Wednesday, April 25, 2012

We Cannot Evade the South China Sea Issue

We Cannot Evade the South China Sea Issue
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 25, 2012

Summary: Recently the Asian-Pacific region has been far from pacific. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has announced that Tokyo intends to purchase the Diaoyutai Islands. The United States has conducted joint military exercises with the Philippines, and joint military exercises with Vietnam. Russia and Mainland China have conducted  joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea. The clash between Mainland China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island in the South China Sea has gone on for 14 days.

Full Text below:

Recently the Asian-Pacific region has been far from pacific. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has announced that Tokyo intends to purchase the Diaoyutai Islands. The United States has conducted joint military exercises with the Philippines, and joint military exercises with Vietnam. Russia and Mainland China have conducted  joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea. The clash between Mainland China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island in the South China Sea has gone on for 14 days.

Under the circumstances, this may well become the norm, and not the exception. With the rise of Mainland China, the power structure in the Asian-Pacific region has undergone irreversible changes.

Other Asian-Pacific countries are wary about Mainland China's rise. In economics and trade, they may be increasingly dependent upon Mainland China for resources and markets. But when it comes to national security, they fear Mainland Chinese dominance. That is why several nations have welcomed the United States' announcement that it is returning to the Asian-Pacific region.

On the surface, the United States does not oppose Mainland China's rise, Yet it repeatedly stresses that Mainland China must own up to its international responsibilities, and comply with international norms. One of the most sensitive areas is the South China Sea issue.

The United States itself refused to sign the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Yet it supports ASEAN countries expanding their territorial claims based on the Convention on the Law of the Sea. Two years ago, at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton argued on behalf of Philippines and Vietnamese claims in the South China Sea. The US position has become increasingly clear. She expressed support for these claims through her terminology. She pointedly used the term "Western Philippine Sea," instead of South China Sea. She also donated a decommissioned warship, stationed U.S. troops. and held a joint annual exercise.

The South China Sea is one of the United States' many interests. Mainland China however, considers the South China Sea a core interest. Mainland China cannot help but wonder. Is the US attempting to use these countries in the Asian-Pacific region to bring down Mainland China? With the backing of the United States, the Philippines and Vietnam have become increasingly aggressive. They have announced the development of tourist routes and international competitive bidding for the exploitation of oil and gas in the South China Sea.

The current confrontation in the South China Sea between Mainland China and the Philippines is over Huangyan Island. Twelve fishing boats from the Mainland were operating in a Huangyan Island lagoon. Philippine warships first attempted to seize the fishing vessels. They then attempted to bottle the fishing vessels up in the lagoon, As a result, two Mainland ocean surveillance ships rushed to the scene to intervene. The result was a confrontation between the two sides at sea.

Militarily the Philippines is the weakest of the ASEAN countries, The reason it behaved so brashly, was the joint US-Philippine military exercises held on the 16th, code named "Balikatan" (shoulder to shoulder). The U.S. military stressed that this was just a routine disaster relief exercise, not directed against any particular party, But the scale was unprecedented. The exercises took place in Palawan waters, near the South China Sea. Drills included "attacks against offshore drilling platforms and a joint US-Philippine military force regaining control." These may have misled leaders in Manila and encouraged them to precipitate a confrontation with Beijing.

This forced Mainland China to adopt a less ambiguous attitude and to take more forceful action. In recent years, Beijing has placed increased importance on its core interests. PLA military spending has increased. Aircraft carriers have been incorporated into its military in order to defend its core interests. The People's Liberation Army aggressively mobilized. It got tough with the Philippines. The Mainland's most advanced armed fisheries ship arrived at Huangyan Island, Nuclear submarines were deployed, and proceeded to the disputed waters. When Defense Minister Liang Xian-lie inspected the Guangzhou Military Region, he said, "The Guangzhou Military Region will be in the vanguard in the event of a major assignment."

