New Cross-Strait Strategic Scenario: Pragmatic Exchanges, No More Unilateral Concessions

New Cross-Strait Strategic Scenario:
Pragmatic Exchanges, No More Unilateral Concessions
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 11, 2013

Summary: Following the Siew Xi Meeting, Vincent Siew urged the two sides to "confront the new situation, agree on a common vision, connect with Asia and the Pacific, and revitalize the Chinese nation." Compare this slogan to Lien Chan's slogan when he met Xi Jinping. "One China, Cross-strait peace, mutually beneficial integration, revitalizing the Chinese nation." The vision is even more far-sighted. It more closely echoes Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream." But the Ma administration must rise above internal political interference and international strategic constraints. It must change its increasingly conservative cross-Strait thinking. Otherwise, as US academic Richard Bush noted about cross-Strait relations, time will not be on Taiwan's side.

Full text below:

Mainland President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia that attracted widespread attention. Its theme was "Asia and the world work together to create a better future." Tensions remain high on the Korean Peninsula. Observers are focused on how Mainland China intends to deal with North Korea. They are attempting to ascertain, based on Xi's speech, whether relations between the PRC and the DPRK have changed. Xi stressed that no one should "create regional and global chaos for selfish motives." They wondered whether Xi's statement constituted to a threat to use force against North Korea.

Observers differ on whether Xi Jinping's speech was directed at North Korea. The theme of his speech suggests it was motivated primarily by the desire to establish a mechanism for geopolitical security, including economic and trade cooperation. This obviously, is not something the authorities in North Korea support, especially since Xi urged the international community to promote collective security. Xi said that "When national governments maintain frequent exchanges, collisions are inevitable." He said a mechanism for collective security can resolve differences and conflicts. This was a reminder to the U.S. not to seize the opportunity to stir up trouble on the Korean Peninsula, then use the trouble as a pretext to to resume Cold War containment.

Taipei should be concerned about another aspect of Xi Jinping's speech. Xi repeatedly referred to the "Chinese Dream." He said "I hope that by the year 2020, the gross domestic product will double, creating a moderately prosperous society. I hope that by mid-century we can have a prosperous, democratic, civilized, and harmonious modern socialist country, and achieve a renaissance for the Chinese people." This was not the first time Xi Jinping spoke of the Chinese dream. But it was the first time he affirmed it in an international setting. It was the first time he mentioned it since becoming the highest ranking member of the Mainland government. His reasons for doing so, and the far-reaching consequences for cross-Strait relations, are worth pondering.

First of all, Xi Jinping's speech revealed how the new generation of Mainland leaders' International and strategic vision differs from that of past past leaders. Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and other leaders pursued a "low profile" foreign policy. Their policy may survive into the future. But it will gradually include active participation, collective cooperation, openness and inclusiveness. This reflects changes in the Mainland's strength. But it also reflects the psychological background of the Xi Li generation, who received their education during the Cultural Revolution. They experienced unforgettable hardships and a history of humiliation. They are eager to restore national pride among the Chinese people. They want them to have confidence in the future.

Consider the Mainland's strategic interests. The most important issue now, is achieving moderate prosperity, and by the middle of this century, establishing a modern nation. Xi Jinping spoke of a grand renaissance of the Chinese people, of a "Chinese Dream." Absent a peaceful internal and external environment, such an ambitious goal will remain empty talk. That is why Xi Jinping repeatedly stressed the importance of peace. He said peace was "like air and sunlight. If you have it, you are unaware of it. But once you lose it, it is difficult to regain." Altogether, he made a total of 14 references to peace. He said ensuring peace was the responsibility of major nations. He said peace was essential to their long-term prosperity.

Peace is indispensable for the Mainland's development. Therefore it is indispensable for cross-Strait relations. The past five years of cross-Strait peaceful development have brought the two sides closer together. A shooting war between the two sides is now nearly impossible. Cross-Strait relations have improved. Mainland power has increased. Mainland modernization has accelerated. Mainland authorities are increasingly confident. Cross-Strait peace is now linked to peaceful reunification. This is something the ruling and opposition parties on Taiwan should take note of. The new generation of Mainland leaders holds different views on cross-Strait issues.

What are those views? Recently the "Wang Bao" interviewed Zhang Nianshi, a Mainland think tank analyst who specializes in Taiwan affairs. Zhang commented on the new generation of Mainland leaders. He thinks that Xi and Li perceive Taiwan differently than Hu JIntao. Hu Jintao hoped to change hearts and minds on Taiwan. He was willing to make generous concessions to Taiwan. Xi and Li may not share his attitude. Li Keqiang once said, "Between brothers, anything is negotiable." The implication was that if we aren't brothers, then you can forget about concessions. As Zhang sees it, cross-Strait economic and trade consultations will require more explicit confirmations that the two sides are in fact brothers. Otherwise, the Mainland will not be making any concessions.

During the Boao Forum Xi Jinping spoke with Vincent Siew. He stressed how compatriots on both sides are one family. They all belong to the same Chinese nation. The cross-Strait economy is part of China's economy. The Mainland will give more consideration to the needs and interests of Taiwan compatriots. This shows that the new generation of Mainland leaders are increasingly confident about the Taiwan issue as they pursue the "Chinese dream." More and more they see compatriates who see themselves as members of the same family, as a necessary precondition to improved cross-Strait cooperation. This illustrates the pragmatic style of the new Mainland leaders. This shows that cross-Strait exchanges will become increasingly pragmatic. The Mainland will no longer grant unilateral concessions. Instead, it will seek truth from facts. Its ritual gesture to Vincent Siew was merely based on VIP protocol. It will no longer make special concessions.

