A Japanese Master Recites the Scriptures for the DPP

A Japanese Master Recites the Scriptures for the DPP
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 17, 2009

Renowned Japanese futurist Kenichi Omae has accepted an invitation from the United Daily News to visit Taiwan in the near future. On the eve of his visit, he agreed to an interview with this paper. He reiterated his predictions for the Chinese mainland, and the challenges and opportunities they might present for Taiwan.
Omae pointed out that by 2010, Mainland China's economy would overtake Japan's. It would become the world's second largest economy. By 2055 it would be ten times as larger than today. Of course, Mainland China's economy is not without defects. Omae pointed out that in many sectors Mainland China is not doing as well as India. As for Taiwan, he believes Taipei must establish a "symbiotic relationship" with Beijing. Otherwise it will be forced to step aside.

Omae's observations can be divided into two categories. One. Explore trends relating to Mainland China's rise. Two. Determine Taiwan's long term responses. Of course longer term predictions can become colored by subjective judgments and speculations. Perhaps we can try to understand the context of his reasoning, without getting too fixated on the details. For example, 2055 is 46 years away. During this period economic growth, global warming, and population growth may affect the size of Mainland China's economy. In any event, the rate of Mainland China's economic growth is staggering. Omae recommends that Taipei think in terms of a confederation with Beijing. In the future, along with Tibet and Xinjiang, Taiwan may become a "Ten Percent Nation" on Mainland China's periphery. This is an example of Omae's creative thinking. It may be too early to lock ourselves into the framework of a confederation. But seeking a political solution for Taiwan is a challenge that cannot be avoided.

We may have different ideas about political and economic developments in 30 or 40 years. But in the short-term, given its immediate and pressing problems of survival and development, Taipei has little room to maneuver. Mainland China's economy will soon surpass Japan's, becoming Asia's largest economy. Under ASEAN plus One and ASEAN plus Three regional trade arrangements, nearly every nation with East Asian regional relations with Taipei will form alliances, and become part of an East Asian free trade zone. ASEAN plus Three members long ago began negotiating treaties over a variety of service industries and investments. When these treaties gradually start to come into effect in 2010, nearly every East Asian nation will become a Mainland Chinese factory and market "satellite." If we insist on staying outside this "economic galaxy," we will become the abandoned infant of the Asian economy, with no room whatsover for survival.

Omae said that for Taipei to be negotiating ECFA with Beijing now is already five years too late. If Taipei had faced the threat posed by ASEAN plus Three earlier, and abandoned its "No Haste, Be Patient" path sooner, it would still have room for strategic planning. We could still have given full play to the strengths of our industry. We could still have taken advantage of the many opportunities on Mainland China. But because we misjudged the situation at the time, we must now rely upon ECFA to obtain "Early Harvest" provisions from Beijing. Such aarly harvests mean that other countries are already enjoying the fruits of economic exchanges and free trade. All Taipei can do now is beg others to share and share alike. We long ago lost the chance to have our own exclusive share. Omae's remark about stepping aside confirms that the policy of "No Haste, Be Patient" was a mistake.

Of course, close interaction with Beijing is not without risks. Warnings issued by some of our friends in the Democratic Progressive Party may be closer to reality than the thinking of some KMT politicians. At worst, Beijing is certainly thinking in terms of using businessmen to beseige the government. It may be attempting to drive Taipei into desperate straits. We must not of course forget for a moment the risks involved in cross-Strait exchanges. But even more, we must not refuse to engage in cross-Strait exchanges merely because we suspect the other side's motives. The biggest blunder committed by Democratic Progressive Party officials is to jump from the observation that the other side is unfriendly, to the conclusion that we must refuse any contact with them, and must impose a Closed Door Policy. The public on Taiwan must recognize the potential risk of stepping into an economic trap set by Beijing. But even more, it must understand the risks to our economic survival posed by Taipei's economic Closed Door Policy under the ASEAN plus Three framework. If we do not engage in trade and economic exchanges with Beijing, the ASEAN plus Three countries will soon tell Taipei to step aside. What will Taipei do then? Once we find ourselves at an economic and trade impasse, our economy will decline. When that time comes, what will become of our ability to resist Beijing's demands? The Democratic Progressive Party constantly worries about Beijing using business to promote reunification. But if Taipei loses its economic power, what will happen to its political situation?

Omae pointed out that only when one has ensured one's economic survival, can one begin to explore one's political options. A foreign monk has offered his wisdom on cross-Strait economic and trade relations. The content of his sermon was down to earth. The tone of his sermon was low keyed. One can only hope that common sense, normally obliterated by Taiwan independence fundamentalism, will be given the chance to open a few eyes and ears.

