Cold-Blooded Killers: Islamic State a Threat to Global Security

Cold-Blooded Killers: Islamic State a Threat to Global Security
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 9, 2014

Summary: Obama administration military strategy specifies no ground troops. But two U.S. reporters were executed. Will Obama's policies change? That is worth watching. The Islamic State is not a direct threat to Islamic countries in East Asia, or to the Taiwan Region. But once the United States shifts the focus of its diplomacy, other policies will require adjustment. Its Pivot to Asia and confrontation with Mainland China, and its Ukrainian policy and confrontation with Russia, are likely to be diluted or compromised. This warrants our close attention.

Full Text Below:

The recently founded Islamic State (IS) has executed two American reporters in a row. The cold-blooded beheadings were performed by masked holy warriors with British accents. The executions were deliberately uploaded to the Internet, touching raw nerves in Western countries. These newly formed Islamic terrorist organizations are unpredictable in their appearance and character. They slaughter infidels and foreigners, enjoy abundant funding, and are running amok.

To say that the Islamic State has become the biggest threat to Middle East and even the world, is no exaggeration. It has conquered territories in Iraq and Syria. It has slaughtered hundreds of locals. It has kidnapped outsiders for ransom, beheaded them, then put them on public display. Worse still, it has absorbed holy warriors from dozens of different countries that are sympathetic to Islam. It has trained them to incite incidents and engage in combat. Western countries fear that once these holy warriors return home, they will engage in terrorist activities.

Recently, 50 British holy warriors who regretted their decision to join the Islamic State sought to return to the UK. But the British government has expressed suspicions about their motives, and so far has not given its consent. The United States is trying to prevent holy warriors from returning home to the US. They fear they will bring terrorism home with them. Meanwhile Denmark is instituting a "recovery plan" to help young holy warriors who lost their way reintegrate into society. A number of German Islamic holy warriors who planned to desert IS were branded as traitors and put to death.

Compared to the Ukraine crisis or Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the emergence of the Islamic State has given President Barack Obama even bigger headaches. When Obama recently spoke on the problem of IS, he admitted he had no countermeasures. This led to a public outcry. But he was telling the truth. The United States and its allies hope to destroy the Islamic State. But the task will be an arduous and lengthy one.

One. The various nations cannot and will not garrison troops in the area. Without ground troops raiding and invading, they cannot eliminate the Islamic State. Currently the United States has ordered only air strikes. On the battlefields of Iraq, it has provided ground support to Kurdish forces. On the battlefields of Syria, it relies on moderate rebels for support. But these rag-tag troops are poorly trained and poorly equipped. They are only able to score easy victories. They are not a force to be reckoned with.

Two. The Islamic State is transnational in character. The problem in Iraq is linked to the problem in Syria and must be solved concurrently. But the problems in Syria are myriad. America is unwilling to sit back and watch Syria fall to the Islamic State. But if air strikes annihilate Islamic State forces, they also remove a thorn in Assad's side, and help the regime survive. This is not what the United States wants. Nor is it what anti-Assad forces in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want.

Three. Traditional friends and enemies in the Middle East have undergone a shuffle. Thirty years ago, the United States and Iran were at loggerheads. This won the US the support of the Persian Gulf countries. Today, in order to crush the Islamic State, Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has issued a fatwah authorizing military action in Iran and coordination with military commanders. The United States has yet to mention military cooperation with Iran. But according to reports, the two sides discussed the situation in Iraq during nuclear talks. The United States has provided secret assistance to government forces in Syria. It passed intelligence to the Syrian government through Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, enabling the Syrian Army to strike specific targets in the Islamic State.

During a recent NATO summit, Obama invited nine countries to form a "core alliance" to fight IS. US Secretary of State John Kerry did not mince words. He said this would be a lengthy struggle. Maybe one year, two years, or three years. The number of foreign holy warriors in the Islamic State now numbers seven to eight thousand. If they return home, they could bring their terrorist activities back home.

The executioner of the two American reporters had a British accent. Audiences around the world shuddered. An estimated 500 British citizens are participatibng the Islamic State Jihad. Britain wants to send special forces to arrest them. But that is easier said than done. Airlines have been ordered not to allow people on the blacklist board. But for terrorists determined to attack, such barriers are easy to circumvent. The number of United States citizens participating in the Jihad is estimated at a mere 100 people. But the United States is the global hegemon. Therefore it can easily become the object of blame. It is much more likely to be targeted.

With strong financial backing, and bold, callous moves, the Islamic State has become the new world leader of terrorism. From Yemen to Africa, terrorist organizations have announced the establishment of Caliphates of the Islamic State. Spiritual calls to arms, plus Internet propaganda, have enabled the Islamic State to become the most threatening terrorist group to the West since Al-Qaeda. 

Obama administration military strategy specifies no ground troops. But two U.S. reporters were executed. Will Obama's policies change? That is worth watching. The Islamic State is not a direct threat to Islamic countries in East Asia, or to the Taiwan Region. But once the United States shifts the focus of its diplomacy, other policies will require adjustment. Its Pivot to Asia and confrontation with Mainland China, and its Ukrainian policy and confrontation with Russia, are likely to be diluted or compromised. This warrants our close attention.

