A Happy New Year? A Hard Look at the Number of Factory Closings

A Happy New Year? A Hard Look at the Number of Factory Closings
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 9, 2008

According to a recent investigative report by the China Times, over 40,800 companies folded in the first 11 months last year, a record high. Negative economic growth was even worse than during the SARS crisis. This does not even include the figures for December, the peak season for corporate bankruptcies. Last year 31,000 more companies folded than were founded. Only 604,000 companies remain. The drop established a new low.

Official figures show unemployment at record lows. But the brutal reality is that last November over 120,000 workers lost their jobs due to austerity programs or company bankruptcies. an increase of 9,000 over the same period the year before. This matches the high in 2002.

Statistics are not merely numbers on a page. Every number represents an unemployed worker, Behind every worker is a family. Over 120,000 workers have been laid off or fired due to company retrenchments. This means that over 120,000 households don't know how they will get by in the coming year.

The shrinking number of companies is an unprecedented warning to a ruling regime that yammers endlessly about "Growing the Economy." It is hardly something that a press release claiming that "commercial growth momentum remains undiminished" can whitewash. Especially when corporate bankruptcies have already impacted the job market, and when plant closings have led to an increase in involuntary unemployment for the first time in five years. This is something no political leader with the slightest concern for the people can ignore.

The number of companies is shrinking rapidly. This reflects two major concerns for the economy. One is the disappearance of entrepreneurial energy. The other is a slowdown in domestic demand. "Better the head of a dog, than the tail of a lion" used to sum up Taiwan's spirit of entrepreneurship. From Wang Yung-ching, to Chang Jung-fa, to Stan Shih, to Kuo Tai-ming. Every one an Horatio Alger story, an object lesson for countless entrepreneurs, and a testimonial to Taiwan's economic miracle. The tiny island of Taiwan is home to some of the world's largest multi-focused venture capital companies. It is second only to the US, the world's largest economy, and Israel, the homeland of many Wall Street's tycoons.

But the actual number of venture capital firms fell from 231 in 2005 to only 219 in 2006, because they couldn't find any projects to invest in. In 2006 they even had to return the money to investors. reducing the total venture capital investment to 12.8 billion. This is unprecedented. Venture capital is critical for any nation's economic policy. It indicates the economy's growth momentum. It predicts how many people are able to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and replicate Taiwan's economic miracle.

Taiwan's economy is at a critical juncture. It is transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. During this transition it is subject to the mainland's magnetic field. This presents a formidable challenge. Service industries do not appear out of thin air. Taiwan must develop Singapore and Hong Kong style high-value-added services such as finance and accounting. Like these two cities, it must find a home market. It must allow the free flow of capital. It must eliminate investment limits on industry. Nothing could be clearer.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs estimates that 33% of all local businesses earn more revenue overseas than they do locally. But only 18% of gross overseas revenues acrue to local shareholders. Actual funds remitted are even less. For the past three years, international listings on the Taiwan stock exchange have remained castles in the air. Meanwhile wave upon wave of Taiwan businesses have listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Non-urban areas such as Penghu, Taitung, and Hualien need to develop tourism in order to create high value-added enterprises. They need professional business managers. To attract foreign investors and businessmen, they need a steady flow of tourists. Local tourism from the Taiwan region alone is not enough. Besides Taiwan has undergone a brain drain in recent years. According to conservative estimates 500,000 Taiwan business people are living in the Yangtze River Delta region. High consumption tourists have moved to the mainland. Local demand has steadily diminished and has not been replaced. This is the real reason for the record number of bankruptcies last year.

In an era of globalization, no government can close the nation's doors to the outside world. No government can forbid capital to flow out but not enter. No government can allow talent to leave but not return. Taiwan business people have spread out across the world. Professional managers and middle class workers have ventured far and wide to make their fortunes. The government cannot stop them nor should it try. In a globalized world the government should infuse new life into the economy. Ireland was able to put an endless civil war behind it. Hong Kong was able to make a speedy recovery from the Panic of '97. Why can't Taiwan do the same?

No one living on the island wants to badmouth Taiwan. But the hard figures tell us an unpleasant truth. Over 120,000 involuntarily unemployed workers, including recently laid off health instructors at the Alexander health club, tell us that nothing could be more real. A new year has begun. Whom among us doesn't want the coming new year to be a happy new year?

