ECFA: Multivitamin Formula for Taiwan's Economy

ECFA: Multivitamin Formula for Taiwan's Economy
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 23, 2010

Negotiations over the cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) have begun. The contents of the "early harvest" list have gradually emerged. As one can imagine, some items were not included. Or else they were included, but the items were not manufactured by that many companies. This led to much dissatisfaction. Take the petrochemical industry. Wang Wen-yuan, CEO of the industry leading Formosa Plastics Group said "It's so sad, I'm almost in tears." Don't even mention "Boss Lai," whom President Ma Ying-jeou cited during the Two Yings Debate. If his company fails to benefit from ECFA, he won't be sad. He'll commit suicide by smashing his head into a wall.

During the Two Yings Debate, the most impressive aspect of President Ma's performance was his reference to living, breathing industry heads. When President Ma visited Boss Lai's factory in Taichung, Lai told him that if machine tool exports are good, our workers' jobs will be secure. If exports are poor, our workers' will be negatively impacted. DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen asserted that not signing ECFA would lead to a less than 1% difference in tariffs. President Ma made a point of refuting her. He said Boss Lai told him the difference in tariffs for the machine tool industry would be a whopping 8%! Invoking Boss Lai allowed the president to gain quite a few debating points. But because he was the only concrete example cited during the entire debate, Boss Lai in effect became the star of the Two Yings Debate. It was widely assumed that Boss Lai's machine tools would be included on the ECFA early harvest list, and become one of the major players.

To everyones' surprise automotive, petrochemical, and machine tools did not appear on the early harvest list during the third round of cross-strait negotiations as expected. The automotive parts section did not include "assembled vehicles." The industry is disappointed. But at this stage measures relating to liberalization are extremely complex. They include quota allocations, the coordination of regulations, the determination of local content rates. None of these can be determined in such a short period of time. Take the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), for example. Parts and assemblies must include 62.5% local content before they may be sold. Taiwan clearly cannot achieve this standard. The scale and capacity of the mainland's automobile production far exceeds that of Taiwan. Full liberalization would leave Taiwan companies unable to compete. For Taiwan the WTO model of quota management and gradual opening is actually more favorable and less stressful. Therefore industry heads can probably accept the removal of the automotive industry from the first phase list. Can Taiwan's automotive industry achieve international competitiveness? Can it emerge from its limited and weak situation in Taiwan's market? ECFA provides an important opportunity. We can proceed slowly, but not too slowly.

One week remains between now and the siging of ECFA, scheduled for the end of June. Both sides are preparing for begin the fourth round of consultations. In response to industry disappointment, Premier Wu Den-yih explained. The petrochemical industry originally proposed 111 items. Agreements have already been reached on 94 of them. Items not included constitute a small part of the whole. Over a dozen machine tool items are already included on the early harvest list. According to senior party and government sources, our side has already proposed a 38 item early harvest list. Among them, eight machine tool industry items and one petrochemical industry item may be included. Petrochemicals and machine tools are Taiwan's strengths. Of course the mainland will object. The best thing to do is to wait for the final outcome.

In any bilateral economic and trade negotiations, each side always fights for its own interests and attempts to minimize any potential losses or negative impacts. For industry heads, these are commercial interests that must be fought for. For the Republic of China government, they include undeniable political as well as economic interests. This is especially true during election season, when ECFA has become a political football. The DPP, the Taiwan Solidarity Union and "nativist" pressure groups are preparing an anti-ECFA protest march this weekend. If the early harvest list is not as favorable as expected, "nativist" pressure groups will feel even more justified in their opposition. Former supporters may wonder, if the government failed to obtain the best terms possible, what was it all for?

Famed management guru Kenichi Ohmae spoke at the presidential palace last month. He said ECFA is a multivitamin formula that can strengthen Taiwan's economy. Even Japan is concerned. ECFA and FTAs allow businesses on Taiwan to compete on a level playing field. Next year is critical, and will decide whether businesses on Taiwan can ascend to the world stage. The matter is urgent and requires immediate action. Originally Ohmae did not think consultations between Taiwan and the mainland would come to much. But mainland China has demonstrated considerable patience. Therefore ECFA offers many incentives for Taiwan. Taiwan can become a hub for Greater China. Even if it does not become an airline hub, it can become a business hub. According to Ohmae Taiwan need not worry about excessive reliance on the mainland. All Asian countries are in the same boat. One could even say that Taiwan is using its advantages to take the lead.

