The Right Medicine for the Unemployment Crisis

The Right Medicine for the Unemployment Crisis
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 2, 2009

This time around, the government is clearly preparing to guard against a wave of unemployment. In this it deserves affirmation and support. We hope the government will make effective use of its resources amidst the current financial crisis, and that it will prescribe the proper medicine for the current wave of unemployment.

First rule of economics is that the purpose of economic development is to enhance the nation's quality of life. The fruits of economic growth must be enjoyed by all the people. Imbalanced economic growth that benefits only the few must be classified as unsatisfactory economic growth. The government's economic policies must benefit a majority of the people.

The government has not sought to restore past economic prosperity and growth. It has merely cried "Help!" The three stages of a financial crisis are: One. Financial turmoil. Two. Traumatized economic fundamentals. Three. A traumatized job market. We are now half way through the process. The extent of the damage is difficult to estimate while the process is going on. The wealth of the super-rich has shrunk. Business owners are making smaller profits. Some are even suffering losses and business closures. Ordinary investors' wealth have evaporated. Many are no longer able to make a living. No one is immune. No one is unaffected. The unemployed are the most severely affected. They are the ones most in need of government relief.

Unemployment is not merely an economic issue. It is also a social issue. Unemployment can cause any number of domestic problems. It can constitute a blow to an individual's self-esteem. It can even lead to a decline in law and order. A look at the society section will show us how many problems are caused by unemployment. If the government cannot reduce unemployment during the initial phase of the crisis, unemployment may well result in a vicious cycle. First, unemployment leads to a fall in domestic consumption. The fall in domestic consumption leads to more business closures. Business closures in turn create more unemployment. By then one must hit bottom before things can turn around.

That is why we fully support the government's unemployment initiatives. The government may spend money as if it was water while coping with the current economic crisis, its future revenues will surely diminish. Therefore it must pinch every penny, conserving its limited resources. It must spend its resources wisely, and only on those who truly need it.

One. The government's main thrust should be to substantially increase public construction and government procurement. Given Taiwan's current infrastructure, many areas still need improvement. It should take advantage of the opportunity to improve the infrastructure. It would simultaneously be laying a foundation for the next wave of economic growth and quality of life improvements. If companies have business and construction projects, they will be eager to hire people. They are hardly likely to lay anybody off. We must of course guard against sweetheart deals and the construction of useless projects. The CEPD intends to split large construction projects into smaller ones. This approach will result in major after-effects, and should be discouraged.

Two. While creating job opportunities, the government should take into account market demand. When the Democratic Progressive Party was in office it created job opportunities in order to combat unemployment. But the jobs it created were jobs pruning flowers and weeding grass. They were jobs for which the market had no demand. Once the government's budget ran out, most of these people found themselves unemployed again. Therefore, we hope the government's job creation program does not merely give the unemployed fish for a few years, but instead teaches them how to fish.

Three. The government should not not save employees by saving companies. This approach will squander too many resources and too much of its budget. Saving companies requires immense outlays, often hundreds of thousands of dollars. Much of the wealth goes straight into the pockets of business owners or other market players. Furthermore, businesses often employ hundreds, thousands, even tens of thousands of employees. The government simply has no way of deciding which employees ought to be saved. The government need not squander its resources on highly-paid employees, some of whom enjoy profit sharing, or on well to do employees. They have the resources to survive the downturn. Governments resources should be used on unemployed individuals with entire families dependent upon them.

Four. The government should establish a social safety net. It should maintain a minimum standard of living for those who did not benefit from the first wave of Full Employment measures. After all, the government of a nation with a per capita income of 20,000 USD, should make every effort to ensure a minimum standard of living.

During the early 70's Mideast Oil Crisis and Taipei Tenth Credit Cooperative Crisis, the mid-80's Asian Financial Crisis, the domestic financial crisis, and the post Y2K Internet Bubble, the domestic unemployment rate nearly doubled. Frankly the government will find it hard to keep unemployment below 4.5% during the financial crisis of the century. But it must do what it must do. The rest is in the hands of higher powers.

