years is a long time. Two more terms would be another eight years. For voters, "change" is always better than no change. Su Chia-chuan offered "change." People were impressed. After all, "change" is the main theme of democracy. During the first six years of Hu's nine-years in office, the DPP controlled the central government. He could not move upstairs. He could not return to the central government. The Ma administration has been in office over two years. Hu killed himself in Taichung holding down the fort on behalf of the KMT. Yet the KMT failed to arrange a successor for Hu, merely because he was in office? How could the KMT be so foolish?

The KMT found itself out of power for eight years. During this time, it learned what it was like to be out of power. Yet after the KMT regained power, the public was frustrated to discover that they KMT was still unable to offer the public people of talent. Nominees for cabinet members and elective offices were mostly tired old warhorses. If one repeatedly brings them out of retirement, and puts them back in the game, what young person is going to want to join the party? This is true at the cabinet level. This is also true in Tainan and Kaohsiung, where the DPP has ruled for at least 12 to 16 years. How much fresh talent has the KMT cultivated during that time? After Kuo Tien-tsai was defeated in Tainan, all he could do was return to teaching. He is unlikely to become involved in politics again in this lifetime. Huang Chao-shun campaigned hard in Kaohsiung. She suffered a painful defeat. During the next four years, Jason Hu will have to contend with another challenge from Su Chia-chuan. Does the KMT have anyone who can challenge Chen Chu, who has been in office for 12 years?

Kuo Tien-tsai is an academic who took up politics. Huang Chao-shun, on the other hand, is a member of a political dynasty. She got her start by campaigning at the grassroots level. From where else can the KMT recruit talent? The victorious candidates in the five cities elections were Hau Lung-pin, Chu Li-lun, and Jason Hu. All three were academics who took up politics, When they took up politics, the KMT still had a plan for cultivating new talent. Does the KMT still have a plan for cultivating new talent? Does it still allow ambitious elites in diverse fields to learn step by step how to serve their party and their country?

Following the five cities elections, local politics underwent a major change. The Blue north Green south strategic scenario does not appear as if it is about to undergo change in the near term. But the DPP has an abundance of fighting spirit. The Green south will relentlessly advance northward. Chiayi County was once an alien landscape for the DPP. But the DPP stopped at nothing. It went all out and recruited Chen Ming-wen. Chiayi County is now DPP country. Chiayi County is fast becoming an alien landscape for the KMT. Has the KMT ever taken the time and effort to consider whom its candidates will be for the next five cities elections?

An election is held on Taiwan virtually every year. The content and style of elections, large and small, are never the same. One cannot draw definitive conclusions based on past campaigns. But the one constant is the candidate. The candidate remains the most important variable during an election. The right candidate is half the game. But for whatever reason, the KMT invariably gets this half wrong. No wonder every election is an uphill battle.

The five cities elections are over. The 2012 presidential election and legislative elections are looming. The DPP has Tsai Ing-wen and Su Chia-chuan, Consider the results of the five cities elections. The DPP may have lost seats. But it received 400,000 more votes than the KMT. The DPP has experienced a massive surge in political momentum. By contrast, the KMT has taken on a sickly pallor. Leave aside the question of whether Ma Ying-jeou can rebuild the momentum the KMT enjoyed during the 2008 presidential election. The KMT is going to have a hard time maintaining its absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan. It will be all it can do to maintain a 51% majority. The KMT is consoling itself on passing its "midterm exam." But has it given any thought to how it will perform in the finals?

During the recent elections, DPP campaign propaganda adopted centrist rhetoric. It eschewed the "ethnic" (community group) antagonism and reunification vs. independence cards. The net effect was relatively appealing. If this is how the DPP intends to run its 2012 election campaign, President Ma will face a completely different campaign team as he makes a bid for re-election. How many fresh faces can Ma Ying-jeou present to the public? How many new appeals can he make to attract voters dissatisfied with the status quo? A campaign team must be able to pass the torch from one member to another. It must be able to demonstrate vitality and fighting spirit. Otherwise, how can it meet challenges from other political parties? During the five cities elections, the voters demonstrated wisdom. They used their votes to send a message to the two major parties. Wherever one finds opportunities, one invariably confronts crises. As long as one sees the crises, as long as one resolves the crises, one will always be presented with fresh opportunities.