Following the Siew Xi Meeting, Vincent Siew urged the two sides to "confront the new situation, agree on a common vision, connect with Asia and the Pacific, and revitalize the Chinese nation." Compare this slogan to Lien Chan's slogan when he met Xi Jinping. "One China, Cross-strait peace, mutually beneficial integration, revitalizing the Chinese nation." The vision is even more far-sighted. It more closely echoes Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream." But the Ma administration must rise above internal political interference and international strategic constraints. It must change its increasingly conservative cross-Strait thinking. Otherwise, as US academic Richard Bush noted about cross-Strait relations, time will not be on Taiwan's side.
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2013.04.11
社論－兩岸新局：務實交流 大陸不再無端讓利
本報訊

    　大陸國家主席習近平日前在博鰲亞洲論壇，發表題為「共同創造亞洲和世界的美好未來」演說，受到各方關注。正當朝鮮半島情勢緊張之際，外界多聚焦於中方如何應對朝鮮危局，試圖從習的演說中探悉中朝關係是否生變；而習在演說中強調不能「為一己之私把一個地區乃至世界搞亂」，更被形容是針對北韓武嚇舉措而發。

    　習近平的演說是否針對北韓而發，各界有不同見解；從他的演講主題來看，主要是以倡議建立地緣政治的集體安全，以及包括經濟貿易的合作為主，而這顯然不是北韓所能承擔的。尤其習主張國際社會應該倡導綜合安全、共同安全、合作安全的理念，作為「各國交往頻繁，難免磕磕碰碰」時，解決分歧矛盾的機制；如果說這也是在提醒美國勿趁勢挑起朝鮮半島危局，藉此重建冷戰圍堵結構而來，似乎還更準確些。

    　對台灣來說，更應該關注的是習近平演說的另一個重點，也就是他再次提到「中國夢」的奮鬥目標─「希望到二○二○年，國內生產總值翻一番，全面建成小康社會，到本世紀中葉建成富強民主文明和諧的社會主義現代化國家，實現中華民族的偉大復興」。這不是習近平第一次談中國夢，卻是他當上大陸最高領導人後，首次在國際場域宣示中國夢的奮鬥目標，箇中深意以及對未來兩岸關係的影響，十分值得探究。

    　首先，習近平演說充分顯示，大陸新一代領導人的國際視野與戰略格局，已經大大不同於以往；歷經鄧小平、江澤民、胡錦濤等幾代領導人所奉行不逾的「韜光養晦」外交路線，未來即使還存在，也將逐漸被新的積極參與、集體合作、開放包容等內涵所填補。這種轉變當然與大陸整體國力提升有關，但也反映出習李這一代文革知青的心理背景，他們經歷過刻骨銘心的磨難，對過往歷史充滿屈辱感，渴望建立中國人的民族驕傲，面對未來，充滿信心。

    　從大陸的國家戰略利益來說，眼前最重要課題是如何實現全面小康，進而在本世紀中葉建設成為一個現代化國家，實現習近平所稱的中華民族偉大復興的「中國夢」，倘若沒有一個和平的內外環境，上述遠大目標勢必淪為空談。因此，習近平才會在演說中反覆強調和平的重要，「猶如空氣和陽光，受益而不覺，失之則難存」，前後共十四次提到和平二字，既是用以彰顯大國意識的責任，也是基於長遠圖強之所需。

    　「和平」既然是大陸國家發展的「硬道理」，兩岸問題自然也離不開這一軌道。毫無疑問，兩岸經過五年來的和平發展，彼此的關係已更趨緊密，雙方炮火相向的可能性近乎於零。而隨著兩岸關係的深化，特別是大陸國力提升與現代化進程的加速推進，大陸當局已越來越有信心把兩岸和平發展與兩岸的和平統一連結一起。這當中最值得台灣朝野關注的，是大陸新一代領導人對兩岸問題的看法已經發生變化。

    　什麼變化呢？大陸涉台智庫學者章念馳最近接受《旺報》訪問時，提到他對大陸新一代領導人的觀察。他認為習李對台灣的看法與胡錦濤不一樣，胡錦濤希望改變台灣人的認同，願意不計代價對台讓利，習李可能就沒有這種觀念，李克強曾說「兄弟之間什麼都好談」，言外之意，不是兄弟就免談。因此他判斷，未來兩岸經貿協商，除非兄弟關係更加確定，否則大陸不會讓利。

    　博鰲論壇上習近平與蕭萬長會談時，強調「兩岸同胞都是一家人，同屬中華民族、兩岸經濟同屬中華經濟，大陸會多考慮台灣同胞需求與利益」，足證大陸新一代領導人在實現「中國夢」的使命下，對台灣問題不但越來越有信心，而且是以同胞手足一家人的民族認同，作為雙方深化合作的必要前提。這顯示出大陸新領導人的務實作風，未來兩岸關係因此將走向務實交流，大陸不可能再無端讓利，一切實事求是，即使像蕭萬長座位這種儀式性的動作，也只按照出席貴賓的重要性來安排，不再刻意破格接待。

    　蕭萬長在蕭習會後的記者會上，提出：「面對新局、共築願景、攜手亞太、振興中華」十六字，相較於之前連戰會見習近平提出的「一個中國、兩岸和平、互利融合、振興中華」，格局更見寬廣，也與習近平的「中國夢」相為呼應；但如果馬政府無法超脫內部政治干擾與國際因素的制約，不去改變近來益趨保守的兩岸思維，那麼未來幾年的兩岸關係發展恐怕就將如美國學者卜睿哲所預見的趨於遲緩，而時間並非站在台灣這一邊。