The New Administration's First One Hundred Days:

The New Administration's First One Hundred Days:
Just Squeaking By
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 28, 2008

The Ma administration has been in office for nearly 100 days. It has undergone three months of turmoil. President Ma Ying-jeou and Premier Liu Chao-hsuan's satisfaction ratings have rebounded significantly from a month ago. But given the larger economic picture and the market outlook, the Ma administration has little cause for joy.

According to a recent China Times poll, Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating jumped 10 percentage points, to 46 percent. Liu Chao-hsuan's approval rating also reached a new high at 42 percent. Public confidence in his administration rose to 59 percent. But 42 percent of the public remained unhappy with his cabinet's performance. Among his cabinet members, Minister of Justice Wang Ching-feng received the highest approval rating. The logical conclusion is that the Ma administration's and Liu cabinet's increased approval ratings reflect increased dissatisfaction with the Chen family's money-laundering scandals. The public supports the Ma administration primarily because they want clean government and prosecution of corruption. But the economic downturn is also a reason for the Chen Shui-bian administration's downfall. For the public on Taiwan, scandals must be investigated. But the economy must also be revived. After all, the economy is the peoples' lifeline.

Unfortunately the Council for Economic Planning has issued a "blue light" warning for July, indicating an economic recession. Leading economic indicators show an integrated score of 107.4. Since last November we have experienced nine consecutive months of decline. July export orders fell to an annual rate of only 50.52 percent. Orders from mainland China fell 1.73 percent, establishing record lows for recent years. Given these figures, one can hardly expect the public to be pleased with the government's handling of the economy.

During the Liu cabinet's first month in office, it declared its determination to implement the Ma administration's policies. It promised to increase economic growth to 6 percent. Three months later, this check has bounced. Liu Chao-hsuan admitted bluntly, "Since we cannot achieve it, all we can do is explain why not." Why isn't the economy growing as fast as predicted before the presidential election? One. Global growth is slower than expected. This includes the US subprime mortgage crisis, which has had more serious repercussions than expected. Two. Mainland tourism to Taiwan. Domestic consumption has not been as great as expected. Policies to stimulate domestic demand will require more time to take effect. Unfortunately time waits for no man. Premier Liu is a smart man. He is well aware of his situation. Ma Ying-jeou can't give Liu much more leeway during Ma's first term.

The Liu cabinet took office two months ago. It hastily responded to rising oil prices. It got its lumps attempting to curb inflation. Liu set a six month deadline for himself when he introduced his budget and policy measures. Soon afterwards, the typhoon season began. Premier Liu was forced to deal with flood control problems that have been out of control for years. He revised his six-month budget and policy plans, and started over, determined to take a longer term approach to problems. This time he gave his cabinet and the administration a one and a half year time frame. Frankly, both the six month and one and a half year time frames are bizarre and unprecedented. The Chen Shui-bian administration set for itself five year and eight year time frames, and would have preferred time frames that stretched past 2008 or even 2012.

Liu Chao-hsuan doesn't have as much time to spare. The Liu cabinet's department heads are seasoned veterans who have returned to the battlefield for one last battle. They cannot allow themselves that much time. The county magistrate and city mayor elections will be held next year. The legislative elections will be held the year after that. Premier Liu's cabinet can serve only as Ma Ying-jeou's vanguard. After that, the baton gets passed to a "Committee to Re-elect the President." But if the vanguard has nothing to show, it will be impossible for any re-election committee to win a second term. The challenges the Liu cabinet faces are daunting.

How much has the Liu cabinet done over the past three months? Actually, quite a bit. It has allowed direct cross-Strait weekend flights, something prohibited for the past eight years. It has allowed mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. It has lifted the cap on mainland-bound investments. It has allowed Taiwan businesses to return to Taiwan and list their companies on the Taiwan stock exchange. Unfortunately cross-Strait economic policy has failed to achieve the expected results. Merely loosening cross-strait restrictions on the economy has a limited impact. Does the administration have another card it can play? So far, we see nothing. Premier Liu has been in office nearly 100 days. He told the media that after the Olympics he would start anew, implementing policies much more rapidly. Premier Liu knows that if cross-Strait policy measures can be implemented more swiftly than in the past, the economic situation may improve more swiftly than originally expected. The question is, can they be? What if the mainland economy declines following the Beijing Olympics? For the moment we can't say. The only certainty is that if the Liu cabinet bases its economic performance exclusively on uncertain mainland factors, the risk is considerable.

The Ma administration's polls numbers have rebounded this month. The Legislative Yuan has adjourned. The Chen family's money-laundering scandal has erupted. The Liu cabinet is outside the storm circle. But the Legislative Yuan will convene again in September. The Liu cabinet will inevitably have to face these problems. Only alleviating the domestic and international factors behind Taiwan's economic slump will win public applause.

