Tsai Ing-wen's Five Reforms Missing Only Self-Reform

Tsai Ing-wen's Five Reforms Missing Only Self-Reform
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 21, 2015

Executive Summary: The presidential election has reached the stage where the candidates must answer the question, “Where's the beef?” DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen seized the initiative and proposed "Five Reforms". These reforms include "generational justice", "improved government efficiency," "legislative reform", "transitional justice", and "an end to partisan bickering". Tsai Ing-wen characterized them as "new politics". The first three reforms are important. But her road map and direction are unclear. The last two reforms are Tsai Ing-wen's “democratic civil war” tactics, warmed over following her defeat in 2012.

Full Text Below:

The presidential election has reached the stage where the candidates must answer the question, “Where's the beef?” DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen seized the initiative and proposed "Five Reforms". These reforms include "generational justice", "improved government efficiency," "legislative reform", "transitional justice", and "an end to partisan bickering". Tsai Ing-wen characterized them as "new politics". The first three reforms are important. But her road map and direction are unclear. The last two reforms are Tsai Ing-wen's “democratic civil war” tactics, warmed over following her defeat in 2012.

Substantively speaking, the economic data is worrisome. Exports have declined for six straight months. Second-quarter GDP growth fell 0.64%, well below the 3.05% originally forecast. The Comptroller General's Office lowered this year's economic growth forecast to 1.56%, substantially lower than the 1.72% forecast issued in May. A 3% growth rate is not assured. Even 2% is not assured. Economists agree that declines in Mainland and global economic growth are a factor. But structural factors have made Taiwan's economy far worse. Not only does Taiwan's GDP growth rate trail those of the other Asian tigers, it even trails those of the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries.

Taiwan's economic problems are severe. Yet Tsai Ing-wen's Five Reforms fail to even mention the economy. Is this an indication of Tsai Ing-wen's congenital contempt for economic development? Or does Tsai Ing-wen know her weaknesses only too well? Does she know that economics is the DPP's Achilles Heel? Is that why she has deliberately avoided all discussion of it?

Tsai Ing-wen has spun her “new politics” as “reform”. Political reform is important. But without a solid economic foundation, political harmony is impossible. Take "generational justice" for example, the first of Tsai Ing-wen's Five Reforms. According to her detailed description, it is subdivided into two categories, "checks" and "slogans".

First take checks. Tsai Ing-wen advocates social housing, affordable high-quality long-term elderly care and child care. Every politician can write social welfare checks such as these. But social welfare checks require sound finances, and sound finances require a prosperous economy.

Now take slogans. Tsai Ing-wen has promised to remove barriers to youth employment and create an environment favorable to new industries. The question is “How?” To remove barriers to youth employment and create an environment favorable to new industries, one must grow the economy. Growing the economy is not rubbing Aladdin's Lamp, or summoning the Winged Monkeys in the Wizard of Oz with a Golden Cap. Wealth does not fall from the skies like rain. One must have a farsighed and viable economic strategy. Where is the DPP's economic statecraft? The DPP has just turned in a blank test paper on economics. How can it even begin to talk about "implementing generational justice"?

Tsai Ing-wen turned in a blank test paper on economics. The DPP lacks confidence in its ability to grow the economy. Taiwan has a trade-oriented economy. To develop its economy, Taiwan must remain open to trade. Since the KMT moved to Taiwan, its economic policies have gone from import substitution to export expansion, and from there on to economic internationalization and liberalization. The KMT took the road of openness. It laid a solid foundation for Taiwan's economic miracle. But its road of openness ran counter to the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party's fundamental policies. The DPP's most serious offense has been to shroud its Closed Door Policy in the guise of Nativism. Along with social movements and student groups, it has obstructed the STA, the MTA, and the FEPZ. Its moves succeeded in sabotaging the KMT's economic achievements. But they simultaneously choked off Taiwan's already constricted economic lifeline.

Taiwan lacks natural resources. A stable energy supply is essential for Taiwan's economic development. The DPP opposes nuclear energy and the use of bituminous coal for power generation. It has placed its hopes on “renewable energy”, ignoring the fact that their limited capacity and exorbitant cost cannot meet overall demand. This pandering to populism has led to the absurdity of expecting power while refusing power plants. This summer, Taiwan's electric power equipment carrying capacity will fall to a mere 5 to 10%. The power supply situation is critical. Experts have repeatedly warned that a power crisis is imminent. It is not a matter of whether, but when.

Without a stable power supply, how can one develop the economy? In recent years, the DPP has created an anti-business climate in order to divide the public along class lines and reap the political dividends. This too, has cast a shadow over economic development.

Drifting sands lack form. Chewed wax lacks flavor. The reforms advocated by Tsai Ing-wen may sound pretty. But without the economy supplying water and cement, they will remain windblown sands. Without the economy supplying flavors, a dish labeled “reform” will remain wax models one may look at but cannot eat.

Tsai Ing-wen should give priority not to her Five Reforms, but to “One About Face” and a “Sixth Reform". The One About Face is to emphasize economics and deemphasize politics. Tsai Ing-wen should clear her head. During the election, she should talk less about politics and more about our economic survival. Exports have declined for the past 6 months. The GDP may fall below 2%. Tell the people of Taiwan how Tsai Ing-wen intends to lead Taiwan out of its economic quagmire?

