From Cross-Strait Negotiations to Regional and International Economic and Trade Negotiations

From Cross-Strait Negotiations to Regional and International Economic and Trade Negotiations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 17, 2009

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit (APEC), which opened on the 15th in Singapore, has reached a successful conclusion. In the wake of the global financial tsunami, many nations are struggling to get back on the road to recovery. The theme of the summit was "sustainable growth, regional linkage." It clearly conveyed the inevitable trend toward regional economic integration. In order to to safeguard the nation's development, and to avoid being isolated, the Republic of China must pick up the pace by actively seeking opportunities to participate.
APEC is often regarded as nothing more than a political shindig. The main attraction has long been the impromptu "fashion show" put on by the leaders of the summit, who appear before the media in traditional clothing from the host nation. But this year discussions resulted in a clear consensus. Asia-Pacific regional reconstruction and trade and economic integration increased. And Mainland China has been acknowledgeds as the locomotive that will lead the Asia-Pacific region out of its economic plight.

Even the United States was afraid of being shut out. President Barack Obama announced that the United States would join the "Pan-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement," and conduct exchanges with TPP Member States. He believes it will provide jobs and economic prosperity for the American people. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also pointed out that the TPP can be a model for regional free trade agreements. Following Obama's unambiguous declaration, the desire of Asia-Pacific nations to join was even greater. The TPP may develop to the point where it includes the twenty-one Member States of the APEC free trade region.

In fact, the pace of Asia-Pacific trade and economic integration has accelerated in recent years. Mainland China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are already principal members of "ASEAN plus One." This has had an immediate impact on Taiwan. We may soon face "ASEAN plus Three" and other such free trade blocs. Taiwan is dependent on foreign trade. Being excluded from such free-trade groups, means the loss of important opportunities for development. The impact will be incalculable.

Last year's financial tsunami flooded the world. It also led to an unprecedented global fight to save the economy. It highlighted the importance of regional trade groups. As the economies of Europe and the United States gasp for air, emerging nations have seized the opportunity to establish themselves. The light of the G8 has faded. The G20 has become a forum for the discussion and establishment of new financial standards. Many feel that only the G2 ─ the United States and Mainland China, are able to lead the world. An economic catastrophe has changed the world's political and economic ecology. Their thinking is now very different. The Asia-Pacific region's evaluation of Mainland China is much higher. Nations around the world now pay much more attention to Mainland China's influence.

Amidst such an atmosphere, many regions have formed free trade blocs. The Asia-Pacific countries in particular see Beijing as a candidate for free trade links. In the past Taipei was subject to political constraints. Establishing free trade agreements was very difficult. Suppose the twenty one countries of APEC establish a free trade zone. This once loose organization will become a free-trade group that includes over 200 million people. At the very least it will increase APEC's trade and economic integration. If Taipei can not join, the situation will become critical. Especially this time, APEC nations held a climate conference outside the conference. Taipei alone was left out in the cold. This underscored even more the importance of joining more international groups as soon as possible.

In the past, the one blocking Taipei was Beijing. This pressure has now diminished. Taipei now has more opportunities to participate. This demonstrates the importance of signing the agreement on cross-Strait economic cooperation (ECFA). ECFA is not merely a channel by which Taipei can expand cross-Strait business opportunities. It is also a basis by which it can talk and establish free trade agreements with other nations. During an era in which economic and trade exchanges are increasingly conducted through groupings, If Taipei fails to find a way in, will find itself with less and less room to maneuver.

This of course, is no easy task. Cross-Strait consultations on ECFA were a complex and difficult process, filled with surprises. The atmosphere was uncertain. Even though it was finally signed, will follow-up co-operation proceed smoothly? Will it break the impasse over negotiations with other countries regarding FTAs? Just what are the limits of Beijing's goodwill? Can Taipei establish a new model of international cooperation in the space opened up? Taipei continues to face many challenges.

