Trust in Taiwan's Stability

Trust in Taiwan's Stability
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
March 28, 2014

Summary: The current political storm is the result of long-term social divisions. Like a rash, it requires time for detoxification. Taiwan has a stable society. People need not be overly concerned. But just as someone must sound the storm alert, someone must end the storm alert. The Ma administration must decide wisely. The community must act as a stabilizing force. Together they must contribute to ending the storm as soon as possible.

Full text below:

The Sunflower student movement continues its protest. The Legislative Yuan grounds remain occupied. Legislative Yuan operations remain paralyzed. The President and Speaker of the Legislature remain at arms length and in opposition. Their moves remain out of sync. They have left the public the impression that they are both passing the buck. The ruling and opposition parties remain at loggerheads. They lack mutual trust. In particular, the students covertly support the opposition DPP. Therefore it has nothing to fear. The ruling and opposition parties have consulted three times but to no avail. No solution to the impasse has been found.

The deadlock could have been easily resolved. President Ma declared that the government was willing to dialogue with the students. But the two sides did not trust each other enough. Contacts and dialogue between the two sides yielded no concrete progress. Yesterday, student leaders publicly announced the cessation of all dialogue. They even organized a protest march on Ketegelan Boulevard to escalate the confrontation.

Within the legislature, the KMT legislative caucus made an apparently genuine goodwill gesture. But the DPP was in no mood to compromise. Eventually the KMT caucus' goodwill gesture was rescinded by KMT Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang, who said, "I urge the ruling and opposition parties to propose a solution consistent with legislative procedure as soon as possible. I will then convene ruling and opposition party consultations as soon as possible."

The number of students at the protest sie has diminished. Student stamina and willpower are approaching a breaking point. But student movement leaders have neither seized upon nor proposed a dignified exit strategy. All manner of violence occurs daily at the legislature among legislators, police, students, and reporters. The atmosphere is volatile. Violence may erupte at any moment. The situation can easily get out of hand.

No progress has been made regarding dialogue and consultation. Everything has apparently returned to square one. Square one is the source of political opposition, the source of social division, and the source of public insecurity on Taiwan. It is the source of uncertainty in cross-strait relations. Political leaders must cease being selfish, and confront the current crisis.

The student movement originally targeted the Cross-Strait Agreement in Trade in Services. In fact, the outbreak was the result of years of accumulated pressure. First, there is pro-Mainland vs. anti-Mainland sentiment. This is a critical factor in Taiwan's development. Between 2008 and now, cross-strait relations have been on a path of peaceful development. But solutions have not been found for Taiwan's internal divisions.

Secondly, there is a society-wide fear of the Mainland. Expanded cross-strait exchanges have been an enormous benefit to both sides of the Strait. But increase contacts between the two sides has also increased distrust toward the Mainland. The Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services means the two sides will be in closer touch with each other. The economic, social, and cultural exchanges may provoke emotional apprehension toward the Mainland, and concerns about Mainland influence.

Thirdly, the Ma administration's image of ineptitude may not be justified, but it reflects what many people believe. Many people believe the Ma administration is incompetent and unable to defend the interests of ordinary people on Taiwan.

Fourthly, the constitutional framework of the ROC contains shortcomings. Presidential power is monopolized by a single individual. The Executive Yuan and Legislative Yuan never read from the same page. The political parties who come to power have never worked out the proper power relationship between the party and the administration, or between the presidential office, the executive yuan, and the legislative party caucus. The current dispute has shone a light on many of these problems.

The ruling authorities face a critical choice. Based on the current situation, they face a triple crisis. First, there is the immediate crisis of confidence in the regime. The student movement is showing signs of decline. But if the government fails to demonstrate sincerity, if it fails to promote dialogue, confrontation could flareup yet again .

Secondly, there is the end of the year election crisis. Absent any surprises, the KMT will be negatively impacted by the student movement. It is likely to suffer an end of the year election defeat. This constitutes a serious threat to the Ma administration during his last year and a half in office.

Thirdly, there is a crisis of social division and social confrontation in Taiwan society. The student movement precipitated unprecedented social divisions and and confrontation. New forms of Internet media provided new tools for the spread of these divisions and confrontation. Everyone is anxious. Everyone is emotional about his plight. The student movement may be ebbing. But the roots of social conflict and instability remain.

How can we solve the current crisis? How can we resolve the impasse? That depends on the political vision of those in office and the political maturity of the general public. Those in office must not seek to resolve the immediate crisis by suddenly surrendering or bulling their way through. Both options are dangerous. No matter which path they take, the KMT is likely to suffer an end of year election defeat. The divisions in Taiwan's society will remain unresolved. Cross-strait relations might regress. The Taiwan Strait crisis might recur. If so, this would be a tragedy not merely for the Kuomintang, but for all of Taiwan.

The background of the student movement may be complex . The DPP has its own political calculations. But the students' four demands can be reduced to two. One. Legislative oversight regulations for Cross-strait agreements. Two. The convening of a citizens' constitutional conference. Regarding the former, in the late 1990s then Premier Vincent Siew twice proposed a similar bill. Regarding the latter, Premier Chiang Yi-hua said he is willing to discuss a constitutional convention. Can two apparently opposed parties not find a basis for a dialogue?