The "Sixth Reform" is self-reform. Reform Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP's Closed Door Policy. Reform their habit of writing populist policy checks that bounce. Reform their habit of talking politics while neglecting economics. Unless they change this habit of theirs, talk of reform is utterly beside the point.



社論－蔡英文「五大改革」獨缺自我改革
2015年08月21日 04:10 主筆室

總統大選進入端政策牛肉階段，民進黨參選人蔡英文率先拋出「五大改革」訴求，包括「實踐世代正義」、「改革政府效能」、「啟動國會改革」、「落實轉型正義」及「終結政治惡鬥」，蔡英文說，這是「新政治」的實踐。究其內涵，我們可以說，前三項宣示雖然重要，方向與路線圖卻不明，後兩項則是自2012年蔡英文敗選後，「民主內戰」的最後決戰計畫。

在實質評論其內涵前，我們先檢視令人憂心的經濟數據：出口連續6個月衰退、第二季經濟成長率（GDP）跌至0.64%，遠低於原先預測的3.05%，主計總處大幅下修今年經濟成長率預測至1.56%，比5月預測值大幅下修1.72個百分點，不僅無法保三，連保二都做不到。經濟學家分析原因，多認為景氣驟降固然與大陸及全球經濟成長下滑有關，但結構性因素讓台灣經濟更壞，GDP成長率不但是亞洲四小龍之末，更遠遜菲律賓、印尼、越南等東南亞國家。

台灣經濟問題如此嚴峻，五大改革藍圖裡竟然沒有「經濟」？這是蔡英文DNA輕視經濟發展的重要？還是有自知之明，知道拚經濟是民進黨弱項，故意略而不談想要藏拙呢？

蔡英文標舉新政治做為改革指針，不是說政治改革不重要，但沒有穩固經濟地基的社會，政治是不可能安寧的。就以蔡英文列五大改革之首的「實踐世代正義」來說，依其細部描述，大概分為「支票型」與「口號型」的二類主張。

在支票型主張上，蔡英文要推動社會住宅、建立平價優質的長照與托育，這類社福支票，每個政治人物都會開，但支撐這樣的社福支票，靠的是政府良好的財政，而財政之本，則是繁榮的經濟。

在口號型主張上，蔡英文說要掃除青年就業和創業的障礙，創造就業環境。但我們要問「做法呢」？創造就業環境、掃除創業障礙，得先要有業可就、有業可創，其前提仍是發展經濟。而發展經濟，不是摸一摸阿拉丁神燈，或用金帽召喚綠野仙蹤飛天猴，就會從天下掉下來，必須有一套前瞻、紮實與可行的經濟方略。民進黨的經濟治國方略在哪裡？在經濟考卷上交了白卷，如何奢談「實踐世代正義」？

蔡英文的經濟留白，也反映了民進黨對拚經濟的缺乏自信。台灣是外貿導向的經濟體，要發展經濟就必須持續開放，國民黨自遷台以來，從進口替代到出口擴張，再到經濟國際化與自由化，走的就是開放的道路，也為過去台灣創造的經濟奇蹟打下深厚的基礎；但這條開放之路，卻與民進黨反中、拒中的基本政策相牴觸，民進黨長期以來最受詬病，就是以本土包裝的鎖國思維，結合社運團體與學生團體，封殺服貿、封凍貨貿、封阻自由經濟示範區條例，做法雖然成功，也拖垮了國民黨的政績，但也扼殺了本已陷入困境的台灣經濟一線生機。

台灣天然資源極為缺乏，穩定的能源供應對台灣經濟發展至為關鍵。民進黨反核電又反生煤發電，把電力供應的希望，寄託在不管成本或產能都還遠遠不可能支撐整體需求的「再生能源」。這種討好民粹的做法，把台灣帶向「要電不要廠」的荒謬處境，今年入夏後，台灣的電力備載容多只有5%到10%左右，供電情勢窘迫，專家不斷警告，台灣的限電危機不是會不會來，而是多快會來？

沒有穩定的電力供應，如何全力發展經濟？更不要說，近年來，為了透過畫分階級，獲取貧富對立的「政治紅利」，民進黨不斷助燃反商仇富氛圍，也都為經濟發展添上陰霾。

摶沙不能成形，嚼蠟難有滋味。蔡英文的改革主張縱然華麗，如果沒有經濟為其灌泥聚形，將只是風吹即散的空中飛沙；一盤盤放上餐桌的改革大菜，少了經濟主味，都是可以看不能吃的樣板蠟。

蔡英文應優先要提出的不是「五大改革」，而是「一個翻轉」與「第六改革」。一個翻轉是請不要「重政治，輕經濟」，請轉一下腦袋，接下來的選舉，政治少談一點，如何確保生存發展的經濟戰略多談一點，請告訴台灣人民，面對連6個月出口衰退、GDP不保二的警訊，蔡英文要如何領導台灣走出經濟困局？

「第六改革」是自我改革，改革蔡英文與民進黨的鎖國反中、利用民粹濫開支票、講政治不講經濟慣性，這個慣性不改，談再多改革都是白搭。(中國時報)