Nine in One Elections: A Blue Camp Debacle?

Nine in One Elections: A Blue Camp Debacle?
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 4, 2014

Summary: Tomorrow is the registration deadline for the Nine in One Elections. The main contenders have largely been decided. The ruling and opposition parties face split tickets in several counties and municipalities. They have yet to finish regrouping. Especially blue camp comrades, who are loggerheads with each other in several counties and municipalities. Add to this the top priority Five Cities Mayoral Elections. Except in New Taipei City, the blue camp trails. This has inspired commentators to predict that the year end Nine in One Elections could be a blue camp rout. Several popular TV talk show hosts are predicting the same outcome. In the face of these dire predictions, all we have to say is, wait and see.

Full Text Below:

Tomorrow is the registration deadline for the Nine in One Elections. The main contenders have largely been decided. The ruling and opposition parties face split tickets in several counties and municipalities. They have yet to finish regrouping. Especially blue camp comrades, who are loggerheads with each other in several counties and municipalities. Add to this the top priority Five Cities Mayoral Elections. Except in New Taipei City, the blue camp trails. This has inspired commentators to predict that the year end Nine in One Elections could be a blue camp rout. Several popular TV talk show hosts are predicting the same outcome. In the face of these dire predictions, all we have to say is, wait and see.

Some think the blue camp will be humiliated in the Nine in One Elections. Some of these are biased green camp sympathizers. But others are basing their predictions on current reality and historical experience.

Consider the current political atmosphere. Anyone with any sense can see that it is detrimental to the blue camp. President Ma's approval ratings are low. The turnover of political appointees is high. Policy implementation takes one step forward and two steps back. Several counties and municipalities have split tickets. Under the circumstances a small loss would count as a win. But will this situation lead a total debacle? It is probably too early to say.

Many people cite historical experience. They think a major debacle will befall the blue camp in this year's Nine in One Elections. They base this on the results of two previous county and municipal elections.

The first was the 1996 county and municipal elections. The KMT faced charges of black gold corruption. Factionalism divided the party from within. That year's election was a debacle. The ruling Kuomintang won only counties and municipalities in the mountain regions and outer islands. The election result was too embarrassing for words. This led to a situation in which local opposition governments besieged the ruling party in the nation's capital. It also led indirectly to the first ruling party change in 2000.

The second was the 2005 county and municipal elections. That year the ruling Democratic Progressive Party was mired in cross-Strait tensions. It refused to alter its policies. Embarrassing scandals erupted one after another. Ma Ying-jeou led the blue camp from the capital city. A coat tails effect won all of northern and central Taiwan. The DPP barely held on in southern Taiwan. This "watermelon effect," indirectly contributed to the second change in ruling parties in 2008.

This has happened twice in history. Many commentators think therefore that the year end election may replicate the experience of 1997 and 2005. They think the blue camp will be humiliated in the county and municipal elections of 2014, and will face a third ruling party change in 2016. Set aside those with subjective expectations for the moment. Those who predict a blue camp debacle can indeed cite these two elections to support their argument.

Before concluding that this scenario will play out again however, one must first clarify several issues. One. History has norms, but it also has empirical rules. Nothing in history is preordained. In other words, can the experience of 1997 and 2005 be applied directly to 2014? That is debatable. Two. The biggest and most controversial issue is whether Taiwan has undergone a tectonic shift in public sentiment. Three. Have the ruling and opposition parties' public image and political momentum significantly improved or deteriorated?

Examine these problems one by one, and one may reach a more balanced conclusion. One cannot simply take the experience of 1997 and 2005 and apply them directly to this election.

The situation this year is unfavorable for the blue camp. But the situation cannot possibly be worse than it was in 1997, when the blue camp was divided by factionalism. Nor is it as bad as it was in 2005, when a DPP leadership scandal touched off a chain reaction. Control of the capital during these two elections was in the hands of the opposition. This gave them an advantage when choosing a leader. That is why no matter how hard Tsai Ing-wen might try, she cannot benefit from the coat tails effect enjoyed back then by Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou. On the contrary, the blue camp's Eric Chu may be the one who can benefit from this effect.

Has there been a tectonic shift in public sentiment?  Some say the blue camp has been weakened, and the green camp strengthened. But recent data by major pollsters indicate a situation that is constantly fluctuating, but no tectonic change in public sentiment. In other words, blue and green camp supporters may have say that they have reversed their positions, overtly or covertly. But that is a long way from a tectonic shift in voter sentiment.

The same is true for the parties' public image and political momentum. As we have hinted at before, both the ruling and opposition parties have performed poorly. Blue camp momentum has not increased. But the green camp has not benefitted from blue camp weakness. To say that this year will be a replay of 1997 or 2005 is either emotionalism or blind optimism.