More recently tensions have eased. On the 22nd, the two Mainland ships left Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. Only one ocean surveillance ship remains in the waters to enforce the law. The Mainland Ambassador in Manila said the Mainland is reducing tensions on Huangyan Island. He said it is clearly willing to resolve the incident through amicable diplomatic means.

Officials hope to reduce tensions. But the Mainland public is willing to fight to protect the nation's sovereignty in the South China Sea. The issue is particularly sensitive on the eve of the Chinese Communist Party's 18th Party Congress, Power struggles could play a role. That means Beijing might attempt to teach the Philippines a lesson. But even if a new leader takes over, the South China Sea issue will remain difficult to resolve. It can only become increasingly intractable.

In the East China Sea, the Diaoyutai Islands dispute has turned Japan and Mainland China inside out. The imaginary enemy in annual US-Japan security treaty exercises is no longer an amphibious landing with tanks from the north (Russia), It is an enemy occupying outlying islands (Mainland China). Extreme right-wing politician Shintaro Ishihara is stirring the pot. He said "If Tokyo does not open fire, the country will not face up to and deal with this problem." He has made the situation even more complicated.

On the 23rd Mainland China and Russia held joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, on an unprecedented scale. The theme of the exercise was "joint maritime defense and the defense of sea lanes." On the 21st, the Russian fleet sailed south through the Sea of Japan. It did not bypass the Japanese archipelago. This too was seen as a show of strength toward the US and Japan.

Consider the Asian-Pacific strategic scenario. The US and Mainland China are the two major powers. The other countries are reluctant to choose sides. By siding with the US against Mainland China, some countries have received increased U.S. military support. But they are reluctant to give up their seat on China's economic bandwagon.

The Republic of China is an Asian-Pacific government, It has relations with the Mainland. The two sides have a special relationship. It also has relations with the entire region, The United States is returning to Asia. That too is a problem we must face.

The Republic of China government has a stake in the South China Sea sovereignty dispute. It occupies the largest island -- Nansha Taiping Island. In March, armed Vietnamese ships approached Nansha Taiping Island, twice. They even fired shots in provocation, Our own Coast Guard station personnel fired warning shots in response. Our government lodged a protest through channels. The Vietnam claimed its ships were merely conducting routine patrols.

Both Taiping Island and Diaoyutai are Republic of China territory, It is not often that there is consensus between the ruling and opposition parties. Hundreds of Blue vs. Green issues are side issues. The government has a good chance to reach a clear consensus. More importantly, it has a chance to develop a set of specific strategies. Whether we are dealing with the Mainland, the United States, or with our Asian-Pacific neighbors. we should do so thoroughly and smoothly, without sacrificing our national interests.

We sit at home. But the controversy has come knocking on our door. We cannot evade the South China Sea issue.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報  2012.04.25
社論-南海問題 不容我們忽視逃避
本報訊

     最近亞太很不平靜。日本東京都知事石原慎太郎宣布,東京要買下釣魚台群島;美國分別與與菲律賓、越南演習;而俄羅斯與中國則在黃海舉行海上軍事演習;中國與菲律賓為了南海黃岩島的海上對恃,已經進入第十四天。

     這樣的情況,未來將是常態,而不是偶發;因為亞太的權力結構,隨著中國崛起,已經有了不可逆的變化。

     亞太國家對中國崛起是有戒心的;雖然經貿上,越來越依賴中國的資源與市場,但是在戰略安全上,擔心中國獨霸;所以美國宣布要重返亞太,受到各國熱烈的歡迎。

     美國表面上雖不反對中國崛起,但是卻一再強調要中國負擔國際責任,遵守國際規範;其中最敏感的區域,就是在南海問題。

     美國自己不通過聯合國海洋法公約,卻支持東協各國基於海洋法公約而擴張領海。兩年前,希拉蕊國務卿在東協外長會議上,支持菲律賓與越南的南海主張,政策就越來越明顯。她除了以言語表達支持「西菲律賓海」(即南中國海)的主權要求,還贈送退役的軍艦,派出美軍駐紮,舉行聯合年度演習。

