A Political Year: The Key is Ma Xi Meeting

A Political Year: The Key is Ma Xi Meeting
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
February 6, 2014

Summary: For Taiwan, this is a political year. It is a year in which political power and policy direction will be redefined. For the past eight years, cross-strait relations have become increasingly friendly. Signs of reform within the DPP have surfaced. This year is a rare opportunity to redefine cross-strait relations. But will the opportunity be lost? That depends on joint efforts on both sides. The key is a Ma Xi meeting.

Full text below:

This year is a political year. On the 11th of this month, Wang Yu-chi visited the Mainland. In May, the DPP will hold its party chairmanship election. At the end of the year, the government will hold the "seven in one elections." In the lead up to these elections, the most suspenseful event will be the Ma Xi meeting.

This string of political events points to the 2016 general election. The core issue, as always, remains cross-strait relations. Wang Yu-chi visited the Mainland. Will the two sides' cross-strait affairs directors address each other by their official titles? If they do, this may lead to a increased openness, both in rhetoric and in practice. This may pave the way for an end of year Ma Xi meeting. But if the "three taboos" prevail, the Ma Xi meeting may not happen. The DPP will hold its party chairmanship elections in May. The election campaign may be fought over cross-strait policy. It may affect the political climate during the "seven in one elections" and the 2016 general election. This of course pertains only to the Taiwan side. News relating to the Ma Xi meeting in October will determine the final impact of these events.

If a Ma Xi meeting can be held it will at the very least reduce the suffering and torment endured by the two sides over the past decade or two. Alas, the the likelihood of a Ma Xi meeting is fading. Many political issues will arise this year. They include the DPP chairmanship election and the "seven in one elections." All signs point to 2016, and a clash over the central government political authority and the nation's political path. Cross-strait policy has a major influence on the ROC's political path. Therefore a Ma Xi meeting will have a profound impact on everything above, and ultimately the 2016 general election and post-election cross strait relations.

If a Ma Xi meeting can be arranged, it will show that the two sides can accept "economic leaders" and "leaders from the two sides" as forms of address. It will show that significant progress has been made on the cross-strait rhetoric concerning sovereignty and jurisdiction. We can now look forward to some sort of "Peace Declaration." Perhaps this is the Xi Jinping policy team's way of tolerating and guiding Taiwan polices, instead of suppressing and stifling it. If so, it is good for both sides. Can a Ma Xi meeting lower the threshold for cross-strait relations? Can it do so in a manner acceptable to the public on Taiwan? If it can, it will compel the DPP to reform its cross-strait policy. It will positively impact the 2016 general election and cross-strait relations after the election. In other words, as long Ma and Xi set the tone for cross-strait policy, they can minimize the impact of the 2016 general election on cross-strait relations. Then no matter who is elected president, he or she will not be able to turn back the clock. He or she will be able to carry on the good work of the Ma Xi meeting.

Conversely, if the Ma Xi meeting fails to materialize, the Ma administration gesture will be interpreted as a failure, and a rejection by the Mainland. It will be seen as a lack of creativity and goodwill on the part of Beijing. It will deny the DPP a necessary stimulus for reform. If everything is postponed until after the 2016 general election, who knows what the consequences might be?

The end of year APEC meeting to be held at Beijing's Yanqi Lake is a prime opportunity for leaders from the two sides to meet. The two sides are irresolute and afraid to act. The real barriers are not external and objective, but internal and psychological. If these psychological barriers are not removed, we might endure a decade or two of trials and tribulation before any breakthrough. Even then, a breakthrough might be in doubt. What price would we be forced to pay? Conversely, convening a Ma Xi meeting could clear away these psychological barriers in one fell swoop. It could spare the two sides a decade or two of trials and tribulations.

The likelihood of another opportunity for a Ma Xi meeting is remote. This is a consensus shared by those in the know, on both sides of the issue. When Hong Kong was retroceded, everyone in the know knew that "one country, one system" was unacceptable. Beijing could never have persuaded the public in Hong Kong, the Mainland, and the rest of the world to accept it. Only Deng Xiaoping was able to shrug off subjective psychological barriers, and use "one country, two systems" to cut the Gordian Knot. Everyone knows that another opportunity for an historic Ma Xi meeting is unlikely. Such a meeting is the way to diminish a decade or two of cross-strait suffering. But do we have someone of the caliber of Deng Xiaoping, able to write history? Do we have someone not mired in dogma and hobbled by psychological barriers?

The Ma administration has labored for six long years. It now stands on the threshold of a Ma Xi meeting. If such a meeting fails to materialize, it will be an historical tragedy. The DPP has already announced that it "does not oppose a Ma Xi meeting." Clearly it realizes that such a meeting would have a major impact on the 2016 general election and future cross-strait relations. Therefore both the Blue and Green camps should attempt to make such a meeting a reality. Beijing in particular must not miss this unique opportunity. It must seize the moment to ride the wave. It would be doing more than giving Taiwan a chance. It would also be giving Beijing a chance to improve the cross-strait policy environment. During a Ma Xi meeting Beijing must accomodate Taipei. If it does not, it will merely hobble itself. If Deng Xiaoping were alive, he would not let this historic opportunity slip through his fingers.