國民黨應正視菁英斷層危機
2010-11-30 中國時報

此次五都選舉結果，藍綠兩位政治人物胡志強、蘇貞昌的得票結果最出人意料之外。胡志強因為當選但票差太近，贏得難看；蘇貞昌則是因為落選但票差太大，輸得離譜。然而，胡、蘇兩人的處境，卻反映出兩黨一跌一升的危機與轉機，有轉機的是民進黨，畢竟即使蘇貞昌敗，卻預告民進黨的戰將正在一棒接一棒；有危機的卻是國民黨，從執政到在野，從在野到執政，國民黨的人才斷層危機卻始終未變，特別是當基層經營出現空窗，如何奢望中央執政能長久穩定？

事實上，國民黨菁英的斷層危機，此刻正在從南向北一步步擴大蔓延。胡志強這次以三萬多票差慘勝，他的對手、民進黨提名的大台中市長候選人蘇嘉全則是雖敗猶榮，落選第一時間宣告繼續落籍大台中。可以想見，不論兩年後他是否要與蔡英文搭檔競逐大位、或不論競逐大位是成是敗，四年後，他若要捲土重來，再向連任的胡志強下戰帖，胡志強能否再次驚險過關，實難逆料。

其中原因未必是胡志強做得好或不好，基層父母官做得再好，連九年誰都嫌久，何況再兩任八年？對選民而言，能「改變」總比不改變要好，蘇嘉全訴求「改變」，強有力地打動民心，因為「改變」正是民主的主要精神。胡志強九年任期中，即使前六年因為民進黨中央執政，無緣再上層樓，重回中央，馬政府執政兩年多，他拚了命為國民黨堅守城池，國民黨豈能因為有胡志強坐鎮，就忘了培養後繼人才的重要性？

國民黨在野八年，重新執政後，最為人詬病者就是臥薪嘗膽，還是沒有人才，內閣成員與選舉提名多是老驥伏櫪，壯心雖不已，但老是從壓箱底裡找人才，哪還有年輕人願意投身黨政為志業？內閣如此，大台南和大高雄，從民進黨執政開始，至少也十二年到十六年了，國民黨培養了什麼人才出來？郭添財大台南敗選後，只能重回教職，此生大概與選舉絕緣；黃昭順苦心經營大高雄，慘然落敗，下一個四年，胡志強眼前已經有一個蘇嘉全可能再下戰帖，國民黨還有誰能挑戰同樣連任十二年的陳菊？

郭添財是學者從政，黃昭順則是政治世家、基層選舉出身，國民黨還能從什麼地方搜羅人才？這次五都當選的三位直轄市長郝龍斌、朱立倫、胡志強，昔日都是學者從政，他們當年學者從政時，還有國民黨有計畫地栽培，請問國民黨現在還有什麼栽培人才的計畫？一步一步讓學有專攻、且有志於政治的各個領域菁英，有機會為黨、為國效力？

五都選後，地方生態再次丕變，北藍南綠格局短期看不到改變的可能性，但因為民進黨有旺盛的戰鬥意志，南綠不斷向北推進，嘉義縣曾經是民進黨的沙漠，民進黨一不做二不休，硬是拉攏帶槍投靠的陳明文，沙漠變綠洲，現在嘉義縣快成了國民黨的沙漠了，請問：國民黨有時間和心力思考，下次縣市長選舉有誰是適合的候選人嗎？

台灣幾乎年年有選舉，大大小小選舉內涵和型態未盡相同，不能以一次選舉做定論，但不變的是，選舉最重要的就是候選人，人選對了就贏了一半，偏偏國民黨每次選舉都苦於「奠基的這一半」，難怪每次選舉都艱困。

五都選後，立刻面臨二○一二年的總統大選和立委改選，民進黨除了蘇貞昌還有蔡英文和蘇嘉全，以五都選舉結果的選票結構，民進黨即使席次輸了，但總得票數卻超過國民黨四十多萬票，民進黨上升氣勢依舊如虹，反倒是國民黨贏得臉色慘白，先不論面對未來總統大選馬英九還能否重拾二○○八的氣勢，至少已經可以預告：國民黨想要維持目前絕對多數的立法院，恐怕會很難，拚過半都得費盡力氣。國民黨欣慰於「期中考過關」的同時，有沒有想過期末考會是如何？

民進黨這次選舉，文宣走得是年輕中間路線，完全不打族群對立和統獨牌，確實相對吸引人，如果某種程度上這算是二○一二年大選的文宣操兵，可以想像馬總統連任之途將遭遇全然不同的競爭隊伍，馬英九能拿出什麼新面孔、新訴求吸引對現狀猶有不滿的選民？一個不能一棒接一棒展現生命力與戰鬥力的團隊，怎麼迎接政黨競爭的考驗？五都選舉，選民展現智慧，藉由選票直接告訴兩個政黨，機會何在、危機何在，只要看到危機、解決危機，就永遠有機會。