The 2008 Economy: Awaiting a Leader

The 2008 Economy: Awaiting a Leader
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 7, 2008

Wave goodbye to 2007. Look forward to 2008. Last year the world economy rode a roller coaster. We screamed all the way. Will we be able to get off and catch our breath this year? At the moment it looks as if the economic anomaly of 2007 is over and we are back on track. But Taiwan's economy still has a real obstacle to hurdle, both internally and externally. Its future leadership and tone of government have not been set. Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, statisticians for the major economies, and independent researchers in academia all predict slower global economic growth in 2008. Major reasons include: the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States are continuing to make themselves felt, oil prices remain high, supply and demand for raw materials remains unresolved, and preventing recession has been given priority over preventing inflation. The most important reason however is experts sharply disagree about whether the US economy is in recession, and whether a soft landing of mainland China's economy is possible. Among the many variables are movements in the dollar and RMB exchange rate and changes in consumer demand, and their impact on the major economies' economic policies. The government brims with confidence, but the public is wracked by anxiety. The efficacy of their policies can be seen by the impact of economic globalization on their economies.

Making economic forecasts is a difficult and thankless task. But it must be done. A clear economic forecast is an important tool governments, organizations, and businesses use to allocate limited resources. Not only to make up obvious shortfalls, but also to achieve ones' goals and visions. Unfortunately, real historical changes are often the result of totally unexpected events. This is the main reason economic forecasts must often undergo major revisions. For example, the Asian financial crisis triggered heavy criticism of the Thai Baht. The 9-11 terrorist attack and the SARS crisis derailed the economy. Last year's subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was initially presumed to be a regional crisis. Who knew it would turn into a financial storm? Not only did it rain on last year's global economic outlook, it is casting a dark shadow over this year's as well.

Taiwan's economic outlook for 2008 should be viewed from two indeterminate perspectives. The first is that based on "known unknowns," it will continue down the path taken in 2007. Obviously, if we look exclusively at outside factors, the evolution of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the number one factor. The subprime mortgage crisis has caused major losses on Wall Street. But even more frightening is the loss of confidence in financial transactions and in the regulatory capabilities of major European central banks. Prior to the restoration of order in the financial market, flexible business management is essential. Mergers and acquisitions must be subjected to controls. It will be difficult for the economy to revive. The once high profile process of globalization has changed into something else. Oil prices are not expected to retreat any time soon. Central bank monetary policy is caught between preventing recession and preventing inflation. These indeterminate factors mean a bumpy ride for the global economy, and enormous uncertainty in Taiwan's increasing external demand.

Internally, Taiwan has many difficult problems left over from 2007, and no short-term answers. It is often said that the stock market is a showcase for the economy. From another perspective, the stock market is the referee of economic performance. According to statistics, Taiwan's stock market grew 8.7 percent last year. It ranked next to last among Asian stock markets. The foreign investor overbought index has reached its lowest point in recent years. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics put last year's economic growth rate at 5.5 percent. The Executive Yuan used its "Benefit a Week Program" to artificially raise the TAIEX to the 10,000 point mark. The stock market has given the government a sharp slap in the face. What's worse, the TAIEX rose 100 points at the end of last year. This year the market often opened up but closed down, fortelling a year of unrest.

Actually, earnings from foreign trade and publicly traded companies were high last year. There was no reason for a bear market. But the presidential election, the restructuring of the Legislative Yuan and the reorganization of financial and economic policies introduced considerable uncertainty. These include cross-strait transportation links, loosening of limits on investment on the Chinese mainland, tax reform, and financial reform. All could lead to dramatically different consequences. These are all political "known unknowns" that affect the economy, and that undermine investor confidence.

2008 has begun. Who the nation's leaders will be remains unknown. Their cabinets have not been chosen. The political arena remains chaotic. No one has set a tone. It is the "unknown unknowns" that will determine the strategic picture.

