Chen Shui-bian's Hunger Strike and the DPP's Support for Ah-Bian

Chen Shui-bian's Hunger Strike and the DPP's Support for Ah-Bian
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 26, 2008

The outcome of two activities remain uncertain. The first is Chen Shui-bian's hunger strike. The second is the DPP's continued support for Ah-Bian.

These two activities have one thing in common. They have clearly lost momentum, but at the same time the actors can't bring themselves to stop. The main reason is these two activities lack mainstream society support. Even among traditional Green Camp social organizations, the response has been tepid.

Last Saturday evening's Yuanshan rally could be seen as an indicator of support for Ah-Bian. Some claimed buses brought 10,000 people to the site. But others estimate somewhat fewer than 10,000 showed up. During this rally Li Hong-hsi railed hysterically that "Three generations of judges and prosecutors deserve to meet with excruciating ends." This tells us the Green Camp has degenerated into a mob on the rampage. Annette Lu wants Tsai Ing-wen to bear responsibility for deciding whether to break with Chen Shui-bian. This tells us that once again Chen Shui-bian is tearing the DPP apart. The evening's events made it clear that mainstream society is unwilling to come to the aid of Chen Shui-bian. Event organizers failed to offer sound reasons for supporting Chen Shui-bian. So the question now is, does Chen Shui-bian intend to continue his hunger strike?

The Yuanshan rally confirmed it is no longer possible to work up any support for Chen Shui-bian on Taiwan. If the Green Camp persists, it will only lead to more ugly Li Hong-hsi type incidents, and more laughable Annette Lu type farces. The situation is clear. Chen Shui-bian's hunger strike lacks moral legitimacy. Unilateral assertions that "Chen Shui-bian is not guilty" convince no one. The Taipei Detention Center has already released a trial balloon, suggesting that, if necessary, Chen Shui-bian will force fed. Another rumor suggests that following Chen's indictment, additional indictments will be made and he will remain in detention. The facts of Chen's cass will be made public following each indictment. The legitimacy of supporting Ah-Bian has been undermined by his indictments. The question now is, does Chen Shui-bian intend to continue his hunger strike?

Let's talk about the Democratic Progressive Party's dilemma. On August 30 it refused to support Ah-Bian. At the Yuanshan evening rally it supported Ah-Bian. The Democratic Progressive Party is unable to break with Chen Shui-bian. Annette Lu, Yu Shi-kuen, Su Tseng-chang and local officials came out in support of Ah-Bian. The Presbyterian Church and other pro-independence forces are no longer persona no grata. Even Tsai Ing-wen ascended to the podium. She merely paid lip service to "Human Rights." Such moves will have an impact only on Deep Greens. They will not persuade mainstream society. They may well increase antipathy among the Great Silent Majority. The more the Democratic Progressive Party resorts to the methods of Li Hong-hsi, Huang Ching-ling, and Cheng Hsing-chu in its support of Chen Shui-bian, the more mainstream society will conclude that the DPP is incorrigible and impervious to reason. When Deep Greens rail "Chairman Tsai is heartless," the public concludes that Tsai Ing-wen will never be able to transform the Democratic Progressive Party. In short: Chen Shui-bian will not be saved. The Democratic Progressive Party will be destroyed. Tsai Ing-wen will be lost.

Chen Shui-bian's indictment will be a watershed. Su Chi-feng and Chen Ming-wen have ended their hunger strikes. This is a blow to Chen Shui-bian. Chen Cheng-hui, Tsai Ming-Jer, Lee Chieh-mu have pleaded guilty. Koo Chung-liang has turned himself in. Chen Shui-bian has begun drinking electrolytes, dramatically diluting the political impact of his hunger strike. Chen Shui-bian is gambling. He hopes to remain on hunger strike right up to his indictment. He hopes his hunger strikes will gain his release on bail or an acquittal. But the Second Financial Reform and Secret Diplomacy scandals may keep Chen Shui-bian in custody. Chen Shui-bian faces a dilemma. He must end his hunger strike before he is indicted. If he is still in custody when he is indictment, he will have a hard time finding a pretext to end his hunger strike. The legitimacy of his hunger strike will also be weakened.

Once Chen Shui-bian is indicted, the DPP will find itself in a dilemma. If Chen Shui-bian is released, how will the Democratic Progressive Party deal with Chen Shui-bian's rabble-rousing? If he remains in custody, should the Democratic Progressive Party demand his release?

Chen Shui-bian's hunger strike will not have the impact he anticipated. Nor will the Democratic Progressive Party gain any political mileage by supporting Chen Shui-bian's hunger strike. Chen Shui-bian's hunger strike lacks moral legitimacy. The Democratic Progressive is unable to offer any convincing reasons to support Ah-Bian. For decades, the public on Taiwan has unhesitatingly supported and encouraged genuine pioneers for social progress. If it is unable to receive a satisfactory response, then that is something that must be addressed through action.

