The DPP's Four Year Struggle over 2016 Has Begun

The DPP's Four Year Struggle over 2016 Has Begun
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
Thursday, April 30, 2012

Summary: The Democratic Progressive Party held its first party chairmanship election "policy presentation session" yesterday. Chen Chu yawned. Su Jia-chyuan slumped in his chair, like a sack of flour. This was perhaps the most boring and inept high-level policy presentation session that the DPP has ever held. It was truly surprising.

Full Text below:

The Democratic Progressive Party held its first party chairmanship election "policy presentation session" yesterday. Chen Chu yawned. Su Jia-chyuan slumped in his chair, like a sack of flour. This was perhaps the most boring and inept high-level policy presentation session that the DPP has ever held. It was truly surprising.

When the five candidates spoke about their political and economic programs, their statements were rife with cliches. When they spoke about countering the media, their statements were incomprehensible. Su Huan-chih spoke of "reestablishing rational debate, reestablishing brotherhood." His statement was the only bright spot in the entire affair. Su Tseng-chang actually refused to cross-examine his opponents. He said it was for the sake of party "unity." His explanation provoked embarrassed and skeptical laughter.

But the vague and superficial debate could not conceal underlying tensions. During the policy presentation session, Hsu Hsin-liang acted as if he were Tsai Ing-wen's campaign manager. Su Huan-chih expressed opposition to the party chairman running for president in 2016. The two men directed their attacks against Su Tseng-chang. This was the real truth behind this outwardly relaxed but inwardly tense party chairmanship election.

For the time being, there is no possibility that Hsu Hsin-liang can be elected party chairman. But he is unquestionably dominating the debate. He is unquestionably setting the agenda for the party chairmanship election. One. He supports Tsai Ing-wen's candidacy in 2016. Two. He wants the DPP to deal with Mainland China "on the basis of the Constitution of the Republic of China" He heaped praise on Frank Hsieh's "constitutional consensus." Three. He openly opposes Su Tseng-chang. He says Su "dropped the ball" when he was party chairman in 2008. Tsai Ing-wen later picked it up. He said Su's bid for mayor of Taipei proved that Su was "not someone who considered the bigger picture."

Hsu Hsin-liang's endorsement is a double-edged sword. He has linked his 2016 presidential endorsement to transforming the DPP's cross-Strait policy. He has endorsed Tsai Ing-wen for president. He has endorsed Frank Hsieh's cross-Strait policy. Outsiders are referring to this confluence of forces as "Hsu/Tsai/Hsieh." The three may not be an alliance in fact. But they are already an alliance in spirit. Hsu Hsin-liang has clearly touched off a struggle within the DPP over the 2016 general election. He has extended and consolidated the 2012 "Tsai/Hsieh" alliance against Su Tseng-chang.

Su, Tsai, Hsieh, and Hsu all see 2016 as their last hurrah. Su Tseng-chang has yet to openly declare his candidacy for 2016. He said "A meal is consumed one bite at a time. A job is completed one task at a time." The implication being that between the 2014 "seven in one election" and the 2016 general election, he intends to take it one step at a time. As for Tsai Ing-wen, her momentum has not diminished with her defeat in the general election. She is followed everywhere she goes. If she mutters a few innocent words into a microphone, it becomes news. She is thinking of 2016 of course. Frank Hsieh may not be destined to become president. His current ambition is to transform the DPP's cross-Strait policy. He undoubtedly hopes to make this his historical legacy. Hsu Hsin-liang championed "boldly going west." That made him a leper within his own party. Now he has made a comeback. He is participating at the highest levels in party affairs. He is publicly expounding principles once seen as heretical. He hopes to save himself from the ash heap of history. He even hopes to be seen as the Savior of the DPP, as the one who brought order out of chaos. Outsiders however, see him as a Don Quixote.

This struggle within the DPP over the 2016 presidential election, is also a struggle over the transformation of its cross-Strait policy. It is a struggle among Su, Tsai, Hsieh, and Hsu over values. Su Tseng-chang will probably win the party chairmanship election. But under election pressure, the alliance in spirit between Tsai, Hsieh, and Hsu, may morph into an alliance in fact. Su Tseng-chang may become party chairman. Tsai Ing-wen may become party spiritual leader. The two sides will probably engage in overt and covert struggles over the 2016 general election during the next four years. The competition between Su and Tsai, may transform the run up to the 2016 general election into the longest lasting party primary in DPP history.

The DPP chairmanship election has force the internal struggle over 2016 to break out in advance. This is what the DPP most fears. When rain falls from the heavens, it cannot be stopped. And so is with the coming two year party chairman term. If Su Tseng-chang remains in control of the party center, and Tsai, Hsieh, and Hsu are relegated to the periphery, how can they join forces? If they cannot join forces, and if Su is defeated in 2016, can Tsai replace him? Can the DPP afford a four year long internecine power struggle?

