James Soong, Why Not Run For President?

James Soong, Why Not Run For President?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 29, 2011

James Soong recently made a bold move. To understand his motives, we must consider the impact of his move on the January 2012 two-in-one election and on the future of the Republic of China.

James Soong said his goal was to win three seats for the People First Party in the Legislative Yuan, and to form a three man PFP party caucus. Does the PFP have the ability to form a three man PFP party caucus? This is not necessarily the key to the political future of the ROC. The question being asked of voters in the current election is, should they remain loyal to the Republic of China and the Republic of China Constitution? Should the government maintain its current cross-Strait policy? Or should it adopt an entirely different strategic policy path? Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen represent two vastly different policy paths. Therefore this election has enormous significance for the future of the ROC, The issues are, should the ROC change its strategic path? Should the ROC change its president? Should the president elect change the strategic path of the ROC, via the Legislative Yuan? The issue is not whether the PFP can form a three man PFP party caucus.

If James Soong runs for president, in the hope of influencing the strategic direction of the ROC, he is well within his rights. How well he can do in the election is not the issue, But suppose he is unable to offer a strategic direction that transcends those offered by Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen? Suppose his goal is merely to stir up the pot, or to establish a three man PFP party caucus? Never mind whether he has the ability. If that is his goal, he is not justified in doing so. Because the question of whether to adopt a new strategic direction transcends the question of whether the PFP is able to form a three man PFP party caucus. Is James Soong's real goal to alter the strategic direction of the ROC? If it is not, then stirring the pot and forming a three man PFP party caucus hardly justifies what he is doing.

What is the purpose of forming a three man PFP party caucus? Is it to enable the DPP's Chou Po-ya to become Deputy Speaker of the Taipei City Council? Is it to enable the Legislative Yuan to make Chen Tsung-ming Prosecutor General? Is it to pave the way for a "Tsai/Soong Meeting," as a follow up to the "Bian/Soong Meeting?" Is it to enable a three man PFP party caucus to play the role of a decisive minority in the legislature? What will the strategic impact on the nation and society be? Suppose Soong's move subverts the strategic picture? Suppose it changes our strategtic direction? Is that James Soong's real goal?

Soong obviously opposes Ma and hates Ma. But he is unwilling to be honest about his motives. This is why James Soong keeps advancing reasons for what he is doing. James Soong can run for president. All he needs to do is launch a petition drive. Green Camp voters will automatically, spontaneously support his candidacy. His candidacy will be assured. No matter what the outcome of the election is, no matter whether Soong wins or Tsai wins, Soong will have fulfilled his goal. He will have exacted revenge on Ma Ying-jeou. James Soong is not running for president. But he is still splitting Blue Camp votes. If he runs for president with the express intention of stirring the pot, Soong will become Blue Camp Public Enemy Number One, He can forget about any three man PFP party caucus. If the People First Party fields candidates for the legislature left and right, it will be publicly admitting that it is merely stirring the pot, that it is not running for office, but merely acting as a spoiler.

James Soong is opposed to Ma and angry at Ma. But he cannot deny the success of Ma Ying-jeou's strategic path. If the PFP considers Ma Ying-jeou's strategic path to be generally correct, why must it set up a three man PFP party caucus? Why must it deliberately create chaos and wreak havoc? What justification does it have? What reasons can it offer? James Soong may be unhappy with King Pu-tsung, But that is no reason to create chaos and subvert the strategic picture.

James Soong's actions are destructive rather than constructive. He hopes merely to foil Ma Ying-jeou's bid for a second term, or to hurt him in the legislative elections, all for the sake of his three man PFP party caucus. His approach is to split the Blue Camp, to wrap his fingers around Ma Ying-jeou's neck. The inevitable result would be a windfall for Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP, Tsai could topple Ma as president. The DPP could gain control of the Legislative Yuan. The election could change the nation's helmsman, and the nation's strategic direction. No one is suggesting that James Soong cannot support Tsai Ing-wen. No one can forbid James Soong to meet with Ah-Bian. But Soong must explain his reasons for bringing down Ma Ying-jeou and helping up Tsai Ing-wen. Does he really think that a three man PFP party caucus, in exchange for subverting the strategic direction of the ROC, constitutes a reasonable political trade off?

