Tsai Ing-wen Not Even Secure as Party Chairman: How Can She Run for President?

Tsai Ing-wen Not Even Secure as Party Chairman: How Can She Run for President?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 14, 2011

The roster of DPP nominees for legislator without portfolio has touched off a firestorm. Given the heat on Tsai Ing-wen at the moment, she is not even secure in her role as DPP chairman. In which case, how can she possibly take on the role of Republic of China president?

Tsai Ing-wen is in a pickle. Her television ad shows her ambling serenely through the streets of London, soaking in the atmosphere. It is totally at odds with her current plight. Her comrades in the party apparently consider her proclamation that "I am Taiwanese, I am Tsai Ing-wen" a tired cliche. A naked power struggle has erupted within the party, ignited by the roster of DPP nominees for legislator without portfolio.

Taiwan independence hardliners vehemently object to the current roster of DPP nominees. These hardliners include Wang Hsing-nan, Trong Chai, Tsai Yu-chuan, and Chen Shui-bian, who recently joined the fray. Tsai Ing-wen placed Wang Hsing-nan and Trong Chai at the bottom of the list, because they are aging Taiwan independence hardliners. Wang Hsing-nan was the chief suspect in the Hsieh Tung-min letter bomb case. Trong Chai is the perennial "Referendum Chai." Chai quite naturally thinks Tsai is attempting to burn his Taiwan independence bridges even before he has had a chance to cross them. These hardliners have criticized this roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio on numerous grounds. They say Cheng Shu-hua is a "counterfeit labor representative." They say Ker Chen-ming is guilty of misconduct. They say Hsiao Bi-khim and Cheng Li-chung are the chairman's obedient minions. They say the young and middle aged elites nominated have done nothing to deserve their inclusion on the roster. Tsai Yu-chuan even complained about people "sleeping with other men's wives." In other words, they consider the roster of nominees completely unjust. They feel it has elbowed aside these epoch-making Taiwan independence elders. Therefore they cannot possibly tolerate this outrage. Chen Shui-bian, who is new to the fray, pointed out the problem. He characterized the current roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio as "factions divvying up the spoils." He said "the chairman's minions should not be grabbing seats for themselves." He said Tsai Ing-wen should explicitly express opposition to ECFA. Otherwise, the TSU may draw away 5% of the party's vote.

Therefore, the controversy over the roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio, has become a knotted mess involving squabbling over spoils and disputes over the party's direction. Often what appears to be squabbling over spoils, turns out to be disputes over the party's direction. Conversely, what appears to be disputes over the party's direction, often turns out to be squabbling over spoils. Party members originally assumed that such squabbles and disputes could be postponed until after Tsai Ing-wen was elected. But the roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio provoked unexpected discontent. This open gun battle may subside temporarily as election fever mounts. But once the election is over, it will erupt once again. If Tsai wins her bid for the presidency, she faces more serious squabbles and disputes. If Tsai loses her bid for the presidency, the prospects are even more daunting.

What led to this situation? Tsai Ing-wen and many DPP insiders assumed they could set aside factional squabbles and disputes over the party's direction until after the election. But when Tsai Ing-wen was handed total control of the nomination process, she revealed her nepotist proclivities. She elbowed aside "aging hardliners." She brought back the Machievellian Ker Chien-ming. These were all precursors of post-election internecine struggles. On the one hand, Tsai Ing-wen attempted to rally Taiwan independence hardliners with her ringing proclamation that "I am Taiwanese." On the other hand, she purged Taiwan independence hardliners from the roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio. In the eyes of "aging hardliners" Wang Hsing-nan, Trong Chai, and Tsai Yu-chuan, this was intolerable. This was comparable to her acceptance of the 18% preferential interest rate for civil service employees, even as she denounced it.

Tsai Ing-wen wants first to be elected president, then to come back and resolve the power struggle and ideological struggle within the party. But the roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio turned out to be a Pandora's Box. For the good of the nation and the good of society, Tsai Ing-wen should first resolve the power struggle within the DPP. She should first unify the DPP, and broker an agreement on the party's direction. Only then should she run for President of the Republic of China. Otherwise, Tsai Ing-wen will be cradling a time bomb in her arms, one that could explode at any moment, while she runs for the nation's highest office. The entire nation would be dragged into DPP's messy power struggle. How can moderate voters possible tolerate that?

Ker Chien-ming held a press conference. He criticized Wang Hsing-nan and Trong Chai, saying that "Even the CCP's Central China Television Network would never attack their own comrades in such a manner." Wang Hsing-nan meanwhile demanded that the party leadership "keep dirty secrets" and "undermine the foundations of the party." One side railed against abscesses. The other side railed against filth. Both sides drew blood. Tsai Ing-wen must broker a peace within the party prior to the election. She must resolve the power struggle within the DPP. She must unify the DPP and broker an agreement on the party's direction. If no resolution is reached before the election, it will make no difference whether she wins or loses. The situation will become intolerable. For example, Chen Shui-bian has already stepped forward and taken a stand against ECFA. Can Tsai Ing-wen wait until after the election to respond?