中時電子報
中國時報 　2008.01.09
過個好年？正視關廠歇業人數創新高的警訊
中時社論

　根據本報日前一項調查報導顯示，去年前十一月台灣解散、撤銷與廢止的公司家數高達四萬八百家，已創歷史新高，甚至比經濟負成長、ＳＡＲＳ時間更為惡化。這還不包括傳統企業倒閉解散旺季十二月的數字在內。因為倒閉家數大於新設家數三萬一千家，去年台灣公司家數不增反減，只剩六十萬四千多家，減幅同樣創下歷史新高。

　儘管官方所顯示的失業率數字屢創新低，但淹沒在背後殘酷的實況則是：去年十一月因工作場所緊縮或歇業的失業勞工已超過十二萬人，比去年同期增加九千人。這已是繼民國九十一年的高點後，首度再回到這個高點。

　統計絕不僅僅是冰涼的數字而已，每個單一數字代表一名失業的勞工，每個勞工背後牽動的則是一個家庭，超過十二萬因工作場所緊縮或失業勞工，也意味會有超過十二萬家庭今年的年關還不知道將怎麼過。

　公司家數萎縮，對一個「拚經濟」不離口的政府而言，絕對是空前的警訊，絕非發個新聞稿宣稱「商業成長動能持續活絡」，就能粉飾太平了。更何況，企業倒閉問題已經波及到就業市場，因關廠歇業非自願性失業的勞工，五年來第一次出現反轉上升的現象，任何一個心中以人民幸福為念的政治人物，都不應再忽視。

　公司家數快速萎縮，反映出台灣當前的兩大經濟隱憂：一個是創業動能的消失；一個是內需成長趨緩的痛苦。「寧為雞首，不為牛後」，曾是台灣創業精神的寫照。從王永慶、張榮發到施振榮、郭台銘一個個白手起家的故事，是無數創業者的學習對象，也是台灣奇蹟的見證。台灣蕞爾小島，卻能成為全球第三多創業投資公司的集中地，僅次於全球最大經濟體--美國，華爾街大亨的故鄉─以色列。

　但創投業在前年，實際營運家數首度減少，由二○○五年二百三十一家，減少到只剩二百一十九家。因為找不到可以投資的案子，前年創投甚至把錢還給投資人，導致全體創投資本額減少一二八億，這都是從未發生的現象。在各國經濟政策裡面，創投之所以重要，因為這象徵未來經濟的成長動能，預言還有多少人可以白手起家，再演台灣奇蹟。

　不容諱言，台灣經濟的確是在轉型的關口，從製造業往服務業走，又要抵擋大陸的磁吸效應，本來就是一項艱鉅的挑戰。但服務業不可能憑空出現，台灣要發展新加坡、香港式高附加價值的服務業，如：金融、會計等，就得像這兩個城市一樣，找到腹地市場，需要資金自由進出，卸除廠商投資上限管制的道理，其實再清楚不過。

　但實況卻是，經濟部調查，海外營收大於國內營收的企業比例已達三三％，但海外獲利只有一八％分配給國內股東，資金真正匯回的更少。吵嚷了三年多，台灣的股市國際板仍如空中樓閣，但台商在香港掛牌卻是一波又一波。

　非都市地區如：澎湖、台東、花蓮要發展觀光，觀光要朝高附加價值走，必須有專業化的經營與投入。要吸引外資或本國生意人投入，必須要有穩定的客源，絕非國民旅遊就足夠，更何況多年來，台灣一直處於腦力外流的狀態，保守預估五十萬台商定居在長江三角洲一帶，高消費力客群轉往彼岸消費。台灣內需就像水不斷外流的池塘，一直找不到新的活水澆灌，這是國內企業去年倒閉家數創新高的真正原因。

　在全球化的時代，已經沒有任何一個國家，可以單方面關起門來。更禁不起資金只出不進，人員只離不來。台商全球布局，專業管理者、中產階級遠赴異鄉打拚，不能擋也擋不了。政府就應該想辦法，在全球化的競逐中，替台灣找到新活水灌注。愛爾蘭能夠擺脫戰亂崛起，香港能夠迅速復甦，誰說台灣不能呢？

　對生活在台灣這片土地上的人民而言，沒有人想要唱衰台灣。但結結實實的數字告訴我們，包括亞力山大健身老師在內，超過十二萬非自願失業勞工告訴我們，這是再現實不過的生計問題，也是未來的隱憂。年關又要到了！誰不想過個好年呢？