James Soong may wish to distinguish between his path and Ma Ying-jeou's, He may wish to advance his own strategic vision. Ma Ying-jeou advocates "no [immediate] reunification." The PFP may choose to advocate "reunification," in the hope of attracting votes from elderly veterans. But can James Soong really champion reunification merely by forming a three man PFP party caucus? And if the final result is that Ma steps down and Tsai steps up, will Tsai's positions on national identity, constitutional allegiance, and cross-Strait policy more closely approximate those held by elderly veterans? Is this not a fraud perpetrated upon elderly veterans?

Besides, consider the worst case scenario. The KMT loses its legislative majority, Ma Ying-jeou loses his bid for reelection. The PFP fails in its attempt to form a three man PFP party caucus.

Ma Ying-jeou's record is far from satisfactory. Tsai Ing-wen's record is not without its achievements. The biggest difference between the two has nothing to do with their public images, but with their strategic paths. If James Soong runs for president, and defeats both Ma and Tsai, he may be able to influence the ROC's strategic direction. But if Soong cannot defeat Ma and Tsai, he must choose between two strategic paths, the KMT's and the DPP's. He must choose between Ma and Tsai. This is a choice each and every voter must make in the general election of January next year. James Soong is no exception. Any three man PFP party caucus must also have a strategic direction.

During next year's elections, the strategic direction of the ROC is more important than any personal grudges. It is more important than 2.4 billion NT, It is more important than any three man PFP party caucus. No one is saying that James Soong cannot subvert the strategic picture, and bring down Ma Ying-jeou. But Soong must make clear whether this is what he really wants. Is James Soong really concerned about three seats in the Legislative Yuan? Or is he merely attempting to subvert the strategic picture? If he is really concerned about three seats in the Legislative Yuan, he does not need to create so much chaos. He should be able to achieve his purpose some other way.

Is James Soong not running for president, but merely attempting to bring down Ma Ying-jeou? Or is James Soong running for president, in order to bring down Ma Ying-jeou? Either way, the results will be exactly the same. In which case, James Soong might as well run for president. Because if Soong runs for president and brings down Ma, Soong might just win. This might make a meaningful difference to the strategic path taken by the ROC.

James Soong opposes Ma and hates Ma. But he must not allow his feelings to overwhelm his concern for the future of the ROC.

宋楚瑜何不選總統
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.07.29

欲解釋宋楚瑜這些日子裡的大動作，應先看明年一月的二合一選舉對台灣未來有何意義。

宋楚瑜說，將以親民黨當選三席立委在立院組成黨團為目標。但親民黨之能否成立三人黨團，未必是這次選舉能否影響台灣未來的政治槓桿。這次選舉的主要意義是在：現行「國憲認同／兩岸政策」的「全局路線」是否仍要繼續，或者改變為另一套截然不同的「全局路線」，而馬英九及蔡英文是這兩套迥然而異的政策路線的代表人。因而，這次選舉對台灣未來的最大意義，在於是否要改變「全局路線」，亦即是否要換總統，並使當選的總統能透過立法院執行其「全局路線」，而不在親民黨能否在立院成立三人黨團。

基於此一看法，宋楚瑜若是參選總統，欲對「全局路線」發生影響，則他無論怎麼做，皆有正當性。但他若不能對「全局路線」提出超越馬蔡二人的主張，卻作出要攪動「全局」的姿態，或以成立「三人黨團」（不論後來能否成立）為目標，最後則因而產生了顛覆全局的效果，那即未必具有正當性。因為，「全局」存廢的問題，大於親民黨能否成立「三人黨團」的問題。除非「顛覆全局」就是宋楚瑜的真正目標，否則，若以「顛覆全局」交換「親民黨三人黨團」，這豈符合比例原則？

