Tsai Ing-wen Nukes Cross-Strait Trade and Economic Relations

Tsai Ing-wen Nukes Cross-Strait Trade and Economic Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 25, 2011

Summary: DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen refers to her presidential campaign platform as the "Platform for the Coming Decade." In the section on cross-Strait relations, Tsai denies the existence of a 1992 Consensus. If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, her denial will become an atomic bomb dropped on cross-Strait economic and trade relations. The peaceful and mutually beneficial economic and trade exchanges that the governments and people on both sides of the Strait have enjoyed over the past three years will be destroyed overnight. To no one's surprise, Mainland officials have already responded. They have said that repudiation of the 1992 Consensus is "unacceptable to the Mainland side." They have said that if such a policy is implemented, "cross-Strait negotiations will be impossible."

Full Text below:

DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen refers to her presidential campaign platform as the "Platform for the Coming Decade." In the section on cross-Strait relations, Tsai denies the existence of the 1992 Consensus. If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, her denial will become an atomic bomb dropped on cross-Strait economic and trade relations. The peaceful and mutually beneficial economic and trade exchanges that the governments and people on both sides of the Strait have enjoyed over the past three years will be destroyed overnight. To no one's surprise, Mainland officials have already responded. They have said that repudiation of the 1992 Consensus is "unacceptable to the Mainland side." They have said that if such a policy is implemented, "cross-Strait negotiations will be impossible."

The Ma administration has been in office three years. During that time, cross-Strait economic exchanges reached yet another milestone. They went from direct links, Mainland tourists visiting Taiwan, liberalization of the financial industry, and Mainland purchasing groups coming to Taiwan, to the signing of ECFA. Cross-Strait economic exchanges were finally normalized. This process, and these results, benefited both sides. The Mainland has undeniably made many concessions to improve relations with Taiwan. Overall, therefore, Taiwan has benefited more.

For example, when the financial tsunami struck, the technology industry on Taiwan stalled. Capacity utilization fell to 30%. Unpaid leaves were widespread. The Mainland launched a four trillion RMB Home Appliances for Rural Families Program. Provincial and municipal governments on the Mainland dispatched swarms of purchasing groups to Taiwan. In a single year they purchased 20 billion USD in home appliances. This was a shot in the arm for ailing industries and enterprises. Allowing Mainland tourists to visit Taiwan led to a tripling in their numbers. Last year the number increased to 1.5 million. The growth rate reached 5%. This enabled last year's tourism foreign exchange earnings to increase 30%. The signing of ECFA has yielded even more far-reaching benefits. Taiwan benefited from the tariff reduction early harvest list more than the Mainland. The side effects are even more impressive. All in all, the benefits of this wave of deepening cross-Strait trade, amount to an entirely different class of benefits that benefit the common people.

Maintaining good cross-Strait relations and further expanding economic and trade interests is essential to our economic future. It affects the economic interests and lives of everyone. The Mainland's economic strength is growing. It is now the second largest after the United States. According to forecast by international think tanks, the Mainland may overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy as early as 2020, or as late as 2030. People on the Mainland and Taiwan are the same people. We speak the same language. We have the same culture. Given the economic prospects before our noses, how can we not take advantage of them? If we refuse to have any dealings with the Mainland, our economy will fall into an abyss.

Secondly, in recent years the Mainland has become the world's factory. Seizing "Mainland opportunities" is no longer limited to mastering production factors and plant problems. Seizing Mainland opportunities means opening up one's markets, building one's brand, and enhancing one's businesses and industries. For example, the local Taiwan market has remained small. The financial sector has too many banks. These businesses would have a vastly larger market on the Mainland, enabling them to survive and to thrive.

Thirdly, exports account for about 70% of our gross domestic product (GDP). The Mainland accounts for 40% of all "exports" from Taiwan. Last year, Taiwan enjoyed a 80 billion USD cross-Strait trade surplus. Most companies listed on Taiwan have built factories on the Mainland. For many technology industries, shipments from the Mainland, already exceed 50% to 80%. People say one should not put all one's eggs in the same basket. But the reality is all our eggs are in one basket. The most important thing is to take good care of that one basket. Tsai Ing-wen's repudiation of 1992 Consensus runs the risk of destroying this basket.

Finally, the reason Taiwan and the Mainland had to rush the signing of ECFA, was the imminent launch of the ASEAN plus One (ASEAN plus the Mainland) East Asian free trade zone. Had Taiwan been excluded from the world's largest free trade zone, over half our exports would be affected. Lest we forget, ASEAN plus One was followed by ASEAN plus Three (ASEAN plus Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea). South Korea is Taiwan's toughest competitor. If cross-Strait relations change, and ECFA cannot integrate Taiwan into the ECFA regional trade zone, exports from Taiwan and the Taiwan economy will be in trouble.

Tsai Ing-wen says ECFA is a fait accompli, and that is why it will be submitted to the people for "democratic approval." But Tsai Ing-wen does not seem to realize that three years of cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges, and other interests and achievements, are all based on good faith and consensus. Take away this good faith and consensus, and ECFA will be an empty shell. The most important cornerstone of cross-Strait good faith is the 1992 Consensus. Tsai Ing-wen seems to think she can repudiate the 1992 Consensus, but the other side will continue to respond in good faith. She seems to imagine that the other side will do everything according to her play book, and handle cross-Strait economic and trade relations according to her whims. Tsai is either naive and ignorant beyond belief, or is knowingly deceiving the public.

