Tsai Ing-wen's Challenge: Restoring DPP Morale

Tsai Ing-wen's Challenge: Restoring DPP Morale
China Times Editorial (Taipei, China)
A Translation
May 19, 2008

Not surprisingly, Tsai Ing-wen led, all the way. A clear majority of DPP members handed the future of the DPP over to Tsai Ing-wen. This is the first time the DPP has ever elected a female chairperson. Tsai Ing-wen has no experience at running party affairs. She has no campaign experience. Over the next few years, the DPP must pick itself up after a long string of defeats. This will be a difficult ordeal for both Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP.

This DPP party chairman election was highly unorthodox. The Princes of the Party did not have a showdown. Factional leaders did not engage in infighting. The new generation of Young Turks did not make waves. In the end only Koo and Tsai were left standing. These two have never been close to the power center of the DPP. They are not your usual DPP politicians. Koo Kuan-min is an older generation aristocrat and Taiwan independence hardliner. Tsai Ing-wen is a think tank academic, with some degree of expertise in policy planning. The two candidates neatly symbolize the DPP's options for its future. Namely, will the DPP cling to the Deep Green path, or take a more inclusive, more pragmatic path?

As it turns out, the DPP has chosen the latter. Tsai support crossed factional lines. Despite conflict between the Chen, Hsieh, and New Tide factions, they unanimously supported Tsai Ing-wen. This means that both the DPP elite and grass-roots are aware that notwithstanding Koo Kuan-min's credentials as Deep Green champion of Taiwan independence, the Tsai Ing-wen path is the one the DPP must take in order to have a political future.

The ruling party is about to relinquish power. Tsai Ing-wen has no "honeymoon period." The DPP she commands will face the most difficult period in its history. And circumstances may well get worse. She must immediately stop the bleeding, then lead the DPP out of the political wilderness. Frankly this is an impossible task. But Tsai Ing-wen has no time to think about any of this.

Tsai Ing-wen faces a number of difficult problems. She must heal the fissures that developed within the party as a result of the party chairman election. Nearly 40 percent of the DPP did not support her. She must swiftly unite rival factional leaders and create a unified party hierarchy in order to be an effective opposition party. She must begin the nomination process for the upcoming Mayoral and County Magistrate Elections. Above all, she must restore the DPP's morale, which has hit bottom after a long string of defeats. These goals were no problem for past party chairmen, but they are for Tsai Ing-wen, whose qualifications are limited to the halls of academia and the corridors of power.

If it were merely a matter of problem-solving, that would be one thing. But Tsai Ing-wen must deal with a number of intractable issues. First: the across the board loss of ruling party status, being completely cut off from all access to the resources of the state. Will a handful of Princes of the Party with access to resources be willing to share them with Tsai Ing-wen for the good of the party? Frankly no one knows. When Tsai Ing-wen attempts to get things done, she will face serious financial constraints. Second: many officials of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party are still face prosecution for corruption. If investigators and prosecutors find anything illegal, the DPP's image may explore new lows. Third: Princes of the Party who enjoy seniority are surely waiting to make their move. Tsai Ing-wen lacks both resources and seniority. It is surprising they have been as respectful as they have towards her. The danger is they may not show much respect for a future "President Tsai." For Tsai Ing-wen, money is short, problems are many, and nobody cares.

The only thing Tsai Ing-wen can do is rally the Best and the Brightest among the new generation of Young Turks. This group has its roots in the student movement. They have yet to be bought by special interests, and they have the gift of gab. They are the DPP's last hope. If they are able to transcend factional loyalties and work with Tsai Ing-wen, who can say they won't become a force for the party's renewal?

On the eve of May 20, as the Blue camp is mired in petty squabbles over seating protocol, once triumphant DPP officials are packing their bags, preparing to return to civilian life. The DPP fell as swiftly as it rose. The problems it needs to contemplate and confront are overwhelming. This is a reality the entire DPP leadership must confront together. To demand that Tsai Ing-wen bear this cross alone is unreasonable. How the DPP navigates this downturn is something worth watching.

