Ten Trillion in Imports over Five Years: A New Sheriff in Town?

Ten Trillion in Imports over Five Years:
A New Sheriff in Town?
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 16, 2013

Summary: When Xi Jinping spoke of "Ten trillion US in imports over five years," he was telling the world that Mainland China's economic pie is huge, and that he hoped other countries would fight over it. The Mainland has undergone a transformation, from global factory to global marketplace. The import pie is seductive. That is a fact. Have no doubt. Have we on Taiwan thought about how to get a bigger piece of this pie?

Full text below:

At the Boao Forum Mainland President Xi Jinping said, "Over the next five years, [Mainland] China will import about ten trillion US Dollars in goods. Foreign investment will reach 500 billion US. The number of tourists going overseas is likely to exceed 400 million people." This was a concrete description of just how much the Mainland economy has grown. It was also a declaration to the world: It is time the global economy had a new leader.

If a nation has strong exports, and enjoys a huge trade surplus, it means it is able to sell a lot of goods and earn a lot of money from other countries. It should of course be happy, feel proud, and look forward to maintaining this state of affairs. But such countries often attract criticism. Other countries invariably complain that it is making too much money, that it is "stealing their jobs." This was true for West Germany, Japan, and even the Taiwan Region. Today, it is true of the Mainland Region as well. When one enjoys a huge trade surplus, one invariably becomes the target of criticism.

Those who are truly welcomed, are those who fling open their doors, and buy large quantities of products from other countries. One example is the United States. Following World War II, the United States became the leader of the capitalist countries. The US boasted unparalleled political, military, and economic might. Another important factor also came into play. The United States opened its domestic markets. It allowed its allies to sell goods to the United States, to earn foreign exchange, and to boost their economies. Western Europe, Japan, and the Asian tigers all followed the same growth pattern and shared the same interests. All of them recognized the U.S. as the leader. Scholars who have studied post-war international political and economic relations, have described this relationship as "hegemonic economic privilege and tolerance." This enabled the US to establish hegemonic leadership.

The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) last year was 15.8 trillion US. It is still the largest economy in the world. Its annual imports are around 2.2 trillion US. The Mainland's GDP was 8.3 trillion, the second largest in the world, just over half that of the U.S. The Mainland's imports last year amounted to 1.8 trillion US, also close to the United States. Germany, which ranks just behind the Mainland, imports about 1.3 trillion US a year, Japan is the world's third-largest economy. It imports only about 800 billion U.S. a year, far less than other advanced industrial countries. Imports amount to only about five or six hundred billion U.S. Obviously, for now and the foreseeable future, only Mainland China rivals the U.S. in import markets. The rest are not worth mentioning.

In fact, the Mainland import market has experienced nearly a decade of rapid growth. This has long been a key factor affecting the economies of many countries. The Mainland Region accounts for approximately 40% of the Taiwan Region's exports. It has long exceeded the United States' 10% or so. If the Mainland economy slumps, the impact on Taiwan will be greater than that of the U.S. This change affects more than Taiwan. In recent years Asian regional trade has greatly increased, from 800 billion U.S. to three trillion US. For neighboring Asian countries, Mainland China has replaced Japan as their primary export market. This has increased the Mainland's political and economic power in the region significantly. Their situation is similar to Taiwan's.

One of the most obvious areas is undoubtedly the raw materials market. The Mainland has become the largest importer of raw materials in the world. The world's leading raw materials exporting countries include Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and India. Their economies are no longer affected primarily by the U.S. economy, whether for good or ill. Instead, they are affected primarily by the Mainland. In 1992, Brazilian exports to the Mainland were a neglibile 0.4% of total exports. Today that percentage has risen to 15%. For India that number has risen from 0.4% to 10%. Traders in raw materials futures say the Mainland is the "2,000-pound gorilla" in the room. Its appetite for raw materials is insatiable. Last year, the Mainland experienced an economic slowdown. Demand fell. The result was a sharp fall in raw materials prices. Australian, Brazilian, and Indonesian exports were immediately affected. This led to the devaluation of their currencies, and slowed economic growth.

The same is true for tourism. The United Nations World Tourism Organization recently released its latest statistics. Mainland Chinese tourists spent up to $ 10.2 billion on overseas travel last year. Mainland China has surpassed the United States and Germany, and currently ranks number one. It is the first country to exceed 10 billion dollars in overseas tourism expenditures. Overseas tourism amounted to 83 million person visits. The report said Mainland tourists were "the international tourists most willing to spend money." Mainland tourist consumption boosts the economies of the countries visited. The Taiwan Region is not alone in seeking Mainland tourism. Everyone seeks Mainland Chinese tourism. Mainland tourists accounted for nearly half of all luxury items sold by British department stores last year. Britain and the United States have expedited the visa application process for Mainland tourists.

