Modest But Real Wealth vs. Vast and Grand Ambitions

Modest but Real Wealth vs. Vast and Grand Ambitions
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
April 1, 2014

Summary: The unshirkable responsibility of the the ruling KMT is to make people understand that cross-strait policy is the key to Taiwan's economy. The KMT must turn public opinion around. It must adopt proper procedures when it deals with cross-strait matters. It must communicate with the 30 something percent of the public who support the DPP. It must reduce support for a Closed Door Policy. Only then can Taiwan's economy entertain grand ambitions. If the KMT fails at this, it will not matter how much "modest but real wealth" it bestows upon the public.

Full text below:

Last month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs decided to increase the number of legal holidays next year by six. Many people praised the move. They said it would add to the peoples' "modest but real wealth." Predictably, students soon launched large-scale "anti-Cross-Strait Service in Trade Agreement" demonstrations and occupied the legislature. The peoples' newfound joy over "modest but real wealth" swiftly turned to anxiety.

The Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) is not only an economic issue. It is not only about an isolated agreement. It is not only about the legislative process. It is about Taiwan's larger survival strategy. After the CSSTA, a number of other agreements must also be signed. They include the Cross-Strait Goods Trade Agreement (CSGTA), dispute settlement agreements, and investment protection agreements. These also require legislative review. But given current opposition to the CSSTA, cross-strait trade faces numerous obstacles. The trouble is, after the student protests, public suspicions about the CSSTA have multiplied. Without a cross-strait economic opening in the foreseeable future, how much "real wealth" will six more legal holidays really offer?

The public is filled with doubts about the CSSTA. It is uneasy about an "economic invasion" by the Chinese mainland. But the main reason is that many on Taiwan still do not realize that cross-strait relations is the key to Taiwan's economic development. Even the DPP's own polls show that the public on Taiwan is more likely to trust the KMT on cross-strait economic and trade policy. But on individual issues, public support for the KMT vs. the DPP runs 40 something percent vs. 30 something percent. The gap is significant but not enough to make those who demand a Sinophobic, Closed Door Policy change course.

Political party support derives from the public. That is why it is difficult to link DPP politicians' ideological perspective to their bull-headed cross-strait economic and trade policies. The DPP's cross-strait policy is obdurate, yet 30 something percent of the public on Taiwan still support it. It is necessary to undestand why. Why have the student protests increased public suspicions about the CSSTA? We think the DPP's Closed Door Policy still has public support because the public on Taiwan still does not realize trade and economic globalization is something Taiwan cannot avoid.

Hundreds of governments across the globe are signing FTAS. Taiwan faces two kinds of pressure. One. Taiwan must aggressively join regional alliances. Otherwise its trade in goods will be squeezed out by high tariffs imposed by non-allied governments. Also, allied economies want to manufacture their own products. International and domestic manufacturers form alliances and set up factories in allied economies. This weakens Taiwan's investments, and hollows out Taiwan's industry. That is why Taiwan must become a part of international economic and trade alliances.

Two. The Chinese mainland is a major force in the international economy. Taiwan must reach an implicit understanding with the Chinese mainland. Otherwise it will find it almost impossible to sign free trade agreements with important trading partners. Therefore cross-strait relations are an unavoidable hurdle for Taiwan's economic development. If Taiwan cannot normalize cross-strait relations, then Taiwan's economy will not survive.

Take the first kind of pressure. The DPP apparently fully understands it. But it has yet to undestand the second kind of pressure. It is still grappling with it. It is still resisting it, all the way. During the last presidential election, Tsai Ing-wen set forth her "Entering [Mainland] China through the World" argument, as an alternative to the KMT's "Entering the world through Mainland China" argument. But her argument was wishful thinking. It failed to inspire public trust in the DPP. Its implementation involved all manner of obstructionism in cross-strait affairs. It constituted a major obstacle to globalization. This "autistic" Closed Door Policy harms Taiwan. But the effect has been gradual, like boiling a frog. People have not noticed it. That is why the DPP's cross-strait policy continues to receive 30 something percent public support.

The unshirkable responsibility of the the ruling KMT is to make people understand that cross-strait policy is the key to Taiwan's economy. KMT cabinet members rightly criticize the DPP for blind opposition of anything to do with Mainland China, and of ignoring the big picture. But they have yet to fully discredit the DPP's cross-strait policy rhetoric. This is probably the result of excess complacency. Taiwan's economic outlook is something we must face together. The KMT must turn public opinion around. It must adopt proper procedures when it deals with cross-strait matters. It must communicate with the 30 something percent of the public who support the DPP. It must reduce support for a Closed Door Policy. Only then can Taiwan's economy entertain grand ambitions. If the KMT fails at this, it will not matter how much "modest but real wealth" it bestows upon the public.

