Where is the Cross-Strait Express Train Headed?

Where is the Cross-Strait Express Train Headed?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 1, 2008

The Ma administration has been in office for 100 days. Its main policy prescription is the normalization of cross-Strait economic exchanges and trade policy. It has lifted one restriction after another. What exactly is the administration's goal? Is it merely what the DPP refers to as "a means of reviving the stock market?" Is it the administration's way to "stimulate domestic demand?" Or is it a more farsighted vision of an "Asian-Pacific Platform?"
On July 4, the administration made good on its first campaign promise. Weekend cross-Strait charter flights began. The first group of Mainland tourists arrived on Taiwan. Every week the Executive Yuan relaxed one restriction on cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges after another. It raised the ceiling on the percentage of overseas funds that could be invested on the Mainland. It allowed Taiwan businessmen on the Mainland to return to Taiwan and list on the TAIEX. It increased the ceiling on net investment in Mainland plants to 60%. It allowed Mainland capital to enter Taiwan. It lifted restrictions on sensitive industries investing on the Mainland. Almost everything the DPP government could not do when it was in office, has been put in the hopper.

According to Executive Yuan plans, as many as 46 different restrictions on cross-Strait economic and trade will be relaxed by the end of the year. It is not hard to see the importance of cross-Strait economic and trade policy.

The relaxation of cross-Strait restrictions was Ma Ying-jeou's main presidential campaign theme. For him to fulfill these commitments upon assuming office is perfectly natural. Cross-Strait economic and trade relations have remained stagnant since 1987. Although the public has been permitted to visit relatives on the Mainland, prohibitions against direct cross-Strait air passenger, postal, and maritime freight links have remained in place. These include the euphemistically named policies of "Avoid Haste, Be Patient" and "Effective Management, Aggressive Opening." Lifting restrictions on cross-Strait exchanges responds to the people's needs. Taiwan's economic liberalization and internationalization has not included the Mainland. Inconsistent policies have bound business hand and foot, increasing operating costs, and distorting the market process.

Normalization will correct such distortions. The Executive Yuan has played its cross-Strait opening cards fast and hard. The stock market however, has not responded in kind. The real world impact remains to be seen.

Taiwan stocks fell over 2000 points after May 20, as a result of global inflation. The new administration may complain that it is a victim of bad timing. Most of its policies involve long-term economic development and deployment. They need time to take effect. They simply cannot be rushed. But on the other hand, isn't the decision to rely too heavily on long-term policies the responsibility of policy makers? Isn't the order in which one implements short and long-term policy options, the timing, the degree to which one relaxes controls, the rate of relaxation, the assessment of the accompanying risks, and the manner in which one communicates one's decisions to the public, their responsibility? As Lai Hsing-yuan, Mainland Affairs Council chairman put it: rhythm is more important than speed when relaxing restrictions on cross-Strait policy. With the right rhythm, people will not be upset when policies suffer unexpected setbacks.

Current cross-Strait policy has speed but no rhythm. The administration is rapidly lifting restraints, but is not doing cost benefit analysis or risk assessment. This leaves people confused and anxious. Such a cross-Strait policy is like a jigsaw puzzle. Only some of the tiles are in place. One cannot tell whether it will eventually form a coherent whole. The most worrisome aspect is that if the pieces fail to add up to a coherent whole, the mess will be hard to clean up.

President Ma's blueprint for revitalizing the economy was based on lifting restrictions on economic and trade exchanges. It reconnected economic links artificially severed in the past. The Mainland is the world's factory and a major world market. Taiwan's economy would grow through the introduction of more global resources. This is a "Taiwan Platform" concept we too have long advocated. Taiwan lacks a broader market base. Therefore, in order to protect its regional role in the global economy, economic development must be export oriented. Smooth cross-Strait exchanges are essential, and must be a high priority for both Taipei and Beijing.

But this course of action has been upset by market instability. Many policies revolve around the opening of mainland capital to Taiwan, including the purchase of stocks, real estate, investment in the infrastructure, or in the Taiwan stock market. Mainland capital is seen as the savior of the Taiwan stock market, inverting cause and effect. Leave aside the fact that this is wishful thinking. Forget about political concerns. Just look at our supervisory capacity and our foreign exchange system. Maintaining orderly access to vast funds and preventing market volatility is a huge challenge. Benefits are not without harms. Mainland tourists are perceived as stimulating domestic demand. This is true, but under the current system the impact is limited. Excessive dependence leaves one vulnerable. Overly high expectations have led to a loss of policy focus.

