Vision Can Overcome the Three Great Obstacles

Vision Can Overcome the Three Great Obstacles
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 26, 2012

Summary: Former Vice President Siew said Taiwan's economy faces "Three Major Obstacles." He told summit panelists we must overcome these three obstacles. The summit arrived at three main insights. One. We must confront the powerful waves battering us. We must have crisis consciousness. Two. We must end the internal friction between the ruling and opposition parties. Three. We must seize the opportunity, and take "sword and sandal" type action!

Full Text below:

Yesterday the "Two Critical Years: Blazing a Trail for Taiwan's Economy" economic summit convened. Former Vice President Vincent Siew, the summit moderator, spoke and exchanged views with the panelists. He expressed anxiety over Taiwan's lack of economic growth. He revealed a feeling of urgency over the lack of innovation and change. He said he shared the same crisis consciousness as the other panelists, and the same desire to turn the tide.

Former Vice President Siew spoke of the "Three Mosts." He said Taiwan's economy faces "Three Major Obstacles." He offered a heartfelt reminder to summit panelists regarding Taiwan's political and economic future. He said powerful waves were buffeting Taiwan. He feared we were distracted by unnecessary internal friction, and might miss a crucial opportunity.

The "First Most" was the powerful waves that were buffeting Taiwan head on. Even President Ma did not mince words. He spoke of Taiwan's free trade agreements (FTAs) lagging behind South Korea's. He said we were not merely behind, but far behind. Taiwan faces serious economic difficulties. This was the independent conclusion reached by every panelist who spoke yesterday. Former Vice President Siew used a relatively mild term, "powerful waves." The summit used the term, "challenges." But to be perfectly blunt, the correct term is "crisis."

Panelists spoke of their shared crisis consciousness. They spoke of university graduates making less than they did thirteen years ago. They spoke of uncertain industrial policy, an aging population, a shortage of skilled labor, an out of balance educational policy, and Taiwan's potential marginalization. This is clearly a "perfect storm" in the making. How can people not be worried?

The "Second Most" is unnecessary internal friction. Yesterday summit panelists spoke, almost to a man, about "internal friction" and "wheel-spinning." Former Vice President Siew pointed to significant friction in three areas. One. Many government agencies lack crisis consciousness. This leads to procrastination in decision-making and coping. Two. Unfairness and injustice have undermined trust between the government and business. Three. Ruling vs. opposition party battles have mired Taiwan in a vicious cycle. This may be the most pertinent and exhaustive understanding of "internal friction." The first two are the government's responsibility. The third is the responsibility of the ruling and opposition parties. This should give those in office pause. Clearly decision-making delays and blocked communications between government and business are sources of "unnecessary friction." Ruling government ineptitude has led to unnecessary wear and tear.

For several panelists, internal frictions were their prime concern. They pointed mainly to political rivalry between the ruling Blue and opposition Green parties. Former Vice President Siew pointed to this as well. Morris Chang feels that the Blue and Green parties must at least reach a consensus on cross-Strait policy and Taipei/Washington policy. He pointed out that in the United States, the two major parties generally agree on foreign policy.

Vicious infighting between Blue vs. Green permeates Taiwan. It extends from national and constitutional allegiance to U.S. beef imports. Its battelfield is the Legislative Yuan. It divides society. It paralyzes national policymaking. As a result many directly identified the Legislative Yuan as the source of "internal friction." Clearly internal friction has become a serious burden on the nation and society.

Former Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Hong Chi-chang zeroed in on "internal friction." His remarks echoed those of most panelists. He said Taiwan cannot afford internal friction. The two parties must end their confrontation and conflict, and replace it with dialogue. The ruling party must be a competent ruling party. The opposition party must be a loyal, rational, and responsible opposition party. Hong Chi-chang's remarks were greeted with unanimous applause.

The "Third Most" is the crucial opportunity that must not be missed. Democratization has many side effects. One is that differences of opinion make consensus difficult. Economic and industrial decision-making is often difficult. It often leads to waffling. We must not allow important opportunities to slip through our fingers. We must not allow each stage of economic development to go from bad to worse. Tomorrow must not be worse than today.