By repudiating the 1992 Consensus, Tsai Ing-wen is gambling with her political future. Motivated by personal beliefs, ideals, ideology, or merely by a desire to consolidate her support among the Green Camp, she is "betting the farm" on cross-Strait relations. But the economy, people's livelihood, and people's hopes for cross-Strait harmony, are not chips to be gambled away on the whims of politicians.

蔡英文給兩岸經貿投下原子彈
2011-08-25 中國時報

民進黨主席、總統參選人蔡英文公布的十年政綱兩岸篇中，否認「九二共識」的存在。如果蔡英文當選，這一否認實際上是為兩岸經貿投下一顆原子彈。過去三年，兩岸政府與人民共同努力，營造出的和平前景、經貿往來、利益共享，將全部毀於一旦。不出外界所料的，大陸官方已正式發表回應，除了說不承認九二共識是「大陸方面不能接受的」外，更強調此政策一旦實施，「將導致兩岸協商無法進行」。

馬政府上台後，過去三年，兩岸經貿往來跨入了另一個新里程；從兩岸三通、陸客來台觀光、開放金融產業、大陸採購團來台、到ＥＣＦＡ簽署，兩岸經貿往來可說終於「正常化」。這個過程、這個結果，兩岸互蒙其利，一起受惠；而不能否認的是，大陸官方為了拉近與台灣的關係，而有「讓利」想法，因此整體而言，台灣受益程度又更高。

例如，在金融海嘯狂捲全球時，台灣科技產業陷入停擺困境，產能利用率降到一到三成，無薪假遍及各公司。大陸除了推出四兆人民幣的家電下鄉外，各省市也派出龐大的採購團來台採購，一年的採購金額就逾二百億美元，對國內產業與企業無異雪中送炭。此外，開放陸客來台觀光後，大陸觀光客數字也呈三級跳，去年成長到一五○萬人，成長率高達五成，這也讓我國去年的觀光外匯收入增加了近三成。至於ＥＣＦＡ的簽訂，影響更深遠；除了台灣得到的降稅早收清單多於大陸外，後續帶來的其它效應，更是可觀。綜觀而言，這一波兩岸經貿深化的利益，幾乎可說不同階級者皆有獲利，惠及庶民。

我們要強調的是：維持兩岸良好的關係，進而拓展經貿利益，絕對是台灣未來經濟大戰略上最重點的課題；這也關係著全民的經濟利益與生活。一來，大陸經濟實力與時日增，現在已是僅次於美國的第二大經濟體；依照各國智庫的預測，早則在二○二○年，晚則到二○三○年，大陸就可能超越美國成為全球第一大經濟體。對一個近在咫尺、又同文同種，語言、文化相通，前景看好的經濟體，台灣豈能不好好掌握這個契機？揚棄與其往來，台灣經濟必陷深淵。

二來，大陸近年已由全球工廠轉型為全球市場；掌握「大陸機會」，已不僅是掌握生產要素與工廠的問題，而是開拓市場、建立品牌、提升企業與產業的問題了。例如，國內長久受困於市場小、銀行過多的金融業，就能在大陸找到更大市場，延續拓展企業命脈。

三來，現實上，台灣的出口占國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）的七成左右，而台灣出口地區中，大陸就占了四成。台灣去年從兩岸貿易中取得的順差就超過八百億美元，國內上市櫃企業大部分都已在大陸有投資設廠，許多科技產業大陸的出貨量，已超過五成到八成。雖然，許多人都說「雞蛋不能放在同一個籃子裡」，但當現實上我們的雞蛋是高度集中在這個籃子中時，最要緊的就是「好好的顧好這個籃子」。蔡英文的否認九二共識，其實就有「打壞這個籃子」的風險。

最後，我們也要指出，當初台灣急於與大陸簽署ＥＣＦＡ的原因，主要是因應「東協加一」（東協加上大陸）的東亞自由貿易區上路，台灣如果被排拒在此全球最大的自由貿易區之外，則超過五成的出口都受影響。但別忘了，東協加一後接著是「東協加三」（東協加上大陸、日本、南韓）的上路。在台灣最重要的競爭對手南韓加入後，如果兩岸關係生變，台灣無法藉著ＥＣＦＡ融入此區域貿易中，則台灣出口與經濟皆危矣。

蔡英文雖然表示ＥＣＦＡ是既成事實，所以會「循民主程序處理」。但蔡英文似乎不了解，這三年來兩岸經貿的交流往來、及其產生的諸多利益及成果，有許多是基於彼此的善意與共識才取得。如果把這個善意與共識拿掉，ＥＣＦＡ也可以成為一個空殼子。蔡英文在否認兩岸善意產生的最重要基石─「九二共識」後，還期望對岸有善意，且依循她個人的主觀期望，來處理兩岸經貿關係，不是太天真、無知，就是存心欺騙社會大眾。

不論蔡英文是基於個人信念、理想、意識型態，或甚至只是為了鞏固綠營基本盤選票，而提出否認九二共識，都可以說是拿政治前途、兩岸關係去「豪賭一把」；但，台灣的經濟、民眾的生活、兩岸關係前景，都不能被政客當籌碼，放在賭桌上「豪賭一把」！