Xi Jinping Meeting with Joe Biden Reveals New Great Power Relationship

Xi Jinping Meeting with Joe Biden Reveals New Great Power Relationship
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
December 6, 2013

Summary: The East China Sea situation is unpredictable. Xi Jinping champions the "Chinese Dream." It has collided with Shinzo Abe's Japanese normalization. The United States appears to be caught between the two aspirations, The two parties are engaged in a struggle. Maneuvering room is shrinking. The situation remains perilous.

Full text below:

This week U.S. Vice President Joe Biden began a tour of Japan, Mainland China, and South Korea. The tour was scheduled even before Beijing announced its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. Now however, this development has changed the focus. The entire world is focused on Biden's stop in Beijing and his meeting with Xi Jinping.

Biden and Xi will meet behind closed doors. The time alloted will be increased from 45 minutes to 2 hours. After the meeting, they will hold a brief press conference. Biden and Xi will resume their meeting again after dinner. Observers are wondering whether Biden will raise the issue of the ADIZ, both during the meeting and press conference. Biden did not say. But that does not mean the issue of ADIZ will not be raised during the meeting.

According to the Mainland Chinese Foreign Ministry, Biden and Xi will address bilateral relations and other issues of shared concern in a frank and in-depth manner. In diplomatese "frank" means that any differences will be raised and discussed.

The next day Biden attended a luncheon held by the American Chamber of Commerce. He said when he meets Xi Jinping, he will straightforwardly express US positions and expectations regarding Mainland China's sudden announcement of an East China Sea ADIZ, which was followed by heightened regional tensions. At the same time, Biden said, Washington is unwilling to strain its relations with Beijing. Therefore it vigorously promotes a new Sino-US great power relationship.

Basically the US backs Japan. This is beyond doubt. Last year, during the Huangyan Island dispute, the United States did not support the Philippines' claim of sovereignty. Asian-Pacific countries are talking in private about the United States' "Return to Asia." They are wondering whether it is tough enough to confront Mainland China. Take ADIZ. If Washington remains silent, everyone will worry that the US is retreating. But this time one of the disputants is Japan, America's most loyal ally in the Asian-Pacific. Recently, with US acquiescence, Abe proposed amending Japan's constitution. Abe proposed establishing a National Security Council, and expanding its definition of collective self-defense. Many other governments think the U.S. defense budget is tight, therefore dependent upon Japan. Only Japan enables it to return to Asia and adhere by its commitment to defend its allies.

But the United States cannot back the Japanese side unconditionally. Japan has swung too far to the right. A backlash is inevitable. South Korea and Mainland China are deeply concerned about the revival of Japanese militarism. They feel the United States has unleashed a vicious Japanese attack dog on them.

Japan claims sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. It has arrogantly proclaimed that its sovereignty must not be challenged. Last year it went so far as to announce its "nationalization." It hopes the islands will be covered by the US-Japan Security Treaty. But the US stance is clear. It acknowledges Japan's administrative authority. But it holds no position regarding the sovereignty dispute. In other words the United States has not expressed support for Japan's claim of sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands.

Observers have taken note. Biden arrived in Japan. The Abe government hoped Biden would back Japan. But three days of Japanese-US press conferences show they failed to close the gap. The United States expressed grave concern over Mainland China's announced ADIZ. But it did not demand that Mainland China take it back. This forced Abe to change his demands. Secondly, US and Japanese airline companies continue to sing different tunes regarding the submission of flight plans. Japan cannot force the United States to change its position.

International politics is realpolitik. Frankly, the US posture is based not on justice or international law. A large part of it is concern for Mainland China's reaction. Washington knows that Chinese nationalist sentiment is a powerful force. Chinese leaders must go with the flow. They dare not defy it. If the United States wishes to develop a new great power relationship with Mainland China, it cannot afford to hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.

This shows something else as well. Currently U.S. Asian-Pacific policy focuses on the relationship between US and China. Its chief focus is the new great power relationship. On November 20, National Security Advisor Susan Rice spoke on Asian-Pacific policy. She underscored the need to establish a new great power relationship between major powers. Joe Biden added that the new great power relationship between Mainland China and the US requires trust and optimism regarding each other's motives. Biden and Xi reached this important consensus. Mainland China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs concluded that both sides must promote this new Sino-US great power relationship.

From the perspective of Japan and other Asian-Pacific governments, including the ROC government on Taiwan, this "new great power relationship" looks a lot like the G2 power structure. In short, the Asian-Pacifc order will be determined by the United States and Mainland China. This is not what Japan wants to see. But the U.S. desire to return to Asia, but oppose Mainland China, is self-contradictory. The U.S. itself finds it difficult to justify. But political reality is intractable.

