Ideological Inflexibility Means Economic Suffocation

Ideological Inflexibility Means Economic Suffocation
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
December 20, 2013

Summary: Taiwan's economy has long been suffocated. It must not become the victim of DPP ideology. The business community and the general public are interested in Taiwan's future. They must speak up. The political deadlock must be broken.

Full text below:

The trade in services agreement has been stalled in the legislature for six months. The Blue and Green camps have resumed fighting. The KMT hopes to reach an agreement before the legislature adjourns in January. It hopes to pave the way for other cross-Strait economic and trade agreements. But the trade in services agreement has gradually become an ideological war. The Blue Camp wants to convene an emergency session and pass it. Chaos may be inevitable. Sure enough, in the end the KMT legislative caucus withdrew. Everything has now returned to square one.

President Ma Ying-jeou has repeatedly said he wants the Legislative Yuan to pass the trade in services agreement, as soon as possible. But the legislature is about to adjourn. The KMT legislative caucus intended to hold an internal affairs committee review this week. But the Green Camp got wind of this and voiced strong objections. DPP Policy Committee Chief Joseph Wu warned the KMT not to misjudge the situation, and not to underestimate DPP determination. He accused Ma Ying-jeou of being too eager to pass the trade in services agreement. He accused the KMT legislative caucus of destroying the results of interparty consultation. He demanded to know what the urgency was.

Consider the Blue and Green camp approaches to dialogue and rhetoric. The two camps have are fundamentally different goals and motivations. Expecting the ruling and opposition parties to reach a compromise on the trade in services agreement is a pipe dream.

The Blue Camp is in a hurry to pass the trade in services agreement, primarily for economic motives. It hopes to introduce Mainland capital into Taiwan and to help Taiwan's service sector break into the Mainland market. Taiwan's service sector investment environment is deteriorating year by year. For years no major investments have been made. Introducing large inflows of Mainland capital will not be easy. Introducing capital from Mainland based SMEs to Taiwan can be another source of Mainland capital.

The Green Camp does not care about this. As they see it, large inflows of Mainland capital will eat away at local Taiwan service industries. The market will gradually be turned over to Mainland capital. That is why Joseph Wu stresses the need to "safeguard Taiwan's industrial and labor employment rights." The DPP insists that its concern is the middle and lower classes. The DPP also claims that the cross-Strait trade in services agreement is an unequal agreement. It compares it to the "unequal treaties" and alleges that Taiwan simply cannot withstand the invasion of Mainland capital.

Behind all these economic rationales of course, lie politically motivated partisan and election interests. The Blue and Green camps each have their own spin on the matter. They show no sign of willingness to compromise. The trade in services agreement has become an ideological dispute. The battlefield may gradually expand from the legislature to the streets. The two sides have less and less room for compromise.

Consider a more rational point of view. Grassroots level service industries on Taiwan probably cannot be persuaded that the trade in services agreement will not harm them, and that their impact will be limited. Mainland businesses have the opportunity to invest anywhere in the world. Taiwan's investment environment is not necessarily their best option. Moreover, Taiwan's investment environment is deteriorating. In the end, how much attraction will it actually have for Mainland capital? People probably have a pretty good idea.

Late last year the Mainland's CCTV network broadcast the "Wenzhou Family" TV series. Li Li-chun from Taiwan was cast in the lead. The series depicted the father of a family who goes to northern Shaanxi to drill for oil. The son goes to Heilongjiang to sell eyeglasses. The daughter goes to Italy to open a garment factory. This may be a fiction, but it underscores the Mainland's rapid economic growth. It highlights the many opportunities to make one's fortune. A single family does not put all its economic eggs in one basket. Over the past 30 years, the Mainland has maintained an annual growth rate of approximately 10%. This year it is undergoing economic transition. Justin Yifu Lin is a former vice president of the World Bank. Lin estimates that the Mainland will continue to grow rapidly for at least 20 more years. The Mainland is growing rapidly. Taiwan's protected grassroots level service industries are non-competitive. It would be better to open the sector up to both Mainland capital and Mainland personnel. Doing so would enhance Taiwan's economic competitiveness.

A little more market opening and a little less protectionism. would make Taiwan an investment haven. An Academia Sinica report clearly pointed this out. Taiwan's problem is that it has too much private capital and no place to invest it. Funds go into real estate speculation or into the bank as savings. This is why Taiwan's investment environment now trails the other Asian Tigers.

The DPP is using protectionism to thwart Mainland investment in Taiwan. It is denying Taiwan's service industries the opportunity to expand into the Mainland market. Does this really help Taiwan? Or does it hinder it? The DPP has many economic experts. They should to be able to conduct a rational analysis. The DPP must not allow ideology to determine cross-Strait economic policy. That is not what responsible political parties do.

