Mainland Tourists Transit Taiwan: Red and Green Face Off over the Chessboard

Mainland Tourists Transit Taiwan:
Red and Green Face Off over the Chessboard
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 3, 2016

Executive Summary: Eight mainland tourists have finally been allowed to transit Taoyuan Airport. This is a happy event. Yet Beijing failed to give Taipei prior notification. This failure can be interpreted in many ways. It shows that Tsai Ing-wen coming to power no longer worries Beijing. Beijing is very sure of itself, and unconcerned about whether it must be hard or soft on new regime. Xi Jinping knows full well a new era has begun, one in which cross-Strait relations do not involve the KMT. Red and green now face each other across the chess board. Last year's M503 airline route and smart card format MTPs were previews of coming attractions. Mainland passengers transiting Taiwan means Xi Jinping is ready to make his move.

Full Text Below:

Eight mainland tourists have finally been allowed to transit Taoyuan Airport. This is a happy event. Yet Beijing failed to give Taipei prior notification. This failure can be interpreted in many ways. It shows that Tsai Ing-wen coming to power no longer worries Beijing. Beijing is very sure of itself, and unconcerned about whether it must be hard or soft on new regime.

Mainland tourists transiting through Taiwan is a fruit of the Ma Xi summit. Xi Jinping delinked it from route optimization. Beijing no longer quibbles over the details every step of the way. Once the Gordian Knot was cut, the result was a forgone conclusion. The commencement however, was sparsely attended. It was accompanied by little fanfare. Scant effort was made to spread the word. The Mainland media reported it several days ago, but in a deliberately low-key manner. As a result, the entire affair feels odd.

Beijing's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) recently underwent reorganization. Observers think the Taiwan Affairs Office is under review because of the Taiwan election. The media reported the arrival of Mainland tourists. But the day before, the MAC and the SEF had yet to receive confirmation. As a result speculation ran wild. The Taiwan Affairs Office may deny it, but it definitely appears to have fallen down on the job.

During the recent election, the KMT lost by a landslide. For Beijing, this was more than the decline and fall of the Kuomintang. It was a major setback for its Taiwan Policy. Beijing may complain that the Taiwan Affairs Office did not have its finger on the pulse of Taiwan public opinion. But it at least noticed an anti-Mainland trend within Taiwan, especially among the younger generation. A single spark was all that was necessary to touch off a prairie fire.

Three days after the ROC general election, Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Gong Qinggai was subjected to serious disciplinary action. This too is seen as a sign that past conduct will be reviewed. Xi Jinping obviously could not understand why years of generous concessions to Taiwan failed to benefit the people, and was instead interpreted as comprador collusion. Does a comprador class even exist? If so, what brought it into existence?

Did eight years of generous concessions paradoxically lose the hearts and minds of people on Taiwan? If it did, that is downright embarrassing. Beijing's failure to win over the public on Taiwan, can be attributed to the KMT's inability to make its case. Xi Jinping must now clean up the mess. He must reorganize and transform Taiwan policy. He must cure this incurable disease. He must go head to head with Tsai Ing-wen's so-called "natural independence".

Xi Jinping has few remaining options. He can continue past Beijing's "warm sun strategy". If so, he must correct past mistakes. He must embark upon thorough and painstaking identification of friend and foe, and deal with them one level at a time. On the other hand, he can switch to a "north wind strategy". He can conclude that it is already too late to win over the public on Taiwan. He can conclude that peaceful relations paradoxically lead to disaster, and that taking a hammer to the problem might just wake "natural Taiwan independence" from its pipe dream. Last March Xi Jinping twice mentioned that "the earth will move and the mountains will shake".  During the November Ma Xi summit, he spoke of "terrifying waves". A "north wind strategy" is apparently already an option. If Tsai Ing-wen crosses the line, Xi will did not hesitate to end peaceful relations, and the two sides will sail straight into the storm.

The DPP has officially taken control of the legislature. Xi Jinping nevertheless allowed eight Mainland tourists to transit Taiwan. This was a subtle message. It was a feather gently drifting across the Strait. It was a last gesture of peace and friendship. It wsa an attempt to nudge the DPP in the direction of the 1992 Consensus. It was also an expression of iron determination. Beijing will leave no stone unturned in its fight against separatism.

By allowing Mainland tourists to transit Taiwan, Xi Jinping revealed a third option. This is neither the warm sun strategy, nor the north wind strategy, but a blend of both. For the sake of Taiwan's economy and the livelihood of its people, Beijing wants to retain its warm sun strategy. As a result, Mainland tourists may still come, albeit in reduced numbers. Direct airline flights may continue as before. With transits through Taiwan, they may even increase in number. But the DPP, which refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus, must brace itself against the bitter cold of the north wind, against an avalanche of severed diplomatic relations, aainst mounting international pressure, and even against military intimidation. All of these are on Beijing's menu.