Mao's verse "Qing Yuan Chun" said "This land is so fertile, it has persuaded countless heroes to fight over it." When Xi Jinping spoke of "Ten trillion US in imports over five years," he was telling the world that Mainland China's economic pie is huge, and that he hoped other countries would fight over it. The Mainland has undergone a transformation, from global factory to global marketplace. The import pie is seductive. That is a fact. Have no doubt. Have we on Taiwan thought about how to get a bigger piece of this pie?
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2013.04.17
社論－5年進口10兆美元 全球大哥換人作看看
本報訊

    　大陸國家主席習近平最近在博鰲論壇上說，「今後五年，中國將進口十兆美元左右的商品，對外投資規模將達到五千億美元，出境旅客有可能超過四億人次。」這番話，不但具體描述了中國經濟的的崛起與份量，更是向全世界喊話：全球經濟龍頭大哥，該換人作看看了！

    　一個國家出口強勁，享有龐大的順差，代表有能力賣出許多商品，賺取其它國家的錢，當然是值得高興、自豪，而且希望能繼續維持。但，這種國家往往是「顧人怨」，別的國家總是埋怨它賺太多錢、搶了自己國人的工作；當年的西德、日本─甚至台灣，今天的大陸，在享有龐大的貿易順差的同時，總是成為被指責的對象。

    　真正最受歡迎者，是那種敞開大門，拚命買他國東西的國家─例如美國。美國在二戰後能成為資本主義體系國家的龍頭大哥，除了其政治、軍事、經濟上無與倫比的綜合國力外，很重要的一個因素，就是美國敞開國內市場，讓盟邦把商品賣到美國、賺取外匯、提振經濟；西歐、日本及隨後的亞洲四小龍，幾乎都是循著同一模式成長。有這個實際利益，大家就認了老美這個大哥。研究戰後國際政治經濟關係的學者，就形容這種關係是「霸權給予的經濟特權與寬容」，藉此也更確立霸權的領導地位。

    　去年美國的國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）是十五．八兆美元，仍是全球經濟規模最大的經濟體，其一年進口量大概是二．二兆美元左右；大陸ＧＤＰ八．三兆美元，是全球第二大經濟體，雖然其規模約是美國的一半多點，但大陸去年進口金額是一．八兆美元，已非常接近美國了。排名在大陸之後的德國一年進口大概一．三兆美元，日本雖然是全球第三大經濟體，但每年進口金額只有八千億美元左右，其它先進工業國差更多，進口金額更是只在五、六千億美元之譜。顯然，在現在與可見的未來，以進口市場之龐大，只有大陸足以與美國匹敵，餘子俱不值一述。

    　事實上，大陸進口市場近十年的快速增長，早已成為影響許多國家經濟的關鍵因素。台灣的主要出口地，大陸占了四成左右，已遠超過美國的一成上下；大陸經濟走低對台灣的影響，已超過美國的影響。有此轉變者不止台灣，近十年亞洲除了區內貿易額由八千億美元大增為三兆美元，亞洲鄰近國家都以大陸取代日本作為主要出口市場，讓大陸在區域內的政治、經濟力大幅提升，其情況就如台灣一樣。

    　另外一個最明顯的領域當屬大宗原物料市場，大陸成為全球胃納量最大的國家，全球主要的原物料出口國─如澳洲、巴西、印尼，甚至印度，其經濟主要不再是受美國經濟好壞的牽引，取而代之的是大陸。一九九二年時，巴西出口到大陸商品占其總出口的比重，只有微不足道的○．四％，今日已達十五％；同一數據，印度也從○．四％上升到十％左右。原物料期貨商形容，大陸就像是房間裡「二千磅的大猩猩」，對原物料永遠不滿足。去年大陸經濟放緩、需求降低，結果是全球原物料價格暴跌，澳洲、巴西、印尼的出口立刻受影響，導致貨幣貶值、經濟成長走低。

    　觀光旅遊的意義亦相同，聯合國世界旅遊組織日前發布的統計數字，去年大陸觀光客在海外旅遊消費金額高達一○二○億美元，不但超越美、德躍居首位，更是第一個突破千億美元的國家；出國旅客人次達八千三百萬人次。報告中指大陸人是「最會花錢的國際觀光客」─這代表的是大陸觀光客為旅遊國帶來的消費與經濟助力。因此，不是只有台灣在爭取陸客觀光，而是各國都在爭取；英國百貨公司的奢侈品消費，陸客占去近一半，英、美因此紛紛簡化大陸的旅遊簽證。

    　毛澤東的《沁園春》說：「江山如此多嬌，引無數英雄競折腰」；習近平的「五年進口十兆美元」話，也是告訴全世界，中國經濟大餅如此多嬌，希望各國為之折腰。中國經濟的崛起、從世界工廠轉為全球市場的進程、進口大餅的誘人，已是事實，不必懷疑；台灣是否已經想好，該如何加入、並爭取到更多的中國大餅？