親民黨成立「三人黨團」有何作用？是要如在台北市議會選民進黨周柏雅為副議長？或是要如在立院護航陳聰明出任檢察總長？還是要繼「扁宋會」後再演出「蔡宋會」？倘若親民黨的「三人黨團」仍然演出此類的「關鍵少數」，將對國家社會的「全局路線」有何意義？且倘因此而「顛覆全局」，改變了「全局路線」，是否亦是宋楚瑜的真正追求？

明明是反馬仇馬，卻又不老實說反馬仇馬，這是宋楚瑜左支右絀的原因。宋楚瑜可以選總統，只要他發動連署，綠營選民就會自動自發地成全他，將他送上壘，輕而易舉；而選舉的結果，不論蔡上或宋上，皆可實現反馬仇馬的目的。但宋楚瑜卻不會選總統，因為他要拉的仍是泛藍的票，若參選總統表明志在「顛覆全局」，則宋將成泛藍公敵，恐連「三人黨團」也不必選了。何況，親民黨「遍地烽火」式地提名區域立委，已經公開言明只是「破壞組」，不在當選，而在攪局。

宋此時的情緒是反馬仇馬，他卻不可能否定馬英九在「全局路線」的大體成就；然而，倘若親民黨也認為馬英九的「全局路線」大體正確，則為了成立「三人黨團」，擺出這種不惜掀桌鬧場、玉石俱焚的架式，正當性何在？合理性何在？宋楚瑜可以不悅金溥聰，但那與應否掀桌鬧場、顛覆全局是兩回事。

宋楚瑜擺出的姿態是「成事不足，敗事有餘」，也就是欲在總統大選或立院選舉「拖垮馬英九」，來換取他的「三人黨團」。他的手法是分裂泛藍、掐住馬英九的脖子；其必然的效應則是有利於蔡英文及民進黨，因此就可能造成蔡上馬下或立院易手的結果，亦即改變了大選後台灣「全局路線」的掌舵者。絕不是說宋楚瑜不能支持蔡英文，正如無人可以反對「扁宋會」；但宋楚瑜必須說明，在全局思考上，為何他認為應當「拖下馬英九」及「拱上蔡英文」？難道他認為以「親民黨三人黨團」換來顛覆台灣「全局路線」的後果，也是正當合理的政治買賣？

當然，宋楚瑜也可能進一步與馬英九作路線區隔，提出他的「全局論述」；日前已放話稱馬英九「不統」，親民黨可主張「統一」，欲藉此吸引老兵票。然而，宋楚瑜難道只憑「三人黨團」就想主張「統一」？而倘若最後造成馬下蔡上的結果，則蔡的「國憲認同／兩岸政策」難道比馬更接近「老兵」的思考？這豈不是自欺又欺老兵？

何況，最極端的情況將是：國民黨失去了立院多數，也拖垮了馬英九，但親民黨的「三人黨團」也未選上。

馬英九的表現當然未盡如人意，蔡英文的表現亦有可以肯定處；二人的差異或許不在形象，而是在「全局路線」。宋楚瑜若是競選總統，勝過馬蔡，即可掌握台灣未來的「全局路線」；但若不能，他即應在國民黨及民進黨兩條「全局路線」中作出判斷，亦即必須在馬蔡之間作出選擇。這是每一選民在明年一月大選皆須面對的抉擇，宋楚瑜不可能自外於此，「三人黨團」也不能沒有「全局路線」。

明年的選舉，全局路線大於個人恩怨，大於二點四億，大於三人黨團。絕非說宋楚瑜不可有顛覆全局、拖垮馬英九的想法，而只是說宋楚瑜必須想清楚他是否真要追求這種後果。如果宋楚瑜要的只是三席立委，而不是要顛覆全局，其實不必如此翻天覆地，而應有其他軟著陸的途徑。

宋楚瑜不選總統而想要拖垮馬英九，它的效應其實與宋楚瑜若參選總統而拖垮馬英九是完全一樣的。那麼，宋楚瑜何不選總統？因為，宋不選而拖垮馬就是蔡當選，但宋參選而拖垮馬卻也有可能是宋自己當選；此就台灣未來的「全局路線」言，看來還是有差別的。

宋楚瑜反馬仇馬的情緒，不可淹溺了他慎擇台灣未來「全局路線」的理智。