The current political storm is the result of long-term social divisions. Like a rash, it requires time for detoxification. Taiwan has a stable society. People need not be overly concerned. But just as someone must sound the storm alert, someone must end the storm alert. The Ma administration must decide wisely. The community must act as a stabilizing force. Together they must contribute to ending the storm as soon as possible.

社論－相信台灣的穩定力量
稍後再讀
中國時報 編輯部 2014年03月28日 04:10

太陽花學運持續進行，立法院議場繼續被占領，國會運作處於半癱瘓狀態。總統和國會議長隔空對立，步調既不一致，也給社會大眾互推皮球的感覺。朝野嚴重對峙，沒有互信，尤其在野黨在學生奧援下有恃無恐，朝野協商三度無功而返，僵局無解。

本來，僵局不是沒有解決的機會，馬總統已經表示願意邀請學生入府對話，但是在互信不足的情況下，雙方的接觸與對話，可以說毫無具體進展。昨日，學運領導人又公開表示要終止一切對話，甚至決定發動凱道大遊行，擴大對立。

在立法院，原本看似國民黨黨團釋出善意，但民進黨不願意就此妥協。最後，國民黨團的善意，被國民黨籍的立法院長駁回，王院長表示「請朝野各黨團盡速提出符合議事程序及規範之方案之後，會以最快速度再度召開朝野協商」。

在抗爭現場，學生人數有所流失，抗爭學生的體力與意志力都快逼近臨界點，但學運領導人看不到、找不到，也提不出下台階。每天在立法院都出現各種各樣的零星暴力衝突，立委與警察、學生與記者等等，氣氛躁動不安，隨時仍有擦槍走火、局面失控的危險。

對話協商沒有進展，一切似乎回到原點。但這個原點是政治對立的原點，是社會撕裂的原點，是台灣人心浮動不安的原點，更可能是兩岸關係回到不確定前景的原點。我們不得不說，這是政治領袖們必須拋棄一己私心，嚴肅面對的關鍵時刻。

此次學運雖然是《服貿協議》的爭議而起，其實是台灣這幾年積壓的所有病症的總爆發。首先，是親中仇中的糾葛，是對台灣發展方向的歧異。必須承認，從2008年到現在，兩岸關係雖然走上和平發展的道路，但台灣內部的分歧並沒有更好的解決。

其次，是社會疑中、懼中的情緒，兩岸擴大交流帶給兩岸很多向上的力量，但另一方面由於兩岸更頻繁接觸，對相當一部分人來說，反而擴大了對大陸的不信任與不安感。《服貿協議》的簽定，代表兩岸在經濟社會文化上將進入更深層次的交流與密合，也挑動了對大陸疑懼的情緒，擔心大陸的影響力長驅直入。

第三，馬政府無能的形象或許不盡公允，卻已深植人心，許多民眾大有理由認為，無能的馬政府無法捍衛台灣與基層百姓的利益。

第四，台灣憲政體制本來的缺憾，包括總統一人權力獨大，行政、立法兩院扞格，掌握政權的政黨始終無法理順黨政之間、府院黨團之間的權力運作機制，諸多問題也都在這次爭議中暴露。

如今，執政當局正面臨關鍵性的選擇。從目前局面來看，執政者正面臨三重危機，一是眼前的政權穩定危機，雖然學運有開始退潮的跡象，但是府方如果展現不出促進對話的誠意與手腕，局勢隨時有重新升高對立緊張的可能。

二是年底的選舉危機，如果沒有意外，面臨學運大衝擊的國民黨，大有可能在年底選舉中大敗，進而嚴重威脅馬總統在最後一年半的執政基礎。

第三，則是台灣社會大撕裂、大對立的危機，這次學運爆發以後，台灣社會出現空前嚴重的對立撕裂，在網路新媒體新工具的推波助瀾下，人人焦躁、人人各持己見的狀況更為激化，即使學運退潮，社會衝突的不穩定因素也不會消弭。

當前的危機如何解決，僵局如何化解，端視執政者的遠見、格局及全民的民主素養。當權者如果只求解決眼前危機，首鼠兩端突然退讓，或一味堅持強硬，恐怕都是危險的選擇。無論走上哪一條路，年底選舉國民黨固然大敗，台灣社會的撕裂對立也將無法化解，甚至兩岸關係可能倒退，台海危機再現，這不但是國民黨的悲劇，更是台灣的悲劇。

學生運動背景可能非常複雜，民進黨也有政治算計，但學生的四大訴求，其實可以歸結為兩點：兩岸協議監督條例的立法，以及召開公民憲政會議。前者，在1990年代後期，蕭萬長擔任行院長時代曾兩度提出類似法案，後者，江宜樺院長也曾表示可以討論，看似對立的兩方，難道找不到對話的基礎與可能性嗎？

這場風暴是社會長期分裂的總發作，像出疹子般需要一點時間排毒，台灣是一個穩定的社會，各方無須過度憂慮。但風暴本身解鈴還須繫鈴人，馬政府應做出智慧的抉擇，社會也需要發揮穩定的力量，促成這場風暴盡速解決。