Taiwan's economy has long been suffocated. It must not become the victim of DPP ideology. The business community and the general public are interested in Taiwan's future. They must speak up. The political deadlock must be broken.

社論－解開服貿協議死結 系列一 意識型態打結 台灣經濟更悶
    2013-12-23 01:26
    中國時報
    【本報訊】

    　在立法院躺了半年的《服貿協議》，藍綠雙方又開始叫戰，國民黨希望在立法院一月份休會前能有一個好的結果，為後續兩岸其他經貿談判打開活路。但是服貿協議已經逐漸變成意識型態的戰爭，藍營想在臨時會中通過，恐怕難免一場亂局，最後立法院國民黨團果然退縮，一切重回原點。

    　馬英九總統多次表態希望立法院盡速審查通過兩岸服貿協議，但是立法院本會期已經進入尾聲，國民黨團原本有意安排本周在內政委員會進入審查，綠營聽聞消息後表示強烈反對，民進黨政策會執行長吳釗燮警告國民黨，不要誤判情勢，低估民進黨的決心。他甚至質疑馬英九為了急於通過服貿協議，訓令國民黨立院黨團撕毀朝野協商結論，到底在急什麼？

    　從藍綠雙方的對話與議題操作手法，可以看出雙方的著重點與動機根本不同，想透過朝野協商來解決服貿協議的困局，根本是緣木求魚。

    　藍營急著讓服貿協議過關，主要出於經濟動機，希望把大陸資金活水引進台灣，同時把台灣服務業優勢帶進大陸。但台灣投資環境逐年惡化，多年已無大型投資案，要引進大陸大型資金並不容易，能引進大陸的中小型企業資金進入台灣，也可以成為大陸資金的活水。

    　但是綠營最擔心的就在此，他們認為，如果大量的陸資進入台灣，會吃盡台灣基層服務業的地盤，慢慢把市場讓出給陸資。所以，吳釗燮強調要「守護台灣產業及勞工就業權益」，民進黨堅持站在關懷中下層民眾最重要的市場，民進黨也認為，服貿協議兩岸所開放的項目並不對等，類似「不平等條約」，台灣根本抵擋不住陸資的侵蝕。

    　當然這一切經濟理由的背後，還充滿對國共兩黨政治動機的懷疑與選舉政治利益的盤算。藍綠雙方各有說詞，而且都沒有讓步的跡象下，兩岸服貿協議已經變成雙方的意識型態之爭，隨戰場可能漸漸從立法院擴散到街頭，使得雙方協商的空間越來越小。

    　其實，如果從一個比較理性的選擇來看，儘管不能說服貿協議不會影響台灣的基層服務業，但衝擊其實非常有限。大陸企業能到世界各地投資的機會多得是，台灣的投資環境，不一定會是他們最好選擇。何況台灣的投資環境每下愈況，到底對陸資還有多少吸引力，大家心裡應該有數。

    　去年底由大陸中央電視台所播放的《溫州一家人》電視連續劇，在台灣演員李立群領銜主演下，描寫這一家人父親到陝北挖石油，男孩到黑龍江賣眼鏡，女兒則到義大利開服裝工廠，雖然這只是一部虛構的電視劇，但也顯現經濟快速成長的大陸，發財機會非常多，同一家人都不會把家人放到同樣一個籃子裡。過去30年，大陸每年經濟成長率大致都可以維持10％，今年開始進入經濟轉型期，世界銀行前副總裁林毅夫估計，中國至少將維持20年的中速成長。面對快速成長的中國，台灣與其保護競爭力不足的低階服務業，不如開放包括大陸在內的全球資金與人才進入，提升經濟競爭力。

    　多一點開放，少一點阻撓，台灣才會變成投資天堂。中研院經濟所的一份報告中明顯指出，台灣經濟的問題是民間資金太多，卻找不到可以投資項目，資金不是去炒房地產，就是放在銀行當成儲蓄資金，這也是台灣投資環境越來越居於4小龍之末的緣故。

    　民進黨使用「保護主義」的想法阻撓陸資來台，更阻擾服務業進入大陸成長中大市場的機會，到底對台灣是加分，還是減分，民進黨那麼多經濟專家，應該可以做出合理的分析，民進黨不應該把兩岸經貿行為意識型態化，這絕對不是一個負責任的政黨所該做的。

    　台灣經濟已經很悶了，不能再讓民進黨的意識形態困住台灣，企業界及關心台灣經濟前途的大眾，要勇於發聲，這個政治死結一定要打開。