This struggle over power is intertwined with a struggle over the party line. One can hardly characterize this internal struggle as a critical or box office success. Hsu Hsin-liang is the self-appointed director of the show. The performers were reluctant to make their entrance so early. Hsu has attracted much public attention, provoked much public aversion, and inspired much public hope. Not without reason. It was inevitable.

Su Tseng-chang yesterday refused to cross-examine his opponents. But he can hardly refuse to take part in the struggle between himself and Tsai.

民進黨內長達4年的2016內戰開打
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.04.30 01:27 am

民進黨昨日首場黨主席選舉政見會，陳菊打瞌睡，蘇嘉全像一袋麵粉陷在座椅上；這或許是民進黨歷次高層政見會中最乏味及最低水準的一次演出，實在出人意表。

五人發言，關於政經大計，陳腔濫調；談到反制媒體，不知所云；全場大概只有蘇煥智的「重建理性討論，大家重新做兄弟」，算是一個亮點。蘇貞昌更居然無厘頭地為了「團結」，放棄交互詰問，令舉座在解嘲的尷尬笑聲中過場。

然而，空泛淺薄的論述，掩蓋不住背後的劍拔弩張。在政見會中，許信良形同是蔡英文的助選員，蘇煥智則反對黨主席參選二○一六，二人皆針對蘇貞昌而來，這才是這場黨主席選舉外弛內張的真相。

目前看不出許信良當選黨主席的可能性，但他無疑主導了這場黨主席選舉的論述與定義。他的政見主軸是：一、支持蔡英文再戰二○一六。二、主張民進黨應「根據中華民國憲法」與中國打交道，高度推讚謝長廷提出的「憲法共識」。三、他在接受媒體訪問時，公開否定蘇貞昌，謂蘇在二○○八拒任黨主席，「沒有承擔責任」（後來由蔡英文出任）；又稱蘇自行宣佈參選台北市長，「不是顧全大局的人」。

許信良「一箭雙鵰」，他將民進黨二○一六總統大選的人選抉擇，與民進黨兩岸政策的轉型綁在一起；又把總統人選綁住蔡英文，再將兩岸政策綁住謝長廷。於是，外界所稱的「許蔡謝」，即使不是操作面的聯手，亦已成精神面的結盟；許信良無疑提早掀開了民進黨內二○一六大選內戰的戰火，且是延續二○一二「蔡謝」二人對抗蘇貞昌的架構，將之再度定型化。

蘇蔡謝許四人，皆將二○一六視為人生最後一役。蘇貞昌當然志在二○一六，只是未便明言。他說，「飯要一口口吃，事情一件一件做」，言外之意就是，要從二○一四「七合一」，通往二○一六大選，「一步一步爬樓梯」。至於蔡英文，其聲勢行情並未因大選落敗而受挫，迄今在任何場合，不論她對麥克風說兩句什麼無關痛癢的話，皆能成為新聞；她心中當然有二○一六。謝長廷或許已與總統大位無緣，如今他的志業在創造民進黨的兩岸新論述，不啻欲以此為自己的歷史品牌。許信良則曾因倡議「大膽西進」，成為黨內過街老鼠，如今竟又回到黨內最高論壇，公開闡述那些過去被視為離經叛道的主張；他非但要將自己從歷史灰燼中救出來，儼然亦自視為民進黨內「撥亂反正」的救主，雖然在外人看來似唐吉訶德。

這是民進黨內二○一六總統大選之戰，也是民進黨兩岸政策轉型之戰，更是蘇蔡謝許四人的人生最後價值之戰。目前看來，蘇貞昌可能贏得黨主席選舉，但「蔡謝許」的「精神結盟」在選後即可能轉化成「操作結盟」；蘇貞昌在黨體制內做「黨主席」，蔡英文則在黨體制外做「精神領袖」，雙方勢將在明槍暗箭中為二○一六大選進行角力拔河；未來四年，這場蘇蔡競爭，可能使得二○一六大選成為民進黨史上耗時最長、拖延最久的一場總統候選人逐鹿大賽。

黨主席選舉使民進黨二○一六的內戰提前開打，這正是民進黨最擔憂的局面；但是，現在看來，這卻已然是天要下雨攔不住的事。未來兩年黨主席任期內，倘若蘇貞昌在黨中央，蔡謝許在黨外圍，能否整合？倘不能整合，蘇若敗於二○一四，蔡會否代之而起，民進黨又能否承受得起內部長達四年的切割與拉鋸？

這場權力競逐與路線轉型交纏糾葛的黨內競合大戲，若想演得叫好又叫座，誠非易事；許信良儼然是毛遂自薦的導演，逼出了原來還不想這麼早出場的演員們，許之所以受大家矚目，及在黨內惹有些人憎厭又令有些人期待，皆非無因，實屬必然。

蘇貞昌昨日放棄了向對手交互詰問，但他自己卻躲不過這場蘇蔡競爭即將撲面而來的所有難題。