Monday, December 2, 2013

East China Sea Situation: Taipei's Role is to Make Peace

East China Sea Situation: Taipei's Role is to Make Peace
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
December 3, 2013


Summary: In the East China Sea, a weaker power caught between two strong powers can do little. The Ma Ying-jeou government is relatively neutral. Its behavior and speech are rational. It has indicated that the issue of sovereignty is not involved. That was left to the discretion of the relevant ministries. They would ensure goodwill and the larger interests of the nation. Yet the DPP and Pan Green media blasted him. They accused him of "pandering to [Mainland] China" and "selling out Taiwan." They accused him of self-abasement. Such accusations are unreasonable. The media should not add fuel to the fire.

Full text below:

On November 23, Beijing's Ministry of Defense announced its "Scope of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone." It included the Diaoyutai Islands. Beijing declared that in the future, all aircraft flying within the zone would be required to provide identification. Otherwise, the Mainland's armed forces could take "emergency defensive measures." The announcement touched raw nerves in Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and Taipei. East China Sea tensions escalated. Even neighboring countries such as South Korea and Australia expressed concern. The Republic of China government is among the parties involved. Therefore it has a right to speak on the matter. It must adopt a firm stance on the matter.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "We absolutely do not accept (Chinese) attempts to change the status quo by force." He ordered Japan's airlines not to cooperate. The U.S. State Department also issued a statement. It said "This unilateral action constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea. Escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident." It reiterated the U.S. commitment to allies and partners, saying that Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty applies to the Diaoyutai Islands. Japan refers to the islands as "Senkaku." American B-52 bombers overflew over the Diaoyutai Islands. The Mainland's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, held exercises in the waters of the South China Sea. The situation will apparently get worse before it gets better.

View the matter objectively. Tensions in the region are increasing. Witihout advance warning, Beijing suddenly announced an air defense identification zone. The timing and manner were not conducive to regional stability. Whether the situation will worsen in the future is debatable. Will Beijing go further and designate air defense identification zones in the Yellow Sea and South China Seas? That remains to be seen. Beijing's move was aimed mainly at Japan. This is indisputable. Beijing probably expected the reaction from the Washington. But other countries have reacted swiftly. Opposition has been widespread. Tensions with many neighbors have increased. This is not in Beijing's best interests.

The concerned parties have alll put on shows. They have all spoken their peace. We believe conflict can be avoided. We do not believe war is imminent. The parties are merely testing each other's bottom lines. For the moment, they are merely exchanging insults and putting on a show, attempting to counter each others' arrogance. This is the time to prevent tensions from esclating. If something truly unexpected were to happen, even a small-scale accident, someone might attempt to gain an advantage. Even unexpected conflicts must be avoided. The parties can adhere to their positions. They can defend their dignity. They can demand that their interests be protected. But if a shooting war erupts, all parties will be losers.

Beijing, Washington, and Tokyo need not go to war over this tiny island. For Beijing, keeping a low profile while taking care of business is still its best foreign policy option. It needs a stable international and domestic environment to pursue economic growth and address its domestic problems. Even a tiny leak can sink a great ship. Therefore, Beijing need not provoke trouble, and destroy a rare opportunity for strategic development. Beijing's move was not necessarily an attempt to change the status quo. Many actions Washington and Tokyo took were indeed provocative. But Beijing must realize that if China and Japan clash, no matter how small or large the conflict, the biggest winner will be the US. A wise man will not be taken in.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will visit China, Japan, and South Korea this week. He says this is to enhance communication. He says he wants to understand Beijing's strategic intentions. In fact the problem has nothing to do with a lack of communications or lack of knowledge. The problem is that everyone has his own position. Everyone has internal pressures and cannot compromise. Take Taipei's perspective. The Japanese government nationalized the Diaoyutai Islands. It made the first move. It upset the status quo. It must be severely condemned. Washington's flagrantly biased pro-Japanese stance must also be condemned as unacceptable. Beijing included the Diaoyutai Islands in its territorial sea baselines. It included them its air defense identification zone. It included them because it was compelled to do so. This is why we are willing to withhold judgment.

Lastly, the ROC Legislature passed a resolution yesterday, requiring the government to issue a strong statement. This is political grandstanding. Legislators from any nations are inclined to make unrealistic boasts. They cannot be taken seriously. President Ma Ying-jeou has repeatedly set forth his East China Sea Peace Initiative. He advocates shelving disputes. He hopes that peaceful dialogue will resolve problems through negotiations. He advocates joint development of resources. This is actually a reasonable proposition, in line with the best interests of all parties. Unfortunately Taipei is often ignored. Nobody pays any attention. In the East China Sea, a weaker power caught between two strong powers can do little. The Ma Ying-jeou government is relatively neutral. Its behavior and speech are rational. It has indicated that the issue of sovereignty is not involved. That was left to the discretion of the relevant ministries. They would ensure goodwill and the larger interests of the nation. Yet the DPP and Pan Green media blasted him. They accused him of "pandering to [Mainland] China" and "selling out Taiwan." They accused him of self-abasement. Such accusations are unreasonable. The media should not add fuel to the fire.

