Chen Shui-bian: Two Solutions, Before and After 2016

Chen Shui-bian: Two Solutions, Before and After 2016
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 24, 2013

Summary: The cases against Chen Shui-bian must be resolved before 2016 by means of medical parole. Otherwise the DPP will continue raising a stink. Will this lead to "medical parole" becoming an albatross around the Democratic Progressive Party's neck in 2016? Will this become a hurdle the DPP cannot overcome?

Full Text below:

Chen Shui-bian and the DPP need to think clearly. The issue of Chen Shui-bian's treatment has two solutions, each at different points in time. One. Medical parole before the 2016 presidential election. Two. A presidential pardon after the 2016 presidential election.

So far Chen Shui-bian and the DPP appear to be seeking medical parole or home recuperation before the 2016 presidential election. But the likelihood of this is low. The DPP constantly engages in stunts such as kicking down the door to the Minister of Justice's office. What sort of impression does this leave on the public? Positive or negative? Besides, if the situation drags on until the 2016 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian's case is likely to become box office poison and hurt the DPP's election prospects. When the time comes, will the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate kick down the door to Tseng Yung-fu's office?

Rumor has it that Chen Shui-bian's lawyers are seeking to halt all further prosecutions, on grounds of insanity. But this approach will also make him ineligible for a pardon. Never mind that Ma Ying-jeou has yet to decide whether to grant Chen a presidential pardon. Suppose the DPP wins the 2016 presidential election? Chen Shui-bian would be totally unrepentant. He would face further prosecution. Unless the DPP is willing to tear the nation apart, will it dare grant Chen Shui-bian a pardon?

The DPP needs to think clearly. What impact will the Chen Shui-bian factor have on 2016? Today the DPP is milking the Chen Shui-bian "medical parole" issue for all it is worth. During the 2016 presidential election will the greedy, extremist, and shameless Chen Shui-bian become an albatross around the DPP's neck? How will that presidential election campaign play out? Can the DPP really predict?

Chen Shui-bian has painted himself into a corner. The more shrilly he demands "medical parole," the more outrageous his antics, the less legitimate his prospects of receiving a presidential pardon. The DPP also finds itself on the horns of a dilemma. The more it demands "medical parole," the more likely its 2016 presidential election campaign will be inextricably linked to Chen Shui-bian.

Consider the likelihood of "medical parole" before 2016. Every time the Green Camp precipitates a confrontation over "medical parole," the Ministry of Justice reaffirms that Chen "may not receive medical parole." It reaffirms the jurisprudence. Chiu Yi-ying kicked down the door to the MInister of Justice's office. She undermined public sympathy and support yet again. The Ministry of Justice has arranged for a private 243 Ping "five-star house arrest ward" in the Pei-de Hospital. It has published videos of Chen Shui-bian relaxing in the garden. His hands were rock steady. They were not shaking. The Ministry of Justice has addressed all four aspects of the issue, including compassion, logic, law, and medical treatment. Chen Shui-bian and the DPP will not find an attack on this front easy. The Ministry of Justice has already decided to "go strictly by the book."  The DPP is attempting to exploit this issue by applying pressure on President Ma. But the more the DPP politicizes the case, the more Ma Ying-jeou back away from it, and the more the possibility of a political solution tends toward zero.

Chen Shui-bian and the DPP hope to resolve the matter before 2016, by resort to "medical parole." But their efforts will be in vain. Consider the possibility of a change in ruling parties and a DPP presidential pardon after 2016. Perhaps one can make a stronger case for this. But it would have preconditions. The cases pending against Chen would have to be swiftly resolved. Chen Shui-bian would also have to admit guilt and express remorse, Only then can whoever is president after 2016 pardon Chen Shui-bian. Only then can Chen Shui-bian be granted parole for his current convictions (2018 or 2009), one to three years in advance. Other cases involve specific sentences. Chen can be pardoned for them all collectively. Therefore Chen should not demand that prosecutions against him be halted. Instead he should demand speedy trials.

If the Kuomintang candidate is elected president in 2016, Chen must admit guilt and express remorse. The new president may wish to improve the political climate. He could seize the opportunity to pardon Chen Shui-bian. If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate is elected, if the cases against Chen are resolved, and if Chen admits guilt and expresses remorse, a pardon is even more likely. As Shih Ming-teh noted, "The key to Chen Shui-bian's parole, is not in the hands of Ma Ying-jeou. It is not in the mouth of Chen fanatics, (It is also not in the feet of Chiu Yi-ying) but in the heart of Chen Shui-bian."

For the DPP, Chen Shui-bian is a "chronic depression patient" whose hand shakes uncontrollably in public but remains rock steady when he thinks he is alone. He is also a symbol of insatiable greed and Taiwan independence extremism. Those who kick down doors to support him, know all about Chen Shui-bian's "hand tremors." They are merely attempting to win votes from fundamentalists who uncritically abet Chen Shui's unbridled greed and political extremism. Such tactics, in such an atmosphere, may help the Democratic Progressive Party in elections at various levels prior to 2016. But they could become a drag on the DPP's prospects in the 2016 presidential election.