Taiwan's advantages are geographical, economic, and to some extent political. In the face of strong international competition and irreversible cross-Strait developments, one must seize the moment. One must seek a satisfactory result for a majority of the people. If the results are not as expected, then one of the greatest achievements of the Ma administration may instead become one of its worst liabilities, and negatively impact the year end five cities mayoral elections. The negotiating team must remain vigilant and put out its best effort.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2010.06.23
社論－ECFA是精心調製維他命 可補台灣經濟
本報訊

隨著兩岸磋商經濟合作架構協議（ＥＣＦＡ）展開，列入早收清單的項目陸續出爐。可想而知，部分沒納入、或納入但品項並不太多的業者，大為跳腳；以石化業為例，龍頭台塑集團總裁王文淵都表示，「很傷心，快要哭出來」；更甭提曾經被馬英九總統在雙英辯論援引為例子的工具機業者「賴老闆」，萬一沒能因為ＥＣＦＡ獲利，大概不只傷心，還會想撞牆了。

雙英辯論中，馬總統表現最讓人印象深刻的就是舉出他實際拜訪業者的例子。馬總統拜訪的就是工廠位在台中的賴老闆，賴老闆告訴總統，工具機出口好，員工生計就好，出口差就受影響；馬總統還特別反駁民進黨主席蔡英文所稱簽不簽ＥＣＦＡ差別只在平均零點幾的關稅，同樣以賴老闆告訴他的工具機關稅一差就是百分之八！因為賴老闆，讓總統辯論生色不少，也因為全場辯論會只有這麼一個具體案例，讓「賴老闆」幾乎成為雙英辯論會的最佳男主角。一般預期，賴老闆所屬的工具機，也會成為兩岸簽署ＥＣＦＡ的早收清單中，必然會出現的主角之一。

沒想到，兩岸第三次磋商早收清單，汽車、石化、工具機都不如預期。汽車部分，未將「整車」納入清單，業者雖然失望，但由於現階段有關開放的相關配套措施，非常複雜，從配額的調配，法規的融合，到自製率的認定等，都不是短時間能完成。以北美自由貿易區為例，產品零組件必須達到區域內採購佔百分之六十二點五，才能上場，台灣顯然還達不到這個標準。同時，大陸市場規模和車廠的產能都遠遠在台灣之上，萬一全面開放，台灣業者難有立足之地，對台灣而言，採用ＷＴＯ模式，配額管理、逐年開放，反而是降低衝擊比較有利的做法；因此，業者大抵能接受汽車與第一階段開放清單脫勾。但是，台灣車輛工業能否建立國際競爭力，擺脫台灣小而弱的市場現況，ＥＣＦＡ是重要的契機，就算慢，也不能拖太久。

距離六月底簽署ＥＣＦＡ的既定時程，還有一星期，兩岸也準備展開第四次磋商。對業者的失望，行政院長吳敦義說明，石化業原本提出一百一十一項，已經同意納入的有九十四項，沒納入的其實是產量較小的部分；至於工具機則已有十幾項納入早收清單。據黨政高層人士透露，在上述已納入部分，台灣已經再提出卅八項早收清單，其中有八項工具機和一項石化業有機會納入，由於石化和工具機都是台灣的強項，大陸方面難免還有意見，還是得看最後關頭的磋商結果而定。

任何雙邊經貿談判，都免不了為自己爭取最大利益，減少最多可能的損失和衝擊。對業者而言，牽涉到行業利益，非爭不可；對台灣整體而言，除了經濟，無可諱言，還有政治上的利害。尤其是ＥＣＦＡ議題已成為選舉焦點話題之一，包括民進黨、台聯及本土社團準備在周未舉行反ＥＣＦＡ大遊行，如果早收清單不如業界預期，則更讓本土社團認為反對有理，原本支持者也容易懷疑，如果沒能爭取到最大利益，那麼所為何來？

誠如日本知名策略大師大前研一在總統府月會演講所言，ＥＣＦＡ是精心調製的維他命，可為台灣補經濟，包括日本都非常關切。從ＥＣＦＡ到ＦＴＡ，讓台灣能在公平競爭場域競爭，明年就是關鍵期，台灣能否攀升到世界舞台，刻不容緩，應立刻採取行動。過去，他從不預期台灣和大陸的磋商會有太好的成果，但是中國大陸卻表現相當的耐心，因此未來台灣有很多誘因可以成為大中華區的樞紐，即使不是航空的樞紐，卻肯定可以成為企業的樞紐，台灣也不必擔心過度依賴中國大陸，因為所有的亞洲國家都是如此，事實上，「台灣是利用優勢打前鋒。」

台灣的優勢有地理上的、經濟上的、某種程度還有政治上的。面對強勁的國際競爭，以及不可逆轉的兩岸關係，關鍵時刻只能全力拚搏，非爭到一個相對讓多數民眾滿意的結果不可；如果未如預期，這個馬政府引以為傲最大政績之一，反而可能成為年底五都選舉的最大地雷。談判隊伍不可不慎，不可不勉力為之！