Taiwan New Zealand FTA: First the Mainland, then the World

Taiwan New Zealand FTA: First the Mainland, then the World
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 11, 2013 

Summary: The Economic Cooperation Agreement between Taipei and Wellington has been signed without a hitch. Cross-Strait relations should have no trouble keeping up with the times. Taipei's desire to join the TPP and RCEP will no longer be a distant dream.

Full text below:

Yesterday the Republic of China and New Zealand signed an Economic Cooperation Agreement (ECA). This is the first free trade agreement (FTA) signed with a developed nation or a nation with which Taipei lacks diplomatic relations. The agreement has considerable symbolic significance. Taipei and Beijing recently signed TISA. The signing of the ECA between Taipei and Wellington was completed without a hitch. This may soon be followed by an Economic Partnership Agreement (ASTEP) between Taipei and Singapore. These agreements prove that the Ma administration's "First the Mainland, then the World" strategy was correct and feasible.

New Zealand is Taiwan's fourth largest trading partner. Bilateral trade volume is not large. Last year trade amounted to 1.2 billion US. Taiwan's imports from New Zealand are mostly dairy products, fruit, frozen beef and mutton, and other agricultural products. Taiwan's exports to New Zealand are mainly petroleum products, machine parts, bicycles, and other industrial products.

Once the Taipei Wellington Economic Cooperation Agreement goes into effect, tariffs will be gradually reduced over a 12 year period. According to estimates, GDP will increase approximately 600 million US. Total employment will increase 6,200 person years. Manufacturing will increase 0.19%. Services output will increase 0.06%. These sectors are the principal beneficiaries. Agricultural output will be reduced by 0.29%. This sector will be the most negatively impacted. But as experts have pointed out, New Zealand is in the southern hemisphere. Their agricultural seasons are the opposite of Taiwan's. New Zealand's agricultural products are subject to tariff quotas or sub-annual tariff reductions. Products imported to Taiwan from Chile and Australia may be squeezed out. Therefore, the initial impact will be limited. Nevertheless, opening up Taiwan to agricultural imports is a sensitive issue. The authorities must communicate with farmers and the legislature to minimize controversy.

The Economic Cooperation Agreements between Taipei and Wellington, and between Taipei and Singapore have been signed without a hitch. The two countries account for only a small percentage of ROC foreign trade. But internally, the two agreements underscore the government's determination to promote FTAs. They also reduce public concerns about the TISA agreement between Taipei and Beijing. Externally, they may reduce other countries' political concerns over FTAs with Taipei. This is highly significant. Now our greatest concern is what should the government do next? With which countries should it negotiate FTAs? How can it promote Taipei's participation in the TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership Agreement) and the RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership)?

Beijing sees signing FTAs and participating in regional economic integration as the prerogative of a sovereign state. By exercising that prerogative, Beijing has established two political prerequisites for Taipei. One. Taipei must first conclude negotiations over ECFA and related agreements with Beijing. It must establish a free trade relationship across the Taiwan Strait. Two. Before Taipei negotiates and signs FTAs with others, it must first sign FTAs with Beijing. So far Beijing has signed FTAs with Pakistan, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland. In 2010 Hong Kong and Wellington signed a Closer Economic Partnership Agreement. Therefore from Beijing's perspective, once Taipei and Bejing signed TISA, the way was cleared for Taipei and Wellington to sign an ECA. The ASTEP signed between Taipei and Singapore was also acceptable to the Mainland. If it can be signed before the trade in goods agreement between Taipei and Beijing, then Beijing will have offered Taipei a gesture of goodwill.

The first batch of countries Taipei will negotiate FTAs with will of course be its main trading partners. These include the United States, the EU, Japan and the ASEAN countries, but not Singapore. Beijing's political framework however, may impose limits. Some have noted that the government intends to sign FTAs with Chile and Switzerland. Switzerland signed an FTA with Beijing only recently, on July 1 of this year. Chile and Switzerland conduct less trade with us than New Zealand and Singapore. Yet negotiations were more time-consuming. Taiwan's exports have been negatively impacted by South Korea's FTAs with other countries. South Korea is the ROC's primary rival. The ROC's FTAs with Chile and Switzerland are clearly not enough to increase our competitiveness vis a vis South Korea.

We must ensure that our "First the Mainland, then the World" strategy continues to bear fruit. The Ma administration must breakthrough and join the TPP and the RCEP. In late May, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Zhang Zhijun told the United Daily News the solution includes two keys. One. Quickly conclude ECFA follow-up negotiations, and increase cross-Strait economic cooperation. Two. Improve cross-Strait communications, because the process of communication is simultaneously the process of establishing cross-Strait political trust. Zhang Zhijun's statement did not depart from the Mainland's political framework. But it underscored a degree of flexibility in Beijing's approach to problem solving and policy formulation.

The Ma administration should accelerate negotiations over the cross-Strait trade in goods agreement and dispute settlement mechanisms. The highest priority is public peace of mind. The administration must ensure the smooth implementation of a full range cross-Strait policy blueprint, TISA, and a cross-Strait trade in goods agreement.