Yesterday when President Ma addressed the summit he stressed his "Golden Decade." But industry elder Morris Chang changed it to "Bronze Decade." Golden and Bronze clearly do not have the same value. Morris Chang's remarks were not intended to undermine self-confidence on Taiwan. They were his attempt to set forth a more realistic and reasonable goal. To posit an ideal they can realistically achieve. Indeed, after the "lost decade" the notion of a "golden decade" seems a tad like wishful thinking. But even a "bronze decade" can shine with a little joint effort. Therefore a less flashy "bronze decade" with its own unique charm is well worth pursuing.

Globalization has led to a dramatic shortening in the life cycle of industry. We must seize the opportunity to make the right choices. This will be the acid test for both government and business. The government may deviate slightly from its target or adopt improper methods. Such mistakes could result in massive waste or industrial stagnation. The Chen regime's "Two Trillion Dollars, Twin Star" policy was one example. In ten short years, a shining dream became the death knell of the DRAM and TFT/LCD industries. Two hundred billion dollars were lost each year, and no one knew how to respond. By contrast, the Ma administration's "golden decade," three industries/four modernizations, and free market island initiatives may sound impressive. But the lack of specifics or a program of action renders them hollow in people's eyes. The Chen regime's reckless overspending and the Ma administration's heavy-handedness are both perceived as reasons for our lost opportunities. It is time to batten down the hatches.

During yesterday's summit, the government and academia expressed anxiety over the pace of economic development. But no one was pessimistic about industry competitiveness, Everyone was confident that Taiwan enterprises were tough and resilient, that they had the ability to compete in world market. The vast majority believe Taiwan must remain economically open, that it must confront global competition. But they also think we must make shrewder use of economic opening as a policy tool. We should comply with the principles of free trade and reciprocity. But we must not impose excessive shocks on domestic industry. We must also stimulate domestic industry to ensure its competitiveness. This knowledge will help the executive and legislative branches in their decision-making and legislation.

We must overcome these "three obstacles." We must begin the "vision project." The summit arrived at three main insights. One. We must confront the powerful waves battering us. We must have crisis consciousness. Two. We must end the internal friction between the ruling and opposition parties. Three. We must seize the opportunity, and take "sword and sandal" type action!

克服「三大關卡」 啟動「願景工程」
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.06.26 03:13 am

昨日《關鍵兩年‧為台灣經濟開路》高峰會，在會場的發言及互動，充溢著大會總主持人前副總統蕭萬長先生所說的，對台灣經濟發展憂心忡忡的焦慮感，及求新求變的急迫感之外，還有一種氛圍，那就是與會者皆展現了同赴艱危、共挽狂瀾的使命感。

蕭前副總統的「三個最」，指出了台灣經濟面對的「三大關卡」，成為這場高峰會對台灣政經出路繞樑不去的殷切叮嚀，那就是：最持久的強浪迎面襲來，最無謂的內耗正在發生，最關鍵的機會不容錯失！

第一最，最持久的強浪迎面襲來。台灣當前正面臨「強浪」來襲，連馬總統也不諱言；比如，當他談到台灣在「自由貿易協議」（FTA）方面落後韓國，差人家不是「普通的遠」，而是「很遠」。而台灣正面臨嚴重的經濟困局，儼然是所有與談者昨日在走進會場前不約而同已形成的第一個「共識」；蕭前副總統選用了「強浪」這個含蓄的詞彙，大會的用語則是「挑戰」，直白地說，其實就是「危機」。

與會者的危機感其實有明顯的交集，從大學畢業生較十三年前薪水不升反降，至產業政策不確定、人口老化、人才質量不足、教育政策失衡，到台灣會不會邊緣化；這儼然是一波「複合式的危機」，能不教人憂心忡忡？

