If Soong is not Running for President, Why the PFP Legislative Nominations?

If Soong is not Running for President, Why the PFP Legislative Nominations?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 15, 2011

Summary: The truth has finally emerged. James Soong has gradually revealed his full agenda. One. Consider the presidential election. His key objective is to topple Ma Ying-jeou. He is even willing to replace him with Tsai Ing-wen. Two. Consider the legislative elections. His key objective is to increase the number of seats held by the DPP. This will increase the People First Party's chances of becoming the "swing vote."

Full Text below:

The truth has finally emerged. James Soong has gradually revealed his full agenda. One. Consider the presidential election. His key objective is to topple Ma Ying-jeou. He is even willing to replace him with Tsai Ing-wen. Two. Consider the legislative elections. His key objective is to increase the number of seats held by the DPP. This will increase the People First Party's chances of becoming the "swing vote."

Consider the presidential election. James Soong has no chance of replacing Ma Ying-jeou. Even if Ma Ying-jeou is toppled as a result of James Soong's election bid, Tsai Ing-wen would become president, not James Soong. Consider the legislative elections. The People First Party campaign would substantially reduce the number of seats held by the KMT, and substantially increase in the number of seats held by the DPP. The PFP is unlikely to win many seats for itself. Now consider the following.

James Soong is out to get Ma Ying-jeou, plain and simple. He feels slighted and neglected. As a result, he is angry with Ma, and seeks revenge. In order to disguise Soong's personal vendetta, and to give it a veneer of rationality, the Soong camp is denouncing Ma, accusing him of "wreakng havoc upon the nation." It is disguising its personal vendetta as a quest for justice. Soong has been sniping at Ma relentlessly. He insists that Taiwan's most serious problem is a lack of "leadership." He says Ma Ying-jeou lacks the vision required by a commander in chief. He says "Ma is even worse than the Taiwan Affairs Office," Every word Soong utters suggests that "He can be replaced." Soong has urged immediate changes to the presidential election rules. To win, a candidate must win by an absolute majority. Soong is implying that he could then enter the race without fear that he would become a "spoiler." Most amusing of all is Soong's pretense of selflessness. He even urged Su Tseng-chang to run. That way both candidates could pursue their own agendas. In his quest for the presidency, James Soong has thought of everything. Unfortunately his quest for the presidency, is either the ravings of a lunatic or mere wishful thinking.

Consider the legislative elections. Consider the People First Party's first wave of nominations. Consider its alleged future waves of nominations. As we have seen, James Soong's key objective is to increase the number of Democratic Progressive Party legislators. The first wave of PFP nominations clearly targeted districts in which the Blue Camp is weak, or in which its leads only by the slimmest of margins. The People First Party insists on nominating candidates to these districts. It clearly wants the DPP to win. Because if the PFP merely nominates a few candidates to districts where the Blue Camp commands a huge advantage, it will merely replace a few KMT candidates. It will merely replace a few KMT legislative seats. But the PFP is fielding candidates in districts where the going is tough for the Blue Camp. That is the only way Soong can increase the number of DPP seats. That is the way he can increase the chances of the People First Party commanding the "swing vote." This is James Soong's underhanded and ruthless strategy vis a vis the legislative elections.

As noted above, suppose James Soong's key goal is to topple Ma and replace him as president. Unless he is elected president, he has not fulfilled this ambition. But James Soong stands no chance of being elected president. He can hardly acknowledge that "The real purpose behind my presidential bid is to ensure a Tsai Ing-wen victory."

But if Soong is not running for president, that casts doubt on the PFP's bid for legislative seats. One. Suppose the People First Party is nominating legislative candidates left and right, but Soong does not run for president. Soong will not replace Ma as president. At most, Tsai will replace Ma as president. Fielding legislative candidates will not help Soong topple Ma and take his place. Two. Suppose the People First Party nominates legislative candidates left and right. Suppose it increases the number of DPP seats in the legislature, but fails to improve election prospects for the PFP. The Blue Camp will lose. The Green Camp will receive a windfall. The Orange Camp will gain nothing. The People First Party will not benefit. The consequences will harm the entire nation. What would be the point?

James Soong can do little good, but he can inflict much harm. He must decide whether he wishes to play a destructive or constructive role during this election. After all, the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou are evenly matched against the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. James Soong may hate Ma. He may oppose Ma. he may long to topple Ma. But if he cannot replace Ma after toppling him, he must explain himself. The alternatives are the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou and the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. So why does he insist on toppling the KMT and Ma Ying-jeou, thereby ensuring a victory for Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP? Is James Soong's real purpose to topple Ma and ensure a victory for Tsai?

In sum, if Soong is running for president in order to topple Ma and replace him, then his indiscriminate legislative nominations have some justification, They represent an attempt to topple the Ma administration as a whole. But what if James Soong does not intend to run for president? What if he is merely using PFP legislative bids to undermine the Blue Camp and benefit the Green Camp, merely out of spite, and does not even benefit the Orange Camp? What if he cannot topple Ma and replace him as president? What if society pays the price for his divisive tactics? If Soong does not run for president, he must explain himself. Why the indiscriminate legislative nominations, clearly intended to ensure a DPP victory? James Soong may be a willing Green Camp tool. He may be willing to topple Ma and divide the Blue Camp, But People First Party legislative candidates need not become James Soong's tools, merely so that he may vent his spleen against Ma Ying-jeou.

