Can Tsai Ing-wen Replicate The Ko Wen-je Model?

Can Tsai Ing-wen Replicate The Ko Wen-je Model?
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 20, 2015

Executive Summary: Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je recently visited Shanghai, to attend the Twin Cities Forum. He has since returned to Taipei without incident. This deep green politician, who succeeded blue camp Mayor Hau Lung-bin, has now successfully maintained cross-Strait exchanges between these two cities. He has introduced an innovation to the status quo, and lived up to public expectations. From the central to local level, changes in the ruling party are being normalized. The Ko Wen-je model offers a non-blue mode for maintaining relations between Taiwan and the Mainland. Ko Wen-je has blazed a new trail for cross-Strait interaction.

Full Text Below:

Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je recently visited Shanghai, to attend the Twin Cities Forum. He has since returned to Taipei without incident. This deep green politician, who succeeded blue camp Mayor Hau Lung-bin, has now successfully maintained cross-Strait exchanges between these two cities. He has introduced an innovation to the status quo, and lived up to public expectations. From the central to local level, changes in the ruling party are being normalized. The Ko Wen-je model offers a non-blue mode for maintaining relations between Taiwan and the Mainland. Ko Wen-je has blazed a new trail for cross-Strait interaction.

The year 2000 was the first time the ruling party of the ROC was replaced. Cross-Strait relations were in turmoil. Recently the deep green Ko Wen-je took office in Taipei City.  During the election, many predicted that city to city exchanges between Shanghai and Taipei would be terminated. But this deep green mayor set aside reunification vs. independence battles. He decided to communicate with the other side in a rational manner. He committed himself to the maintenance of benign interactions. After several rounds of negotiation, compromises were reached, and the Twin Cities Forum successfully reconvened. The three day visit to Shanghai by “enfant terrible” Mayor Ko, went off without a hitch. Mainland organizers were deeply relieved. The visit built trust with the Mainland, and will have a positive impact on future relations. It will become a model for positive green camp interaction with the Mainland.

Zhou Zhihuai, Head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Taiwan, analyzed the Ko Wen-je model. He thinks several factors were involved. First, there was the desire to break new ground in cross-Strait relations. Ko Wen-je began with a negative attitude. He questioned the 1992 Consensus. He denounced what he termed Two Countries, One System. As a result the Mainland lambasted him. But his willingness to continue the Twin Cities Forum and break new ground on cross-Strait relations, led to his "New Perspectives for 2015". He said “One China is not a problem”. He emphasized the importance of the existing political framework. He gained the Mainland's understanding. Secondly, the two sides were willing to communicate.  They did not give up in the face of difficulties. They were willing to adapt. Zhou Zhihuai affirmed Ko Wen-je's flexibility and pragmatism. Meanwhile Ko said, "The Chinese Communists are not our rivals, but our customers". His attitude toward the Chinese Communist Party was positive. Ke said, "Whether we like it or not, [Mainland] China is a problem that must be faced". Clearly he is highly pragmatic. Ko Wen-je displayed flexibility and pragmatism. He was greeted with flexibility and pragmatism from the Mainland in return.

Third, continued expressions of goodwill. Zhou Zhihuai said Ko Wen-je established a Mainland Affairs Committee. During the first group meeting of the subcommittee on Mainland affairs, Ko avoided mention of the two-states theory, of Taiwan independence, and any criticism of the CCP. Ko spoke to the Mainland media twice. He expressed understanding and respect for the 1992 Consensus. He said relations with the Mainland were not international relations. During the Twin Cities Forum, Ko Wen-je reiterated that “The two sides are one family”. He said “the two sides have a political foundation by which they can promote cross-Strait exchanges, peaceful cross-Strait relations, and the interests of people on both sides". He said, "As long as people on both sides approve, I will continue doing this. As long as this is conducive to cross-Strait peace, I will not retreat". These were all expressions of goodwill.

To sum up, the Ko Wen-je model includes three elements: Intent, the willingness to adapt, and goodwill. Whether local or central, all three elements are indispensable to green camp interaction or dialogue with the other side. If the green camp persists in fearing the Mainland, opposing the Mainland, and hating the Mainland. If it is unwilling to break new ground on cross-Strait relations, then it will not be able to take the Ko Wen-je road. If it is unwilling to adapt, it cannot replicate the Ko Wen-je model. Tsai Ing-wen is a clear example. She has reiterated her desire to maintain the status quo, promote cross-Strait exchanges, and hold constructive dialogue. Yet she refuses to change her position on Taiwan independence. She foolishly imagines that as long as she wins the presidential election, the Mainland will change to accommodate the DPP.

The green camp may wish to communicate and adapt. But if its fails to demonstrate goodwill, the Ko Wen-je model will fail. Ko Wen-je established a Mainland Affairs Committee. He declared that cross-Strait exchanges are not international exchanges. Is Tsai Ing-wen willing to change the name of the DPP's "China Affairs Committee" to the "Mainland Affairs Committee"? Is she willing to declare that cross-Strait relations are not international relations?

Is the Ko Wen-je model is a universal model that can be replicated? That remains to be seen. But the Twin Cities Forum was a success, and is merely the beginning of Mainland interaction with Ko Wen-je. Subsequent interactions will require continued effort and the establishment of long term trust. For Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP county chiefs and city mayors, the Ko Wen-je model's three elements should not be seen as a standard, but as a direction. In the future the Mainland will surelyimpose even stricter requirements.

