Sunday, December 1, 2013

Su Tseng-chang Will Enable Beijing to Eat the DPP's Lunch

Su Tseng-chang Will Enable Beijing to Eat the DPP's Lunch
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 29, 2013


Summary: The DPP will conclude its Huashan Conference in December. Its "Summary Report on [Mainland] China Policy" will be published in January of next year. Only a month remains in which to change course. Su Tseng-chang must think hard. He must cease being intractable. He must not wait for the 2016 presidential campaign or the election of a DPP president, only to be eaten by Beijing.

Full text below:

The DPP "Summary Report on [Mainland] China Policy" calls for "constitutional consensus" as the basis for exchanges with Mainland China.  Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Fan Liqing responded. He said the DPP must repudiate its Taiwan independence and "one country on each side" claims. Fan said "using fuzzy concepts (such as so-called constitutional consensus) as the political basis for exchanges with the Mainland is unacceptable."

Su Tseng-chang shot back. He said, "This shows that the other side is intractable and is determined to gobble up Taiwan." Actually the widely held consensus is that Su Tseng-chang has hijacked DPP cross-strait policy, and that if he remains intractable, Beijing will gobble up the DPP.

The DPP must alter its cross-strait policy. It can no longer remain intractable. The DPP longs for a return to power in 2016. If the DPP fails to return to power, it can clamor for Taiwan independence all it wants, but it will merely become irrelevant. Su Tseng-chang has set his sights on the 2016 presidential election. But he cannot bring himself to abandon his Taiwan independence stance and his advocacy of "one country on each side." Does he really intend to wait until he is elected president, then butt heads with Beijing over a "constitutional consensus?" Besides, suppose Su Tseng-chang is defeated in the DPP presidential primary? Is another DPP candidate such as Tsai Ing-wen, supposed to clash with Beijing over "constitutional consensus?"

A DPP presidential candidate may not may not win in 2016. But can he or she force Beijing to accept the DPP's "constitutional consensus?" Can the DPP refuse Beijing's call to "repudiate Taiwan independence and the advocacy of one country on each side?" When the time comes, the truth will emerge. There will be no surprises. Beijing will eat the DPP's lunch.

The DPP has only two cross-strait policy options. One. It can reject inclusion in any one China framework. These are Su Tseng-chang's own words. It can take the Taiwan independence path, the "one nation on each side" path. Two. It can acknowledge that "We can no longer take the Taiwan independence path. We can no longer turn back." These, ironically, are also Su Tseng-chang's words. It can fully include Taiwan in the "one China framework," i.e., the "one China constitution." It can engage in coopetition with the Mainland. It can acknowledge that Taiwan independence is a dead end. If the DPP attempts to promote Taiwan independence, Beijing will eat the DPP's lunch. The DPP must recognize that the only way to avoid this consequence is to recognize the "one China Constitution" and the "one China framework."

The DPP refuses to recognize the 1992 consensus. That is its most grievous mistake. If the DPP were to accept the 1992 consensus, and support "one China, different interpretations," it could use this still somewhat fuzzy concept to establish strategic depth. But if DPP rejects the strategic ambiguity of the 1992 consensus and "one China, different interpretations," Beijing must pressure the DPP to repudiate its Taiwan independence stance and its advocacy of "one country on each side." Beijing must demand that the DPP repudiate its "Taiwan Independence Party Platform." Once upon a time there was a room divider known as the 1992 consensus. It divided a single room into two spaces. But the DPP has destroyed the room divider. Now whenever one enters the room, one sees one undivided space. One immediately sees the DPP's altar, and its sacred icon, the "Taiwan Independence Party Platform," and its irresponsible claims. In 2016, the DPP presidential candidate may or may not be elected president. But he or she will be the focus of cross-Strait attention. The DPP will not be able to obfuscate or evade the issue. When the time comes, will the DPP eat Beijing's lunch? Or will Beijing eat the DPP's lunch?

Su Tseng-chang surely realizes that the DPP is mired in a cross-strait policy crisis. Otherwise, he would not have convened a months long cross-strait policy conference. Su Tseng-chang's problem is that he wants to have it both ways. He acts tough, but he is weak. On the one hand he realizes "we can no longer go back to Taiwan independence." On the other hand, he "rejects inclusion within the one China framework." One the one hand, he falls back on Frank Hsieh's "constitutional consensus." On the other hand, he equivocates and uses "constitutional consensus" as a weasel word and an escape clause. Su Tseng-chang said the DPP "can no longer go back to Taiwan independence." Therefore it is perfectly natural that Beijing would want the DPP to repudiate Taiwan independence and "one country on each side." If Su Tseng-chang cannot bring himself to do so, how can show Beijing has actually believes the DPP "can no longer go back to Taiwan independence?"

When Chen Shui-bian was running for president, former chairman Lin Yi-hsiung helped blaze a trail. The Democratic Progressive Party needs someone like Lin Yi-hsiung. Su Tseng-chang has hijacked the DPP party chairmanship in order to run for president. But inside and outside the DPP, support for Su remains weak. The will to transform DPP cross-strait policy also remains weak. As matters stand, Su Tseng-chang can no longer move down this road. Yet he clings to the party chairmanship. This makes it impossible for others to clear the way ahead. If this stalemate persists until 2016, the DPP presidential candidate will run for president. He or she may or may not win. But he or she will have to face Beijing's call to "repudiate the Taiwan independence party platform and return to the one China framework. At that point Beijing will surely eat the DPP's lunch. What's more, it will surely eat Taipei's lunch as well.