For Taiwan, this is a political year. It is a year in which political power and policy direction will be redefined. For the past eight years, cross-strait relations have become increasingly friendly. Signs of reform within the DPP have surfaced. This year is a rare opportunity to redefine cross-strait relations. But will the opportunity be lost? That depends on joint efforts on both sides. The key is a Ma Xi meeting.
 
政治年：關鍵在有無馬習會
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.02.06 03:19 am

今年是政治年，本月十一日王郁琦訪問大陸，五月民進黨主席選舉，年底七合一選舉，選前的最大懸念則是有無馬習會。

這一連串政治節目，皆指向二○一六大選，而仍以兩岸關係為主軸。王郁琦登陸的觀察要點是，雙方的兩岸事務首長若互稱官銜，希望能引導出較開明的政治論述與實踐，並因而能促成年底的馬習會；但是，倘若真有所謂的「三個不能說」，此氛圍就可能預示馬習會將告落空。接著，五月民進黨黨主席選舉，兩岸政策可能成為競爭焦點，並將會影響七合一選舉的政治氛圍，且進而影響二○一六的大選。但以上這些皆是台灣單方面的政治節目，十月前後關於有無馬習會的確訊，將決定這些節目的最後效應。

馬習會若能舉行，至少可以減少兩岸雙方十年甚至二十年的磨難與折騰；但跡象顯示，馬習會成功的可能性已愈來愈低。在今年的政治課題裡，民進黨黨主席選舉及七合一選舉，皆將左右二○一六年的國家中樞權力歸屬及路線指向；而由於兩岸政策是影響台灣政策路線的主要元素，所以，有無馬習會，必會影響這些政治節目的如何進行，並深刻影響到這些政治節目的現實效應，最後更將影響二○一六大選及選後的兩岸關係。

如果馬習會告成，顯示雙方可能接受了「經濟領袖」及「兩岸領導人」的稱謂，這顯示雙方在「主權論述／治權論述」上已獲重大進展，並可望提出一個「和平宣言」之類的文告。倘係如此，或許可解讀為習近平團隊的對台政策將採「包容／引導」的方式，而非「壓迫／窒息」的手法，這對兩岸皆是好事。接著，如果馬習會能建構起受到台灣民意接受的兩岸關係新門檻，必可牽動民進黨在兩岸政策上的轉型，這對二○一六大選及選後的兩岸關係應當皆具正面的影響。也就是說，只要兩岸政策經由馬習會定了調，即可將兩岸關係受到二○一六大選的影響降低；屆時無論誰當選下屆總統，皆不致造成大局的倒退或翻覆，而皆能在馬習會的成果上繼續發展下去。

反之，倘若各方殷望的馬習會落了空，將會被視為馬政府的折衝失敗，亦會被視為北京的兩岸方略缺乏創意與善意，而民進黨也失去了轉型的重大指標。一切若皆要等到二○一六大選及選後再來收拾，那麼不測的變數就多了。

年底北京雁棲湖ＡＰＥＣ，是兩岸領導人會面的不二機遇；如今雙方仍見猶豫不決，與其說是由於現實上的障礙，不如說是心理上的障礙。倘若心障不除，或許要花十年、二十年的磨難來破解，卻還不知能否達成，及要付出多少代價；但是，只要回過頭來，逕以舉行馬習會的實際行動一舉破除心理障礙，或許就能省去兩岸十年甚至二十年的磨難與折騰。

馬習會的良機難再，這是任何對兩岸問題有真知灼見者的共同見解。當年香港回歸，任何有真知灼見者亦均知絕不可實行「一國一制」，否則將無以對香港人民、大陸人民及世界輿論；當時，唯有鄧小平能不困於主觀的心障，用「一國兩制」來回答了歷史的考卷。由此可見，即使人人皆知馬習會是良機難再的歷史機遇，亦是必可減少兩岸十年、二十年磨難的正確決策，但問題是：今日有沒有不困於教條與心障而能開創歷史的「鄧小平」？

對馬政府來說，六年的辛苦經營，現在站在距馬習會只差臨門一腳之地，若不成，將是歷史憾事。對民進黨言，則已放出「不反對馬習會」的說法，可見深知此會對二○一六與兩岸未來局勢皆有重大關係。因此，藍綠兩黨皆應當努力促成此事。至於北京，尤不應錯失此一「借題發揮／順水推舟」的不二機遇；因為，這不只是給台灣機會，更能為自己開出一個兩岸政策的新境。在馬習會上，北京若不容讓台灣，其實也是捆綁了自己。鄧小平倘在人間，應不會讓這個能減少幾十年兩岸磨難的良機在指縫流失。

今年是台灣的政治年，也是政治權力歸屬及政策路線指向再定位的一年。八年來積澱的兩岸友善條件，及民進黨內轉型的徵兆畢現，皆可證今年是重新設定兩岸關係的難得時會。但這個時會能否保全，須賴兩岸的共同努力，其關鍵則在有無馬習會。