Hsu Hsin-liang Rains on the DPP's Parade

Hsu Hsin-liang Rains on the DPP's Parade
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 16, 2009

Former DPP Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang called on all the Green Camp "princes" to enter the mayoral races for the five major cities late next year. This would increase political momentum leading up to the presidential election. His reasoning was that the Democratic Progressive Party never broke through the basic pattern of "60% Blue, 40% Green" voter support during the recent local elections. "The DPP really has no reason to rejoice."
Some people in the Green Camp may agree with Hsu's first statement. The Green Camp "princes" are probably already making plans. But the Democratic Progressive Party may be unhappy about Hsu's second statement, namely that the Green Camp didn't really win a victory. It may feel Hsu is raining on their parade, merely out of spite. But unflattering advice is often what one needs to hear the most, and with a cool head.

As Hsu sees it, the Green Camp's increased support was primarily a result of Blue Camp voters staying home. In fact, the total number of votes the DPP received fell, by tens of thousands votes. In his view, a victory may boost morale. But without a change in the basic pattern of Blue vs. Green voter support, the DPP cannot hope to win back the presidency. Therefore he urged the "princes" to formulate a strategy to win all five municipal elections. Only then can the DPP build sufficient momentum. Only then can it change the basic pattern of Blue vs. Green voter support. Only then can it hope to win back the presidency in 2012.

Hsu Hsin-liang is hardly alone in this view. Cooler heads on Taiwan have all arrived at the same conclusion. They have all concluded that there has been no major change in Blue vs. Green voter support. On the surface, Green Camp support has increased. The KMT now commands a mere two and a half percentage point lead over the DPP. But if one merges support for Fu Kun-chi and others into the Blue Camp, the gap between the two camps still exceeds eight percentage points. Numbers talk. The Green Camp has a right to be happy about its victory. But it should not get carried away.

Besides, before the election the Green Camp boasted that it would win six to ten county seats. It won only four. This suggests that although people may be dissatisfied with the ruling KMT, in a one on one election, many people still have misgivings about Democratic Progressive Party rule. Conversely, Ma Ying-jeou refuses to admit defeat. He maintains that the Blue Camp still holds a substantial lead in the number of county and municipal executive seats, and that the gap in support between the two camps still holds.

The "basic pattern" of Blue vs. Green voter support has persisted for years, through one election after another. The Kuomintang has undergone two consecutive schisms. Internecine warfare led to a string of Blue Camp debacles. Blue Camp supporters now understand the dangers of "split-tickets." Over the past two years, the single-member district two-vote system for legislative elections has established a KMT/DPP two party system. Smaller parties have evaporated. The basic pattern of "60% Blue, 40% Green" voter support is largely set.

The Green Camp has a clear ideology. Therefore its core support is relatively solid. No matter how poorly the Democratic Progressive Party performs, Green Camp voters persist in giving it their support. By contrast, Blue Camp supporters support the KMT for many different reasons. Blue Camp core support is not as solid, not as unquestioningly loyal as the Green Camp's. Because of this, whenever the KMT governs badly, Blue Camp voters either stay away from the polls, or cast protest votes for independent or third party candidates. But during major one on one elections, they remain united in their "opposition to Taiwan independence." In other words, if the DPP refuses to make reasonable alterations to its stance on reunification vs. independence, it will continue "running into a brick wall" during general elections.

Hsu Hsin-liang is urging Green Camp "princes" to build political momentum. He has a point. If done properly, it might have a powerful psychological effect. But it is also a tactic of desperation, one full of risk. After all, such a move would thwart the rise of younger generation political stars. If the "princes" lose, the younger generation political stars will have to wait four years for their next opportunity. Hsu Hsin-liang believes that if the "princes" win their bids for mayor, then run for president, their supporters will forgive them, providing they are up front about their agenda. In fact, the practice of using public offices as springboards, and using public elections to increase one's political capital, may lead to a voter backlash. Most importantly, if the Democratic Progressive Party misjudges the significance of their recent election "victory," and adopts a radical platform, a "pendulum effect" will kick in. Voters will revert to their basic pattern of "60% Blue, 40% Green" voter support. The key to Hsu Hsin-liang's thinking is that he expects the DPP to break through the basic pattern of "60% Blue, 40% Green" voter support.