Chen Shui-bian would do well to change his strategy. He should emulate Lee Ming-Jer Tsai and Li Chieh-mu. He should admit his guilt, turn over his ill-gotten gains, and beg society to forgive him for "committing acts not permitted under the law." Chen Shui-bian will no longer need to remain on hunger strike. In which case the Democratic Progressive Party may paradoxically have more reason to support Chen.

陳水扁絕食與民進黨挺扁
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.11.26 04:46 am

現在，有兩件事不知該如何走下去。一、陳水扁絕食；二、民進黨挺扁。

這兩件事有一共通點，那就是顯然皆已失去爆發力及續航力，但是又都停不下來。主要的原因，是這兩件事皆未獲得主流社會的呼應與支持；即使在綠營的傳統社群中，這兩件事所獲的回響也相當微弱。

上 周六的圓山晚會，可視為挺扁的指標。據說遊覽車載來一萬人，但有人估計現場尚不到一萬人。這場晚會，李鴻禧狂罵「法官檢察官三代不得好死」，顯示綠營的論 述已至無理取鬧的地步；而呂秀蓮要蔡英文為「切不切割」負責，則再次暴露了民進黨已被陳水扁撕裂。這場晚會顯然未能召喚主流社會來聲援陳水扁，也未能在論 述上建立聲援陳水扁的正大理由，其立即發生的牽動效應是：陳水扁還要不要繼續絕食下去？

經過這場晚會，可以證實在台灣社會已無可能產生挺 扁的激情。綠營勉強為之，只會增添李鴻禧式的醜態與呂秀蓮式的鬧劇。事態十分明顯，陳水扁的絕食不具正當性，片面主張「阿扁無罪」亦不具正當性；而且，看 守所方面已放出必要時將對阿扁「固定保護」強行灌食的試探氣球，又傳出起訴後將另案繼續羈押陳水扁。扁案的真相將隨起訴而公開，挺扁的正當性亦將因起訴而 重挫。然則，陳水扁還要繼續絕食嗎？

接著可談民進黨挺扁的進退失據。從八三○不容挺扁，到圓山挺扁晚會；民進黨的主體已與陳水扁不能切 割，呂、游、蘇至地方山頭皆已出面挺扁，長老教會等獨派勢力亦早已不再避諱；連蔡英文也上了台，只是在口頭上守住「司法人權」的底線。不過，這類動作的影 響，似皆只在深綠極獨的範疇中激盪，非但未能感動或說服主流社會，反而可能徒增多數國人的惡感。民進黨愈用李鴻禧、黃慶林、鄭新助之類的方法來挺陳水扁， 主流社會就愈覺得民進黨的不可理喻及不可救藥。當深綠嗆聲「蔡主席無情」，社會大眾則認為對蔡英文改造民進黨已無指望。現在這個局面簡直是：救不了陳水 扁，毀了民進黨，又賠上了蔡英文。

接下來，陳水扁被起訴時，將是一個關鍵點。蘇治芬及陳明文停止絕食，對陳水扁的絕食是一衝擊；而陳鎮 慧、蔡銘哲、李界木的認罪、辜仲諒的投案，及陳水扁開始飲用電解水，更使他絕食的政治效應急遽下降。陳水扁現在想要一賭的也許是：絕食到起訴，然後以絕食 爭取交保或開釋。但是，就目前所見，因仍有二次金改及機密外交等大案，陳水扁屆時也可能繼續羈押。如此一來，將使陳水扁的絕食陷入進退兩難：他最好能在起 訴前停止絕食，否則，萬一起訴後仍被羈押，就更難找到停止絕食的下台階，但屆時繼續絕食的正當性卻將更趨薄弱。

同樣的，陳水扁被起訴後，亦將使民進黨陷入兩難之境。如果陳水扁被釋放，民進黨如何面對陳水扁的趴趴走？如果繼續收押，則民進黨要不要聲援主張開釋的活動？

情 勢發展至今，陳水扁的絕食發生不了他所想要達成的社會效應，民進黨挺扁也無法從陳水扁絕食獲得社會動能。因為，陳水扁絕食沒有正大的理由，民進黨挺扁也缺 乏一個足以說服國人的論述。幾十年來，台灣民眾不曾吝惜給真正推動社會進步的先驅以熱情的支持及鼓勵；但若未能獲得回響，那一定是在論述上或行動上尚有可 待商榷之處。

我們的建議是：陳水扁何妨改變戰略，學習蔡銘哲與李界木，承認犯行，繳出犯罪所得，請求社會原諒他「做了法律所不許可的事」；如此，陳水扁也就不必絕食，而民進黨也許反而有了挺扁的理由。