Tsai Ing-wen Must Answer Chen Shui-bian

Tsai Ing-wen Must Answer Chen Shui-bian
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 27, 2011

Chen Shui-bian has publicly asked two questions, and is now awaiting Tsai Ing-wen's answer.

The first question is: Tsai Ing-wen, if you are elected president, will you grant me amnesty? Chen Shui-bian recently penned an article entitled "Yingluck Shinawatra Wins on Her Brother's Behalf." He said former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was forced into exile when charges of corruption were leveled against him. His sister Yingluck ran for parliament in his place. She did not distance herself from Thaksin. She acknowledged and affirmed Taksin's achievements. She openly advocated "amnesty for convicted political prisoners." As a result, she won the election and became prime minister. Chen Shui-bian said this is why Tsai Ing-wen should not distance herself from him. He said "distancing herself from me will only lead to defeat." Chen Shui-bian said Yingluck never denied she was "Thaksin's clone." Therefore Tsai Ing-wen should "replicate Yingluck's experience." Chen went on and on. But Chen Shui-bian's real question was "Tsai Ing-wen, do you intend to pardon me, Chen Shui-bian?"

The second question is, "Tsai Ing-wen, why not promise that if elected, you will abolish ECFA?" Chen Shui-bian said the issue of "Taiwan's primacy and national identity," and even the termination of ECFA, are questions that cannot be avoided. These remarks were of course directed at Tsai Ing-wen, who has been studiously avoiding them. Chen Shui-bian feels they must be "confronted directly." He feels she must "dominate the issue and seize the initiative." Chen Shui-bian and Chen Chih-chung have both expressed their views on the matter. Once Tsai Ing-wen is elected, asssuming Beijing does not preempt by terminating ECFA first, then "President Tsai" should do so. Chen said that provisions for the termination of ECFA by either Beijing or the Democratic Progressive Party, is a question that cannot be avoided. Chen went on and on. But Chen's real question was, "Tsai Ing-wen, why not promise that if elected you will abolish ECFA?"

Will Tsai pardon Chen Shui-bian? Will Tsai abolish ECFA? These are questions most people would like to ask Tsai Ing-wen. Today, these questions have been asked by Chen Shui-bian. Naturally she is under increased pressure to respond. These are questions that Tsai Ing-wen must not evade and cannot evade.

For Chen Shui-bian, this was an audacious move that took everyone by surprise. Tsai Ing-wen is under the gun, both inside and outside her party. Logically speaking, Chen Shui-bian should be easing any pressure on Tsai Ing-wen. He should not become the straw that breaks the camel's back. He should wait until after Tsai Ing-wen is elected to bring up such matters. Yet Chen Shui-bian has deliberately chosen this chaotic moment to raise two issues that could impact Tsai Ing-wen's election prospects. What is he doing, but intentionally making life difficult for Tsai?

He has two possible motives for doing this. One. Chen Shui-bian may think that people within the Green Camp have strong feelings about ECFA and a presidential pardon. If Tsai fails to respond to these people, she may find it dfficult to generate any political momentum. Two. Chen Tsai Ing-wen may feel a need to force Tsai Ing-wen to take a stand before the election. On the one hand this would force Tsai to keep her campaign promises. On the other hand this would give him an opportunity to endorse Tsai's candidacy. That way, if Tsai is elected, she will be obliged to fulfill her campaign promises. The act of pardoning Chen will also be given greater legitimacy.

But when confronted with the two questions, Tsai Ing-wen remains hesitant. Will she pardon Chen Shui-bian? Her answers are, "This is a serious matter" and "This is something everyone on Taiwan must contemplate." What sort of answer is that? In response to questions about terminating ECFA, she first said that ECFA "pandered to [Mainland] China and sold out Taiwan." Later she said it "forfeited our sovereignty and humiliated our nation." She said, "one option would be to hold a referendum." She said she "would not rule out having the Legislative Yuan take another look at the law." Finally she said she "would continue the previous administration's cross-Strait policy." Again, what sort of answer is that?

Is Tsai Ing-wen like Yingluck Shinawatra? Consider the current situation. Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, Koo Kwan-min, and the Taiwan independence movement have taken Tsai Ing-wen hostage. Tsai Ing-wen has even declared that "people in southern Taiwan feel that a president who represents the Taiwanese people has been hunted relentlessly and persecuted politically." Is this not an expression of support? Does she not resemble Yingluck Shinawatra? Not really. Tsai Ing-wen has yet to fully endorse the Chen regime's eight years in office. Instead, she continues to stress "Taiwan Next," and "taking responsibility for the future." She has not publicly promised to pardon Chen Shui-bian. She merely speaks of "solemnly confronting the issue." Also, Chen Shui-bian opposes ECFA. Tsai Ing-wen however, has refused to take a clear stand on ECFA. In response to such questions, she is nowhere as consistent in her words and deeds as Yingluck Shinawatra. Therefore she bears scant resemblance to Yingluck Shinawatra.

Chen Shui-bian posed two major questions. He was of course, making a calculated, Machiavellian political move. But these are two questions Tsai Ing-wen must face. On terminating ECFA, Tsai has no desire to alarm Chen Shui-bian. According to Chen Shui-bian, if Tsai is elected, Beijing may well invoke the ECFA termination clause. If it does, will Tsai still support ECFA? Or will she preempt by terminating ECFA first? Tsai Ing-wen has no answer. Regarding a presidential pardon, Chen Shui-bian is even less likely to back off. He thinks Tsai Ing-wen should make a clear yes or no declaration before the election. She should ask voters to act as witnesses and support her decision. If Tsai does not answer these two questions before the election, but is elected, these two issues will become a nightmare for everyone on Taiwan.