The government must remain forward-looking and pragmatic. It hopes to join the TPP and RCEP. It must improve cross-Strait communication. It must facilitate multipary dialogue and communication. It must emphasize the "big roof concept of China." It must promote regional cooperation and mutual trust. It must ensure Taipei's participation in regional economic integration.

The Economic Cooperation Agreement between Taipei and Wellington has been signed without a hitch. Cross-Strait relations should have no trouble keeping up with the times. Taipei's desire to join the TPP and RCEP will no longer be a distant dream.

台紐FTA：從中國大陸走向世界的實踐
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.07.11 03:47 am

我國和紐西蘭昨日簽署台紐經濟合作協定（ＥＣＡ），這是我國與已開發國家及無邦交國簽署的第一個自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ），具有可貴的指標性意義。兩岸甫簽署服貿協議，台紐ＥＣＡ即順利達陣，緊接著台星經濟夥伴協議（ＡＳＴＥＰ）近期亦可能簽署，足證馬政府「從中國大陸走向世界」的策略是一條正確可行之路。

紐西蘭是台灣第四十大貿易夥伴，雙邊貿易額不大，去年貿易總額為十二億多美元。台灣自紐國進口主要為乳製品、水果、冷凍牛羊肉等農產品，出口至紐國主要為石油煉製品、機器零件、腳踏車等工業產品。

台紐經合協定生效後，將分十二年執行降稅承諾。據評估，國內總產值由此將增加約六億美元，總就業增加六千二百多人次；製造業和服務業產值將分別增加○‧一九％與○‧○六％，是主要受益部門；農業產值則將減少○‧二九％，是主要受衝擊部門。但專家指出，紐國位處南半球，其農產品與台灣產季恰好相反，且紐國農產品均採關稅配額或分年降稅，並可能先排擠台灣自智利、澳洲進口之產品，因此初期影響有限。儘管如此，開放農產品進口事涉敏感，主管機關仍須和農民與立法院充分溝通，才能減少不必要的爭議。

台紐經合協定順利洽簽及台星經濟協議即將達陣，儘管兩國占我國對外貿易比重不大，但對內而言，兩項協議可宣示政府推動ＦＴＡ的決心，也有助降低社會對兩岸服貿協議的疑慮；對外而言，則可降低其他國家和台灣洽簽ＦＴＡ的政治疑慮，意義重大。現在，大家最關切的是：政府下一步要如何？可以和哪些國家洽簽ＦＴＡ？如何推動台灣參加ＴＰＰ（跨太平洋戰略夥伴協定）及ＲＣＥＰ（區域全面經濟夥伴關係）？

不必諱言，北京視簽訂ＦＴＡ及參加區域經濟整合為主權國家行為，因此對台灣設下兩項政治前提：一是台灣須先和大陸完成ＥＣＦＡ及後續相關談判，建立兩岸自由貿易關係；二是限制台灣洽簽ＦＴＡ對象必須先和大陸完成ＦＴＡ簽署。大陸迄今已和巴基斯坦、智利、秘魯、哥斯大黎加、冰島、瑞士等簽署ＦＴＡ，香港亦於二○一○年和紐西蘭簽署港紐緊密經貿合作協定；因此，在兩岸服貿協議簽署後，就北京立場，台紐ＥＣＡ上路最是順理成章。台星ＡＳＴＥＰ亦是大陸可接受範圍，若簽署時間能先於兩岸貨品貿易協議，則可視為北京對台灣釋出的善意。

台灣和個別國家洽簽ＦＴＡ的下一波對象，首選當然是主要貿易對手包括美國、歐盟、日本及新加坡以外的東協國家。惟因受限大陸政治框架，據指出，政府有意以智利及今年七月一日才和大陸簽署ＦＴＡ的瑞士為對象。然而，兩國占台灣對外貿易比重較紐、星更小，且談判曠日廢時，對解決台灣出口競爭力受主要競爭對手南韓等積極洽簽ＦＴＡ所造成的衝擊，顯然緩不濟急。

有鑑於此，為確保「從中國大陸走向世界」策略能夠持續開花結果，下一階段馬政府勢須在加入ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ上尋求突破。大陸國台辦主任張志軍五月下旬接受聯合報系專訪時點出解決問題的兩個關鍵：一是加速完成兩岸ＥＣＦＡ後續談判，深化兩岸經濟合作；二是雙方應該先溝通，溝通過程也是建立兩岸政治互信的過程。張志軍談話雖未脫大陸設定的政治框架，但也指出北京對解決問題的政策思維和一定彈性。

我們認為，在現階段，馬政府除應加速完成兩岸貨品貿易及爭端解決機制談判外，最重要的是要提出一套可以安定社會民心、全方位的兩岸政策規劃藍圖，以利兩岸服貿協議乃至未來貨品貿易協議在國內能順利落實推動。

另一方面，政府須秉持前瞻務實原則，擬定加入ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ的路徑圖，並及早規劃啟動兩岸溝通工程，從建構多元的對話及溝通平台著手，一方面強化在「一中屋頂」下攜手推動區域合作的政治互信，另方面就台灣參與區域經濟整合的可行方式凝聚廣泛共識。

從台紐經合協定順利簽署，我們相信，兩岸關係可以與時俱進，台灣加入ＴＰＰ及ＲＣＥＰ將不再是遙不可及的夢想。