Tsai Ing-wen's strategy is to deceive both sides, to deceive both moderate voters and DPP members regarding the party's direction. The roster of nominees for legislator without portfolio testifies to that. Tsai Ing-wen may be able to deceive moderate voters. But given her modest political momentum, she cannot possibly deceive the DPP about the party's direction. Nor can she hope to deceive Taiwan independence hardliners. She cannot benefit from the 18% preferential interest rate, even as she denounces it. If Tsai Ing-wen cannot even broker a peace within her own party over the allocation of power and the party's direction, how can she possibly become President of the Republic of China?

Tsai Ing-wen, are you really prepared?

黨主席鎮不住，蔡英文如何做總統？
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.07.14

民進黨不分區立委名單引爆的超級風暴顯示：以蔡英文現在的政治火候，連做民進黨主席都鎮不住陣腳，她如何能出任領導全民的中華民國總統？

蔡英文今日的處境，與競選電視廣告上那種抱著瓶裝水在倫敦逛大街的氛圍，已是形同天壤雲泥；黨內似乎皆將「我是台灣人，我是蔡英文」視作陳腔濫調，一場赤裸裸的黨內權力及路線鬥爭，則因不分區立委名單的公布而引爆。

對這一份名單持強烈異議者皆是獨派，包括王幸男、蔡同榮、蔡有全，及剛加入戰局的陳水扁。蔡英文把王幸男、蔡同榮等排出及殿後不分區名單，是因二人「老又獨」；而王幸男是謝東閔郵包炸彈案的主角，蔡同榮更是「永遠的蔡公投」，自然認為蔡竟然還未過河就想先拆掉他們這幾張台獨橋板。他們對不分區名單的批評是：鄭素華是「假勞工」、柯建銘無行失德，蕭美琴及鄭麗君則是國王人馬，另有青壯菁英因怯戰而欲不勞而獲不分區席次，蔡有全甚至指名單上有「睡人妻者」；換句話說，他們認為，以這張他們看來完全不公不義的名單，竟要擠掉他們幾個為民進黨開天闢地的台獨元勳，豈能令人甘服？新加入戰局的陳水扁更點出了問題的關鍵，他將這次不分區提名定調為「派系分贓」；一方面說「主席人馬不應跟著搶」，另一方面更指蔡英文應明白表態反對ＥＣＦＡ，否則台聯可能藉題搶走五%政黨票。

所以，這次不分區名單的爭議，順理成章地將「權力分贓」與「路線鬥爭」幾股麻線交纏成一條巨繩，難分難解。表面看似權力分贓，底子卻是路線鬥爭；又或表面看似路線鬥爭，底子卻是權力分贓。原本以為，這種「權力分贓」與「路線鬥爭」的火拼場面，可以延後到蔡英文若當選才引爆，但這張不分區名單卻使引信提前著火。這個火拼場面雖然稍後或許會因選情升高而隱伏一陣子，但已可預見在選後必將再度大爆發。蔡若當選總統，必將面對更嚴峻的「權力分贓」與「路線鬥爭」的壓力；蔡若落選，則場面將更不堪想像。

為何形成今日局面？主要原因是蔡英文與民進黨內各種勢力原本認為：先對外打贏選戰，至於黨內的權力及路線鬥爭，留待選後再說。但是，蔡英文在她擁有百分之百提名權的不分區名單中，提前暴露了分封身邊親私，排除「老又獨」，及重用以「政治技術」見長的柯建銘，此中皆見為選後黨內鬥爭預作鋪墊的痕跡。然而，蔡英文一面張舉「我是台灣人」的獨派號召，另一面卻在不分區名單上「掃獨」的動作，看在王幸男、蔡同榮及蔡有全等「老又獨」的眼中，是可忍，孰不可忍？這不是形同拿十八%，又猛打十八%？

蔡英文當然想「先當選總統，再來收拾黨內的權力及路線鬥爭」，這張不分區名單卻提前打開了潘朵拉魔盒。但為國家社會計，蔡英文自然應當先擺平了民進黨內的權力爭奪，及先整合了民進黨內的路線鬥爭，進而再競選中華民國總統；不然，蔡英文若要抱著民進黨這一顆權力及路線鬥爭的不定時炸彈出任中華民國總統，屆時將整個國家捲入民進黨的腥臭內鬥之中，中間選民豈能同意？

目前的情勢是，柯建銘開記者會，指王幸男蔡同榮等「中共中央電視台也不可能這樣鬥爭自己同志」；王幸男則挑著扁擔，指黨中央「不要藏汙納垢」，「動搖黨本」。這廂要擠掉膿瘡，那廂說齷齪至極；刀刀見骨，斧斧斷筋。蔡英文若在選前不把民進黨的權力及路線鬥爭擺平，拖到選後，不論她當選或落選，皆將是一個不堪收拾的可怕局面。例如，陳水扁已出面要蔡英文表態反對ＥＣＦＡ，蔡英文難道能拖到選後再回答？

蔡英文如今的策略可謂是「兩邊騙」，一邊騙中間選民，一邊騙權力路線駁雜的民進黨。但不分區名單引發的風暴顯示：蔡英文欲騙中間選民尚有可能；但以她這一點點的政治火候，不可能騙倒權力路線駁雜的民進黨，更勿妄想以「拿十八%，打十八%」的手法玩弄獨派。而蔡英文若連民進黨內的權力及路線鬥爭都鎮不住，她如何出任中華民國總統？

蔡英文，妳準備好了嗎？