Hsu Hsin-liang has admonished the Democratic Progressive Party not to celebrate too soon. He rained on their parade. But he spoke the truth. He helped the Green Camp keep a cool head. The Green Camp may have built up some momentum during the local elections. But the basic pattern of voter support remains unchanged. In order to win the five upcoming mayoral elections, not to mention the presidential election, it must win the trust of over half the voters. It must behave in a manner that will win that trust. Electioneering gimmicks alone will not be enough. The Democratic Progressive Party must not misinterpret the meaning of its recent election "victory." It must not react inappropriately, and thereby forfeit the opportunity to undergo a rebirth.

許信良的冷水：民進黨真的大勝了嗎？
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.12.16 03:38 am

民進黨前主席許信良呼籲，明年底的五都選舉，綠營天王天后都應該全部參戰，以衝高未來拚總統大選的氣勢。他的理由是，這次地方選舉，民進黨基本上仍未突破「藍六綠四」的基本盤，「民進黨實在沒有高興的本錢」。

前半段談話，綠營也許有人贊同，天王們或許也正在盤算自己的戰略；但後一段話說綠營並沒有大勝，民進黨聽了可能甚為不悅，認為許信良是故意潑他們冷水。然而，刺耳的話，反倒該平心靜氣聽聽。

許信良的分析是：綠營這次得票率成長，主要是泛藍支持者未投票所致，民進黨的總得票數其實下降了數萬票。他認為，勝選雖有助鼓舞士氣，但若不突破藍綠基本盤，對奪回中央執政權毫無幫助。也因此，他提出天王天后盡出的戰略，認為全力攻取五都選舉，才能拉高氣勢、突破基本盤，進而攻奪二○一二總統大位。

許信良的看法，其實不算十分獨特；對台灣政治比較冷靜的人，也都觀察到了這次選舉藍綠基本盤沒有大變動的現象。表面上，綠營得票率雖然提高，將國民黨逼成只剩兩個半百分點的差距；但若將傅?萁等違紀者的得票納入泛藍，兩營的差距仍在百分之八以上。數字會說話，綠營勝選固然值得高興，但不宜得意忘形。

何況，選前綠營有人誇口要拿下六到十席，結果只奪下四縣。這顯示，民意雖不滿意執政黨，但在一對一對決的選舉，許多人對民進黨執政仍充滿顧忌。反過來看，馬英九遲不承認敗選，除了藍軍縣市長當選席次仍大幅領先，或也是認定兩營得票基本差距還在。

所謂藍綠「基本盤」，是多年透過選舉往復實際探測出來的結構。先前國民黨歷經兩度分裂，因「近親相殺」造成泛藍幾次失利後，藍營支持者已徹底認清「分裂投票」的風險。近兩年，透過立院單一選區兩票制的變革，更確立了國、民兩黨兩強對立的政黨政治；小黨泡沫化的結果，「藍六綠四」之比大致底定。

綠營因為意識形態鮮明，核心基本盤較堅實，無論民進黨表現如何，支持者都願意出動投票。相形之下，藍營支持者的投票動機較為多元，結構相對鬆散，不如綠軍死忠。也因此，每當國民黨表現欠佳，藍營就會出現賭爛票；但在大型一對一選舉時，仍會出現團結的「防獨」的意識。亦即，如果民進黨不在統獨論述上作合理修正，在大選中仍不免「撞牆」。

許信良主張天王天后傾巢而出衝高選情，誠然有其觀點；若經營得當，可以造成強烈的社會心理效應。然而，這也是孤注一擲的戰法，充滿風險；畢竟，此舉將對中壯代造成嚴重壓抑，天王萬一失利，新人也平白賠掉四年機會。何況，許信良認為，天王們若當選市長後再要參選總統，只要把話說清楚，選民應可理解；事實上，這種把公職當跳板、拿公共選舉煉自己的政治黃金的作法，可能引起選民強烈反感。最重要的是，民進黨若誤判此次選舉「勝利」的意義，轉而採行激進路線，恐將觸動選民的「鐘擺效應」，又將逼出「藍六綠四」的基本盤。然而，許信良談話的核心觀點卻在：期望民進黨能突破這個「六四障礙」。

許信良提醒民進黨別高興太早，雖是一盆傾頭冷水，說的卻是事實，有助綠營保持清醒。綠軍在地方選舉雖呈現上漲態勢，但就全盤結構而言，並未突破基本盤。未來要爭取五都市長的勝選，乃至在未來總統大選爭取過半選民支持，需得提出足以取信於民的作為，而不可能光憑選舉的技術操作即能如願。民進黨不可錯誤解讀此次選舉的「勝利」，以免作出錯誤的回應，而失去新生再造的契機。