King Pu-tsung Will Maintain Balance between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington

King Pu-tsung Will Maintain Balance between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 21, 2012

Summary: The key problem on Taiwan today is that Taipei and Washington lack a common language, and Taipei and Beijing have yet to establish sufficient trust. For the Ma administration, national security, cross-Strait, and foreign relations are all under the control of "insiders." Amidst all the euphoria, it must not lose sight of its own identity. We believe King Pu-tsung will maintain the balance between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington.

Full Text below:

Cross-Strait, foreign affairs, and national security personnel have undergone a major reshuffle. Some say it is a dream team. Some say it is stretched to the limit. Some say it is a well-oiled machine. Some say it is a self-contradiction.

Most skepticism concerns whether the new personnel will upgrade or degrade the balance between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington. 

As we all know, the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington is the key to Taiwan's survival and development. The framework affects everything from national idenity and constitutional allegiance, to cross-Strait relations, diplomatic relations, economic development, and internal Blue vs. Green coopetition.

During the Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian eras, this triangular relationship involved Washington influencing what Beijing would do, Taipei and Beijing tearing each other apart, and finally Taipei and Washington finding themselves at odds with each other. In 2008 the Ma administration came to power. The situation changed. Beijing determined what Beijing would do. Taipei and Beijing successfully promoted peaceful cross-Strait development. Taipei/Washington relations improved as well. Beijing influenced what Washington would do. The current personnel changes have attracted much attention. The foremost question has been how they will affect the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington.

King Pu-tsung is now the ROC representative to the US. He is the key to the entire roster. Sources close to King Pu-tsung say that his appointment means the Ma administration sees Washington and Beijing as two major powers who are of equal importance. It means Taipei will not lean completely in the direction of Beijing. Green Camp leader Julian J. Kuo said Ma Ying-jeou's personnel appointments are "pro-US, and alienate [Mainland] China." Kuo thinks that "[Mainland] China will surely be furious." Both the Blue and Green camps have weighed in on the impact of King Pu-tsung's appointment on the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington. Debate over the current personnel changes focus on precisely this.

King Pu-tsung said the next year or two are critical for Taipei/Washington relations. We are about to initiate TIFA and TPP. We are about to join the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization). But the next few years are also critical to cross-Strait relations. ECFA is in advanced negotiations. Taipei is gaining greater international breathing room. It looks forward to cooperation with the new government in Beijing. Political issues may arise. This will be a difficult test for the new administration. This is a critical moment. Is this the appropriate time to declare that "Taiwan will not lean completely in the direction of the Mainland?" Was the Ma administration's intent merely to dispel the notion that "Taiwan is completely leaning in the direction of the Mainland?" If so, then wouldn't appointing King Pu-tsung as ROC Representative to the United States be a clear case of overkill?

Actually, the notion that "Taiwan is completely leaning in the direction of the Mainland" is a label the DPP attached to the Ma adminstration, It is a phony issue. Even the United States does not believe it. Therefore why would the Ma administration appoint King Pu-tsung as ROC representative to the US merely to dispel this phony rumor?

Let us look ahead. We have long reiterated that the first challenge Taiwan faces is the combination of FTA, TIFA, and TPP. This requires assistance from Washington. More importantly, it requires cooperation between Beijing and Washington. Washington's assistance and Beijing's resistance are all part of the framework. Washington is no longer be able to determine what Beijing will do. Beijing now determines what Beijing will do. If we can influence Beijing, Beijing may influence Washington. Perhaps King Pu-tsung as ROC Representative to the US, will be able to increase this influence.

King Pu-tsung's most distinctive characteristic is his symbolic value. It may also be his Achilles Heel. King Pu-tsung has been appointed ROC Representative to the US. Does this mean "Taiwan is not completely leaning in the direction of the Mainland?" Does this mean the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington will become more balanced? This alleged symbolism is foolish. We do not believe it was the reason King Pu-tsung was appointed. Someone with absolutely no sense of proportion concocted this nonsensical "reason" for King Pu-tsung's appointment.

We believe the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington will entail "Beijing determining what Beijing will do." for quite some time. If Beijing is willing to act, then so will others. Only then will Washington act. Those in charge must understand that in order to influence Washington, we must first influence Beijing. Only then can we ensure the ROC's economic prosperity.

King Pu-tsung has a new job. It is to bring greater balance the triangular relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington. It is not to stir up the pot and upset this delicate balance. King Pu-tsung should not be seen as a symbol of "not completely leaning in the direction of the Mainland." Beijing must not allow itself to be provoked by Julian J. Kuo's characterization. Washington must realize that if Beijing balks, the entire relationship could break down down. As the old American expression puts it, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

King Pu-tsung repeatedly declared that he "would not become a member of the government, would not become a member of the cabinet." But today he is ROC Representative to the United States. His disciple Wang Yu-chi heads the Mainland Affairs Council. His disciple Lin Chung-sheng heads the SEF. King is single-handedly managing both Taipei/Washington relations and Taipei/Washington relations. The personnel roster seems custom tailored to King Pu-tsung. Cross-strait interaction and Taipei/Washington relations must not be upset. King Pu-tsung must use a balance bar to walk a tightrope. He must not rob Peter to pay Paul.