The East China Sea situation is unpredictable. Xi Jinping champions the "Chinese Dream." It has collided with Shinzo Abe's Japanese normalization. The United States appears to be caught between the two aspirations, The two parties are engaged in a struggle. Maneuvering room is shrinking. The situation remains perilous.

拜登會習近平透露的「新型大國關係」
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.12.06 04:21 am

美國副總統拜登本周開始日本、中國大陸與南韓三國的訪問。這次亞洲行的安排，早於東海防空識別區爭議前即已預定，但現在重點完全受此議題牽引。北京這站與習近平見面，尤其全球矚目。

拜登與習的閉門會面，從預定時間四十五分鐘延長至兩小時，會議結束簡短記者會之後，再與習進行工作晚宴。外界最關心的是，拜登有沒有在會晤中，對習近平提出識別區議題。記者會上，拜登沒提，但這並不表示在會談中也沒提。

根據中共外交部表示，拜登與習近平見面時，雙方就中美關係和其他共同關心的重大問題坦誠、深入地交換了意見。這是外交語言，「坦誠」的意思是彼此有分歧，但是大家開誠布公講出來。

拜登在美僑商會次日舉行的餐會上則表示，在與習近平的會晤中，對中國大陸突然宣布東海航空識別區，引發地區緊張，「很直率地表達美國的立場與期待」；但是同時，美方也不願意與中國的關係鬧僵，所以依然強調要「努力推進中美新型大國關係建設」。

美國基本上會挺日本，這是無庸置疑的。去年黃岩島爭議，美國沒有支持菲律賓的主權主張，亞太國家私下都在議論，重返亞洲的美國，面對中國不夠強硬。這次在防空識別區的問題上，如果華盛頓還是悶不作聲，大家會擔心美國一退再退。但畢竟這次的爭端主角之一是日本，是美國在亞太最忠實的盟友。近日在美國默許下，安倍要修改憲法，成立國家安全會議，擴大集體自衛權解釋。國際上甚至認為，美國現在國防預算緊縮，要靠日本，才能遵守重返亞洲、捍衛盟友的承諾。

但是美國也不能完全站在日本這邊。日本的過度右傾，不是沒有引發反彈的，南韓與中國大陸就對日本的軍國主義復興，擔心不已，甚至認為美國是在「縱放」（unleash ）日本這條凶犬。

日本對釣魚台列嶼的主權主張，更是蠻橫地強調主權不容他人置喙，甚至去年宣布收歸國有，也是希望藉此包括在美日安保的適用範圍中。可是美國對此立場則很清楚，尊重日本的行政權，但是對主權爭議不持立場；換句話說，美國並未表示支持日本的釣魚台主權。

所以外界觀察到，拜登抵達日本後，安倍政府期待他會表態力挺，但是從三日的日美記者會看來，雙方態度有落差。首先，美國對中國大陸的識別區宣布，表示嚴重關切，但並不堅持中國要撤回，這讓安倍也只有改變主張；其次，美國航空公司與日本航空公司對提交飛航計畫依然不同調，日本也沒辦法強求美國改變。

國際政治是現實的。坦率地說，美國這番態度不是基於公義或國際法，很大一部分是顧忌大陸的反應。華盛頓深知，中國民族情緒的力量強大，任何中國領導人只能順勢而行，無法逆勢操作，美國要想與中國大陸發展新型大國關係，就不能傷害到中國人民的感情。

由此也可看出，目前美國亞太政策的重心是在美中關係，而美中關係的主調還是新型大國關係。十一月二十日國安顧問萊斯在首場亞太政策演說中強調，將努力使新型大國關係發揮作用；而拜登也說，中美兩個大國新型關係的發展，取決於雙方信任和對對方的動機保持樂觀。中國大陸外交部更總結拜登與習近平會談達成的最重要共識是，雙方要努力推進中美新型大國關係建設。

所謂「新型大國關係」，從日本與亞太各國、包括台灣看起來，就是G2的權力結構。亞太秩序由美中決定，這不是日本所願意見到的，而這也與既定的「美國重返亞洲，力抗中國」路線相左，其中矛盾，美國自己也難以解釋，卻是政治現實之必然。

東海現在風雲變幻莫測，提出「中國夢」的習近平，碰上的是想要扭轉日本成為正常化國家的安倍晉三，美國在期間看似左右逢源，兩方都要爭取，但是能夠迴旋的空間卻越來越小，這是局勢凶險之處。