鎖國小確幸 何如開放大宏圖
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.04.01 01:46 am

內政部上月決定明年增加六天假日，許多民眾讚揚此舉有助提高人民的「小確幸」。孰料，短短時間的變化，學生發起大規模「反服貿」示威，並持續占領國會，民眾的「小確幸」歡愉轉眼就只剩下焦慮。

服貿不是一個單純的經濟問題，也不是一個單一協議的問題，或僅是立法程序的爭議，而是一個關涉台灣整體生存戰略的大題目。服貿之後，還有兩岸貨品貿易、爭端解決、投資保障等多項協議要簽，這些也都需要立法院審議通過；以目前服貿受杯葛的程度來看，兩岸經貿未來還有重重險阻要過。更麻煩的是，歷經此次學運，社會上對服貿心存懷疑的人恐怕只會更多。如果兩岸經貿開放遙遙無期，那麼增加六天假究竟能創造多少「確幸」，恐怕就只剩下一個大問號了。

民眾之所以對服貿協議充滿疑慮，除了是對中國大陸的「經濟入侵」感到不安之外，主要是不少台灣民眾迄未體認「兩岸關係是台灣經濟發展的關鍵」。即使民進黨自己做的民調，也顯示台灣人民比較信任國民黨處理兩岸經貿的政策基調，但在各項問題的答案上，國民黨與民進黨所受到的民意支持大概都是四十幾趴對卅幾趴，雖然差距顯著但卻難謂懸殊，這也使得主張「反中鎖國」者缺乏改弦更張的意願。

政黨的民意基礎在人民，因此，外界不宜只從民進黨政治人物意識形態的角度，去談論其兩岸經貿政策的畏縮與僵化；而需要理解：為什麼民進黨如此僵化的兩岸政策，竟然還有卅幾趴台灣民意的支持？為什麼學生運動之後，社會上對服貿協定的疑慮只會增加？我們認為，近乎鎖國的兩岸政策之所以在台灣還有票房，就是因為民眾還沒有真正認清台灣在全球化下所須面對的經貿形勢。

在全球百餘國縱橫交錯互簽ＦＴＡ結盟的架構下，台灣面對的是兩重壓力。其一，台灣若不積極加入區域結盟，不但商品貿易將因為非結盟國關稅特高而受到擠壓，更會因為結盟國間商品自製率的要求，而使得國際與本國廠商紛紛去結盟國設廠投資，進而造成台灣投資衰退、產業空洞化。準此，台灣絕對有必須加入國際經貿結盟的壓力。

其二，由於中國大陸在國際經濟上的強勢，台灣若未取得對岸的默契，國際重要貿易夥伴幾乎不可能與我國簽署任何自由貿易協定。因此，兩岸關係幾乎是台灣經濟發展無可迴避的關卡。可以肯定地說，如果不能平順地處理兩岸關係，那麼未來台灣經濟就注定是坎坷險阻的。

對於上述第一重壓力，民進黨顯然也深有體會；但是，他們對於第二重壓力的認知與處理，則仍未能理出頭緒，而有相當的掙扎和抗拒。蔡英文上次總統大選時提出「通過世界走進中國」的論述，以與國民黨「經過中國走進世界」區隔。但這種一廂情願的觀點，不但不利於民進黨獲得人民信任，其在操作面所呈現的種種杯葛兩岸事務的舉措，更是拖累台灣邁向全球化的重大障礙。但是，這種鎖國自閉對台灣經濟的危害有如溫水煮青蛙，不容易一時之間即讓人民了然於胸。這就是民進黨的兩岸政策至今還能有三成多民意支持的原因。

我們認為，讓人民了解「兩岸政策是台灣經濟的關鍵」，其實是執政黨無可迴避的責任。國民黨閣員光是指責民進黨逢中必反、不識大體，卻不能積極提出破解民進黨兩岸政策的一套論述，恐怕也是心態上過於安逸所致。台灣的經濟前景是大家要共同面對的，國民黨必須要有扭轉民意的完整論述，必須在處理兩岸事務時力求程序之正當，並及早向那卅幾趴的民眾進行充分的溝通，把反中鎖國的支持度大幅降低，台灣的經濟才可能有所宏圖。若是不此之圖，釋出再多小確幸，恐怕都於事無補。