DPP Forcing Tsai Ing-wen to Swear a Blood Oath

DPP Forcing Tsai Ing-wen to Swear a Blood Oath
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 14, 2010

Tsai Ing-wen's authority within the Democratic Progressive Party is under challenge. The threat to her power may be more serious than outsiders imagine. First, she failed to do as well in the Two Yings Debates as expected. In particular, Deep Green elements found her arguments distasteful. Her authority within the party has been shaken. Secondly, party elders and Taiwan independence fundamentalists are attempting to force her to run for Xinbei City Mayor. The time for a showdown is nigh.

Tsai Ing-wen used the second anniversary of Ma's inauguration to publish an open letter, mainly regarding the Two Yings Debate. This move, plus the numerous TV interviews she held in the wake of the debate, declares that if the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power, it will hold a referendum to abolish ECFA. It also declares that the DPP is now fully behind the 5/20 protest march. This move can also be seen as a means of ameliorating her current power crisis.

But the grander her gestures, the more apparent the seriousness of her power crisis. Moreover, her remedial measures merely increase the severity of her crisis. For example, she stridently proclaimed that if the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power, it will hold a referendum to abolish ECFA. For Deep Greens, this amounts to an admission that her arguments during the debate were riddled with holes. For Pale Greens and Pale Blues, this may be seen as a disillusioning revelation of her true face. In particular, this belated addendum will severely narrow the options for the DPP and herself, during the 2012 presidential election as well as for the long term. Crisis management like this amounts to adding fuel to the fire.

Tsai Ing-wen has been party chairman for two years. Yet her current power crisis is the result of her party loyalty being called into question. People are asking why she failed to denounce President Ma for "pandering to [mainland] China and selling out Taiwan?" during the debate? Why she failed to call for a referendum? Some are even saying that Tsai Ing-wen belatedly "defected" to the Democratic Progressive Party and lacks "fighting ability." They are saying that if she refuses to run for Xinbei City Mayor, what right does she have to be re-elected party chairman? Given the current atmosphere, forcing Tsai Ing-wen to run for Xinbei City Mayor amounts to pressuring her to swear a blood oath. For party elders and Taiwan independence fundamentalists, this is an issue of loyalty and not an issue of individual preference.

To what extent must Tsai Ing-wen spill her guts to Deep Green elements before she passes muster? She faces a dilemma. On the one hand she must swear a blood oath to mollify Deep Greens. On the other hand, she must not overdo any such blood oath. Otherwise she will disillusion centrist-oriented Pale Green and Pale Blue voters. Most importantly, she must not overdo any blood oath to the extent that people conclude "Tsai Ing-wen is no longer Tsai Ing-wen." Otherwise Tsai Ing-wen's day will be done.

The open letter Tsai Ing-wen published yesterday reveals her dilemma. Consider this section of her letter. "At this stage the government must ensure that exchanges with [mainland] China" must go hand in hand with "clarifications of Taiwan's image as a nation. If the latter is sacrificed to the former, it will surely have devastating consequences for Taiwan's future." This hesitant argument appears to a defense of national sovereignty in exchanges with mainland China. This of course is a public consensus. But Tsai Ing-wen has invented new jargon, "clarifications of Taiwan's image as a nation," that merely come across as mealy-mouthed. What does "clarifications of Taiwan's image as a nation" mean? Is Tsai Ing-wen advocating the use of "Republic of China" in exchanges with the mainland? The DPP was unable to do so when it was in power. All it can do is one-sidedly cling to "One China, Different Interpretations," and allow Beijing to refrain from voicing any objections. Is Tsai Ing-wen advocating the use of "Republic of Taiwan" in exchanges with the mainland? The DPP was unable to do this either when it was in power. Some in the Democratic Progressive Party have even concluded that the Taiwan independence movement is dead, that it was killed off by Chen Shui-bian during his administration. Is Tsai Ing-wen advocating the invocation of the "two states theory" in exchanges with the mainland? Tsai Ing-wen's namby-pamby formulation may come across as inauthentic to the Deep Greens. It may come across as unintelligible to Pale Greens and Pale Blues. If she herself is unable to offer a clarification of what she means, how can she possibly offer a "clarification of Taiwan's image as a nation?"

Let's take a closer look at Tsai Ing-wen's power crisis. Party elders and Taiwan independence fundamentalists may feel that Tsai Ing-wen's "interim mission" is over. Since problems have arisen surrounding her loss in the debate and her candidacy for Xinbei City Mayor, it is time for a showdown. If at this point Tsai Ing-wen fails to convince Deep Green elements of her sincerity, and enter the Xinbei City Mayoral campaign, after-effects can be expected. If she is unable to convince them of her sincerity, and refuses to run for Xinbei City Mayor, they may turn against her. Why is she dragging her feet on running for Xinbei City Mayor they ask. Party elders and Taiwan independence fundamentalists want Tsai Ing-wen to swear a blood oath.