冷酷殺手：伊斯蘭國是全球安全威脅
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.09.10 03:17 am

剛建國不久的「伊斯蘭國」（ＩＳ）最近連續處決兩名美國記者，冷酷的斬首手法，由操著英國口音的蒙面聖戰士執行，刻意透過網路放送，挑起了西方國家的敏感神經。這個新崛起的伊斯蘭恐怖組織，擁有外界無法預測的面貌和性格，一路屠殺異教徒及外國人，憑著豐厚的資金，橫行無阻。

說伊斯蘭國已成為中東地區、乃至全球最大的威脅，並不誇張。它不僅在伊拉克、敘利亞之間攻城掠地，動輒殺戮當地民眾，更將各路外來者當成綁票、勒贖、殺頭示眾的對象。尤有甚者，這個組織吸收了來自數十個不同國家同情伊斯蘭的「聖戰士」，在當地接受訓練，從事戰鬥；西方國家擔心，這些聖戰士一旦返國，會把恐怖活動帶回本土。

最近有五十名英國「聖戰士」因後悔參加「伊斯蘭國」，向英國申請返國；但英國對此頗表疑慮，並未立即同意。美國方面，則是設法攔阻聖戰士返國，唯恐他們將恐怖任務帶回本土。與此同時，丹麥則計畫透過帶有精神治療性質的「康復計畫」，幫助一時失足的年輕聖戰士重返社會。但是，也有德國的伊斯蘭聖戰士因意圖落跑，被ＩＳ當成叛徒處死。

比起烏克蘭危機或以巴衝突，伊斯蘭國的難題確實更讓美國總統歐巴馬頭痛。歐巴馬日前談論到ＩＳ問題時，坦言尚無因應戰略，引發輿論譁然；但他說的是事實，美國和盟國要想剿滅伊斯蘭國，任務是艱鉅而漫長的。

首先，各國派不出、也不肯派部隊進駐當地，但若無地面部隊掃蕩及堅壁清野，便無法徹底消滅伊斯蘭國。目前美國只能派軍空襲，在伊拉克戰場，地面支援以庫德族部隊為主；在敘利亞戰場，則靠溫和派叛軍對抗。然而，這些雜牌部隊訓練裝備都差，只能打順手戰，卻難成大事。

其次，由於伊斯蘭國是跨國界的，伊拉克問題必須要連結敘利亞問題一併解決。但是，敘利亞問題矛盾重重：美國不願意坐視伊斯蘭國攻陷敘利亞，但空襲打擊或殲滅了伊斯蘭國力量，等於替阿塞德去掉心腹大患，使其政權延續，這並非美國所樂見，也非反阿塞德的沙烏地與阿聯大公國所樂見。

第三，是中東傳統友敵的解構。卅年來，美國和伊朗一直敵對，藉此爭取波灣國家的支持；如今，為了殲滅伊斯蘭國，伊朗大教主哈梅尼發布敕令，授權伊朗指揮官與美軍協調軍事行動。儘管美方強調並未與伊朗進行任何軍事合作，但據報導，在美伊限核談判的空檔，雙方的確討論了伊拉克情勢，甚至傳出美國正秘密協助敘利亞政府軍，間接透過德國聯邦情報局傳遞情資，讓敘利亞政府軍擊中伊斯蘭國的特殊目標。

歐巴馬最近在北約峰會邀請九國組成「核心同盟」，共同對抗ＩＳ，但是美國務卿柯瑞不諱言，這是需要長時間的努力，「可能需要一年，二年或是三年。」尤其，伊斯蘭國的外籍聖戰士人數高達七、八千人；如果他們返國，都可能把恐怖活動帶回本土。

處決兩名美國記者的劊子手，操英國口音，讓全球觀眾不寒而慄。據估計，參加伊斯蘭國聖戰的英國公民達五百多人，英國之前要派特種部隊將他們緝捕歸案，但這談何容易？航空公司奉令不准讓黑名單上的人登機，但對存心攻擊的恐怖份子而言，這些障礙並不難繞過。美國參加「聖戰」的人數估計只有一百多人，但因為美國是全球霸權，容易成為歸罪的對象，成為攻擊目標的機會反而更大。

藉著雄厚的財力和大膽、冷酷的行動，伊斯蘭國如今已成為全球恐怖團體的新領袖。從葉門到非洲，都有恐怖組織宣布仿效伊斯蘭國成立哈里發國，精神上的號召，加上網路的宣傳，讓伊斯蘭國成為繼蓋達組織之後對西方最具威脅的恐怖團體。

歐巴馬政府目前考慮的所有出兵策略，都是以不派遣地面部隊為前提；但在兩名美國記者遭處決後，歐巴馬的政策會不會改變，值得觀察。儘管伊斯蘭國不致直接威脅東亞或台灣，但美國外交的重心一旦轉移，所有政策就會隨之調整，包括與中國對抗的「重返亞太」或與俄羅斯對抗的「烏克蘭政策」都可能淡化或妥協。這點，是值得我們注意的關鍵。