The DPP will conclude its Huashan Conference in December. Its "Summary Report on [Mainland] China Policy" will be published in January of next year. Only a month remains in which to change course. Su Tseng-chang must think hard. He must cease being intractable. He must not wait for the 2016 presidential campaign or the election of a DPP president, only to be eaten by Beijing.

這樣的蘇貞昌 將使民進黨被北京吃定
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.12.01 03:46 am

民進黨《對中政策總結報告》初稿指出,將以「憲政共識」作為與中國交流的基礎;北京國台辦發言人范麗青回稱,民進黨必須放棄台獨的立場與一邊一國的主張,「用一些模糊的概念(指「憲政共識」)作為與大陸交往的政治基礎,大陸不可能接受。」

對此,蘇貞昌作出強硬回應稱:「由此可見對岸是鐵板一塊,而且吃定台灣。」然而,眾所共見的事實卻是:被蘇貞昌所挾持的民進黨的兩岸政策如果仍是「鐵板一塊」,民進黨才將被北京「吃定」。

民進黨必須調整其兩岸政策,不能再是「鐵板一塊」,這是因為民進黨想要在二○一六重返執政;倘若民進黨不重返執政,則兀自搞他沒完沒了的台獨或一邊一國,其實皆已無關宏旨。然而,蘇貞昌既志在競選二○一六總統,卻不能在「放棄台獨立場與一邊一國主張」上有所表態,難道要等到他當選總統後,再與北京在「憲政共識」上開罵吵架?何況,如果蘇貞昌在民進黨內的總統初選落敗,難道要另一位民進黨候選人(蔡英文?)去頂著蘇貞昌的「憲政共識」與北京開罵吵架?

到了二○一六年,民進黨不論參選總統或當選總統,難道能強迫北京接受其「憲政共識」?民進黨又豈能不回答北京「必須放棄台獨立場與一邊一國主張」的問題?到了那個時候,不免要見真章,而絕無意外,民進黨必將被北京「吃定」。

對台灣而言,兩岸政策只有兩個選擇:一、「拒絕納入一中架構」(蘇貞昌語),走台獨及一邊一國的道路;二、「不能再走回頭路搞台獨」(也是蘇貞昌語),全力在「一中架構」(即「一中憲法」)下與大陸發展並建構競合關係。然而,對台灣來說,台獨已無生路,必被北京「吃定」;「一中憲法/一中架構」則是唯一可能不被「吃定」的活路。

民進黨否定「九二共識」,是最大的敗筆。因為,民進黨若接受「九二共識」,支持「一中各表」,尚可藉此「模糊的概念」建立戰略縱深。但是,民進黨放棄了「九二共識/一中各表」的戰略性模糊,使得如今北京幾乎言必稱「必須放棄台獨立場及一邊一國主張」,並直言民進黨必須廢除《台獨黨綱》。這好比原來有個「九二共識」的門簾,尚有內外之別;現在民進黨撤掉了門簾,來人就直接登堂入室,對著你家的神主牌《台獨黨綱》說三道四。二○一六年,民進黨參選總統或當選總統,這必皆是兩岸的焦點議題,民進黨將無「模糊」或「閃躲」的餘地;那麼,屆時將是民進黨「吃定」北京?或北京「吃定」民進黨?

其實,蘇貞昌並非不知民進黨已陷兩岸政策的危機,否則就不會一連幾個月召開那麼多場兩岸政策會議。蘇貞昌的問題,是在首鼠兩端、色厲內荏:一方面說「不能再走回頭路搞台獨」,另一方面又稱「拒絕納入一中架構」。一方面想要靠向謝長廷的「憲法共識」,另一方面卻又琵琶半遮地說成「憲政共識」;一字之差,差以千里。平情而論,蘇貞昌若說「不能再走回頭路搞台獨」,則北京希望見到民進黨「放棄台獨立場與一邊一國主張」,亦為理所當然;如果蘇貞昌這句話說不出口,如何自我印證「不能再走回頭路搞台獨」?

今天的民進黨,需要一個像為陳水扁競選總統開路的黨主席林義雄,但蘇貞昌卻是挾持著民進黨要競選總統的黨主席;由於蘇在黨內外競選總統的聲勢較弱,以致在兩岸政策上轉型的能量亦較差。如今的情景是,蘇貞昌自己打不通這條路,卻卡在黨主席的位子上,就使得黨內其他人也打不通這條路。倘若此一情勢僵持到二○一六年,在民進黨競選總統或當選總統時,再去面對北京「撤廢台獨黨綱/回到一中架構」的壓力,那麼民進黨必將被北京「吃定」,台灣亦被「吃定」。

民進黨將在十二月完成最後一場「華山會議」,而《對中政策總結報告》,則預定在明年一月公布。只剩下一個多月的調整時機,蘇貞昌宜慎思明辨,不可再「鐵板一塊」,勿待二○一六年民進黨競選總統或當選總統時被北京「吃定」。

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