     南海僅是美國利益之一,中國卻認定是核心利益,這不禁讓中國懷疑,美國是否有藉亞太各國拖垮中國的企圖;而有美國的撐腰,菲律賓與越南等國,越加強勢,不時宣布要開發旅遊路線、開採南海石油和天然氣問題公開國際競標。

     這次中菲在南海黃岩島海域對峙,起因於十二艘大陸籍漁船在黃岩島瀉湖內作業時,遭菲律賓軍艦企圖扣押並把漁船圍堵在瀉湖內,結果被隨後趕到的兩艘大陸海監船阻止,引發雙方船艦在海域對峙。

     菲律賓是東協各國軍力最弱的,之所以敢如此,與十六日開始的美菲「肩併肩二○一二」聯合演習有關。儘管美軍強調此次只是例行的救災演習,不針對任何人,但規模空前龐大,演習地點選在靠近中國南海海域的巴拉望海域,具體操演包括「海上鑽井平臺遇襲,美菲武力奪回」,都會誤導馬尼拉高層,敢於與北京對抗。

     這逼得中國也必須要採取更明確的態度與動作。近年來北京對核心利益特別重視,解放軍軍費的增加,航空母艦的成軍都是為了保衛核心利益。解放軍一度積極動員要強硬對付菲律賓,大陸最先進的武裝漁政船已抵達黃岩島,核潛艇也已出動駛往爭議海域,國防部長梁光烈巡視廣州軍區時更說:「廣州軍區將在重大任務中當尖兵」。

     不過最近事態已經緩和下來,大陸兩艘船艦二十二日已駛離南海黃岩島海域,只剩一艘海監船仍在海域執法;駐馬尼拉大使館表示,大陸正在使黃岩島的緊張局勢降級,願意透過外交手段友好解決這一事件。

     雖然官方希望降低緊張,但大陸輿論仍強調不惜一戰,以維護南海主權;此事在十八大前格外敏感,在權力鬥爭的影響下,也不排除北京會想給菲律賓「教訓」,但即使是新領導人接任,南海問題也難以解決,只會越來越棘手。

     在東海,由於釣魚台爭議,日本與中國也外弛內張。美日安保年度演習的假想敵已經不是從北部登陸的坦克(俄羅斯),而改為突襲佔據離島的敵國(中國大陸);現在極右派政客石原慎太郎進來攪局,表示「東京如果不鳴槍,國家就不會面對、處理這個問題」,更把情況變得更複雜化。

     廿三日在黃海海域進行的中俄海上軍演規模空前。此次演習的主題是「海上聯合防禦和保衛海上交通線作戰」,俄羅斯艦隊廿一日直穿日本海南下,而非繞過日本列島,也被視為有向美日示威的意味。

     綜觀亞太局勢,現在呈現出美中兩雄爭霸,各國其實並不願意被迫選邊,即使部分國家得到更多美國軍力支援與中國抗衡,也不願放棄搭中國發展的便車。

     台灣是亞太國家之一,與大陸關係,有兩岸的特殊性,同時也有本區域的一般性,美國重返亞洲,也是我們所必須面對的新問題。

     台灣在南海主權爭議中,佔有最大的島嶼南沙太平島,越南武裝船在三月,曾經二度靠近南沙太平島,還開槍挑釁,海巡署駐守人員也鳴槍示警。對此,我方透過管道抗議,越方則解釋艦艇是例行巡邏。

     無論是太平島,或是釣魚台,都是我國領土,難得的是朝野各黨對此都有共識,比起其他動輒藍綠分邊的議題,政府有更好的機會可以凝聚明確立場。更重要的,發展出一套具體策略,無論是對大陸、對美國,或是對亞太鄰國,都能夠肆應裕如,不至於違背我國的國家利益。

     人在家中坐,爭議已經打到門口,南海問題已經不容我們逃避。


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