中國時報 　2008.08.28
百日新政 只能算勉強及格
中時社論

馬政府執政即將屆滿一百日，走過波折的三個多月，比諸前一個月的慘況，不論是馬英九總統或劉兆玄內閣的整體施政滿意度，都有明顯回升，但對比整體經濟情勢和市景情況，馬政府實在沒有太多高興的理由。

根據本報最近所做的民調，馬英九的聲望跳升十個百分點，達到四六％，閣揆劉兆玄滿意度也創下四二％的新高。同時，國人對馬政府信心增強至五九％，但還是有四二％的民眾，對行政團隊的績效感到失望。而閣員中，人氣指數最高的則是法務部長王清峰，合理推斷馬政府、劉內閣滿意度的提升，很大部分是拜扁家洗錢案所賜。清廉政府查弊肅貪，正是馬政府獲得人民支持的關鍵；但是，經濟低迷、民生不振，也是扁政府下台的原因。對台灣人民而言，弊案當然要查，但是，經濟豈能不振！畢竟經濟才是台灣的命脈。

偏偏經建會才公布的七月份景氣燈號轉入代表低迷的藍燈，其中可判斷未來景氣走勢的領先指標綜合分數一○ 七．四，是自去年十一月起，連續第九個月下滑。七月外銷訂單年增率降到只有五．五二％，來自中國大陸的訂單更遽降為一．七三％，均創下近年新低，從這些數字看來，要民眾對政府施政感到滿意，當然困難。

劉內閣就任第一個月，就表明要以落實馬政策為優先要務，三個月過去，六％經濟成長率的承諾，就是第一張的跳票。劉兆玄坦言，「達不到也只能向人民說清楚。」台灣景氣為何未如總統大選前所呈現的一派樂觀？一方面，國際情勢比預期更要走緩，包括美國次貸及二房等風波，導致後續影響比預期中嚴重；二方面，陸客來台、內需消費等都不如預期，擴大內需要相關政策措施，距離發酵出一點成果還需要時間。只是，時間不等人，劉揆是聰明人，他太清楚自己的定位，在馬英九首任任期裡，也沒有太多時間可以分配給他。

這樣說吧，劉內閣就任前兩個月，手忙腳亂因應油物價高漲，抑制通膨就讓劉揆滿頭包，當時他推出的預算和政策措施都是以「半年」為期；緊接著，颱風季節開始，劉揆又忙不迭地處理長年失控的治水大問題，修正了半年預算和政策計畫，重新調整腳步，要從「長期深耕」的角度出發，這個時候他給自己和閣員的施政計畫是以「一年半」為期。坦白講，不論是半年為期或者一年半為度，都是歷屆內閣從未有的怪現象，不要推太遠，就拿扁政府歷任閣揆來說吧，所有的施政計畫不是五年就是八年，恨不能一切計畫能橫跨二○○八，甚至二○一二。

劉兆玄沒這個時間，劉內閣裡以「老兵最後一役」而復出江湖的部會首長們，也沒給自己這個時間，面對明後年接踵而來的縣市長和立委選舉，劉內閣只能是馬英九的先鋒部隊，接下來的就得是「連任部隊」，但是，先鋒部隊若打不下成績，連任部隊想延續或創造戰果都是不可能的事，劉內閣的挑戰可想而知。

這三個月來，劉內閣做了多少事呢？其實不少，可以看到的，過去八年始終開放不了的兩岸周末直航包機、大陸觀光客來台、赴大陸投資上限，乃至台商回台掛牌上市都依序開放，但以兩岸政策為主軸思考的經濟牌，顯然沒達到預期成果。講穿了，兩岸鬆綁勢在必行，但只有兩岸鬆綁對台灣整體經濟依舊有限，政府還有沒有第二張牌？或其他配套？截至目前為止，還看不出跡象。劉揆在就任一百天前夕，接受各家媒體訪問強調奧運之後，很多東西會重新開始，有些事情會進行得更快速。簡言之，劉揆的認知裡，如果兩岸相關的政策措施能比過去三個月更加速進行，原來不如預期的景氣狀況應該就能有效改善。問題是，如果不能呢？如果中國經濟在京奧之後也開始下滑呢？所有的如果，此刻都沒有答案，唯一可確知的是，如果劉內閣把績效建立在不確定的大陸因素上，風險只會更高。

馬政府民調回升的這一個月，立法院休會，扁家洗錢案爆發，劉內閣得以在暴風圈之外，然而，九月立法院即將開議，劉內閣無可避免地還是要面對這些問題，只有有效緩解台灣經濟不振的內外因素，才能真正獲得民眾的掌聲。