The election has begun. On the one hand, James Soong, who is not running for president, has latched onto Ma Ying-jeou and is haranguing him on a daily basis. On the other hand, the PFP is fielding legislative candidates, thereby ensuring DPP victories. What an absurd scenario. James Soong is riding a tiger. He cannot get off. But his followers, PFP legislative candidates, can refuse to be his tools.

宋若不選總統，為何立委烽火提名？
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.08.15

圖窮匕現，宋楚瑜的心計，透過他累積的表述，已經完整顯露：一、在總統選舉中，他的核心目標是想拉下馬英九，即使用蔡英文拉下馬英九亦不違所願；二、在立委選舉中，他的手段則是以全力設法增加民進黨的當選名額為主要目標，俾相對增加親民黨成為「關鍵少數」的機率。

就總統選舉言，宋楚瑜絕無取代馬英九的可能性，馬英九即使因宋參選而被拉下，當選的也一定是蔡英文，而非宋楚瑜；就立委選舉言，則親民黨最大的戰果也將是大幅拉下國民黨的席位，相對即大幅增加了民進黨的名額，但親民黨能當選的席次極低。以下，進一步析論：

宋楚瑜完全是衝著馬英九而來的。他因自認受馬冷落漠視，而爆發反馬仇馬的報復怒火；接著，為了掩飾及合理化此種私怨，宋營斥馬為「禍國殃民」，將私仇轉為公義。日來，宋楚瑜不斷批馬，直指台灣最嚴重的問題就是「領導」，又稱馬英九無三軍統帥的見識，再指「馬辦不如台辦」，字字句句皆是「彼可取而代之」；宋又主張，應當立即將總統選舉改為「絕對多數制」，意謂如此他參選即無罣礙。最令人發噱的是：宋為表示無私，還要蘇貞昌也來參選總統，這樣就能各遂所願。宋楚瑜將自己的總統之路規劃至如此面面俱到的地步，若不是瘋言囈語，亦是太過一廂情願！

再談立委選舉。從親民黨首波提名名單，及聲稱仍將多波提名，就可看出，宋楚瑜的首要目標是要增加民進黨當選立委的名額；首波提名在許多藍營明明已居劣勢或領先極微的地區，親民黨也硬要提名，即擺明了一定要拱民進黨當選的態勢。因為，親民黨若只在少數幾個藍軍具巨幅優勢的地區提名，頂多只能取代國民黨，減少國民黨的立委席次而已；但唯有在藍軍艱困地區「遍地烽火」地大量提名，才能增加民進黨的席位，俾相對增加親民黨成為「關鍵少數」的機率。這就是宋楚瑜在立委選舉既毒又狠的大戰略。

據上所論，宋楚瑜若以「倒馬而取代之」為核心目標，則除非他當選總統，不能遂此心志；但宋楚瑜又絕無當選總統的可能性，他總不能以「我參選總統是要蔡英文當選」向社會交代吧？

然而，宋若不參選總統，則其立委選舉的布局即殊堪質疑：一、親民黨若僅「烽火提名」立委，但宋楚瑜不選總統，則一定不會導致「宋上馬下」的結果，頂多造成「馬下蔡上」；因此，以參選立委來「倒馬扶宋」，這顯然是文不對題。二、親民黨參選立委，倘若是「烽火提名」，所追求的是「增加民進黨席次的效果」大於「親民黨當選的效果」，亦即損藍、利綠、橘又吃不到，則親民黨未獲其利，整個政局卻將承負其後果，試問所為何來？

宋楚瑜絕無可能跳脫「成事不足，敗事有餘」的侷限；他必須決定，是否要在這場選舉中，扮演一個對大局只有「破壞性」而全無「建設性」的角色。畢竟，這是一場「國民黨馬英九」及「民進黨蔡英文」兩黨雙英相爭的五五波惡戰；宋楚瑜可以仇馬反馬倒馬，但若他自己不可能倒馬取而代之，則他必須解釋，為何在「國民黨馬英九」與「民進黨蔡英文」的相對選擇中，他一定要拉垮國民黨及馬英九，而協助保送民進黨及蔡英文？難道倒馬挺蔡竟是宋楚瑜的核心戰略目標？

總之，宋若親自參選總統，以「馬下宋上」為目標，則其「烽火提名」的立委布局即具合理正當性，反正就是要拉垮馬政權罷了！但若宋楚瑜不參選總統，卻在立委選舉中操弄「損藍、利綠，橘吃不到」的報復手段，這其實無法實現「倒馬扶宋／馬下宋上」的目標，反而令社會承受撕裂的後果。因而，宋若不參選總統，他就必須解釋為何要在立委選舉「烽火提名」，擺明了以保送民進黨為主要目標？即使宋楚瑜自甘被綠營利用為倒馬、撕裂藍的工具，親民黨欲參選立委者也不一定要自甘淪為宋楚瑜洩忿發飆的工具。

試想：選戰開火後，倘若一方面看到不參選總統的宋楚瑜每天盯著馬英九開罵，另一方面又看到親民黨在立委選區中擺明了以保送民進黨當選為主要任務，這是如何荒謬怪誕的場景？宋楚瑜已騎虎難下，但他的立委選舉追隨者可以選擇不被利用。