The Twin Cities Forum entailed people taking the initiative and governments providing support. This principle is important, and should provide the DPP with inspiration. People blazing the way has never been a problem. But cross-Strait exchanges ultimately require government support. This includes visits between relatives, trade, investment, intermarriage, tourism, and academic certification. Which one of them was not an example of people stepping on the gas, while government applied the brakes? The people must bypass government restrictions. When the government finds itself unable to apply the brakes, it is forced to liberalize and move forward. This was the case even during the Ma era. The public rushed forward even as government constraints abounded. For example, on coastal wind power projects the private sector hired Mainland work boats. Green camp Sinophobes went online and demanded government action. But the government refused to stand in the peoples' way.

People taking the initiative and governments providing support is a forward-looking process. The authorites on both sides should provide just this kind of support. Take for example the peace agreement. The authorities find it difficult to negotiate. Cross-Strait civilian forums or seminars can pave the way. The government should not stop them, but encourage and support them. It can wait until the public is no longer afraid to discuss a peace agreement, then take over.

社論－蔡英文能複製柯文哲模式嗎？
2015年08月20日 04:10 主筆室

台北市長柯文哲到上海參加雙城論壇，「零意外」返台，他以深綠背景出身的政治人物，從藍營郝龍斌前市長手上，成功維繫了兩岸城市交流關係，在現狀基礎上做出創新，可謂不負眾望。從中央到地方，政黨輪替將常態化，柯文哲模式提供了非藍人士當政後，與大陸維持互動關係的思考方向。可以說，柯文哲模式為兩岸互動關係走出新路。

2000年首次政黨輪替，兩岸關係陷入動盪，這次台北市政權輪替，以柯文哲選舉期間的「深綠」言論，許多人判斷滬台城市交流關係勢必中斷，但這位「深綠市長」以破除「統獨惡鬥」為職志，決心與對岸理性對話，戮力維持良性互動。經過多次折衝妥協，最後終於成功延續舉辦雙城論壇。上海3天行程，有「白目」之稱的柯市長，謹言慎行「零意外」表現，讓大陸主辦方深深鬆了口氣，相信對他與大陸互信關係的累積，會產生非常大的助益，也將成為綠營人士與對岸建立良性互動及對話關係的典範。

中國社科院台灣研究所所長周志懷分析柯文哲模式，認為有幾個要素。首先，有意願突破兩岸關係。柯文哲原本否定、質疑九二共識，又提出兩國一制，因而遭對岸炮轟。但他有意願延續雙城論壇、有意願突破兩岸關係，提出「一五新觀點」，說一個中國不是問題，強調既有政治基礎，用心得到大陸的理解。其次，雙方願意溝通，遇到困難不放棄，願意調整。周志懷肯定柯文哲的彈性與務實，柯曾說「共產黨不是對手，而是客戶」，對共產黨的態度還是肯定的，柯也說過「不論喜不喜歡，中國是一個必須面對的問題。」可見很務實。柯文哲表現出彈性與務實，大陸也以彈性與務實回報。

第三，不斷釋放善意。周志懷說，柯文哲成立大陸事務小組，他在第一次大陸事務小組會議上提到說，不提兩國論，不說台獨，不批中共。柯接受大陸媒體兩次聯訪，表達了解和尊重九二共識，與大陸的交流不是國與國的交流。柯文哲在雙城論壇上一再講「兩岸一家親」、「在雙方既有的政治基礎上，促進兩岸的交流，推動兩岸關係和平發展，謀求兩岸人民最大的利益。」也說「只要有利兩岸人民，我都會積極去做，只要有利於兩岸的和平發展，我都不會拒絕。」這些都是善意的表現。

歸納起來，柯文哲模式有3要素：有意願、溝通調整、釋放善意。未來無論地方或中央，綠營人士想和對岸維持交流互動或打開對話大門，3要素缺一不可。若繼續以恐中、反中、仇中心態對待大陸，沒有意願突破兩岸關係，那就不可能走柯文哲的路。若有意願但不溝通調整，像蔡英文一再表達願意維持現狀，願意推動兩岸建設性交流與對話，但卻不願調整其台獨立場，反而認為只要選贏，大陸就會向民進黨調整，就不可能複製柯文哲模式。

有意願、能溝通調整，但若未能不斷釋放善意，柯文哲模式也會功虧一簣。柯文哲成立大陸事務小組，表態兩岸交流不是國與國的交流，蔡英文做得到把民進黨的「中國事務部」更名為「大陸事務部」，願意表態兩岸關係不是國與國的關係嗎？

柯文哲模式是否具有普遍性或可複製，當然有待觀察，而且這次雙城論壇成功舉辦，只是柯文哲和大陸互動的開始，後續需要繼續努力，不斷累積互信，互動關係才可長可久。對蔡英文和民進黨縣市首長而言，柯文哲模式3要素應該不是標準，而是方向，日後大陸會對他們提出強度更高的要求。

雙城論壇提出「民間先行、政府支持」共識，是非常重要的原則性宣示，對民進黨應有所啟發。長期以來，「民間先行」不是問題，但維繫兩岸交流的重心還是要靠「政府支持」，過去從探親、通商、投資、通婚、觀光、學歷認證等，哪項不是「民間先行」、「政府煞車」？民間有需要先偷跑，政府煞車擋不住了，才被迫開放，政府都是被逼著往前走。即使馬政府時代，民間先行，政府掣肘仍比比皆是，例如，沿海建風力發電，民間租用大陸工作船，仇中人士動輒上綱國家安全予以作梗，卻未見「政府支持」。

「民間先行、政府支持」共識，是前瞻的創舉，兩岸當局都應重視支持。例如，和平協議，官方現在不好協商，兩岸民間可以論壇或研討會等方式先多討論，政府不要作梗，而要鼓勵支持，等民間不再害怕討論和平協議了，政府就可以接手。(中國時報)