日本和尚念經給民進黨聽
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.07.17 06:42 am


日本知名「趨勢大師」大前研一受本報系之邀即將來台訪問。他在訪台前夕接受本報專訪，再次談起他對中國大陸發展的預期，以及台灣可能的挑戰與機會。

大前指出，中國大陸的經濟規模即將在二○一○年超越日本，成為全世界第二大經濟體，更將在二○五五年擴張為目前的十倍。當然，中國經濟絕不是沒有缺點；大 前指出，在許多產業制高點的掌握上，中國還不如印度做得好。至於台灣的出路，他認為台灣必須想辦法與中國大陸「共生」，否則將來只有「靠邊站」。

大前的觀點可以切割成兩個面向解讀。其一是探討未來中國大陸繼續崛起的趨勢，其二則是就長期而言來計議台灣可能的因應方向。當然，太長期的發展多少都滲入 個人主觀的判斷與猜測，大家或可嘗試理解其推理脈絡，卻不必太計較細節。例如，從現在到二○五五年還有四十六年，其間經濟成長率的假想、全球暖化的程度、 人口成長的預估等，在在都會影響中國經濟的規模；唯無論如何，中國經濟的發展趨勢是驚人的。再如，大前建議台灣往「邦聯」的架構去思考，將來可能與西藏、 新疆等都成為中共周邊「百分之十」的國家，也是他的創意思維。我們固然不宜太早將自己鎖定在邦聯的框架下，但必須為台灣尋思可能的政治出路亦是無法迴避的 挑戰。

我們雖然可以對三、四十年後的政經發展情勢有諸多不同的情境設想，但是坦白地說：台灣對於短期的、迫在眉睫的生存發展問題，卻沒有多少轉圜的空間。中國大 陸經濟規模不但即將超越日本，成為亞洲最大的經濟體，而且在東協加一與加三的區域貿易安排之下，幾乎所有與台灣有東亞地緣關係的國家都將相互結盟，成為東 亞自由貿易區。除此之外，東協加三的成員也早就在談判各種服務業與投資互惠協定。等到這些條約在二○一○年起開始逐步生效，則東亞諸國幾乎全數成為中國大 陸工廠與市場的「衛星」。此時我們如果堅持要留在此一「經濟星系」之外，台灣將如亞洲經濟之棄嬰，絕對沒有生存的空間。

大前說，台灣現在與中共談判ＥＣＦＡ，其實已經晚了至少五年。如果早些正視東協加三的威脅、早些走出戒急用忍的歧路，台灣還有不少的布局機會，尚能充分發 揮我們的產業優勢，在中國大陸取得若干先機。正因為當初誤判局勢，才會落得今天要靠ＥＣＦＡ向中共爭取「早期收穫」條款的地步。蓋早期收穫就表示別國已然 預期享有的經貿果實，台灣只能拜託別國讓我們「一起分享」，早已不存在「獨自享受」的空間。大前「靠邊站」的結論，也正印驗了戒急用忍的政策錯誤。

當然，與中國大陸密切互動不是沒有風險的，這一點民進黨朋友所提出的警告，恐怕比部分國民黨政治人物的憧憬還要更接近現實。往壞處想，中共當然是心裡想著 「以商圍政」、腦子裡也許確實有「謀我日亟」的圖謀。我們對於兩岸交往的或有風險當然不能須臾或忘，但是更不能因為對岸可能的心懷鬼胎就拒絕往來。民進黨 政治人物所犯的最大錯誤，就是從「對岸不友善」的觀察，不假思索地跳躍到「不與對岸往來」的鎖國結論。台灣人民確應認清踏進中共經濟圈套的風險，但更要理 解台灣鎖國經濟在東協加三架構下的生存危機。如果我們不與中共經貿往來，以至於東協加三等經貿國家都向台灣說「請靠邊站」時，台灣究竟還有什麼活路？一旦 我們經貿沒有出路、經濟衰敗蕭條，到時候究竟我們對中共還有多少抗拒的條件與能力？民進黨人老是擔心對岸「以商促統」，但如果真的在經濟上喪失了實力，台 灣在政治上的處境又豈堪設想？

大前指出了台灣的經濟「生存」之路：謀得生存之後，台灣才能逐步折衝政治的空間。外來和尚談兩岸經貿，其內容平實、語調不高亢，只希望能對平日智慧受到遮蔽的基本教義派，能有些振聾啟瞶的作用。