The key problem on Taiwan today is that Taipei and Washington lack a common language, and Taipei and Beijing have yet to establish sufficient trust. For the Ma administration, national security, cross-Strait, and foreign relations are all under the control of "insiders." Amidst all the euphoria, it must not lose sight of its own identity. We believe King Pu-tsung will maintain the balance between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington.

金溥聰不會打亂台陸美平衡
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.09.21 02:37 am

這一波兩岸、外交、國安人事大換血，有人說是精銳盡出，有人說是捉襟見肘；有人說能如臂使指，有人說是自相矛盾。

最核心的一個議論焦點是：這份名單，究竟有益台陸美的三角平衡，或有傷台陸美的三角平衡。

眾所皆知，台陸美的三角關係，是台灣生存發展的脊柱架構；這個架構，牽動了自國憲認同，至兩岸關係、外交布局、經濟發展及國內藍綠競合等所有的政經命脈。

在李登輝、陳水扁時代，這個三角關係的政策動線，是「從華府轉動北京」；最後弄到兩岸撕裂，台美反目。至二○○八年馬政府主政，政策動線逐漸轉向「從北京轉動北京」，不但迄今兩岸和平發展，台美關係也更和睦並提升，亦可謂「從北京轉動華府」。因此，此波人事異動最受關注者，在於是否顯示台陸美三角關係的操作動線將有改變？

金溥聰出任駐美代表，是整份名單的主軸。近金溥聰的人士稱，金的任命，表示馬政府對美國、中國兩大強權的平等重視，「台灣不會完全倒向大陸」；另綠營人士如郭正亮則指出，此一任命顯示馬英九「親美遠中」，因此「中國一定會抓狂」。由此可見，藍綠雙方的這兩種說法，皆視金溥聰的任命為台陸美三角關係的調整，而這正是這一波人事異動最引致議論的焦點。

金溥聰稱，未來一、兩年是台美關係的關鍵時刻，將迎對ＴＩＦＡ、ＴＰＰ，及加入ＩＣＡＯ（國際民航組織）等重大課題。但是，同樣的，未來幾年亦是兩岸關係的關鍵時刻，包括ＥＣＦＡ的進階談判、台灣更大國際空間的爭取，與迎對北京新政府的兩岸磨合，及可能觸及政治議題等等，可謂沒有一張易答的考題。然則，在這個「關鍵時刻」，是否宣示「台灣不會完全倒向大陸」的適當時機？而若只是為了破解「台灣完全倒向大陸」的誤會，竟以任命金溥聰為駐美代表來因應，會不會下藥過重？

其實，「台灣完全倒向大陸」只是民進黨給馬政府貼的政治標籤，卻根本是個假議題，恐怕連美國也不相信；然則，為什麼馬政府必須用任命金溥聰為駐美代表，來為這個假議題「闢謠」？

瞻望前路，我們屢次提醒，台灣正將面對的首要挑戰即是「ＦＴＡ+ＴＩＦＡ＋ＴＰＰ」的大題目，這固然需要美國的協助，但其實更重要的是必須搞定北京。美國的助力，與北京的阻力，有其「系統性」的關聯。亦即，如果想「從華府轉動北京」，可能轉不動；但若能「從北京轉動北京」，即可能獲得「從北京轉動華府」的動能。金溥聰出任駐美代表，能不能增加這個動能？

金溥聰最特異的條件就是他的「象徵性」，但這也可能正是他的罩門所在；若以金溥聰出任駐美代表來象徵「台灣不會完全倒向大陸」，不啻宣告台陸美的三角將由平衡轉趨傾斜，則正是此一「象徵性」最愚昧的表達。我們不相信這是任命金溥聰的原因，而像是不知輕重者為金溥聰的任命胡亂安上一個最無厘頭的理由。

我們認為，台陸美三角關係在未來相當時間內，仍應以「從北京轉動北京」為操作動線；北京肯動，其他關聯因素都會動，美國也才能動得起來。主政者必須在「轉動北京／帶入華府」的微妙平衡中，開創中華民國的生機。

金溥聰的新職，應是在加強平衡台陸美的三角關係，而不是攪動這個微妙的平衡。金溥聰不要被貼上「使台灣不完全倒向大陸」的標籤，北京不要被郭正亮那類的言語挑撥了，美國則應知如果北京卡住，則整個體系就可能拋錨。機器如果沒有壞，就不要隨便修理。

金溥聰屢屢宣示「不入府、不入閣」，如今則自己駐美，而由子弟兵王郁琦掌陸委會，又用林中森「架空」海基會，可謂一手操持了台美關係及兩岸互動的國家命脈，而這張名單宛如為金溥聰量身裁製。唯兩岸互動與台美關係，絕對不能失衡，金溥聰應抓好手中的平衡桿走過鋼索，切勿出現扶了東牆西牆倒的局面。

台灣今日的關鍵問題，不在台美沒有共同語言，而在兩岸仍未建立強固的互信。對於馬政府而言，國安、兩岸、外交如今皆由「自己人」掌握，不要在「自己人」中失去「自己」。因此，我們相信，金溥聰不會打亂得來不易的台陸美平衡。