Mainland tourists are transiting Taiwan. Xi Jinping knows full well a new era has begun, one in which cross-Strait relations do not involve the KMT. Red and green now face each other across the chess board. Last year's M503 airline route and smart card format MTPs were previews of coming attractions. Mainland passengers transiting Taiwan means Xi Jinping is ready to make his move.

陸客中轉：紅綠對弈的嚆矢
2016-02-03聯合報

引頸翹望多時，終於有八位陸客來到桃園中轉。這偌大的喜事，北京卻不事前通知台北，其中有多層意涵可解。它也隱約透露，對於蔡英文上台後的兩岸，北京已不再糾結，究竟該寬該嚴、是緊是鬆，想法已十分篤定。

陸客中轉算是「馬習會」的禮物。習近平將它與航路優化脫鉤，不再秤斤論兩、步步為營，癥結一旦解開，成果唾手即得。然而觀察它如今的開場，卻是稀稀落落，既不鑼鼓喧天，也未奔相走告；大陸媒體早幾天雖有零散報導，卻刻意低調，讓整件事情透著蹊蹺。

最近中紀委的整頓，外界也在揣測台辦系統是否因台灣選舉而被檢討。在媒體已報導中轉陸客翌日就要抵台的前夕，我方的陸委會與海基會仍然無法肯定確認訊息，更讓這種揣測甚囂塵上。台辦儘管否認，但對台工作有缺失似乎也是事實。

這次大選國民黨以懸殊差距慘敗，對於北京而言，並不單單只是國民黨今後的潦倒落魄，點滴在心頭的更在於，這是對台政策的重大挫折。北京中央可能會抱怨，國台辦就算不能召喚台灣民意的走向，至少應及早偵知台灣內部尤其年輕世代中彷彿有一股反中燃油，只需星星之火，即可熊熊燎原。

國台辦副主任龔清概在台灣大選後三天即因嚴重違紀被查，也被視為政治燈號，要對過去的作風究責。習近平顯然不能了解，大陸多年的惠台政策，不能春風化雨般地澤被百姓人家，反而一夕間悉數被解讀或化為買辦勾結的利益。若是買辦階級確實存在，孰令致之？

對台八年慨然讓利，若竟換來台灣人心愈發背離的結局，無論如何都是徹頭徹尾的難堪。對台系統經營台灣的不力，應該也在於對國民黨無力自我辯解的軟弱。習近平如今得在這等殘局中力挽狂瀾，他一方面必須整理與改造對台策略，改變過去的沉痾；另一方面，他也必須直接與蔡英文所謂的「天然獨」世代較量。

習近平手中剩下的選項不多。一方面，是繼續以往的太陽放暖策略，但要檢討改正過去的各項弊害，將它做深、做細，鑑別敵友，分層對待；另一方面，則是改吹北風，認定台灣民意已無從挽回，和平發展反而養癰為患，必須直接用鐵錘重擊，才能驚醒天然獨的昏昏美夢。習近平去年三月兩會上提及的「地動山搖」，與十一月馬習會上的「驚濤駭浪」，似乎都在暗示「北風政策」已經進入他的思維，蔡英文一旦越過界線，他將毫不猶豫地結束和平發展階段，讓兩岸變成風狂雨驟。

然而，就在民進黨正式掌控了國會的歷史時刻，習近平卻放出了八位陸客來台灣中轉。這個訊號，當然是婉轉而輕柔的，它猶如一根輕輕飄過海峽的羽毛，依然吐露了和平友善的願望。它也像是一種撩撥，循循誘領民進黨向著「九二共識」趨近，它更是一種不懈的意志展示，表明北京將窮盡一切與分離主義纏鬥到底。

藉著讓陸客中轉上路，習近平實際上已展示了第三個選項，它既不是一片和煦的太陽，亦非全然凜冽的北風，而是揉合了兩者。對於人民的經濟民生，北京仍然要以太陽照拂，因此陸客雖然減少，仍然照舊要來，航班照舊要飛，如今甚至加碼中轉略略示好。但對於堅拒承認「九二共識」的民進黨，則備妥北風伺候，雪崩斷交、國際擠壓，乃至軍事威嚇，都是點菜的方案。

陸客中轉試點率爾上路，當中真正的蹊蹺就在於，習近平已深切體認：一個新的時代已經展開，它是一個沒有國民黨的兩岸關係，此時此刻是紅綠對弈的真正嚆矢。去年Ｍ五○三航路、卡式台胞證皆已有跡可循，耐人尋味；而陸客中轉，無疑是習近平蹲好馬步，畫出的第一招起手式。