Tsai Ing-wen has been party chairman for two years. Who thought her party loyalty would be called into question? Two years ago, Pale Greens and Pale Blues looked to a miracle -- a "DPP reformed by Tsai Ing-wen." Now alas, the reverse has happened -- "Tsai Ing-wen has found herself mired in the DPP morass."

Tsai Ing-wen's rescue awaits a show of support from reformers within the DPP. It also depends on Tsai Ing-wen's efforts on her own behalf.

民進黨逼蔡英文立下投名狀
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.05.14 04:13 am

蔡英文當下在民進黨內的權力危機，可能較外界想像的更嚴峻。其一、她在雙英辯論中的表現不如預期，尤其論述不符深綠口味，使她在黨內的權威地位動搖。其二、黨內公媽派及獨派欲迫她參選新北市長的壓力有增無已，已瀕攤牌階段。

蔡英文藉馬總統就職二周年，發表了一封公開信；主要是對雙英辯論有所補充。這個動作，與她在辯論會後密集接受電視專訪、宣示在民進黨若執政後將公投廢止ＥＣＦＡ，及對五二○遊行自猶豫轉為支持等等，皆可視為她對當下權力危機所採取的因應及補救手段。

然而，她的動作越大，越暴露了權力危機的嚴重性；而且，她的補救手段，也回過頭來越加重了危機的嚴重性。例如，她加料加碼宣示民進黨若執政後將公投廢止ＥＣＦＡ；對深綠，形同承認了她在辯論會中的論述缺口；對淺綠淺藍，則可能被視為圖窮匕現；尤其，這畫蛇添足的一句話，也將使她自己及民進黨在未來至二○ 一二年的論述架構，喪失了彈性空間。這樣的危機處理，不啻是抱薪救火，火上加油。

蔡英文就任黨主席將屆二年任滿，但當前的權力危機竟然猶如她對黨的忠貞仍受質疑。在辯論會中為何不點明馬總統「傾中賣台」？為何不強調公投？尤有甚者，更謂蔡英文是後來才「投靠」民進黨的，沒有「戰功」，這次若不跳下去參選新北市長，豈有資格再任黨主席？在當下氛圍中，逼蔡英文參選新北市長，就是要逼她立下投名狀。對於公媽派及獨派而言，這是忠貞問題，而不是個人意願問題。

蔡英文要向深綠剖白交心到什麼程度，才能算是過了關？她當前的困境是，不能不加料加碼，以向深綠交代；但也不能加料加碼過了頭，那會使淺綠淺藍及中間選民對她失望。最重要的是，她不能加料加碼到了「蔡英文不再像蔡英文」或「蔡英文不再是蔡英文」的程度，因為那樣的「蔡英文」也就報銷了。

蔡英文前天發表的公開信，顯示了這種進退維谷的情勢。試看其中這一段論述：「現階段的政府應該要確保一個事實，就是『與中國交流』應該要和『台灣國家形象清晰化』結伴出現，攜手並進。……若犧牲後者來成就前者，必然會對台灣的前途帶來災難性的後果。」這段欲語還休的論述，談的好像是與中國交流應當維護國家主權，這當然是全民共識；但是，蔡英文卻創制了「台灣國家形象清晰化」的新語彙，則顯得吞吞吐吐。什麼叫做「台灣國家形象清晰化」？蔡英文是主張用「中華民國」的國號與中國交流嗎？但民進黨執政時也做不到；現階段只能片面持守「一中各表」，並讓北京不表否認。又蔡英文難道是主張用「台灣共和國」的地位與中國交流嗎？同樣民進黨執政時也做不到，何況連民進黨中也有人認為台獨已被陳水扁整死了。再者，蔡英文更難道要再用「兩國論」與中國交流？蔡英文這種囁囁嚅嚅的論調，可能使深綠覺得不夠道地，而讓淺綠淺藍覺得不知所云。如果連自己都不能說得「清晰化」，如何使「台灣國家」形象清晰化？

深一層看蔡英文當下所處權力危機，公媽派及獨派可能認為，蔡英文的「階段性任務」已經完成，既然出現辯論失利及新北市長人選的問題，如今已是借題發揮的攤牌時機。如果蔡英文能在此時向深綠交心輸誠，並投入新北市長選舉，則也許尚有後效可期；但若不能交心輸誠，堅拒參選新北市長，也許就要翻臉了。選不選新北市長？公媽派及獨派要蔡英文立下投名狀。

蔡英文就任黨主席已將二年任滿，詎料竟陷於黨內的忠貞質疑。兩年前，淺綠淺藍皆想像會出現「民進黨蔡英文化」的奇蹟，如今卻已陷「蔡英文民進黨醬缸化」的危機。

搶救蔡英文，有待民進黨內轉型派的聲援搭救，更要看蔡英文自己如何奮力掙扎。