Given internal and external pressures, the blue camp's prospects in this year's Nine in One Elections are not good. But will the green camp come on like gangbusters? That is probably an exaggeration.

社論－九合一選舉藍營會崩盤嗎？
2014年09月04日 04:10
本報訊

九合一選舉登記明天就要截止，主要參選人大致已經確定，幾個朝野政黨內部面臨分裂的縣市，依舊沒有完成最後的整合，特別是藍營在多個縣市陷入同志相煎的窘境，加上重中之重的五都市長選舉，除新北市外，其餘都呈現落後態勢，這就難免讓不少論者預卜，今年底的九合一選舉不排除會出現藍營大崩盤的局面，相關論調在不少電視談話節目相當流行。面對這種預卜，我們的評論是：靜觀其變吧！

認為藍營會在九合一選舉出現大崩盤的論調，除去部分是基於挺綠營者的主觀期待外，也有部分是緣於對現實形勢的判斷以及相關的歷史經驗。

衡諸當前的政治大氛圍，大概任何人憑常識都可以判斷是對藍營不利，從馬總統支持率低落，政務官頻頻出包下台，政策執行進一步退兩步，再加上多個縣市參選人還鬧分裂，這種局面不諱言說，能少輸就是贏了！但是不是這樣就會出現全面崩盤的態勢呢？可能論斷還是太早。

不少人循歷史經驗，判斷藍營會在今年的九合一出現大崩盤，根據是縣市長選舉史上兩次重要結果。

一次是1997年的縣市選舉，那時節的國民黨面臨外有黑金標籤，內有流派分裂的困局，導致當年選舉結果全面崩盤，執政的國民黨最後勝選的縣市，被難堪的形容只剩下後山與外島，這種局面自然形成地方包圍中央之勢，也間接導致了2000年第一次的政黨輪替。

第二次的歷史經驗則是2005年的縣市長選舉，那一年在中央執政的民進黨同樣陷入兩岸緊張、政策不修、外加弊案連連的不利窘境，藍營則在馬英九掌握首都執政權之便，以母雞帶小雞的效應下，一舉拿下整個北台灣與中台灣，民進黨只能勉強守住南台灣，這種西瓜效應也間接促成了2008年的二次政黨輪替。

就因為有了兩次近似的歷史經驗，才會讓許多論者推估，今年年底的這場選舉，是否會複製1997年與2005年的經驗，2014年先出現藍營在縣市長選舉全面崩盤的局面，再在2016年促成第三次的政黨輪替。拋開若干人的主觀預期不論，許多判斷藍營將大輸的論調，確實會以這兩次選舉的結果，做為主要支持的論據。

在判斷這種情況究竟會不會發生前，恐怕得先弄清楚幾件事：首先，歷史或許有其常態的規律，但再有經驗基礎的規律，也不會成為歷史命定的公式，換言之，1997年與2005年的歷史經驗，能否全盤移植到2014年，可討論的空間非常大；其次，同樣也是當前論者爭議最多的謎題，即當下的台灣是否已出現大規模的民意板塊挪移？第三，當前朝野政黨的形象與氣勢，是否已出現顯著的消長趨勢？

逐一檢視上述問題，或許可以讓我們用更冷靜而持平的角度，去觀察這場選舉。值得注意的是，要複製1997年與2005年的歷史經驗，並不那麼容易。

沒錯，今年各項情況都不利於藍營，但是情況再糟，也並未出現如1997年藍營流派分裂傾軋的情形，也沒有出現如2005年，民進黨陷入領導階層弊案連環爆的局面，再加上這兩場選舉首都執政權均為在野黨領袖所掌握，擁有領導調度上優勢，這亦是為何蔡英文再怎麼辛苦，也無法形成當年陳水扁或馬英九所擁有的母雞帶小雞的效應，相對的反而是藍營的朱立倫還可以發揮這種影響力。

談到民意板塊的部分，雖說持藍消綠長論調的論者一直存在，但是根據最近若干大型民調的數據顯示，隨時勢變動出現間歇的升降是有的，但並沒有出現板塊大規模移動的狀況，換言之，或許藍綠支持者在顯性與隱性的表態上，出現若干位置對調的現象，但距離大規模的板塊挪移，恐怕還有一段差距。

同樣的在政黨氣勢與形象上，正如我們早先所提示過的，截至目前為止，朝野兩黨的表現其實都不佳，藍營氣勢固然拉不起來，綠營也未出現可「取而代之」的氣勢。若要說今年已經出現如1997年或2005年的景況，若非太過激情就是盲目樂觀。

或許可以這麼說，在內外相煎的情況下，藍營在今年九合一的選舉結果，肯定不會好看，但若說綠營會形成秋風掃落葉之勢，大概也不至於！