Former Vice President Lien Chan attended the APEC summit as President Ma Ying-jeou's representative. Fortunately he and Mainland Chinese President Hu Jintao made clear that the launching of ECFA this year established a new starting point. The MOU concerning further cross-Strait financial cooperation was signed on the 16th. We hope its provisions can be implemented smoothly, creating additional opportunities for Taiwan's economic development.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.11.17
社論－經由兩岸協商 連結區域與國際經貿
本報訊

本屆亞太經合會議（ＡＰＥＣ）十五日在新加坡圓滿落幕，在全球金融海嘯後，各國正努力走出低迷邁向復甦，這次會議以「永續成長，連結區域」為主題，鮮明傳達出區域經貿整合已是必然趨勢。為了維護國家發展避免受到孤立，台灣必須加緊腳步，積極尋求參與的機會。

雖然ＡＰＥＣ過去常被視為一場政治大拜拜，最熱鬧的主秀是參與峰會的領袖穿上當地傳統服裝亮相，但綜觀今年的研討與結論，亞太地區攜手重建、加強經貿整合的氣氛比以往更濃，共識相當一致，而無疑地，中國則已被公認是帶領亞太走出經濟險灘的火車頭。

這樣的大趨勢，美國也不敢置身於外。美國總統歐巴馬因此宣布，美國將加入「泛太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協定」（the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement），與ＴＰＰ會員國交往，相信將帶給美國人民就業機會和經濟繁榮。新加坡總理李顯龍也指出，ＴＰＰ可以成為一個區域自由貿易協定的模範。在歐巴馬明確表態之後，亞太地區國家加入的意願更高，未來ＴＰＰ可能發展成涵蓋ＡＰＥＣ廿一個會員國的自由貿易區。

事實上，亞太經貿整合的腳步近年來不斷加速，以中國與東南亞國協為主軸的「東協加一」即將上路，勢必對台灣造成立即的衝擊，而接下來我們還可能面對的「東協加三」等不同的自貿板塊。對於依賴外貿甚深的台灣，被排除在這些自由貿易集團之外，將意味著失去許多重要的發展機會，影響將難以估計。

去年底金融海嘯淹沒全球，也因此促成史上前所未見的全球聯手挽救經濟大作戰。集團的重要性因此受到彰顯，而在歐美經濟奄奄一息的同時，新興國家趁勢取得更重要的地位；Ｇ８光芒褪色，Ｇ20成為討論及設定金融新規範的論壇，而最能主導世局的，咸認唯有Ｇ２─美國與中國。一場經濟浩劫，讓全球政經生態為之丕變，思維觀念也大為不同；亞太地區對中國的評價與寄望更高，世界各國也更加重視中國的影響力。

在這種氣氛下，許多地區紛紛形成自由貿易區塊，亞太國家更是以中國為連結標的。台灣過去受限於政治問題，自由貿易協定的談判很不順利。如果未來ＡＰＥＣ廿一個國家進一步形成自由貿易區，讓這個原本鬆散的組織變成涵蓋廿多億人口的自貿集團，或至少讓ＡＰＥＣ國家的經貿整合更加緊密，那麼台灣能不能加入，就至關緊要了。尤其這次ＡＰＥＣ國家又針對氣候問題舉行會外會，獨獨台灣無緣參加，更凸顯出儘早加入更多國際運作的重要性。

過去卡住台灣的是中共的阻擋，當這個壓力減輕時，台灣可能會有機會爭取更多的參與。由此可知，兩岸簽署經濟合作架構協議（ＥＣＦＡ）的重要性，因為它不僅是台灣擴展兩岸商機的管道，更是進一步與其他國家商談自由貿易協議的基礎。在這個經貿交流日趨集團化的時代，台灣不找到入門的路，生存空間恐怕會愈來愈窄。

當然，這不是一項容易的工程，光是兩岸協商ＥＣＦＡ，就已經需要一番複雜困難的過程，其間變數百出，氣氛晴雨不定，而即使終能簽定，後續的合作能否順利推動，是不是能因此打破與其他國家洽談自貿協定的僵局，而中共善意的上限又在哪裡，台灣能不能在新的空間裡開創新的國際合作模式，也面臨著諸多考驗。

所幸這次代表馬英九總統出席ＡＰＥＣ峰會的前副總統連戰與中國國家主席胡錦濤會晤時，胡錦濤明確表示兩岸ＥＣＦＡ協商在今年內啟動，算是明確設定了一個起跑點，而攸關兩岸進一步金融合作的ＭＯＵ也於十六日完成換文簽署，希望各項協商能自此順利推動，為台灣的未來發展開創更多契機。