經濟二○○八：等待指揮家就位！
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.01.07 03:13 am

揮別二○○七，迎向二○○八，坐著雲霄飛車一路驚叫的世界經濟，能在新的一年獲得喘息的機會嗎？目前看來，要將二○○七變調的經濟情勢拉回成長的軌道，可是「真拚」；內外交困的台灣經濟，在指揮家未就位前，更難定調。這一年，大家可要坐穩些了。

對於二○○八，上至世界銀行、國際貨幣基金，中到主要經濟體國家統計機構，下至各個獨立的學術研究單位，異口同聲地預言今年全球經濟成長會減速，主因美國次級房貸風暴的遞延效應持續發酵、油價依然居高不下、原物料供需緊張之勢未解，預防衰退的優先性已高於防範通貨膨脹。不過，對於最關鍵的美國經濟是否步入衰退、中國經濟能否軟著陸，各方卻沒有一致性見解，甚且是南轅北轍；這是因為對眾多變數的預期出現歧異，例如美元、人民幣匯率走勢、消費需求的變化等；尤其是對各大經濟體間經濟政策的取捨與博弈，官方信心十足，民間卻憂心忡忡，而其成效對經濟的全球化運行卻是動見觀瞻。

預測未來經濟情勢，本來就是件不容易、不討好，卻又一定要做的事；一組立論清晰的經濟預測，是政府、組織及企業使用有限資源的重要依據，不只是補強看得到的不足，更是為了達成所設定的目標與願景。無奈，真正改變歷史運行軌跡的，往往是完全出乎意料的重大事件，這也是經濟預測常做大幅修正的主因；例如引發亞洲金融危機的泰銖重貶、九一一恐怖攻擊、ＳＡＲＳ風暴等，都曾將經濟情勢推離常軌。就像去年的美國次貸危機，原本市場認為不過是個區域性風暴，卻沒想到形成金融颶風，不只吹散去年世界經濟的歡樂，還為今年的經濟罩上重重的陰霾。

因此，對於二○○八的台灣經濟情勢觀察，須從兩個「未知」的層面來看。一個是沿著二○○七走過的軌跡，從「已知的未知」找方向。很明顯的，就外在環境而言，美國次貸風暴的擴散與演變列名第一。次貸危機表面上的傷勢是華爾街各大金融機構虧損累累，但更可怕的是金融交易的可信度下降，以及歐美各大中央銀行的監管能力公信力及侷限性，在金融市場新秩序建立前，需要流動性的企業經營及併購活動都受箝制，經濟難現活絡；再者，原本高調行進的全球經濟變了調，油價回檔的預期又那麼遙不可及，更讓央行的貨幣政策在預防衰退、防範通膨間左支右絀。這些已知的不確定因素為全球經濟定下「動盪中行進」的基調，也為台灣外部需求的擴張帶來巨大的不確定性。

至於在台灣內部，二○○七留下的待解難題實在不少，而且短期找不到答案。常言謂，股市是經濟的櫥窗；換個角度看，股市更是評價經濟表現的第一線裁判。根據統計，去年台股全年上漲百分之八點七，在亞洲股市中倒數第二，外資淨買超金額也是近年最低；對照主計處發布的去年經濟成長率百分之五點五，以及行政院以「一周一利多」欲鼓動的萬點行情，真是狠狠地刷了政府一個大耳聒子。更甚者，去年底大漲百點封關的台股，今年開紅盤日長黑收市，也多少預示了對這一年的不安。

其實，去年台灣對外貿易、上市上櫃公司盈餘都創新高，股市沒有看壞的理由；但是，總統大選、立法院改制重組帶來的財經政策巨大變化，諸如兩岸通航、開放陸客來台、鬆綁西進上限、稅制及金融改革等，都可能出現天差地別的結果；正是這些政治牽動經濟的「已知的未知」，阻卻了投資人投向台股的意願與勇氣。

然而，二○○八畢竟才剛開始。儘管從現今的時空眺望未來的舞台，呈現的是指揮家未就位、團員未整裝、場布道具待重整的凌亂景象，但事在人為，一切仍未定調；尤其，還有「未知的未知」，那也許會是扭轉大局的真正利多。