蔡英文的功課：重新召喚民進黨員的熱情
中國時報 2008.05.19　

不出意外，在開票後一路領先的優勢下，絕大多數的民進黨員，終究還是將民進黨的未來交給了蔡英文。這除了是讓民進黨出現第一位女黨魁外，更意謂著一位沒有任何黨務經驗，也不曾打過任何選戰的政治新鮮人，將要在今後的幾年，領導民進黨從連續的挫敗中再站起來，不論是對蔡英文，亦或是對民進黨而言，這都將是一項艱鉅的考驗。

細數民進黨歷屆的黨主席選舉，大概沒有任何一屆有這次的競選這般「另類」。沒有天王的頂尖對決，沒有派系領袖的捉對廝殺，也未見新生世代的風起雲湧，拚到最後對決的辜蔡兩人，在昔日民進黨中長期都居於權力核心的外緣，他們也都不是傳統型的民進黨政客，辜寬敏是元老世代的士紳，對台獨有著宗教信仰般的執著；而蔡英文則是思辨型的學者出身，在政策規畫上有其專業，他們兩人的對決，恰恰好也反映了對民進黨未來兩種「想像」的抉擇：即民進黨的未來，是該選擇更進一步的擁抱深綠路線，還是邁向一個更包容、更務實的本土路線？

結果，民進黨員選擇了後者。從跨派系的動員亦可看出若干端倪，即不論扁謝新等各主流派系內部有多大的矛盾，在支持蔡英文出線上這一點倒是有志一同。這也意謂不論是民進黨的多數精英或是基層黨員都心知肚明，不論辜寬敏所標誌的深綠台獨路線有多麼的純正，蔡英文所代表的路線，才應該是民進黨應該選擇的未來。

對一個馬上就要卸下執政權力的政黨而言，蔡英文其實根本沒有所謂的蜜月期，她所接手的民進黨，恐怕是民進黨史上前所未有的最壞時刻，而且情況接下來還有可能會更糟，她必須迅速的為民進黨的挫敗傷痛止血，她更需要領導民進黨從逆境中重新再起，不諱言說，這是一項近乎不可能的任務，但此刻的蔡英文恐怕也無暇再考慮這些了。

替蔡英文算算擺在她面前的難題吧！她必須撫平黨內因為競選黨主席所埋藏的裂痕，畢竟還是有近四成的黨員並沒有挺她；她必須迅速整合各派系的精英，籌組一支黨務團隊，扮演好在野黨的角色；她也必須準備展開提名布署，以迎接接下來的縣市長選舉。最重要的是，她必須將民進黨連續遭逢挫敗後，已經跌到谷底的熱情與信心，重新再召喚出來。這些任務對過去幾屆的黨主席都不是難題，但處在此時此刻，對一個僅有學院與行政資歷的蔡英文而言，想也知道會是非常辛苦的。

如果只是單純的解決難題，那倒是還好，當下的蔡英文還面臨幾項難堪的處境：第一：執政權的全面喪失，也意謂著行政資源的支持將完全斷絕，少數還享有資源的天王或派系願不願意釋出與蔡英文「共赴黨難」，坦白說誰也沒這個把握。未來蔡英文推動黨務，在資源動員上勢必面臨嚴重財務吃緊；第二，許多民進黨執政期間的弊案或醜聞都還在追訴中，如果未來的司法偵辦再查出任何的不法，民進黨的形象還有可能再落谷底；第三，黨內具資歷與輩份的幾位天王，未來勢必各擁人馬伺機而動，他們面對資源匱乏、輩份不高的蔡英文，能維持基本的「尊重」已經是不錯了，怕的是他們未來根本不會把「蔡主席」放在眼裡。面臨這些處境，我們真的擔心，蔡英文未來會陷入「錢少事多沒人理」的境遇。

蔡英文唯一的依恃，就是看她能否有效整合起民進黨新世代的精英，這群在昔日學運崛起的世代，尚未有太多利益的牽絆，也都具備論述能力，是民進黨僅存的翻身本錢，只要他們願意捐棄派系成見，與蔡英文合作搭配，誰說不會成為一支中興的隊伍呢？

處在五二○的前夕，當藍軍還在為就職大典的「座位學」鬧意氣的同時，曾經冠蓋滿京華的民進黨大員們，都在紛紛打包行囊，退居尋常百姓家，一個迅速爆起卻又迅速崩落的政黨，需要思索與面對的課題實在是太多了，這是所有民進黨精英都必須面對的「共業」，如果都只讓蔡英文一個人來揹，真的是太沈重了，民進黨會怎麼走過這個低潮期，我們也都在拭目以待！