The cases against Chen Shui-bian must be resolved before 2016 by means of medical parole. Otherwise the DPP will continue raising a stink. Will this lead to "medical parole" becoming an albatross around the Democratic Progressive Party's neck in 2016? Will this become a hurdle the DPP cannot overcome?

陳水扁的兩個解答：在2016之前或之後
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.04.24 03:03 am

陳水扁和民進黨現在都要想清楚，陳水扁的處遇問題，有兩個解決的假想時間點：一、在二○一六總統大選前，以「保外就醫」解決；二、在二○一六總統大選後，以「總統特赦」解決。

陳水扁及民進黨如今之計，似乎是想在二○一六總統大選前，以「保外就醫」或「居家療養」解決，但此計成功的可能性極低。現在民進黨必須顧慮的是：此計既然幾無成功的可能性，民進黨卻三不五時要用踹破法務部長大門之類的方法來反覆表演，究竟對社會觀感是個正數或負數？何況，此一情勢若拖到二○一六總統大選，則陳水扁的處遇問題必像毒蛇一般纏住了民進黨的選情，到時候難道民進黨的總統候選人還要再去踹曾勇夫的大門？

據說，陳水扁的律師團正在研究，以陳水扁心神喪失為理由，要求扁案停止一切審判。但此計的直接效果，就是不啻封殺了特赦之路。莫說馬英九因仍有未定讞的案子不能對扁特赦，即使民進黨人贏得了二○一六總統職位，面對完全不知懺悔且又諸案尚未定讞的陳水扁，除非不惜撕裂國家，誰敢給陳水扁特赦？

民進黨要想清楚，陳水扁因素會在二○一六發生什麼影響？現今將陳水扁「保外就醫」炒得紅紅火火的民進黨，若在二○一六總統大選被極貪、極獨與極不知恥的陳水扁纏住了，那場總統大選將是何等不可預測的場景？

陳水扁已陷入困局，「保外就醫」鬧得愈凶、愈離譜，對陳水扁「特赦」的正當性就愈低；民進黨也已陷入困境，愈要炒作「保外就醫」，二○一六總統大選就愈可能被陳水扁纏住。

回頭來看在二○一六年以前「保外就醫」的可能性。綠營每次發動「保外就醫」的衝突，就使法務部所堅持的「不可保外就醫」的法理更清楚地呈現一次，而如邱議瑩踹門事件則使「保外就醫」的社會同情又消損一次。此次法務部一方面在培德病監安排了二四三坪獨門獨院的「五星級軟禁病房」，另一方面又公布了陳水扁未抖手的「遊園」畫面，藉此充分展現了法務部在情、理、法、醫四方面的完整立場。陳水扁及民進黨倘欲攻陷這條防線，恐非易事；因為，法務部已經決定「依法行政」。至於民進黨欲以此事對馬總統施壓，但民進黨愈將此案政治化，將愈使馬英九對此避忌，因而只有愈使此案走向政治解決的可能性趨於零。

所以，陳水扁及民進黨欲在二○一六年前以「保外就醫」解決此事，即形同徒勞；因而，改朝「二○一六後以特赦解決」的方向思考，或許始為正辦。唯前提是，早日完成諸案訴訟定讞，且陳水扁須讓國人感知其有認罪悛悔之意，則在二○一六年後，無論誰任總統，皆有特赦陳水扁的可能。如此，陳水扁即有可能較現在定讞諸案的假釋期（二○一八年或二○一九年）早一至三年釋放；且其他諸案若另有定讞刑罰，皆可一併赦免。倘作此想，扁方即非但不應主張停止審判，反而應要求加速審判。

國民黨人若在二○一六年當選總統，只要扁諸案定讞且表達悛悔，新總統為改善政治氣象，當有特赦陳水扁的可能性；而若是民進黨人當選，也只要諸案定讞、扁認錯悔悟，自更有特赦的可能性。但是，關鍵在於施明德所說：「釋放陳水扁的鑰匙，不在馬英九手中，不在扁迷口中，（按，此處可加『也不在邱議瑩腳下』），而是在陳水扁心中。」

對於民進黨來說，陳水扁不但是一個「人前手抖／人後手不抖」的憂鬱病患，他也是惡貪與極獨的象徵人物。那些踹門挺扁者，其實對陳水扁的「選擇性手抖」亦是心知肚明，他（她）們只是欲借挺扁來籠絡那些挺貪挺獨的基本教義派；這樣的手法與氛圍，或許有利於民進黨二○一六年以前的各級選舉，卻可能拖累了民進黨二○一六年總統大選的選情。

依目前情勢看，陳水扁案若不可能在二○一六年前以「保外就醫」解決，而民進黨仍要這樣無理取鬧下去，會不會反而把「保外就醫」留成了民進黨在二○一六的禍根，使民進黨終究跨不過二○一六年這個重大關卡？