社論-東海風雲緊 和平是台灣唯一角色
稍後再讀
中國時報 本報訊 2013年12月03日 04:10

11月23日,大陸國防部公告「東海防空識別區」範圍,將釣魚台列嶼劃入。北京宣稱,今後所有在此範圍內飛行的航空器須提供識別,否則大陸的武裝力量可採取「防禦性緊急處置措施」。事情一經宣布,不但牽動美、中、日、台敏感神經,引發東海區域緊張,甚至連其他周邊的國家,如南韓及澳洲也對此同表關切。台灣身為當事人之一,不但要有發言權,更要拿出堅定的立場和態度。

日本首相安倍晉三曾經指出,「對於(中國)試圖以武力改變現狀的行為,我們絕對不接受」,指令日本航空公司不得配合,而美國國務院也發表聲明,警告「這項片面行動已經構成企圖改變東海的現狀,升高行動只會增高區域的緊張情勢並製造發生意外的風險」,重申美國對盟邦和夥伴的承諾堅定不移,美日安保條約的第5條適用於尖閣群島(釣魚台列嶼),美國的B-52轟炸機飛越釣魚台上空,大陸航空母艦遼寧號則首度前往南海水域進行演訓。看來局勢在改善之前不無繼續惡化的可能。

客觀而言,就目前的區域緊張情勢發展來看,在毫無事前徵兆的情況下,大陸突然公布防空識別區,其時機與方式或許無益於區域穩定,未來情況是否會進一步惡化當然仍有討論空間,北京是否會進一步在黃海、南海地區也劃定防空識別區同樣有待後續觀察,但北京此舉主要針對日本而來應該是不爭的事實,若說大陸完全沒有料到此舉會引發美、日的反彈恐怕與事實並不吻合,但此事引起其他相關國家如此快速、廣泛的反對聲浪,要同時和這麼多鄰國升高緊張,或許也並不符合北京的最大利益。

就目前看來,相關各方現在都擺足了姿態,堅持自己的立場,但坦白的說,我們既不認為衝突無法避免,更不認為戰爭已經迫在眉睫,畢竟有關各方現在都只是在測試對方的底線,目前充其量而言只是在彼此叫陣,做足姿態,企圖壓制對方氣燄,也就是所謂的控制型升高緊張的階段,未來除非真的出現意外(即使這種小規模的意外應該也是盤算後的舉措),或任何一方想要藉著製造衝突來攫取利益,否則即使是偶發性的衝突應該也能避免。立場要顧,尊嚴要保,利益要爭,但真的打了起來,絕對是於人、於己都是個損失。

畢竟中、美、日三方都沒有為此蕞爾小島大動干戈的必要。對北京來說,韜光養晦、有所作為依然應是外交圭臬,而為所當為尤其重要,既然它需要一個安定的國際及國內環境來追求發展,改善內部叢生的問題,因此北京就更沒有必要小不忍則亂大謀的主動惹出事端,破壞自己難得的戰略發展機遇期。我們以為,中共的行動未必是要改變現狀,美、日的部分行動則確有挑釁意涵,但北京心中仍然應該知道,只要中、日發生衝突,不管規模大小,最大的得利者當然非美國莫屬,智者絕不上當。

美國副總統拜登周內將訪問中、日、韓三國,說是要加強溝通,希望了解北京的戰略意圖。其實今天的問題不在三方的溝通不足、了解不夠,而是大家都有自己的立場和堅持,都有內政壓力和不能妥協之處。從台灣的立場來看,事情發展到目前的階段,日本政府當初將釣魚台國有化的舉動是破壞現狀的始作俑者,必須加以嚴厲譴責,美國明顯親日的偏頗立場同樣值得批評,不能接受。中國大陸後來將釣魚台劃入其領海基線,現在又將其劃入防空識別區的舉動,北京認為這只是被動表態的必要作為,對此我們願意抱持理解的態度。

最後,立法院日昨通過決議案,要求政府強力表態,這本身就是一場政治大秀,各國國會議員不切實際、放言高論的惡習隨處可見,不必當真。馬英九總統最近一再提出東海和平倡議,主張暫時擱置爭議,希望用和平、對話、談判的方式來解決問題,共同從事資源的開發,這其實是一個符合各方最大利益的合理主張,可惜的是台灣人微言輕,沒人當成一回事情。在這次東海風雲中,兩大之間難為小,馬英九政府相對中性、理性的舉動及發言,表明此事不涉主權問題,著由相關部會自行處理,其中應該隱涵了一些善意與國族利益的整體考量,結果被民進黨和綠色媒體罵到臭頭,不是親中賣台,就是自我矮化,這樣的指控並不合理,媒體其實不必人云亦云雪上加霜。

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