Tsai Ing-wen finds herself on the horns of a dilemma. Her situation is a little like Yingluck Shinawatra's, but not entirely. For Tsai, "Is she or isn't she like Yingluck Shinawatra?" is an embarrassing question. Yingluck Shinawatra won because she talked the talk, and walked the walk. Voters backed her all the way. But if an ersatz Yingluck Shinawatra says one thing but does another, if she tries to pull the wool over the voters' eyes and muddle through, the result may be very different. Can Tsai Ing-wen become another Yingluck Shinawatra? That depends on whether Taiwan is another Thailand. That depends on whether voters on Taiwan are like voters in Thailand.

Chen Shui-bian wants Tsai Ing-wen to confront the issues, to force her to tell him where she stands. This is what most voters want as well.

蔡英文必須回答陳水扁
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.07.23
陳水扁公開提出兩個問題，等待蔡英文回答。

第一個問題是：蔡英文若當選總統，會不會對陳水扁特赦？陳水扁在名為〈代兄出征的盈拉贏了〉的文章中指出，泰國前總理塔信因案出亡國外，其妹盈拉在國會選舉代兄出征，未與塔信切割，且肯定並宣揚塔信的政績，又公開主張「特赦被定罪的政治犯」，因此贏得大選而出任總理。陳水扁以此諷勸蔡英文不要與他切割，「切割的結果只有落選」。陳水扁說，盈拉從來不否認自己是「塔信的複製品」，因此蔡英文也應以「複製盈拉經驗」自期。說了這一大套，陳水扁的問題其實是：蔡英文要不要特赦陳水扁？

第二個問題是：蔡英文為何不直接宣示若當選將廢止ＥＣＦＡ？陳水扁說，台灣主體意識及國家認同、甚至ＥＣＦＡ終止條款都是迴避不了的問題；此話當然是指蔡英文正在迴避這些問題，陳水扁則認為必須「正面迎戰」、「主導議題、主動出擊」。依陳水扁及陳致中先後發表的看法，蔡英文如當選後，若不是由北京主動啟動ＥＣＦＡ終止條款，即應由「蔡總統」主動啟動。所以，陳水扁說，ＥＣＦＡ終止條款，不論在北京或在民進黨，皆是迴避不了的問題。說了這一大套，陳水扁的問題無非是：蔡英文為何不直接宣告若當選將廢止ＥＣＦＡ？

是否特赦陳水扁？是否廢止ＥＣＦＡ？這正是多數國人想對蔡英文提出的問題，如今由陳水扁發問，自是更具張力；對這兩個問題，蔡英文不應再迴避，恐也不容她迴避。

陳水扁的這個大動作，出人意表。照理說，正當蔡英文在內外肆應上已陷焦頭爛額的境況，陳水扁為減輕蔡英文的負擔，自應少向駱駝背上堆稻草，一切待蔡英文若順利當選後再說。然而，陳水扁卻偏偏在這兵荒馬亂之際，提出這兩個對蔡英文的選情有重大影響的問題，豈非哪壺不開提哪壺？

可能有兩種原因：一、陳水扁估計綠營群眾在ＥＣＦＡ及特赦問題上，均有強烈主張，蔡若不回應這些群眾，炒不起熱情。二、陳水扁必須在選前逼蔡英文表態，一方面以選舉見證蔡的承諾，另一方面也可藉選舉為蔡的承諾背書，如此則蔡在若當選後即有履踐諾言的必然性與正當性。

然而，蔡英文對這兩個問題，仍是支支吾吾。特不特赦陳水扁？答案仍是「這是一個嚴肅的問題」，「這是一個整個台灣都得共同思考的問題」，這算是什麼答案？至於ＥＣＦＡ終止條款，一下子說「傾中賣台、喪權辱國」，一下子說「公投是一個選項」，一下子說「不排除立院重審」，一下子說「若執政將延續前朝兩岸政策」，這又算是什麼答案？

蔡英文是不是「盈拉」？以現狀看來，「扁李謝辜獨」都挾持了蔡英文，而蔡英文連「南部認為政治追殺兩位台灣人的總統」都說出來了，難道還不算挺？難道還不是「盈拉」？但是蔡英文畢竟沒有大力宣揚扁政府八年政績，反而口口聲聲「Taiwan Next」，「把未來扛起來」；亦未公開主張特赦陳水扁，只說「嚴肅面對」。再者，陳水扁反ＥＣＦＡ，蔡英文則拒不表態。這些都不如「盈拉」那般心口如一，因此不太像「盈拉」。

陳水扁的兩個大哉問，當然有其政治操作的權謀，但也呈現了兩個蔡英文必須正視的課題。關於ＥＣＦＡ終止條款的問題，當非陳水扁危言聳聽；依陳水扁的看法，蔡若當選，北京即可能啟動終止條款，屆時蔡要不要延續ＥＣＦＡ，或先發制人主動終止，蔡英文當然不能不給個答案。至於特赦的問題，陳水扁更不可能鬆手；蔡英文也應在選季作出是或否的宣示，請選民見證及背書。蔡若不在選前回答這兩個問題，她若當選，這兩個問題將成整個台灣的噩夢。

有一點「盈拉」，但又不全是「盈拉」；這種「真假盈拉」的尷尬，正是蔡英文的困境。真盈拉的勝出，勝在心口如一，選民為她背書；假盈拉若欲用心口不一來欺世媚俗，矇混過關，可能有完全相反的結局。因為，蔡英文能不能當盈拉，要看台灣是不是泰國，台灣的選民是不是泰國的選民？

陳水扁要蔡英文勿迴避，把話說清楚，這也正是多數選民的期望。