中時電子報
中國時報 　2009.02.02
務必對症下藥迎戰失業海嘯
中時社論

看得出來，這回政府是上緊了發條要對抗失業潮。這點，該肯定、該支持。而對具體政策內容，則期望政府在財政困難中，能善用資源，對症下藥，迎戰這波失業海嘯。

經濟學的第一課，提到經濟發展的目的，就強調：經濟發展的目的在提升國民生活品質。經濟成長的果實應為全民所享。也因此，不平衡的高經濟成長，讓少數人受惠，也被歸類為劣質的經濟成果。因此，政府在推動各項經濟政策時，終究要回歸到讓大部分民眾受惠。

而這波的不景氣，政府的經濟政策重點，已非過去的追求繁榮與成長，而是「救命」了。傳統的「三部曲」─先是金融風暴、然後重創經濟基本面、最後再重擊就業市場，現在才走到一半而已。在三部曲中，受創者難以估計─從富豪財富縮水、企業主獲利大減甚至虧損倒閉、到一般投資人的投資蒸發、甚至連賴以維生的工作都不保。沒有人逃得過、可以不受影響。在這些海嘯受傷者之中，政府最需要關注與強力救援者，莫過於失業者。

失業，不僅是經濟問題，更是嚴重的社會問題。因為失業，造成多少家庭問題、個人心理與尊嚴的受創、甚至，最後可能導致治安惡化。看看社會新聞，有多少是因為失業而引發的案例。而如果政府不能在目前這個失業率的「初升階段」，就祭出強力的政策緩和失業問題，失業可能會進入一個「惡性循環」的墜落階段。先是一批失業者造成國內消費再緊縮，緊縮後又讓更多商家、企業無法支撐而倒閉，接著造就更多失業者；然後繼續循環…。結果，真的要到「谷底」才能結束這個噩夢。

因此，對政府總動員，強力救失業，我們百分之百支持與肯定。不過，我們也必須提醒政府，為了迎戰這波海嘯，政府可說花錢如流水，但未來的各項收入肯定減少，因此，一定要珍惜每分錢、每分資源，用在刀口上，花在真正需要的民眾身上。在此，我們提出幾項簡單的基本看法：

首先、以大幅增加公共建設與政府採購為主軸。以台灣的基礎建設，仍有許多需要加強的地方，趁此時厚植基礎建設，也是為下波的經濟成長與民眾生活品質的提升，奠下基礎。企業如果有生意、有工程，請人都來不及，那會去裁員？不過應避免變成綁樁、及花費在無效益的建設上。經建會有意把工程拆成小型工程的想法，坦白說，後遺症與問題非常大，不宜推動。

其次、政府直接釋出的工作機會，應考慮未來與市場的接合性。民進黨執政時，也曾以擴大就業方案力圖對抗失業潮，但其釋出的工作機會都屬雇人修剪花木、除草等與市場無法接合的工作，一旦政府預算結束，這些人大部分都要繼續失業。因此，我們希望政府這次的擴大就業內涵，不僅是讓失業者這一、二年「有魚吃」，更重要的是同時也可「教他釣魚」。

第三、切莫以「救企業方式救員工」，因為，這將虛擲太多寶貴的資源與預算。其主要問題在：救企業要耗費鉅資，動輒數百上千億元，但有許多利益是資本家或市場其它人拿走；再者，一家企業，動輒數百上千，甚至破萬名的員工，政府根本無法分辨那些是該救、要救的員工。對一些曾經享有高薪、甚至高分紅、或原本就較富有的員工，政府實在不需要耗費資源在其身上，其本身能力與財力，足以支撐度過不景氣。這些資源，該用在那些失業即全家無以為繼者身上。

第四、積極建構社會安全網，以維持所有無法受惠於前端搶救失業措施者的基本生活。畢竟，以一個平均國民所得近二萬美元的國家而言，政府應盡力讓民眾能維持基本生活所需。

民國七○年代的石油危機與十信風暴、八○年代中期的亞洲與本土金融風暴、廿一世紀的網路泡沫，國內失業率幾乎都是倍增；在這波百年僅見的全球金融海嘯中，政府鎖定今年失業率要維持在四．五％以下，坦白說，很難、很難。不過，該做的還是要做，其它，只能交給老天了。