第二最，最無謂的內耗正在發生。昨日在與談者的口中，經常聽到「內耗」「空轉」這兩個詞，幾乎是異口同聲。蕭前副總統指出，最顯著的「內耗」有三方面，包括：一、各部門危機意識不足，延誤決策及因應；二、公平正義迷思重創政府與企業信賴關係；三、朝野惡鬥讓台灣陷於空轉惡性循環。這應是對「內耗」最中肯且周延的詮釋，前兩項指向政府的責任，第三項則指朝野惡鬥。此一詮釋，應可促使主政者深思，可見決策的遲誤及政府與企業之間溝通的阻塞，皆是形成「無謂內耗」的原因；社會因主政者的失能，而付出無謂的損耗。

然而，「內耗」之所以成為多位與談者關注的焦點，主要是指朝野藍綠政黨的惡鬥，蕭前副總統也指出了此點。例如，張忠謀先生認為，今日藍綠兩黨，至少應在兩岸政策及台美政策上尋求共識；他指出，美國的兩黨即在外交政策上大多採同一立場，一致對外。

台灣的「藍綠惡鬥」，可自國憲認同鬥到美國牛肉，且以立法院為惡鬥的場域，非但撕裂社會，有時簡直使國政癱瘓。因而，多位與談者直接將立法院指為「內耗」的根源，儼然已成國家社會難以承負之重。

在「內耗」的話題下，民進黨前立委洪奇昌成為焦點；他的一番話，似乎表達了多數與會者的心聲。他說：台灣沒有內耗的本錢，兩黨應結束對立、對抗，改為對話；執政黨應是有主政能力的執政黨，反對黨則應是理性負責的忠誠反對黨。洪奇昌語畢，響起滿堂掌聲。

第三最，台灣最關鍵的機會不容錯失。民主化帶來的副作用之一，是意見分歧而共識凝聚不易，經濟及產業發展決策往往取捨難決或搖擺不定，就在拉鋸之間，台灣便一再坐失大好機會，而在每個階段所面對的經濟機遇，遂有每下愈況、一蟹不如一蟹的趨勢。

也因此，昨天馬總統在峰會上致詞強調「黃金十年」的施政主軸，企業界大老張忠謀卻以「黃銅十年」一詞為他作了修整。「黃金」與「黃銅」，兩者價值自有差距。但張忠謀的談話，並非要挫折台灣人的自信，而是試圖提出一個比較務實、合理的目標，讓人們覺得這是可以追逐及實現的理想。確實，在經歷「失落的十年」後，「黃金十年」的提法恐怕稍嫌浮誇；但即便是「黃銅」，若能共同努力擦拭拋光，也能透出沉厚的光澤；那麼，一個不華麗、卻結構與風韻別具的「黃銅十年」，又何嘗不值得追逐？

在全球化變動劇烈而產業生命周期日漸縮短的情況下，如何把握有效時機做出正確的選擇，對於政府及企業都是嚴苛的考驗。尤其政府，目標稍一偏差或手段選取不當，就會導致可怕的浪費或使產業集體陷入泥沼。以扁政府的「兩兆雙星」政策為例，不過短短十年，一場華麗的大夢卻變成了雙Ｄ產業的幻滅，年虧兩千億元還不知如何收場。反觀馬政府推出的黃金十年、三業四化、自由經濟島等口號，表面看似架構宏偉，卻缺乏具體的內容和行動方案；在民眾眼裡，不免顯得空泛。扁政府的魯莽揮霍，與馬政府的行動力不足，都是失機僨事的原因，這是該上緊發條的時候了。

昨天的高峰會上，雖然產官學界均對台灣經濟發展腳步凌亂感到焦慮，但大家對產業界的競爭實力卻不悲觀，都深信以台灣企業長期打下的體質和韌性，有雄厚的本錢在世界一搏。絕大多數人也都主張台灣應該持續保持開放，以迎戰全球化的競爭；但開放作為一種政策工具，應該作更聰明的運用，一方面要符合貿易自由及互惠原則，一方面不造成過度衝擊，另一方面又可刺激國內產業提升體質。這樣的認知，可供行政及立法部門在決策及立法時的重要指標。

如何克服這「三大關卡」，以啟動「願景工程」，歸納高峰會的主體見解：一、迎對強浪，要有危機感；二、結束內耗，應停止朝野惡鬥；三、把握關鍵機會，要有劍及履及的行動！