Cross-Strait policy must not be fast at the expense of rhythm. A loss of rhythm can lead to confusion and can undermine what is basically a sound policy. The Ma administration's cross-Strait policy needs to find its proper rhythm.

兩岸開放列車要駛往何方？
【聯合報╱社論】
2008.09.01 04:05 am

馬政府上任百日，兩岸經貿往來正常化是政策主軸。一連串令人目不暇給的鬆綁、解禁、開放，究竟只是民進黨口中的「挽救股市的工具」，還是政府寄望的「擴大內需的活水」，抑或是更宏遠的「搭建亞太平台的基礎建設」？

從七月四日兌現第一張競選政策支票──兩岸周末包機起飛、大陸觀光客首發團來台迄今，行政院幾乎周周端出鬆綁兩岸經貿往來的「牛肉」，從放寬海外基金投資 大陸比重、允許大陸台商回台上市、調高企業西進投資上限至淨值六成、開放陸資來台投資、解除敏感產業登陸限制等，幾乎民進黨政府時代不能做的，全都排進放 行通道；而依行政院規劃，到年底要鬆綁的兩岸經貿規範將高達四十六項，不難看出兩岸經貿的施政分量。

從政治面看，兩岸鬆綁是馬英九競選總統時的主打，做為施政主軸以實踐承諾，原是預期中事；從實體面看，兩岸經貿關係自一九八七年政府開放大陸探親啟動以 來，儘管受到禁止三通、戒急用忍、有效管理等政策制約，依然直線成長，政策解禁實是呼應勢之所需、民之所欲；從體制面言，台灣經濟推行自由化、國際化多 年，卻獨對大陸設限，不一致的政策不只讓企業縛手縛腳而成本大增，更扭曲經濟運作形態，正常化亦是調校偏差所必然。但是，回到最期待的經濟效益，行政院的 兩岸開放牌打得又多又快，卻沒有激起股市相應的共鳴，凸顯實質效應有待觀察。

五二○後的台股，因全球通膨罩頂而一瀉二千餘點，新政府或有「時運不濟」之嘆；並因大多數政策都是為長期經濟發展而布建，需要時間發酵，急不來也不必急。 但反過來想，長短期政策的選擇順序、開放時機、鬆綁幅度、推出速度，及其對應的風險配套、社會溝通等，不正是要依賴政策制定者的智慧，因時因地因勢制其宜 嗎？這就像陸委會主委賴幸媛所言：兩岸開放政策的推出「節奏比速度重要」，節奏恰當，當政策魚貫而出，民眾才不會感到唐突。

現在的兩岸政策，卻是只見速度，沒有節奏；只有快速的鬆綁、解禁、放寬，卻沒有效益分析、風險評估、考核機制，令人不明所以，甚至透著不安。這樣的兩岸政 策猶如大拼圖，只見零散的圖塊，不知能否拼成全圖，也不知最後會拼出何種全圖；最令人憂慮者，若是只有碎片，而無全景，那就難以收拾了。

一開始，馬總統的活力經濟藍圖，是以解除對大陸經貿往來的禁令為主，將昔日人為切斷的經濟鏈結接通，透過中國大陸這個世界工廠及世界市場的經濟地位，讓台 灣經濟得以引入更多的全球資源而成長。這也是我們長期主張的台灣平台概念，因為台灣內部缺乏廣大的市場腹地，經濟發展必須高度外向，以所能提供的國際經濟 區域機能安身立命；而暢通的兩岸往來是絕對必備的機能，正應是兩岸開放的重心。

但是，這個方向已因股市不穩而出現偏移，眾多政策圍繞開放陸資來台打轉，無論是購買股票房地產、投資基礎建設或在台上市，似乎將陸資視為台灣股市的救星， 反客為主。先不說這是未可操之在我的一廂情願，也不談可能的政治顧慮，僅以現有監理能力及外匯體制而言，如何維持龐大資金的有序進出而不致帶來市場動盪， 就是一項極大挑戰，遑論其亦非百利而無一害。另一個偏移，是將大陸觀光客視為擴大內需的活水，這個效果是有，但在現制下不大，而過度依賴之後也須防受制於 人之害，但高度的期待已令政策失焦。

兩岸政策不能「只有速度而無節奏」。節奏的偏移會導致政策的走位，減損政策效果，甚至破壞整體的布局。馬政府的兩岸政策需要重新校正，並好好找一找節奏感了。